2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation

[Revived]

Anyone else find the game thread data thing to be annoying at the top of the page on realgm? Looks like a new addition but I can’t figure out a way to disable it. I can see the benefit in it but it also serves as a spoiler.

Looks like you can hide it with Adblock - haven't done it yet, but you can choose to select the area (at least on the main forum page).

Assume Revived means Scoreboard thing at top and not game thread.....

Click your username in top right, click profile, then click "Edit Profile", go to the bottom and you can remove live scores...and also remove wiretaps if you want.

Yup that’s what I meant. Perfect, thank you!

[lilfishi22]

What's to stop some team from offering him a 2 yr deal with a player option for the 3rd? Allowing him to hit UFA that much earlier.

If I was another team that's what I'd do. Force us to match and just make a play on him in 2 yrs-when Phoenix would be unable to do anything about it.

Wouldn't opposing teams that have worked to clear space to offer him max money want more certainty in their acquisition than 2 years?

The thinking is that the opposing team would be doing this with the future in mind. Just get us to match a short deal so that he can hit UFA earlier. In other words, they have no plan to actually sign him to the deal-its just to force us to match it.

The team with the max space have to commit that cap space to Ayton for that 48hrs matching period I believe. They can't have max space and send it to every max level guy and hope they have a handful of accepted deals to choose from. I could be wrong but that would take them out of the running for other more available FA/RFA's and trades that would use cap space. As we've seen, a lot can happen in 2 days in free agency and it could be the difference between spending 2 days on a fools errand to do Ayton a favor 2-3 years down the track and losing out on a realistically gettable and attractive FA. Guys like Harden, Beal and Lavine are potentially going to be on the market too. I know it's not some superstar free agent class but still.

The other thing as well is teams have to know we're going to match, I mean why wouldn't we when it's not the designated max and it's clear Ayton wants the most guaranteed long term money possible and we're still the team that can offer more than everyone else. It's doing the Suns a huge favor and again, we can still beat that with our own offer. It's really a fool's errand and it's not a no-risk endeavour.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Gambo saying we're looking at adding a big with the open roster spot, but want to take a week or so to look at the roster, any injuries etc..

[Ghost of Kleine]

Jones and Sarver have played the Ayton negotations perfectly, we were either going to get him a team friendly deal or challenge him to show the world he's an All-Star. I'm looking forward to him playing even more now and am more confident now he will prove his full worth.

The one area of slight concern for me and this is purely speculative is that Sarver sees Landry Shamet as his next Goran Dragic. A cheap late blooming combo guard who he can promote from within to replace his HoF PG and get out of repeater tax. Sarver has said in the past he likes to work this way in business and the $11m salary and team option timing (coincides with Chris Paul's) just hints to me this is a live Sarver possibility.

Lol, I'm sorry but this is bordering on sycophantic.

I'm waiting to see what Shamet can do in a Suns uni, and Suns brass is working on what the coaching staff have seen in practice, but Shamet hasn't done $%^& in this league or the playoffs. Ayton HAS.

We messed this up. Maybe not royally, not yet, but the potential is there for this mistake costing us a title.

We should have slightly overpaid Ayton and hoped for the best, said to ourselves well at least we got Bridges on a good discount.

We got Chris on a team friendly deal as well. Should've just paid Ayton.

This is a great point though. I mean leading up to this for awhile now the premise was that in getting discounts on all these other extensions ( sans Shamet obviously) but still, The discounts on Paul ( not taking his player option and opting out and resigning for less, Bridges signing for less, not spending much money in free agency for higher tier free agents, As well as the revenue from the new gambling centers, The TAX PAYER FUNDED arena rebuild, The additional revenue generated from all of the playoff games, etc, etc. ( I'm sure that I'm probably missing a few more important details, BUT you guys get the idea.

In general, All of this additional revenue ALONG WITH the concessions made by the players contractually should be more than enough to bridge the value gap for Aytons' 5 yr deal. I think it's really important to not underestimate or dismiss the potential long term ramifications of the resulting optics in how poorly and unprofessionally this was handled by the suns front office, As well as how ( in a player's league) This will be a glaring indictment of how potential free agents might be treated if they consider playing for the suns.

It's not lost on any players around the league as to what Ayton did for us in busting his butt and sacrificing his scoring in order to focus (as asked) in order to run more of the offense through Paul and Booker. It's also not at all lost on everyone ( players/ front office execs,etc) how dominant Ayton was for us in our playoff matchups. No matter how much solace people take in being dismissive of these things, This was a very bad look to any potential free agents out there. And has undoubtedly set us back severely in consideration as a potential free agent destination.


I get the wanting to "prove it" for longer periods of time from the front offfices' perspective. I really do. But his MARKET VALUE has already been established, And the broad consensus is that you need to be willing to spend to keep a championship core together. In addition to that, There's consequences in all things. And again, This being a player's league wherein players talk and strongly consider their fellow players treatment both personally and professionally, The percieved disrespect regarding this situation will significantly affect us being able to attract quality free agents.

And that's in addition to having our franchise big man feel disrespected and to an extent betrayed as he did everything that the suns asked him to do in reducing his role and being a complimentary player in the rotation. Then when the time comes to show Ayton how much they value his playoff contribution/ immense upside and sacrifice offensively ( that could've otherwise substantiated his max - offense based) the suns don't even communicate an offer. Or worse, But likely given Savers' arrogant nature and documented habitual patterns, Sarver may have flat out told him that he doesn't see him as a max player and similar to Amares' meeting, indicated that his role is easily replaceable??

I just don't understand exactly who out there everyone thinks we'll get that can provide the statistical and on court impact that Ayton already provides. And that's not even considering the upside he still has. What gets me most is what many on here have already pointed out! IF we're intending to match a max offer ( which he absolutely will get) in restricted free agency, Then why not just do it now as to not create any further distractions, as well as to promote the idea that we'll actually value our players. As it's already hard enough to make it back with all things considered, Aside from potential distractions and media drama hanging over our team's head the entire season!

Again, We'll see how everything plays out this season. But it just seems like a very dangerous, potentially costly, and unnecessary gamble to try and motivate Ayton further whilst suffering the consequences of severely bad optics that could drastically impact how players/ potential free agents view our franchise.

[Ghost of Kleine]

David Kevin (@theIVpointplay) Tweeted:
You can take this quite a few ways. My main takeaway:

The Suns aren't worried about being able to attract top end talent or making it happen. Didn't feel as obliged to lock up DA like a smaller market team might with a #1 pick.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[suns12345]

Wouldn't opposing teams that have worked to clear space to offer him max money want more certainty in their acquisition than 2 years?

The thinking is that the opposing team would be doing this with the future in mind. Just get us to match a short deal so that he can hit UFA earlier. In other words, they have no plan to actually sign him to the deal-its just to force us to match it.

The team with the max space have to commit that cap space to Ayton for that 48hrs matching period I believe. They can't have max space and send it to every max level guy and hope they have a handful of accepted deals to choose from. I could be wrong but that would take them out of the running for other more available FA/RFA's and trades that would use cap space. As we've seen, a lot can happen in 2 days in free agency and it could be the difference between spending 2 days on a fools errand to do Ayton a favor 2-3 years down the track and losing out on a realistically gettable and attractive FA. Guys like Harden, Beal and Lavine are potentially going to be on the market too. I know it's not some superstar free agent class but still.

The other thing as well is teams have to know we're going to match, I mean why wouldn't we when it's not the designated max and it's clear Ayton wants the most guaranteed long term money possible and we're still the team that can offer more than everyone else. It's doing the Suns a huge favor and again, we can still beat that with our own offer. It's really a fool's errand and it's not a no-risk endeavour.

This is correct fish. everyone should go listen to Zach Lowe's latest pod (I get it on spotify so not sure how to link it).

He basically outlines how concerns about restricted free agency are a thing of the past since teams don't want to tie up their cap space in a player they won't get, particularly when everyone is signed in the first hour after free agency opens.

Interestingly Zach Lowe actually was in favor of what the suns did, he admitted a few things about it were weird, but had no issue with us not gifting DA the max. He actually had far more concerns with Mikal's contract which is in stark contrast to much of the sentiment here.

[Mulhollanddrive]

Interestingly heard James Jones say he doesn't necessarily want our guys to expand their game just get more efficient with less mistakes. Maybe we just see within our system Ayton is not going to be a superstar 5 year max type player.

[Ghost of Kleine]

The thinking is that the opposing team would be doing this with the future in mind. Just get us to match a short deal so that he can hit UFA earlier. In other words, they have no plan to actually sign him to the deal-its just to force us to match it.

The team with the max space have to commit that cap space to Ayton for that 48hrs matching period I believe. They can't have max space and send it to every max level guy and hope they have a handful of accepted deals to choose from. I could be wrong but that would take them out of the running for other more available FA/RFA's and trades that would use cap space. As we've seen, a lot can happen in 2 days in free agency and it could be the difference between spending 2 days on a fools errand to do Ayton a favor 2-3 years down the track and losing out on a realistically gettable and attractive FA. Guys like Harden, Beal and Lavine are potentially going to be on the market too. I know it's not some superstar free agent class but still.

The other thing as well is teams have to know we're going to match, I mean why wouldn't we when it's not the designated max and it's clear Ayton wants the most guaranteed long term money possible and we're still the team that can offer more than everyone else. It's doing the Suns a huge favor and again, we can still beat that with our own offer. It's really a fool's errand and it's not a no-risk endeavour.

This is correct fish. everyone should go listen to Zach Lowe's latest pod (I get it on spotify so not sure how to link it).

He basically outlines how concerns about restricted free agency are a thing of the past since teams don't want to tie up their cap space in a player they won't get, particularly when everyone is signed in the first hour after free agency opens.

Interestingly Zach Lowe actually was in favor of what the suns did, he admitted a few things about it were weird, but had no issue with us not gifting DA the max. He actually had far more concerns with Mikal's contract which is in stark contrast to much of the sentiment here.

That is unless you're a small to mid market team that normally has trouble attracting high end talent, So rather than spending that money on smaller inconsequential players, They find such a risk acceptable in being able to drastically change their outcomes if their gamble actually pays off.

OR if your a team division/ conference rival that can still stick it to your adversarial team in the western conference by forcing the suns to tie up large portions of their cap flexibility with a huge offer. Some teams might consider that an acceptable gamble as even if they by chance lose out on Ayton, They'll still tie up a conference / division rivals payroll significantly for a number of years.

But make no mistake, There'll be a large number of interested teams willing to throw Ayton a max, Or very close to it, To challenge Sarvers' Bluff. And there'll be plenty of smaller or mid market teams looking to go for it, As again under normal circumstances, They couldn't otherwise attract anyone of significance. For example:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sport-net.org/what-nba-team-has-most-cap-space/amp/

Teams with most cap space, 2021-22 offseason (via Spotrac)

- New York Knicks – $52.6 million.
- San Antonio Spurs – $48 million.
- Dallas Mavericks – $33.5 million.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – $30 million.
- Memphis Grizzlies – $24.4 million.
- Toronto Raptors – $22.1 million.
- Miami Heat – $20.4 million.
- Charlotte Hornets – $16.8 million.

So just going off this alone, The Knicks or Spurs can offer upwards of 30 + million without really hamstringing their free agency interests. San Antonio might just do it to handicap our flexibility over the next few seasons as it only helps them competitively, As they don't believe in tanking with Pop there!

New York ( fans at least has professed significant interest in Ayton as well. Now a team like OKC is a prime example of being very willing as well to try and gamble on Ayton just to expedite their rebuild. Imagine if they can force a sign 'n' trade for Ayton whilst keeping Shai! Now they'd have Shai/ Ayton and still have a large number of picks and other assets to throw at Simmons. You don't think the thought of a Simmons/ Shai/ Ayton cornerstones would be immensely tempting to them?

Other teams could would maneuver easy enough to gamble on Ayton just to put them over the top as a playoff team- Dallas, Toronto, and perhaps even Miami would be willing to maneuver in order to throw a max offer to Ayton to advance their position in the playoffs. Charlotte would absolutely be willing to gamble on Ayton as getting him would advance them to a legitimate playoff team. The important factor in this that people must remember is that next summer's free agency is pretty dismal. So it's not like there'll be significant premium competition for big/ max deals. Especially after so many of the few available premium free agents have recently been extended aside from Ayton. Either way, Aytons' getting a max. Whether it's the Suns matching to keep him, OR him getting from another team leaving in free agency.

[Frank Lee]

Jeebus y’all.... the cart is way way up there in front of this horse**** speculation. When your opening salvo is a ‘nothing less than a 5 yr max’... then what is the point of negotiation? Ayton and co played tuff guy, but got a bitchslap ‘No’. Then they had to sneaky leak it out to try to get public sentiment. Now y’all are spinning this out like he’s walking the minute he can because he was done dirty. This mess is not on the FO.

[bwgood77]

Jeebus y’all.... the cart is way way up there in front of this horse**** speculation. When your opening salvo is a ‘nothing less than a 5 yr max’... then what is the point of negotiation? Ayton and co played tuff guy, but got a bitchslap ‘No’. Then they had to sneaky leak it out to try to get public sentiment. Now y’all are spinning this out like he’s walking the minute he can because he was done dirty. This mess is not on the FO.

Damn, so you don't think it's worth a call? You neve negotiated? When you start, you ACT like what you say is actually what you ACTUALLY want, no question. Then you meet somewhere.

There was definitely a reason for a call. I don't think it will backfire, but it could. Don't know their reasoning, other than nothing they publicly say makes a lot of sense.

I wouldn't put it all on Duffy. He's a standup agent and obviously wanted some discussion. Dumb to ruin those relationships too if they think we are not being genuine.

Anyway, doesn't matter. Water under the bridge.

[bwoolf2]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Zona (@ZonaHoops_) Tweeted:
Alright, Suns Twitter.

Here are your W-L predictions for the Suns this season. Let’s just say it’s an optimistic bunch… for good reason. https://t.co/iov1f05r2D

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Bogyo]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

I don't think that's very likely, for one or two reasons.
1. Luxury tax, which Sarver might be reluctant to pay. KAT has the "same" contract amount that we are not willing to give DA, so it's not helping in that way for sure, if this is an issue. (Also, KAT is a much lesser defender, so it takes away from our D, and who is gonna rebound? We haven't solved our PF issues - yes I'm looking at you Crowder, Mr.0-5 on opening night on our home court.)

2. JJ quote up here looks like they don't want to pay a C all this much money, no matter who it is. They could be right(ish) as Valanciunas just signed 2yrs 33 mill. His averages last year were 17pts 12,5reb 2 assist, 1 block. With Zion out (I told all of you he will be Larry Johnson / Greg Oden part 2 becouse of his body) JV will have a better year for sure. Is he a better player than DA? I don't think so. But it looks like you can get like 80% of Aytons production (Val can't be switched onto smaller, more athletic guys like DA, hence the 80%, otherwise stats are identical, or very-very similar) for 50% of his desired salary...

Not saying this is right (I'm on record saying Sarver should have paid the max, as that contract will be easy to trade in 2-3 years unless DA shts the bed, or just gets lazy a la TIm Thomas as others have mentioned), but it is thought worthy.

[bwgood77]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

Of course you trade for KAT if you can. They were looking pretty good tonight. We struggled with them a bit last year and they will be a lot tougher this year.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton is speaking now. Said he's always learned to control what he can control. Said he is disappointed with no extension but is focused on getting back to the Finals. He's a competitor and going to compete.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Slim Charless]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

Of course you trade for KAT if you can. They were looking pretty good tonight. We struggled with them a bit last year and they will be a lot tougher this year.

It's not that simple imo. KAT is a great shooter and scorer, but Ayton is key to what we do and how this machine works. Making it more difficult is it wouldn't be a 1for1 deal as we'd have to add. Since we'd be good, Minny won't want picks. I think we'd have to give up Cam, Stix and maybe Shamet as well or least some combo of 2 of that 3-in addition to Ayton.

All of that along with the dramatic drop in our defense too.

[LV-Suns]

Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton is speaking now. Said he's always learned to control what he can control. Said he is disappointed with no extension but is focused on getting back to the Finals. He's a competitor and going to compete.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The fact that he is still going on about this is just concerning. He is failing to recognize why a 5 year extension wasn’t offered.

[lilfishi22]

Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) Tweeted:
Deandre Ayton is speaking now. Said he's always learned to control what he can control. Said he is disappointed with no extension but is focused on getting back to the Finals. He's a competitor and going to compete.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The fact that he is still going on about this is just concerning. He is failing to recognize why a 5 year extension wasn’t offered.

Depends if he was asked the question or if he was bringing it up out of his own volition. I still like the answer though, disappointed but focusing on the goal.

[lilfishi22]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

Of course you trade for KAT if you can. They were looking pretty good tonight. We struggled with them a bit last year and they will be a lot tougher this year.

It's not that simple imo. KAT is a great shooter and scorer, but Ayton is key to what we do and how this machine works. Making it more difficult is it wouldn't be a 1for1 deal as we'd have to add. Since we'd be good, Minny won't want picks. I think we'd have to give up Cam, Stix and maybe Shamet as well or least some combo of 2 of that 3-in addition to Ayton.

All of that along with the dramatic drop in our defense too.

I'd do all that. KAT is a generational talent imo.

[Ghost of Kleine]

I hope Ayton has a big year and gets the max but if KAT is ever on the table I make that deal.

I don't think that's very likely, for one or two reasons.
1. Luxury tax, which Sarver might be reluctant to pay. KAT has the "same" contract amount that we are not willing to give DA, so it's not helping in that way for sure, if this is an issue. (Also, KAT is a much lesser defender, so it takes away from our D, and who is gonna rebound? We haven't solved our PF issues - yes I'm looking at you Crowder, Mr.0-5 on opening night on our home court.)

2. JJ quote up here looks like they don't want to pay a C all this much money, no matter who it is. They could be right(ish) as Valanciunas just signed 2yrs 33 mill. His averages last year were 17pts 12,5reb 2 assist, 1 block. With Zion out (I told all of you he will be Larry Johnson / Greg Oden part 2 becouse of his body) JV will have a better year for sure. Is he a better player than DA? I don't think so. But it looks like you can get like 80% of Aytons production (Val can't be switched onto smaller, more athletic guys like DA, hence the 80%, otherwise stats are identical, or very-very similar) for 50% of his desired salary...

Not saying this is right (I'm on record saying Sarver should have paid the max, as that contract will be easy to trade in 2-3 years unless DA shts the bed, or just gets lazy a la TIm Thomas as others have mentioned), but it is thought worthy.

You're right about Valuncias and Savers' propensity for bargain options as well. It's also funny because I was looking into Valuncias as well, And wondered if he'd get resigned and exactly how much as it would be a huge discount compared to Aytons' projected salary. And as you pointed out, Valuncias can match Aytons' double/ double production, AND hit on 36% of his threes as well.

So there would be two comparable options for centers now if a trade does eventually happen.

1- Nikola Vucevic. 24 million/ 22 million.
2- Jonas Valuncias. 14 million/ 15 million.
Now Valuncias is more efficient and a better rebounder and slightly better defender/ shotblocker. But Vucevic is more versatile and with a higher impact on winning. Overall financially though, Valuncias is better value. So if Saver plans on moving Ayton, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Valuncias was the target in a trade. Lastly, His contract expires in 2024. So it'd align with Booker's next extension as well.