[Project:Primes of the top 10 ever] List the top 12 seasons between LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan

[Djoker]

‪1. '09 LeBron — the impact numbers in both RS and PS and the carry job of a that cast to 66 wins and an 8+ SRS are unrivaled. I think this is the peak season even though for concentrated amounts of time, I believe 2016-2017 LeBron is a better player‬
2. ‘91 Jordan- Contention for GOAT season. Everything just came together between athleticism, playmaking, smoothness of that turnaround fade, everything
3. ‪ ‘12 LeBron — high motor impact throughout RS and PS and incredibly robust overall game ‬
4. ‘13 LeBron — same as ‘12, 27 game win streak, playoffs impact metrics not as good, but much of that has to do with playing with an injured Wade who wasn’t very good in the playoffs.
5. 16 LeBron — Regular season not as good but highest possible level vs. 73 win team. Unbelievably low FTr even though shot more at the rim than in any other season. More calls there and season moves up. ‬
6. 90 Jordan —Just under his best season
7. ‘89 Jordan - Close to 1990 Jordan
8. ‪‘17 LeBron — offensive mastery of game in playoffs, and only literally the GOAT team could stop him from winning a title. I think this is his offensive peak but regular season not as good. Cannot see a team losing a title unless it’s a juggernaut of juggernaut team in the Finals and even then, he was +6 on court through 4 games
9. ‘88 Jordan — not as polished as later versions
10. ‪‘10 LeBron — Don’t feel right placing him this far down since metrics close to 2009 metrics but playoffs not as subli‬me but did have injury. There’s a very good argument this is a top 3 season for James, but there are so many great seasons between these two.
11. ‘‪20 LeBron — highly underrated season. He led an unconventional team playing against the prevailing success tactics of the era to a title. When paired with a player playing really well (i.e., AD), Lebron showed how dominant his team can be. That Lakers team had four 30+ point leads innthe 4th quarter of playoff games, six games up 27+ in the fourth...‬
12. ‘92 Jordan — close to ‘93 Jordan

You insinuated that my list is biased and one-sided but then you proceeded to give four of the top five spots to Lebron.

I justified my list with per 75 numbers in which peak Jordan from 1988-1993 basically crushes any non-2009 Lebron. Years like 2012, 2013 and 2016 are nowhere near peak Jordan offensively. That's just the truth. 2009 is the only one that is up there and 2018 comes close but the latter is anywhere between mediocre and terrible on defense plus Lebron's regular season was clearly a step below GOAT level in 2018. And regular season play still counts for something even for me and I emphasize playoffs. Anyways...

Per 75 Playoff Numbers:

1988 Jordan: 32.9/6.4/4.3 on +6.0 rTS with 3.0 to (10 games)
1989 Jordan: 32.6/6.5/7.1 on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 to (17 games)
1990 Jordan: 33.8/6.6/6.3 on +5.5 rTS with 3.2 to (16 games)
1991 Jordan: 31.4/6.4/8.4 on +6.6 rTS with 2.8 to (17 games)
1992 Jordan: 33.4/6.0/5.6 on +4.0 rTS with 3.5 to (22 games)
1993 Jordan: 34.6/6.7/5.9 on +1.7 rTS with 2.3 to (19 games)

2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)

On average about 5 more points per 75, comparable efficiency, comparable creation and lower turnovers. That's easily a tier ahead offensively for Jordan over Lebron.

You'd have to value 2012/2013/2016 Lebron at elite big men level defensively (someone actually said this; I'm sorry but it's funny ) to put him over 1989 and 1990 Jordan. I value peak Lebron as slightly better defensively but on the same tier. However even if Lebron was a tier above he'd still be behind Jordan overall because perimeter players don't impact the game defensively nearly as much as they do offensively. Based on Ben Taylor's modelling IIRC, peak Lebron's defense is 1 points/100 better than peak Jordan's defense. That's literally nothing compared to Jordan's huge edges in the four offensive categories driven by his scoring.

I have one question for everyone in general? What is this historical PIPM data based on? We don't have play-by-play/plus minus prior to 1997 so this is all boxscore based? Because I've seen people use it as substitute for RAPM which I think isn't right. The way I see it we simply don't have plus-minus data for Jordan's peak years and it is what it is.

Looking at the box-score to estimate impact is not great and even then, box-score numbers say Lebron's PS offense is better

Top 10 Offensive PS per RAPTOR between MJ and Lebron (More Than 1 Series)

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 17 Lebron
4. 18 Lebron
5. 93 Jordan
6. 90 Jordan
7. 12 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 13 LBJ
10. 10 LBJ

Top 10 Offensive PS per Backpicks BPM between MJ and Lebron.

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 18 LBJ
4./5. 17 LBJ/93 MJ
6. 90 MJ
7. 14 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 92 MJ
10. 10 LBJ

Lebron lead better single year, three year, and 8 year PS offenses than Jordan. And when you consider that Lebron lead offenses are better and he adds more value with the ball in his hands, the fact that his Miami years are still up here are pretty incredible and more than gives him an argument for being a better offensive player than Jordan.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

[LukaTheGOAT]

You insinuated that my list is biased and one-sided but then you proceeded to give four of the top five spots to Lebron.

I justified my list with per 75 numbers in which peak Jordan from 1988-1993 basically crushes any non-2009 Lebron. Years like 2012, 2013 and 2016 are nowhere near peak Jordan offensively. That's just the truth. 2009 is the only one that is up there and 2018 comes close but the latter is anywhere between mediocre and terrible on defense plus Lebron's regular season was clearly a step below GOAT level in 2018. And regular season play still counts for something even for me and I emphasize playoffs. Anyways...

Per 75 Playoff Numbers:

1988 Jordan: 32.9/6.4/4.3 on +6.0 rTS with 3.0 to (10 games)
1989 Jordan: 32.6/6.5/7.1 on +6.5 rTS with 3.8 to (17 games)
1990 Jordan: 33.8/6.6/6.3 on +5.5 rTS with 3.2 to (16 games)
1991 Jordan: 31.4/6.4/8.4 on +6.6 rTS with 2.8 to (17 games)
1992 Jordan: 33.4/6.0/5.6 on +4.0 rTS with 3.5 to (22 games)
1993 Jordan: 34.6/6.7/5.9 on +1.7 rTS with 2.3 to (19 games)

2012 Lebron: 29.0/9.3/5.4 on +4.9 rTS with 3.4 to (23 games)
2013 Lebron: 25.6/8.3/6.5 on +5.0 rTS with 3.0 to (23 games)
2016 Lebron: 26.7/9.7/7.7 on +4.4 rTS with 3.6 to (21 games)

On average about 5 more points per 75, comparable efficiency, comparable creation and lower turnovers. That's easily a tier ahead offensively for Jordan over Lebron.

You'd have to value 2012/2013/2016 Lebron at elite big men level defensively (someone actually said this; I'm sorry but it's funny ) to put him over 1989 and 1990 Jordan. I value peak Lebron as slightly better defensively but on the same tier. However even if Lebron was a tier above he'd still be behind Jordan overall because perimeter players don't impact the game defensively nearly as much as they do offensively. Based on Ben Taylor's modelling IIRC, peak Lebron's defense is 1 points/100 better than peak Jordan's defense. That's literally nothing compared to Jordan's huge edges in the four offensive categories driven by his scoring.

I have one question for everyone in general? What is this historical PIPM data based on? We don't have play-by-play/plus minus prior to 1997 so this is all boxscore based? Because I've seen people use it as substitute for RAPM which I think isn't right. The way I see it we simply don't have plus-minus data for Jordan's peak years and it is what it is.

Looking at the box-score to estimate impact is not great and even then, box-score numbers say Lebron's PS offense is better

Top 10 Offensive PS per RAPTOR between MJ and Lebron (More Than 1 Series)

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 17 Lebron
4. 18 Lebron
5. 93 Jordan
6. 90 Jordan
7. 12 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 13 LBJ
10. 10 LBJ

Top 10 Offensive PS per Backpicks BPM between MJ and Lebron.

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 18 LBJ
4./5. 17 LBJ/93 MJ
6. 90 MJ
7. 14 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 92 MJ
10. 10 LBJ

Lebron lead better single year, three year, and 8 year PS offenses than Jordan. And when you consider that Lebron lead offenses are better and he adds more value with the ball in his hands, the fact that his Miami years are still up here are pretty incredible and more than gives him an argument for being a better offensive player than Jordan.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

I listed their offensive numbers because you said MJ is at least a tier up from Lebron.

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

[DQuinn1575]

Spoiler:

Looking at the box-score to estimate impact is not great and even then, box-score numbers say Lebron's PS offense is better

Top 10 Offensive PS per RAPTOR between MJ and Lebron (More Than 1 Series)

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 17 Lebron
4. 18 Lebron
5. 93 Jordan
6. 90 Jordan
7. 12 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 13 LBJ
10. 10 LBJ

Top 10 Offensive PS per Backpicks BPM between MJ and Lebron.

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 18 LBJ
4./5. 17 LBJ/93 MJ
6. 90 MJ
7. 14 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 92 MJ
10. 10 LBJ

Lebron lead better single year, three year, and 8 year PS offenses than Jordan. And when you consider that Lebron lead offenses are better and he adds more value with the ball in his hands, the fact that his Miami years are still up here are pretty incredible and more than gives him an argument for being a better offensive player than Jordan.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

I don't think I know what TWPR is; I googled it and found a spreadsheet that has Kareem's best season as 34th best, and has Draymond Green stacking up relatively well against Kareem, and it says 12 different guys since 1978 had a better season than Kareem's best.
If I look at the Top 100 seasons it has Chris Paul 3rd with 8 (behind MJ and LeBron) and Stockton tied for 5th with 5 (Malone has 2); so it looks like he is overvaluing assists in his model.
So it's real hard to take that as any basis

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h-GBbJ4RQ1JSWnhPfhDzG4oQKz4FW_KCl6qynSlJWjk/edit#gid=0

So if I look at RAPTOR then 97 Jordan's RS would be LeBron's 5th BEST season
but it is Jordan's 8th BEST season.
And if Jordan's 8th best season doesn't look as good against LeBron's best in plus/minus, well it doesn't look as good against Jordan's best in other measures.

There are a lot of measures out there, and honestly they aren't designed to get the very top one correct, they should be designed to get the 95% in the middle correct. So even if I knew that which was best, it may not be best for determining the value multiple standard deviations above the mean.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Spoiler:

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

I don't think I know what TWPR is; I googled it and found a spreadsheet that has Kareem's best season as 34th best, and has Draymond Green stacking up relatively well against Kareem, and it says 12 different guys since 1978 had a better season than Kareem's best.
If I look at the Top 100 seasons it has Chris Paul 3rd with 8 (behind MJ and LeBron) and Stockton tied for 5th with 5 (Malone has 2); so it looks like he is overvaluing assists in his model.
So it's real hard to take that as any basis

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h-GBbJ4RQ1JSWnhPfhDzG4oQKz4FW_KCl6qynSlJWjk/edit#gid=0

So if I look at RAPTOR then 97 Jordan's RS would be LeBron's 5th BEST season
but it is Jordan's 8th BEST season.
And if Jordan's 8th best season doesn't look as good against LeBron's best in plus/minus, well it doesn't look as good against Jordan's best in other measures.

There are a lot of measures out there, and honestly they aren't designed to get the very top one correct, they should be designed to get the 95% in the middle correct. So even if I knew that which was best, it may not be best for determining the value multiple standard deviations above the mean.

TWPR only has seasons going back to the 1978, so basically the first chunk of his career where he had his best RS are out the window. But this is a tired topic at this point.

[falcolombardi]

Spoiler:

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

I don't think I know what TWPR is; I googled it and found a spreadsheet that has Kareem's best season as 34th best, and has Draymond Green stacking up relatively well against Kareem, and it says 12 different guys since 1978 had a better season than Kareem's best.
If I look at the Top 100 seasons it has Chris Paul 3rd with 8 (behind MJ and LeBron) and Stockton tied for 5th with 5 (Malone has 2); so it looks like he is overvaluing assists in his model.
So it's real hard to take that as any basis

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h-GBbJ4RQ1JSWnhPfhDzG4oQKz4FW_KCl6qynSlJWjk/edit#gid=0

So if I look at RAPTOR then 97 Jordan's RS would be LeBron's 5th BEST season
but it is Jordan's 8th BEST season.
And if Jordan's 8th best season doesn't look as good against LeBron's best in plus/minus, well it doesn't look as good against Jordan's best in other measures.

There are a lot of measures out there, and honestly they aren't designed to get the very top one correct, they should be designed to get the 95% in the middle correct. So even if I knew that which was best, it may not be best for determining the value multiple standard deviations above the mean.

draymond is. an all time great in impact metrics amd not only because sharing minutes with curry

while i think is a very specific situation that maximized him, green has been a vital part of warriors dominance so it makes sense thst he is so high in impact métrics

for those specific teams, draymond or a player who could replicate his roles was a necesity, his value to THOSE specific teams was insane and i say this as someone very low in draymond offense for most teams

[VanWest82]

I think that given the way Lebron was clearly load managing during the regular seasons 14-19 it probably makes more sense to use full season samples rather than just focus on playoffs. What would MJ's playoff numbers have looked like if he'd been making business decisions all year in the second half of his career instead of grinding out 60 and 70 win seasons? Probably more series that resembled 86 Celtics I'd guess.

And in addition to the usual caveats about non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated impact metrics being somewhat useless, it should be noted that Lebron's vaunted 2017 playoff ORAPTOR was actually only 4th that year behind Curry, Kawhi, and CP. I guess those guys were better than MJ too (as well as Lebron). And as impressive as 2018 was, Lebron had to take dogging it on defense to level we've never really seen before from a star player (or any player). It was the right thing for him to do, but still...and this is all to say nothing about the cupcake Leastern Conferences those years that inflated his numbers.

Certainly post 2011 playoff Lebron was a marvel and in many ways matched Jordan as a peak performer but there are some pretty significant caveats imo.

[falcolombardi]

I think that given the way Lebron was clearly load managing during the regular seasons 14-19 it probably makes more sense to use full season samples rather than just focus on playoffs. What would MJ's playoff numbers have looked like if he'd been making business decisions all year in the second half of his career instead of grinding out 60 and 70 win seasons? Probably more series that resembled 86 Celtics I'd guess.

And in addition to the usual caveats about non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated impact metrics being somewhat useless, it should be noted that Lebron's vaunted 2017 playoff ORAPTOR was actually only 4th that year behind Curry, Kawhi, and CP. I guess those guys were better than MJ too (as well as Lebron). And as impressive as 2018 was, Lebron had to take dogging it on defense to level we've never really seen before from a star player (or any player). It was the right thing for him to do, but still...and this is all to say nothing about the cupcake Leastern Conferences those years that inflated his numbers.

Certainly post 2011 playoff Lebron was a marvel and in many ways matched Jordan as a peak performer but there are some pretty significant caveats imo.

lebron weaker regular seasons post 2013 because of load management are already accounted for when evaluating those seasons it makes no sense to double count it, we already punish his weaker regular seasons

he dominated the regular season in the 09-13 period, afterwards his lower output in reg season is already criticized

if jordan indeed (speculation) was worse than he could have been in the playoffs in Exchange of a few more wins and better regular season stats then maybe the problem would be with jordan approach

no reason to play hypothetical instead of using their actual play

[Djoker]

Looking at the box-score to estimate impact is not great and even then, box-score numbers say Lebron's PS offense is better

Top 10 Offensive PS per RAPTOR between MJ and Lebron (More Than 1 Series)

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 17 Lebron
4. 18 Lebron
5. 93 Jordan
6. 90 Jordan
7. 12 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 13 LBJ
10. 10 LBJ

Top 10 Offensive PS per Backpicks BPM between MJ and Lebron.

1. 09 Lebron
(GAP)
2. 91 MJ
3. 18 LBJ
4./5. 17 LBJ/93 MJ
6. 90 MJ
7. 14 LBJ
8. 89 MJ
9. 92 MJ
10. 10 LBJ

Lebron lead better single year, three year, and 8 year PS offenses than Jordan. And when you consider that Lebron lead offenses are better and he adds more value with the ball in his hands, the fact that his Miami years are still up here are pretty incredible and more than gives him an argument for being a better offensive player than Jordan.

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

I listed their offensive numbers because you said MJ is at least a tier up from Lebron.

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

Yes Ben Taylor used 3 years data. Still... 1989-1991 Jordan has higher Backpicks BPM, AuPM and PIPM than both Cleveland and Miami versions of Lebron. As far as actual plus-minus data, 1997 Jordan would be 2nd in Lebron's career in RAPM in the regular season and 4th in Lebron's career in the playoffs. By the way ESPN's RPM has 1997 Jordan as the 5th best of Lebron's career.

I'm glad you mentioned RAPTOR. I found this link from FiveThirtyEight by the creators of the RAPTOR statistic. They ranked the top seasons in NBA history by WAR which is RAPTOR that also considers minutes played and pace. It combines regular season plus playoffs. Jordan ends up with the #1 spot (1991) and seven of the top 10 spots. Coincidentally RAPTOR supports my view that only 2009 Lebron is competitive with peak Jordan.

Top 10 by WAR:

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 2009 Lebron
3. 1989 Jordan
4. 1990 Jordan
5. 2016 Curry
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 1993 Jordan
8. 1996 Jordan
9. 1993 Jordan
10. 2015 Curry

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

At the end of the day we don't have plus-minus for MJ's peak but all the data we do have (1997 and 1998 + Ben Taylor's estimates for peak Jordan + RAPTOR/WAR) gives us a strong hunch that peak Jordan is more impactful.

In terms of four offensive box score metrics, Jordan is definitely a tier above. They are similar in creation, efficiency and turnovers while Jordan scored 5 more points/75. That's a dramatic difference in scoring volume.

And at the end of the day we are comparing individual players. Individual statistics matter more than anything else. Otherwise Draymond Green is a GOAT candidate.

[falcolombardi]

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

I listed their offensive numbers because you said MJ is at least a tier up from Lebron.

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

Yes Ben Taylor used 3 years data. Still... 1989-1991 Jordan has higher Backpicks BPM, AuPM and PIPM than both Cleveland and Miami versions of Lebron. As far as actual plus-minus data, 1997 Jordan would be 2nd in Lebron's career in RAPM in the regular season and 4th in Lebron's career in the playoffs. By the way ESPN's RPM has 1997 Jordan as the 5th best of Lebron's career.

I'm glad you mentioned RAPTOR. I found this link from FiveThirtyEight by the creators of the RAPTOR statistic. They ranked the top seasons in NBA history by WAR which is RAPTOR that also considers minutes played and pace. It combines regular season plus playoffs. Jordan ends up with the #1 spot (1991) and seven of the top 10 spots. Coincidentally RAPTOR supports my view that only 2009 Lebron is competitive with peak Jordan.

Top 10 by WAR:

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 2009 Lebron
3. 1989 Jordan
4. 1990 Jordan
5. 2016 Curry
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 1993 Jordan
8. 1996 Jordan
9. 1993 Jordan
10. 2015 Curry

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

At the end of the day we don't have plus-minus for MJ's peak but all the data we do have (1997 and 1998 + Ben Taylor's estimates for peak Jordan + RAPTOR/WAR) gives us a strong hunch that peak Jordan is more impactful.

In terms of four offensive box score metrics, Jordan is definitely a tier above. They are similar in creation, efficiency and turnovers while Jordan scored 5 more points/75. That's a dramatic difference in scoring volume.

And at the end of the day we are comparing individual players. Individual statistics matter more than anything else. Otherwise Draymond Green is a GOAT candidate.

that is like saying that magic johnson cannot be in the same (offensive) conversation as jordan because his boxscore is much less impressive, yet many here consider him the offense goat over jordan

counting stats are not a direct 1:1 to impact (neither are plus minus based stats, which is why we use both as well as directo evaluatiom/scouting)

[LukaTheGOAT]

I don't know where you're getting these numbers. Can you post a link?

Ben Taylor in his peaks finale video had Jordan ahead in Backpicks BPM, AuPM, and PIPM compared to both Cleveland and Miami Lebron.

Either way it's hard to precisely define peak MJ's impact because we don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. However based on the RAPM data on 1997 Jordan we can infer that peak MJ circa 1991 was probably an absolute monster in impact stats. 1997 Jordan has a RS RAPM of +5.21 which would be the second highest of Lebron's career behind +5.77 in 2009. Jordan's 1997 PS RAPM is +2.69 which would be Lebron's 4th best after 2017, 2012 and 2016. Mind you 1997 was Jordan's 8th best season by my estimation so the fact that's it's that high among Lebron's seasons is telling. Jordan's 1998 PS RAPM would be tied for 5th by the way so it's also very strong despite a weak regular season.

Link to RAPM data is below.

https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

I listed their offensive numbers because you said MJ is at least a tier up from Lebron.

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

Yes Ben Taylor used 3 years data. Still... 1989-1991 Jordan has higher Backpicks BPM, AuPM and PIPM than both Cleveland and Miami versions of Lebron. As far as actual plus-minus data, 1997 Jordan would be 2nd in Lebron's career in RAPM in the regular season and 4th in Lebron's career in the playoffs. By the way ESPN's RPM has 1997 Jordan as the 5th best of Lebron's career.

I'm glad you mentioned RAPTOR. I found this link from FiveThirtyEight by the creators of the RAPTOR statistic. They ranked the top seasons in NBA history by WAR which is RAPTOR that also considers minutes played and pace. It combines regular season plus playoffs. Jordan ends up with the #1 spot (1991) and seven of the top 10 spots. Coincidentally RAPTOR supports my view that only 2009 Lebron is competitive with peak Jordan.

Top 10 by WAR:

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 2009 Lebron
3. 1989 Jordan
4. 1990 Jordan
5. 2016 Curry
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 1993 Jordan
8. 1996 Jordan
9. 1993 Jordan
10. 2015 Curry

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

At the end of the day we don't have plus-minus for MJ's peak but all the data we do have (1997 and 1998 + Ben Taylor's estimates for peak Jordan + RAPTOR/WAR) gives us a strong hunch that peak Jordan is more impactful.

In terms of four offensive box score metrics, Jordan is definitely a tier above. They are similar in creation, efficiency and turnovers while Jordan scored 5 more points/75. That's a dramatic difference in scoring volume.

And at the end of the day we are comparing individual players. Individual statistics matter more than anything else. Otherwise Draymond Green is a GOAT candidate.

WAR is liked VORP. It is impacted by the number of games you have played. So 91 Jordan playing more games lead to more WAR.

And no, just because YOU think simple box-score stats matter more, doesn't mean we all agree. And as I said, Lebron's impact metrics in Miami on offense are notably lower than other stints of Cleveland because he is better with the ball in his hands than without, yet he still compares well in the impact metrics. 09 and 10 is are the only years this was a case, where he had his high motor in the RS on defense.

Also, no one is saying that Lebron's 3 best seasons happened one after the other like with MJ. They are saying there are multiple years throughout his career where Lebron is better.

Like Lebron's 3 best PS runs per PIPM, are better than any of MJ's but they didn't happen in back to back years. Say with his 3 best total seasons although they didn't happen back to back. As I already listed, Lebron has several individual PS runs better than stack up better or just as well as Jordan's.

You said earlier that you didn't care for Taylor's Backpicks PlayVal metrics, because "we can't possibly measure that sort of thing, sorry buddy," yet here you use his creation estimates as somehow more reliable than his PlayVal stat?

Lebron is the only player in history to have a top 15 season in ScoreVal and PlayVal...and he did this twice (just barely missed doing this 3 times). You could reasonably say no player has ever had the combination of scoring and playmaking that Lebron has.

And you do realize that Lebron has the greatest 3-year PS PlayVal peak in history? You said before that it was a crap stat, because no way is Lebron can be that good and there is no way you can measure playmaking. Kind of contradictory. You also ignore that without Wade on the court from 12-14, Lebron's 3 year PS scoring is better than MJ's ever was in terms of volume (if you watched the Lebron vid).

You also don't mention the whole other side of the ball where Lebron is generally considered by most metrics, and his 2016 playoff run looks like the greatest defensive PS from a perimeter player ever per PIPM and RAPTOR.

[VanWest82]

I think that given the way Lebron was clearly load managing during the regular seasons 14-19 it probably makes more sense to use full season samples rather than just focus on playoffs. What would MJ's playoff numbers have looked like if he'd been making business decisions all year in the second half of his career instead of grinding out 60 and 70 win seasons? Probably more series that resembled 86 Celtics I'd guess.

And in addition to the usual caveats about non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated impact metrics being somewhat useless, it should be noted that Lebron's vaunted 2017 playoff ORAPTOR was actually only 4th that year behind Curry, Kawhi, and CP. I guess those guys were better than MJ too (as well as Lebron). And as impressive as 2018 was, Lebron had to take dogging it on defense to level we've never really seen before from a star player (or any player). It was the right thing for him to do, but still...and this is all to say nothing about the cupcake Leastern Conferences those years that inflated his numbers.

Certainly post 2011 playoff Lebron was a marvel and in many ways matched Jordan as a peak performer but there are some pretty significant caveats imo.

lebron weaker regular seasons post 2013 because of load management are already accounted for when evaluating those seasons it makes no sense to double count it, we already punish his weaker regular seasons

he dominated the regular season in the 09-13 period, afterwards his lower output in reg season is already criticized

if jordan indeed (speculation) was worse than he could have been in the playoffs in Exchange of a few more wins and better regular season stats then maybe the problem would be with jordan approach

no reason to play hypothetical instead of using their actual play

Look at the last couple of pages itt. It's entirely post season analysis with no account for the way Lebron was able to game the regular season because he got to play in a historically weak conference. MJ had to play better competition in the East. HC mattered vs. Knicks, Magic, Heat, Hawks, Pacers, etc. Only looking at playoffs from that time gives Lebron a massive built in advantage. Again I'd cite 86 MJ as what happens when he gets to just show up for the playoffs.

[ceoofkobefans]

1. 1991 MJ
2. 2013 LeBron
3. 2009 LeBron
4. 1992 MJ
5. 2012 LeBron
6. 1990 MJ
7. 2010 LeBron
8. 1989 MJ
9. 1993 MJ
10. 1988 MJ
11. 2014 LeBron
12. 2016 LeBron

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think that given the way Lebron was clearly load managing during the regular seasons 14-19 it probably makes more sense to use full season samples rather than just focus on playoffs. What would MJ's playoff numbers have looked like if he'd been making business decisions all year in the second half of his career instead of grinding out 60 and 70 win seasons? Probably more series that resembled 86 Celtics I'd guess.

And in addition to the usual caveats about non-tracking, plus/minus-estimated impact metrics being somewhat useless, it should be noted that Lebron's vaunted 2017 playoff ORAPTOR was actually only 4th that year behind Curry, Kawhi, and CP. I guess those guys were better than MJ too (as well as Lebron). And as impressive as 2018 was, Lebron had to take dogging it on defense to level we've never really seen before from a star player (or any player). It was the right thing for him to do, but still...and this is all to say nothing about the cupcake Leastern Conferences those years that inflated his numbers.

Certainly post 2011 playoff Lebron was a marvel and in many ways matched Jordan as a peak performer but there are some pretty significant caveats imo.

lebron weaker regular seasons post 2013 because of load management are already accounted for when evaluating those seasons it makes no sense to double count it, we already punish his weaker regular seasons

he dominated the regular season in the 09-13 period, afterwards his lower output in reg season is already criticized

if jordan indeed (speculation) was worse than he could have been in the playoffs in Exchange of a few more wins and better regular season stats then maybe the problem would be with jordan approach

no reason to play hypothetical instead of using their actual play

Look at the last couple of pages itt. It's entirely post season analysis with no account for the way Lebron was able to game the regular season because he got to play in a historically weak conference. MJ had to play better competition in the East. HC mattered vs. Knicks, Magic, Heat, Hawks, Pacers, etc. Only looking at playoffs from that time gives Lebron a massive built in advantage. Again I'd cite 86 MJ as what happens when he gets to just show up for the playoffs.

You made the statement that Lebron basically has no argument to be in MJ's tier offensively, so I provided playoff numbers to combat that notion. You then came out of nowhere and said Lebron was coasting too much during the RS. If you are concerned with total seasonal value.

Seasons sorted by PIPM Wins Added:

1. 09 LBJ
(GAP)
2. 89 MJ
3. 88 MJ
4. 13 LBJ
5. 16 LBJ
6. 91 MJ
7. 17 LBJ
8. 96 MJ
9. 10 LBJ
10. 92 MJ

In terms of BPM, an 8.0 is considered an MVP level season-Lebron has had 14 seasons touch that mark, while MJ had 10. Both had 4 seasons with a PER above 30 Even though, Lebron was "coasting," he still more than did his part. But this conversation has run its course, so I guess it doesn't matter.

Estimated Impact only goes up to 2013, and misses out on basically half of Lebron's career yet in terms of RS play,

1. 2009 Lebron
2. 2010 Lebron
3. 2013 Lebron

all rank above any MJ season in per-possession impact.

[Djoker]

You have to be a patreon to access Backpicks BPM. Ben Taylor showed a video of 3 straight year stretches, not all the individual PS they played. You can download the RAPTOR data here: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor

I listed their offensive numbers because you said MJ is at least a tier up from Lebron.

Also the version of RAPM you listed is considered kind of unreliable but nonetheless:

Keeping in mind PIPM is complete through the 2020 season:

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 9TH BEST SEASON per PIPM.

97 Jordan would be Lebron's 8TH BEST SEASON per TWPR.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 12TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to PIPM.

97 Jordan's PS would be the 8TH BEST PS RUN of Lebron's career according to RAPTOR.

When we look at stats that incorporate plus-minus, Jordan's 97 and 98 campaigns don't look especially good in comparison to Lebron's best seasons.

Yes Ben Taylor used 3 years data. Still... 1989-1991 Jordan has higher Backpicks BPM, AuPM and PIPM than both Cleveland and Miami versions of Lebron. As far as actual plus-minus data, 1997 Jordan would be 2nd in Lebron's career in RAPM in the regular season and 4th in Lebron's career in the playoffs. By the way ESPN's RPM has 1997 Jordan as the 5th best of Lebron's career.

I'm glad you mentioned RAPTOR. I found this link from FiveThirtyEight by the creators of the RAPTOR statistic. They ranked the top seasons in NBA history by WAR which is RAPTOR that also considers minutes played and pace. It combines regular season plus playoffs. Jordan ends up with the #1 spot (1991) and seven of the top 10 spots. Coincidentally RAPTOR supports my view that only 2009 Lebron is competitive with peak Jordan.

Top 10 by WAR:

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 2009 Lebron
3. 1989 Jordan
4. 1990 Jordan
5. 2016 Curry
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 1993 Jordan
8. 1996 Jordan
9. 1993 Jordan
10. 2015 Curry

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

At the end of the day we don't have plus-minus for MJ's peak but all the data we do have (1997 and 1998 + Ben Taylor's estimates for peak Jordan + RAPTOR/WAR) gives us a strong hunch that peak Jordan is more impactful.

In terms of four offensive box score metrics, Jordan is definitely a tier above. They are similar in creation, efficiency and turnovers while Jordan scored 5 more points/75. That's a dramatic difference in scoring volume.

And at the end of the day we are comparing individual players. Individual statistics matter more than anything else. Otherwise Draymond Green is a GOAT candidate.

WAR is liked VORP. It is impacted by the number of games you have played. So 91 Jordan playing more games lead to more WAR.

And no, just because YOU think simple box-score stats matter more, doesn't mean we all agree. And as I said, Lebron's impact metrics in Miami on offense are notably lower than other stints of Cleveland because he is better with the ball in his hands than without, yet he still compares well in the impact metrics. 09 and 10 is are the only years this was a case, where he had his high motor in the RS on defense.

Also, no one is saying that Lebron's 3 best seasons happened one after the other like with MJ. They are saying there are multiple years throughout his career where Lebron is better.

Like Lebron's 3 best PS runs per PIPM, are better than any of MJ's but they didn't happen in back to back years. Say with his 3 best total seasons although they didn't happen back to back. As I already listed, Lebron has several individual PS runs better than stack up better or just as well as Jordan's.

You said earlier that you didn't care for Taylor's Backpicks PlayVal metrics, because "we can't possibly measure that sort of thing, sorry buddy," yet here you use his creation estimates as somehow more reliable than his PlayVal stat?

Lebron is the only player in history to have a top 15 season in ScoreVal and PlayVal...and he did this twice (just barely missed doing this 3 times). You could reasonably say no player has ever had the combination of scoring and playmaking that Lebron has.

And you do realize that Lebron has the greatest 3-year PS PlayVal peak in history? You said before that it was a crap stat, because no way is Lebron can be that good and there is no way you can measure playmaking. Kind of contradictory. You also ignore that without Wade on the court from 12-14, Lebron's 3 year PS scoring is better than MJ's ever was in terms of volume (if you watched the Lebron vid).

You also don't mention the whole other side of the ball where Lebron is generally considered by most metrics, and his 2016 playoff run looks like the greatest defensive PS from a perimeter player ever per PIPM and RAPTOR.

Top 15 season in both ScoreVal and PlayVal is nice but what does that really tell us? We know Lebron combines scoring and playmaking really well. So did peak Jordan who had similar creation as peak Lebron except he scored a lot more. Ben Taylor himself said that Jordan was playmaking machine and has his Box Creation from 1989-1991 as one of the highest on record.

I am just citing some of these metrics because people on here like them. I don't particularly care for these aggregate metrics especially the box score based ones. We have the basic box score stats and can look at that. Trying to assign values to different box score categories is a somewhat fruitless endeavor and the value of a point, a defensive rebound etc. varies too much based on matchups, situations in games, era etc. That's why these analyses get correlations of like 0.6... by the way that's terrible.

As for RAPM data, there is definitely value in that despite the noise and it can supplement the box score stuff but we simply don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. We don't know whether peak MJ circa 1991 has better RAPM than peak Lebron, same or worse. We just don't know.

By the way that sample of Lebron w/o Wade in the playoffs is like a few hundred minutes. It's a miniscule sample size. I'm sure Jordan's scoring and assists went up dramatically in the times that Pippen sat. Miami Lebron shared playmaking duties with Wade in Miami but guess what Jordan did that with Pippen for basically all of his best years. He also played in the triangle. That proverbial sword cuts both ways and one can easily argue that Jordan's stats were more negatively affected by sharing the ball. Of course Jordan thrived in an off-ball role unlike Lebron.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Yes Ben Taylor used 3 years data. Still... 1989-1991 Jordan has higher Backpicks BPM, AuPM and PIPM than both Cleveland and Miami versions of Lebron. As far as actual plus-minus data, 1997 Jordan would be 2nd in Lebron's career in RAPM in the regular season and 4th in Lebron's career in the playoffs. By the way ESPN's RPM has 1997 Jordan as the 5th best of Lebron's career.

I'm glad you mentioned RAPTOR. I found this link from FiveThirtyEight by the creators of the RAPTOR statistic. They ranked the top seasons in NBA history by WAR which is RAPTOR that also considers minutes played and pace. It combines regular season plus playoffs. Jordan ends up with the #1 spot (1991) and seven of the top 10 spots. Coincidentally RAPTOR supports my view that only 2009 Lebron is competitive with peak Jordan.

Top 10 by WAR:

1. 1991 Jordan
2. 2009 Lebron
3. 1989 Jordan
4. 1990 Jordan
5. 2016 Curry
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 1993 Jordan
8. 1996 Jordan
9. 1993 Jordan
10. 2015 Curry

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-raptor-metric-works/

At the end of the day we don't have plus-minus for MJ's peak but all the data we do have (1997 and 1998 + Ben Taylor's estimates for peak Jordan + RAPTOR/WAR) gives us a strong hunch that peak Jordan is more impactful.

In terms of four offensive box score metrics, Jordan is definitely a tier above. They are similar in creation, efficiency and turnovers while Jordan scored 5 more points/75. That's a dramatic difference in scoring volume.

And at the end of the day we are comparing individual players. Individual statistics matter more than anything else. Otherwise Draymond Green is a GOAT candidate.

WAR is liked VORP. It is impacted by the number of games you have played. So 91 Jordan playing more games lead to more WAR.

And no, just because YOU think simple box-score stats matter more, doesn't mean we all agree. And as I said, Lebron's impact metrics in Miami on offense are notably lower than other stints of Cleveland because he is better with the ball in his hands than without, yet he still compares well in the impact metrics. 09 and 10 is are the only years this was a case, where he had his high motor in the RS on defense.

Also, no one is saying that Lebron's 3 best seasons happened one after the other like with MJ. They are saying there are multiple years throughout his career where Lebron is better.

Like Lebron's 3 best PS runs per PIPM, are better than any of MJ's but they didn't happen in back to back years. Say with his 3 best total seasons although they didn't happen back to back. As I already listed, Lebron has several individual PS runs better than stack up better or just as well as Jordan's.

You said earlier that you didn't care for Taylor's Backpicks PlayVal metrics, because "we can't possibly measure that sort of thing, sorry buddy," yet here you use his creation estimates as somehow more reliable than his PlayVal stat?

Lebron is the only player in history to have a top 15 season in ScoreVal and PlayVal...and he did this twice (just barely missed doing this 3 times). You could reasonably say no player has ever had the combination of scoring and playmaking that Lebron has.

And you do realize that Lebron has the greatest 3-year PS PlayVal peak in history? You said before that it was a crap stat, because no way is Lebron can be that good and there is no way you can measure playmaking. Kind of contradictory. You also ignore that without Wade on the court from 12-14, Lebron's 3 year PS scoring is better than MJ's ever was in terms of volume (if you watched the Lebron vid).

You also don't mention the whole other side of the ball where Lebron is generally considered by most metrics, and his 2016 playoff run looks like the greatest defensive PS from a perimeter player ever per PIPM and RAPTOR.

Top 15 season in both ScoreVal and PlayVal is nice but what does that really tell us? We know Lebron combines scoring and playmaking really well. So did peak Jordan who had similar creation as peak Lebron except he scored a lot more. Ben Taylor himself said that Jordan was playmaking machine and has his Box Creation from 1989-1991 as one of the highest on record.

I am just citing some of these metrics because people on here like them. I don't particularly care for these aggregate metrics especially the box score based ones. We have the basic box score stats and can look at that. Trying to assign values to different box score categories is a somewhat fruitless endeavor and the value of a point, a defensive rebound etc. varies too much based on matchups, situations in games, era etc. That's why these analyses get correlations of like 0.6... by the way that's terrible.

As for RAPM data, there is definitely value in that despite the noise and it can supplement the box score stuff but we simply don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. We don't know whether peak MJ circa 1991 has better RAPM than peak Lebron, same or worse. We just don't know.

By the way that sample of Lebron w/o Wade in the playoffs is like a few hundred minutes. It's a miniscule sample size. I'm sure Jordan's scoring and assists went up dramatically in the times that Pippen sat. Miami Lebron shared playmaking duties with Wade in Miami but guess what Jordan did that with Pippen for basically all of his best years. He also played in the triangle. That proverbial sword cuts both ways and one can easily argue that Jordan's stats were more negatively affected by sharing the ball. Of course Jordan thrived in an off-ball role unlike Lebron.

There is a vast difference between them in their overall playmaking value from that creation. No one is denying that MJ created a lot, just that he didn't find the highest value passes like Lebron and therefore there is a vast difference in how their PlayVal measures come out. As I said before, Lebron is #1 all-time in 3 yr PS PlayVal.

And if you are saying we don't know why 91 MJ is better than Lebron or vice-versa, then there is no need to argue with me. The whole point of my messages was to dispute the idea that Lebron doesn't have seasons worthy of being comparable to peak Jordan in certain facets etc., because considering the the statistics we have, it suggests he was better. You don't have to believe anything, but I am not going to sit around and let people make baseless claims that just aren't true.

Furthermore, BT said in his sampling, that there was no discernable difference between Jordan's scoring with and without Pippen on the floor in a recent patreon article. Furthermore, MJ has had roles where he was a primary ball-handler like 88 and 89 and statistically these years are still behind peak Lebron. Continuing on, on-ball passing like Lebron's pops more with the ball in your hands and is especially a strength of Lebron's game unlike Jordan who is a good, but non-historic passer. The offensive metrics suggest 2009 Lebron and 2010 Lebron on offense were generally more valuable than his Miami versions, yet people have come on this thread and suggested Lebron was more well-rounded in Miami. Well to me this screams that maybe he had the ball taken out of his hands and could exert less value on offense. I am just providing alternative explanations for this drop statistically.

P.S. we do have RAPM Estimates for all of the 90s by former workers of ESPN and while it is not exactly RAPM it has sound methodology(quarter to quarter breakdown from the boxscore instead of pure game level plus-minus) but considering people here believe heavily in the relevance of the box-score, the values shouldn't be too far-fetched for their tastes...
Jordan looks like no outlier during his peak years while Lebron during his peak years leads his contemporaries by multiple standard deviations.

[Djoker]

WAR is liked VORP. It is impacted by the number of games you have played. So 91 Jordan playing more games lead to more WAR.

And no, just because YOU think simple box-score stats matter more, doesn't mean we all agree. And as I said, Lebron's impact metrics in Miami on offense are notably lower than other stints of Cleveland because he is better with the ball in his hands than without, yet he still compares well in the impact metrics. 09 and 10 is are the only years this was a case, where he had his high motor in the RS on defense.

Also, no one is saying that Lebron's 3 best seasons happened one after the other like with MJ. They are saying there are multiple years throughout his career where Lebron is better.

Like Lebron's 3 best PS runs per PIPM, are better than any of MJ's but they didn't happen in back to back years. Say with his 3 best total seasons although they didn't happen back to back. As I already listed, Lebron has several individual PS runs better than stack up better or just as well as Jordan's.

You said earlier that you didn't care for Taylor's Backpicks PlayVal metrics, because "we can't possibly measure that sort of thing, sorry buddy," yet here you use his creation estimates as somehow more reliable than his PlayVal stat?

Lebron is the only player in history to have a top 15 season in ScoreVal and PlayVal...and he did this twice (just barely missed doing this 3 times). You could reasonably say no player has ever had the combination of scoring and playmaking that Lebron has.

And you do realize that Lebron has the greatest 3-year PS PlayVal peak in history? You said before that it was a crap stat, because no way is Lebron can be that good and there is no way you can measure playmaking. Kind of contradictory. You also ignore that without Wade on the court from 12-14, Lebron's 3 year PS scoring is better than MJ's ever was in terms of volume (if you watched the Lebron vid).

You also don't mention the whole other side of the ball where Lebron is generally considered by most metrics, and his 2016 playoff run looks like the greatest defensive PS from a perimeter player ever per PIPM and RAPTOR.

Top 15 season in both ScoreVal and PlayVal is nice but what does that really tell us? We know Lebron combines scoring and playmaking really well. So did peak Jordan who had similar creation as peak Lebron except he scored a lot more. Ben Taylor himself said that Jordan was playmaking machine and has his Box Creation from 1989-1991 as one of the highest on record.

I am just citing some of these metrics because people on here like them. I don't particularly care for these aggregate metrics especially the box score based ones. We have the basic box score stats and can look at that. Trying to assign values to different box score categories is a somewhat fruitless endeavor and the value of a point, a defensive rebound etc. varies too much based on matchups, situations in games, era etc. That's why these analyses get correlations of like 0.6... by the way that's terrible.

As for RAPM data, there is definitely value in that despite the noise and it can supplement the box score stuff but we simply don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. We don't know whether peak MJ circa 1991 has better RAPM than peak Lebron, same or worse. We just don't know.

By the way that sample of Lebron w/o Wade in the playoffs is like a few hundred minutes. It's a miniscule sample size. I'm sure Jordan's scoring and assists went up dramatically in the times that Pippen sat. Miami Lebron shared playmaking duties with Wade in Miami but guess what Jordan did that with Pippen for basically all of his best years. He also played in the triangle. That proverbial sword cuts both ways and one can easily argue that Jordan's stats were more negatively affected by sharing the ball. Of course Jordan thrived in an off-ball role unlike Lebron.

There is a vast difference between them in their overall playmaking value from that creation. No one is denying that MJ created a lot, just that he didn't find the highest value passes like Lebron and therefore there is a vast difference in how their PlayVal measures come out. As I said before, Lebron is #1 all-time in 3 yr PS PlayVal.

And if you are saying we don't know why 91 MJ is better than Lebron or vice-versa, then there is no need to argue with me. The whole point of my messages was to dispute the idea that Lebron doesn't have seasons worthy of being comparable to peak Jordan in certain facets etc., because considering the the statistics we have, it suggests he was better. You don't have to believe anything, but I am not going to sit around and let people make baseless claims that just aren't true.

Furthermore, BT said in his sampling, that there was no discernable difference between Jordan's scoring with and without Pippen on the floor in a recent patreon article. Furthermore, MJ has had roles where he was a primary ball-handler like 88 and 89 and statistically these years are still behind peak Lebron. Continuing on, on-ball passing like Lebron's pops more with the ball in your hands and is especially a strength of Lebron's game unlike Jordan who is a good, but non-historic passer. The offensive metrics suggest 2009 Lebron and 2010 Lebron on offense were generally more valuable than his Miami versions, yet people have come on this thread and suggested Lebron was more well-rounded in Miami. Well to me this screams that maybe he had the ball taken out of his hands and could exert less value on offense. I am just providing alternative explanations for this drop statistically.

P.S. we do have RAPM Estimates for all of the 90s by former workers of ESPN and while it is not exactly RAPM it has sound methodology(quarter to quarter breakdown from the boxscore instead of pure game level plus-minus) but considering people here believe heavily in the relevance of the box-score, the values shouldn't be too far-fetched for their tastes...
Jordan looks like no outlier during his peak years while Lebron during his peak years leads his contemporaries by multiple standard deviations.

Yes Lebron found and executed more difficult passes. I never deny this. But Jordan created so much pressure with his scoring attracting double and triple teams that his teammates were often times open and he didn't need a fancy pass.

I'm saying we don't have RAPM for peak Jordan. Without play-by-play you can't have plus-minus. Estimates are just that... estimates. I remember PHILA years ago actually broke down a bunch of peak Jordan games from 1990-1992 over a 100 games IIRC and got some incredible impact numbers. Not saying that data is reliable but it's a start.

You discounted multiyear PIPM, BPM, RAPM, RPM, WAR that I posted. All those numbers either show peak Jordan clearly ahead of Lebron or 1997 Jordan (in case of RAPM and RPM) being competitive with peak Lebron. There is the occasional stat that supports Lebron but the majority support Jordan. And that along with better box stats is why most people have peak Jordan over peak Lebron. It's actually you who is in the minority here not me.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Top 15 season in both ScoreVal and PlayVal is nice but what does that really tell us? We know Lebron combines scoring and playmaking really well. So did peak Jordan who had similar creation as peak Lebron except he scored a lot more. Ben Taylor himself said that Jordan was playmaking machine and has his Box Creation from 1989-1991 as one of the highest on record.

I am just citing some of these metrics because people on here like them. I don't particularly care for these aggregate metrics especially the box score based ones. We have the basic box score stats and can look at that. Trying to assign values to different box score categories is a somewhat fruitless endeavor and the value of a point, a defensive rebound etc. varies too much based on matchups, situations in games, era etc. That's why these analyses get correlations of like 0.6... by the way that's terrible.

As for RAPM data, there is definitely value in that despite the noise and it can supplement the box score stuff but we simply don't have plus-minus data prior to 1997. We don't know whether peak MJ circa 1991 has better RAPM than peak Lebron, same or worse. We just don't know.

By the way that sample of Lebron w/o Wade in the playoffs is like a few hundred minutes. It's a miniscule sample size. I'm sure Jordan's scoring and assists went up dramatically in the times that Pippen sat. Miami Lebron shared playmaking duties with Wade in Miami but guess what Jordan did that with Pippen for basically all of his best years. He also played in the triangle. That proverbial sword cuts both ways and one can easily argue that Jordan's stats were more negatively affected by sharing the ball. Of course Jordan thrived in an off-ball role unlike Lebron.

There is a vast difference between them in their overall playmaking value from that creation. No one is denying that MJ created a lot, just that he didn't find the highest value passes like Lebron and therefore there is a vast difference in how their PlayVal measures come out. As I said before, Lebron is #1 all-time in 3 yr PS PlayVal.

And if you are saying we don't know why 91 MJ is better than Lebron or vice-versa, then there is no need to argue with me. The whole point of my messages was to dispute the idea that Lebron doesn't have seasons worthy of being comparable to peak Jordan in certain facets etc., because considering the the statistics we have, it suggests he was better. You don't have to believe anything, but I am not going to sit around and let people make baseless claims that just aren't true.

Furthermore, BT said in his sampling, that there was no discernable difference between Jordan's scoring with and without Pippen on the floor in a recent patreon article. Furthermore, MJ has had roles where he was a primary ball-handler like 88 and 89 and statistically these years are still behind peak Lebron. Continuing on, on-ball passing like Lebron's pops more with the ball in your hands and is especially a strength of Lebron's game unlike Jordan who is a good, but non-historic passer. The offensive metrics suggest 2009 Lebron and 2010 Lebron on offense were generally more valuable than his Miami versions, yet people have come on this thread and suggested Lebron was more well-rounded in Miami. Well to me this screams that maybe he had the ball taken out of his hands and could exert less value on offense. I am just providing alternative explanations for this drop statistically.

P.S. we do have RAPM Estimates for all of the 90s by former workers of ESPN and while it is not exactly RAPM it has sound methodology(quarter to quarter breakdown from the boxscore instead of pure game level plus-minus) but considering people here believe heavily in the relevance of the box-score, the values shouldn't be too far-fetched for their tastes...
Jordan looks like no outlier during his peak years while Lebron during his peak years leads his contemporaries by multiple standard deviations.

Yes Lebron found and executed more difficult passes. I never deny this. But Jordan created so much pressure with his scoring attracting double and triple teams that his teammates were often times open and he didn't need a fancy pass.

I'm saying we don't have RAPM for peak Jordan. Without play-by-play you can't have plus-minus. Estimates are just that... estimates. I remember PHILA years ago actually broke down a bunch of peak Jordan games from 1990-1992 over a 100 games IIRC and got some incredible impact numbers. Not saying that data is reliable but it's a start.

You discounted multiyear PIPM, BPM, RAPM, RPM, WAR that I posted. All those numbers either show peak Jordan clearly ahead of Lebron or 1997 Jordan (in case of RAPM and RPM) being competitive with peak Lebron. There is the occasional stat that supports Lebron but the majority support Jordan. And that along with better box stats is why most people have peak Jordan over peak Lebron. It's actually you who is in the minority here not me.

Huh, you must not have read anything I wrote correctly, because I didn't mention anything about you being in the minority or your numbers being wrong? All I said that Lebron's best seasons didn't happen back to back and I already proved how multiple runs that beat Jordan in PIPM and RAPTOR. We are talking single-year peaks here, so doesn't it make sense to split up the PS runs in single year stretches? That's all I did, so I don't get your qualms. Unless you just glossed over the mountains of numbers that outright said multiple Lebron seasons are comparable to MJ, then I don't where you are getting "the rare statistic." That just simply isn't the case.

Also fancy passes doesn't make you a better playmaker, Lebron's a better playmaker because he hit more high-leverage passes that lead to higher expected value on his teammates shots. And as I said in the earlier post and as I will say again, I know Jordan put pressure on the defense, he just didn't pick defenses apart with his passing like Lebron and therefore that creates a value difference between. Ben Taylor goes over this in his youtube videos. Heck Ben Taylor even put it in his writeup of MJ- "In over 1,100 offensive possessions tracked, MJ hit over 2 “good” passes per 100 with a passing profile slightly behind Dwyane Wade’s and Kobe Bryant’s." He basically says that MJ is in the Wade and Bryant tier as a passer, which is good but clearly below Lebron.

For instance since you seem to find some kind of value in Ben Taylor's stats since you use them:

Lebron had a 3yr PS ScoreVal Peak of 2.3 and 3yr PS PlayVal Peak of 2.5. Jordan's 3 year peaks in this are 2.7 and 1.9 respectively. Based off these numbers it would suggest there is a bigger difference between their playmaking than there is between their scoring, hence suggesting there is a meaningful difference between them as playmakers if you consider there to be meaningful differences between them as scorers. Am I not justified in pointing this out considering someone said Lebron has no argument to be in Jordan's tier as an offensive player? It isn't about cherrypicking, it is about being accepting of other opinions which you seem to have an issue with.

Also don't know why you being so confrontational over a discussion when all I did was provide the very same stats that suggest Lebron's peak seasons were better. Is the point of this not discuss? And once again, what is the point of arguing with me, when all I did was provide evidence that individual Lebron seasons can match up with those of Jordan? Notice I haven't cast a vote, and I have only been responding to posts. I didn't say anything about having MJ over LBJ, all I pushed back against was the idea that there is no evidence for Lebron being in the same tier as Jordan. I don't think you really are understanding what I am saying, because you are arguing against several points I have not made.

[VanWest82]

You made the statement that Lebron basically has no argument to be in MJ's tier offensively.

I never said this. You must be confusing me with another poster.

What I've said was 1. pre-2012 Lebron was an incomplete player (something Lebron has acknowledged) because of his subpar shooting and post game. 2. from 2014-19 he coasted in the regular season vs. an historically weak conference and so focusing only on the playoffs in those years doesn't make a lot of sense, especially vs. someone like MJ who played hard all year every year to grind out 60 and 70 win seasons.

[LukaTheGOAT]

You made the statement that Lebron basically has no argument to be in MJ's tier offensively.

I never said this. You must be confusing me with another poster.

What I've said was 1. pre-2012 Lebron was an incomplete player (something Lebron has acknowledged) because of his subpar shooting and post game. 2. from 2014-19 he coasted in the regular season vs. an historically weak conference and so focusing only on the playoffs in those years doesn't make a lot of sense, especially vs. someone like MJ who played hard all year every year to grind out 60 and 70 win seasons.

On page 2 you wrote "In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias - something like an Ostrich effect - required to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11." I interpreted that as Lebron having no argument because of this statement. I apologize for my incorrect misinterpretation.

P.S. I did explain why I don't believe his coasting didn't actually drop him in RS impact in comparison to someone like Jordan, but yeah I think this thread is done with. Pleasure arguing with you and see you in the next debate thread I guess

[VanWest82]

On page 2 you wrote "In other words, there's a fairly pronounced cognitive bias - something like an Ostrich effect - required to call 09 the GOAT season. We have to live with the knowledge that Lebron was undeniably flawed but that due to the specific circumstances of that post season he did not get exposed like in 07, 08, 10, and 11." I interpreted that as Lebron having no argument because of this statement. I apologize for my incorrect misinterpretation.

I stand by my comment about 09. I don't think he has a case that year as the GOAT player. As impressive as it was it just feels like revisionist history to me to claim that was the best season ever all because he got uncharacteristically hot for two weeks. Maybe best ever statistically but that's as far as I'd go. 2013 feels like the much better argument. And for clarity, I do think Lebron got to MJ's level at various points during playoffs 12-18, just that he had to game the system a lot of those years in order to do it. Thanks for the discussion.