Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Basketball reference has projections for almost every Wizards players for stats. Comparing those projections versus what they got last season leads me to believe the Wizards should see a significant improvement.

Gafford, Harrell, and Bryant are projected to out perform Lopez, Len, Gafford, Wagner, Bryant and AP (limited minutes last season for Gafford and Bryant).

A projected wash in production for Beal, Bertrans, Neto and gill.

Slight improvements for avdija and Rui.

Slight improvements for dinwiddie and kcp over Westbrook and Matthews.

A huge improvement for kuzma over bonga, Robinson, Bell, Troy, and Hutchinson.

A slight downgrade for holiday versus ish smith.

I said Tommy is a genius the day the darned trade was announced.

[bsilver]

Assuming that Bryant comes back close to his old self there will be a problem dividing minutes among three centers. Aside from Beal, they may be our best 3 players.

Bryant is the logical player to move to PF since he's a 3pt threat. That leaves too many PFs. So Rui or Kuzma have to play SF.

Assuming a 10 man rotation, minutes would be something like:
C - Harrel 24, Gafford 24
PF - Bryant 24, Kuzma 20, Rui 4
SF - Rui 24, Deni 20, KCP 4
SG - Beal 34, KCP 14
PG - Dinwiddie 30, Neto 18

That leaves out Bertans and Holiday. Bertans is clearly not one of our top front court players, so should be left out. Holiday may not be as bad as he was yesterday, so some days he may replace Neto in the rotation, or split time.

I was thinking about this very thing... I wonder with Bryant's ability to shoot the 3 and spread the court if there couldn't be some rotation minutes where the two of them are sharing the floor.

I would think it would be very specific to countering lineups from other teams.

I am unsure if it should be a "regular rotation"? I think the way that Harrel moves, he would be the player to play PF?

On offense, Harrel would have to play the low post since he has no outside game. On defense, I don't think either he or Bryant are great running around on the perimeter. Bertans can't guard any position so either would be better than him.

[NatP4]

Thomas Bryant cannot play the PF position. That will NEVER happen.

If he returns from injury and Harrell and Gafford are healthy, they will look at trades. Same thing with then Rui/Kuzma/Bertans situation. Rui is the future, Bertans is a core piece (and a good one at that) on a large contract, Kuzma will be on the trading block. If you can keep guys from becoming disgruntled, it’s really great to have solid rotational 3rd stringers at every position.

[NatP4]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

[DCZards]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

I prefer Kuz to Bertans. He’s a better player on a better contract.

With improved 3pt shooting by Deni and Rui and the addition of Kispert, I would trade a one-dimensional player like Bertans before moving Kuzma.

[dckingsfan]

I was thinking about this very thing... I wonder with Bryant's ability to shoot the 3 and spread the court if there couldn't be some rotation minutes where the two of them are sharing the floor.

I would think it would be very specific to countering lineups from other teams.

I am unsure if it should be a "regular rotation"? I think the way that Harrel moves, he would be the player to play PF?

On offense, Harrel would have to play the low post since he has no outside game. On defense, I don't think either he or Bryant are great running around on the perimeter. Bertans can't guard any position so either would be better than him.

First, you might find that you and I are among a minority thinking you can't have Bryant and Harrell on the floor at the same time.

Agreed on the offensive end of the court.

I think Harrell is perfectly capable of guarding a pretty significant group of PFs. I am thinking I am a minority in that thinking. I don't think I can says the same for Bryant, especially while he is still returning from injury.

Against some teams, I think a Harrell/Bryant rotation would work for limited minutes.

We are in Doc's Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread after all - I think it worth discussing.

[dckingsfan]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

A couple of questions on this.
1) It seems like Neto is outplaying Holiday in a big way right now. I assume you think that will change with a larger sample size?

2) Why wouldn't you have the backup minutes for Beal going to KCP?

[NatP4]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

A couple of questions on this.
1) It seems like Neto is outplaying Holiday in a big way right now. I assume you think that will change with a larger sample size?

2) Why wouldn't you have the backup minutes for Beal going to KCP?

Yeah that’s where I would have the rotation shifting towards by the playoffs:Kispert getting rotation minutes and Avdija playing the bulk of the minutes at the 3, eventually phasing out Holiday.

Right now, I like the guard tandem off the bench and think Holiday will do just fine. KCP can play the bulk of the minutes at the 3 while Avdija eases back into things.

[NatP4]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

I prefer Kuz to Bertans. He’s a better player on a better contract.

With improved 3pt shooting by Deni and Rui and the addition of Kispert, I would trade a one-dimensional player like Bertans before moving Kuzma.

What makes you say that Kuzma is better than Bertans?

[DCZards]

Personally, I would do this when fully healthy:

Dinwiddie 28 Holliday 16 Neto 4
Beal 32 Neto 16
KCP 24 Avdija 24
Rui 24 Bertans 24
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

Transition to this in the 2nd half of the season when Kispert gets comfortable and Avdija is in the middle of a breakout season:

Dinwiddie 28 Neto 20
Beal 32 KCP 16
Avdija 28 Kispert 16 KCP 4
Bertans 28 Rui 20
Gafford 28 Harrell 20

I prefer Kuz to Bertans. He’s a better player on a better contract.

With improved 3pt shooting by Deni and Rui and the addition of Kispert, I would trade a one-dimensional player like Bertans before moving Kuzma.

What makes you say that Kuzma is better than Bertans?

Kuzma is a better defender, rebounder and ballhandler than Davis.

[GoneShammGone]

I prefer Kuz to Bertans. He’s a better player on a better contract.

With improved 3pt shooting by Deni and Rui and the addition of Kispert, I would trade a one-dimensional player like Bertans before moving Kuzma.

What makes you say that Kuzma is better than Bertans?

Kuzma is a better defender, rebounder and ballhandler than Davis.

Zards... I'm with you as far as Kuzma being more valuable than Bertans at the moment.... but to me that is more reason to look to trade Kuz.

The way I look at it, neither of these two guys is part of the Wizard's future, and right now, Bertans is basically a negative asset. We'd probably have to attach a pick to get rid of him with that salary and his current level of play. So why not look for a deal for the guy who might bring back something positive? Maybe we get a late first or early second and an expiring contract for Kuz? I don't know. But its gotta be eaiser than trying to trade Davis.

Either way, I think both of these guys are likely to become less relevant to the Wizards on the court as Rui comes back up to speed and TB comes back from injury. I'd look to trade Kuz, and cross my fingers and hope Davis can show something to rehabilitate his value.

[NatP4]

I’m struggling to figure out how Kuzma finished dead last in On/Off differential with the Lakers, while Bertans finished 1st on the Wizards in 2020-2021.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I’m struggling to figure out how Kuzma finished dead last in On/Off differential with the Lakers, while Bertans finished 1st on the Wizards in 2020-2021.

LeBron and AD are better. Kuzma in to replace either was a negative.

Also, Kuzma didn't like his role.

[Dat2U]

Thomas Bryant cannot play the PF position. That will NEVER happen.

If he returns from injury and Harrell and Gafford are healthy, they will look at trades. Same thing with then Rui/Kuzma/Bertans situation. Rui is the future, Bertans is a core piece (and a good one at that) on a large contract, Kuzma will be on the trading block. If you can keep guys from becoming disgruntled, it’s really great to have solid rotational 3rd stringers at every position.

We already have 6 PFs on the roster.

Yet for some reason, it's suggested to move non-PFs to play an already overcrowded position. I don't get it. Guys generally ALWAYS better at their natural position. Harrell's skill screams undersized C and Bryant barely had the foot speed to stay with Cs before he got hurt.

Bryant cannot play PF.
Harrell shouldn't play PF.

These two things should be absolutes.

[Dat2U]

Rui vs Kuz... advantage Kuz. I think you wait for Rui to get back before you make a decision on Kuz. I'm not sure Kuz isn't better player, simply because there's no confidence issues. Kuz's awareness and bball IQ have also been better than advertised.

[closg00]

This was mentioned in the game thread, but the team is missing the presence of big body centers like Lopez/Len, gonna need one against the likes of Allen & Embiid

[mhd]

This was mentioned in the game thread, but the team is missing the presence of big body centers like Lopez/Len, gonna need one against the likes of Allen & Embiid

Yeah, RLO & Len were perfect in that role. As vets, they won't pout if they are not playing. Bryant is still young and will want PT when he returns (especially considering he's a FA). It might cause a rift in team chemistry potentially when he returns.

[NatP4]

This was mentioned in the game thread, but the team is missing the presence of big body centers like Lopez/Len, gonna need one against the likes of Allen & Embiid

Also, If Harrell or Gafford simply rolls an ankle and has to come out, we have no other C on the roster. I guess we would go small with Kuzma at the 5?

[nate33]

This was mentioned in the game thread, but the team is missing the presence of big body centers like Lopez/Len, gonna need one against the likes of Allen & Embiid

There's a chance that Bryant could be that guy. He doesn't have great footspeed to switch, but he is a pretty big dude who could theoretically be a very good post defender. In the past, he has been disappointingly weak in his lower body, but it wouldn't surprise me if he has put a lot of work in the weight room while rehabbing his knee. He has even made comments about getting stronger, specifically with his legs.

[nate33]

This was mentioned in the game thread, but the team is missing the presence of big body centers like Lopez/Len, gonna need one against the likes of Allen & Embiid

Also, If Harrell or Gafford simply rolls an ankle and has to come out, we have no other C on the roster. I guess we would go small with Kuzma at the 5?

Rui should be back soon enough. He will be our emergency 3rd center until Bryant gets healthy.