Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

[fleet]

We (many) underestimated how much a project that Pat represents. I now have unfortunately come around on his rebounding in that he lacks instincts and aggression to track them down. That doesn’t often get fixed if it can. I had posted earlier with coldfish how little feel he has in the PnR game. He has all the tools for all of it. IMO he has poor instincts for this game. Some folks say he has a poor motor, but to me it looks like he doesn’t process things very well on the court.

That really became apparent with he play, pretty sure it was the Pelicans game, where he poked the ball away and just stood there staring at it for a second before reacting and it allowed the defender to recover and get it back.

I agree that he isn't aggressive.

Now to be fair regarding rebounds, on offense, he's the 5 option guy and largely relegated to hanging out near the 3pt line, which limits his rebounding opportunities. On defense, he's been guarding the opponent's #1 option, again, mainly on the perimeter.

I used to hold that opinion a little bit, but even now his rebounding strategy when he is in the scheme is to block someone out and hope the ball comes out in front of him. He does not appear to have the ability to anticipate where the rebound is coming off the rim, like at all. And is late reacting.

[MrSparkle]

The one thing I’ll say is we won at a pretty good rate last season (until the deadline, *and considering* our awful talent depth chart, including our awful 1-way starters Coby, Lauri and Wendell), with Pat being the 3rd most full-time player after Zach & Coby.

This season we’re 3-0 with him starting at 27 mpg. His TS is 72% on 9% Usage.

Too much obsessing with individual performance and motor.

A bad player is really obvious to me. Kornet; Hutchison; Snell; Arci (sorry, great heart and hustle but not NBA rotation caliber); Coby/Lauri on the defensive ends. Furthermore, they’re really bad when they can’t play more than 1 position without being a total liability.

Pat gets a ton of cred. for just being able to play 3 spots throughout the course of a game. I don’t get why everyone sees him getting entitlement minutes. If Markieff Morris or PJ Tucker were here, maybe they’d start due to experience. But Pat is doing a serviceable job on a bum ankle, which is a good floor to put him in. I think he’s more exposed when he has to be a #2 option with Demar, but I hope he gets comfortable in that role.

NBA results have little to do with Summer League. He needs burn in-game. If he busts, looks stale or regresses by season 3 - you know not to mess with his extension. If he pans out even into a true 3D starter we’re getting much better value than Okoro, Okongwu, Hayes and Deni.

[fleet]

^^^

Usage conversion rates sometimes remind me of per 36 min projections. Just saying there are reasons. Fair point to bring that up. I will keep hope alive

[Ice Man]

T I don’t get why everyone sees him getting entitlement minutes.

I wouldn't say entitlement minutes. I would say that for the second year running he doesn't have true competition for his job. Last year he was our default SF. This year, his primary challenger at PF is, who, Alize Johnson? A #50 pick with 400 career NBA minutes.

[Salo23]

I’m underwhelmed by what I’ve seen, but Billy Donovan made some great points if we wanted to make excuses for Pat so far…

1) Training camp was limited due to his ankle injury, not enough practice reps or time to get acclimated playing with almost a completely new cast of teammates
2) His conditioning isn’t up to par due to the ankle injury
3) New shoulder injury from diving for a loose ball

I think we need to be more patient and give him time to build some rhythm and confidence instead of benching him for Javonte like some are suggesting. But I absolutely would package P-Will for a “win now” player if the opportunity presents itself.

[waffle]

I want to see better D consistently. The rest will come

[madvillian]

Stock is a hold to me, neutral rating. His shot looks smoother and he's in excellent physical shape judging by his fat ass and chiseled upper body, he put the work in on the squat rack this offseason and the treadmill.

That said, still doesn't have much of a handle or more than a one dribble pullup as a go to move. Still doesn't move without the ball that well or impact games like you think he could with his length defensively. Seems a step slow.

No reason to do anything but keep giving him 20-25 minutes a game and hope the light goes on for him at some point over the next couple years. If the Bulls are somehow a very good (50+) win team maybe you consider cashing him into a final piece in the offseason, but not before then.

[sco]

I’m underwhelmed by what I’ve seen, but Billy Donovan made some great points if we wanted to make excuses for Pat so far…

1) Training camp was limited due to his ankle injury, not enough practice reps or time to get acclimated playing with almost a completely new cast of teammates
2) His conditioning isn’t up to par due to the ankle injury
3) New shoulder injury from diving for a loose ball

I think we need to be more patient and give him time to build some rhythm and confidence instead of benching him for Javonte like some are suggesting. But I absolutely would package P-Will for a “win now” player if the opportunity presents itself.

I agree. I think Pat needs to keep firing-up 3's, not just because they're going in, but his current value is as a floor spacer for DD and Zach. This season, I'd be fine if he can just do a good (not elite) job of defending the opponent's best F and make 3's at about 36% on 4 attempts a game.

[coldfish]

As I said in a different thread, I think the short term role for him is as a pick setter. Why?
- It forces him to be involved with the offense
- It plays to his strengths where he can just roll to the hoop and finish or take a 3.
- The team really needs a pick setter other than Vuc.

As far as the motor comments, I think Ball, Caruso and Javonte are really making Pat look bad in that regard. We are now getting to see what a high motor player looks like and its making Pat's low motor rather obvious in comparison. Last year with Wendell, Lauri, Coby, Sato, etc. in the rotation it really wasn't as obvious that Pat wasn't moving around as much as he should . . . because no one did.

[CaPiTanAK]

As I said in a different thread, I think the short term role for him is as a pick setter. Why?
- It forces him to be involved with the offense
- It plays to his strengths where he can just roll to the hoop and finish or take a 3.
- The team really needs a pick setter other than Vuc.

As far as the motor comments, I think Ball, Caruso and Javonte are really making Pat look bad in that regard. We are now getting to see what a high motor player looks like and its making Pat's low motor rather obvious in comparison. Last year with Wendell, Lauri, Coby, Sato, etc. in the rotation it really wasn't as obvious that Pat wasn't moving around as much as he should . . . because no one did.

PWill despite his flaws is probably in the best environment for his future development, meaning being on a team full of high energy level guys, understanding but knowledgeable coach, all defensive pro players, and high level veterans that should be able to guide him on what things he need to do to be a great player in this league.

If he doesn’t improvement by Xmas, I’m shipping him out and writing him as a lost cause. All eyes are on him to be a drastically better player that where he was a year ago.

[pipfan]

Would you do PWill/DJJ for Grant
Detroit saves $, gets a 4 man prospect to play with CUnningham, Bey and Hayes and they lose more games now

Bulls get a PERFECT fit now, but the $ becomes an issue soon. Grant would give us someone with experience to throw at KD and Giannis

[kodo]

Would you do PWill/DJJ for Grant
Detroit saves $, gets a 4 man prospect to play with CUnningham, Bey and Hayes and they lose more games now

Bulls get a PERFECT fit now, but the $ becomes an issue soon. Grant would give us someone with experience to throw at KD and Giannis

I would, but I doubt Michael would and he's the one that has to pay this team.
Lonzo - $20M
Derozan - $27M
Lavine - $40M
Vucevic - $24M
Caruso - $8.6M
+
Jerami - $20M

That's a lot of money for a non-contender.

I think there's a 99% chance we don't trade DJJ, his expiring contract was the asset we were after not DJJ the on court player. We need his expiring, we're not looking it as a way to inflate our roster expense. Same for Troy Brown's $5M. Any trade that conveys these two guys' expiring contracts into long term expenses probably doesn't happen IMO.

If we trade Patrick or Coby, it will probably be have to be for other small contracts in the $5M-$7M range.

[Salo23]

Would you do PWill/DJJ for Grant
Detroit saves $, gets a 4 man prospect to play with CUnningham, Bey and Hayes and they lose more games now

Bulls get a PERFECT fit now, but the $ becomes an issue soon. Grant would give us someone with experience to throw at KD and Giannis

Detroit reportedly tried to move up from the 7th pick to number 4 at last year’s draft, but AKME rejected their offer. Why? Because Detroit was going to take P-Will at 4.

I agree Jerami Grant would be a great fit on this roster moving forward, but I doubt Detroit is willing to trade him. However, we know their scouting department was high on Williams last year. If Grant were to become available later in the season for whatever reason, I’m sure P-Will would need to be included in whatever proposal we had to offer.

[coldfish]

Would you do PWill/DJJ for Grant
Detroit saves $, gets a 4 man prospect to play with CUnningham, Bey and Hayes and they lose more games now

Bulls get a PERFECT fit now, but the $ becomes an issue soon. Grant would give us someone with experience to throw at KD and Giannis

If you do Patrick and Coby, its $15m off NEXT year's salary bill. Grant makes $20m.

If the Bulls are in a good position and this might put them over the top, you might be able to talk the Reinsdorfs into it. Given that Vucevic and Grant expire the year after, it would be a 1 year, not too deep, dip into the luxury tax.

IMO,
Ball / Caruso / Ayo
Lavine / Thomas
DDR / Brown / DJJ
Grant / Green
Vucevic / Alize / Bradley
is a contender. Not a dynasty level contender but not someone to be written off either.

[Jcool0]

I don't think Jerami Grant is a needle mover. Not sure anything changes with him on the team. I think he is pretty much maxed out as a player.

[Evil_Headband]

Just imagine what this thread would be like if he weren’t shooting 60%.

[MrSparkle]

Wait, what? Jerami Grant is an all-star on $20m. I don’t think Pat/DJJ or Coby gets entertained, and this is one move I would make all day if Troy Weaver was drunk and accepting calls.

[the ultimates]

I've said this in other threads over the years about young players and Bulls fans and I'll say it again. Bulls fans talk about wanting youth, high ceiling, high upside guys but damn do they not want to give those players time to develop.

[DuckIII]

Would you do PWill/DJJ for Grant

I love Pat and despite this massive 3 game sample size in year 2, still see a guy with all the tools to be a star (if he gets his head right).

But definitely yes. I can’t see why Detroit would even consider it though.

[coldfish]

Some of the terrible numbers on Pat:
- He has 1 assist on the season in 3 games. Basically last on the team.
- He has 1 steal and no blocks on the season. Again, basically last on the team.
- In 3 games he has 9 rebounds. That's a 5.7% rebounding rate. That's basically Ben Gordon level rebounding.
- His 9.0 PER is pretty bad but when you realize he only had a 10.5 last year . . . its a trend.

Hopefully he is just sore and out of shape. His hustle stats are terrible and the eye test is just as bad.

You really have to wonder how much trade value he has and when is the appropriate time to cut bait with him.

The guy he really looks like at this point is Tony Snell.