Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

[kulaz3000]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

[Rowland Garrett]

We (many) underestimated how much a project that Pat represents. I now have unfortunately come around on his rebounding in that he lacks instincts and aggression to track them down. That doesn’t often get fixed if it can. I had posted earlier with coldfish how little feel he has in the PnR game. He has all the tools for all of it. IMO he has poor instincts for this game. Some folks say he has a poor motor, but to me it looks like he doesn’t process things very well on the court.

Nailed it.

He takes a second or more to react, makes him look lazy (low motor.) I don't know if that's true or not. But I do believe in time it will come. He needs a lot of 1 on 1 coaching so he reacts instead of thinks.

????????????

During the Summer League, he was the 1st option, and IMO the coaches pushed him to take over games. And he demonstrated that he has the ability to do it.

On this team he is the 5th option. So, he has a completely different role.

He needs to:

1) Play good defense for the PF position.

2) Rebound and keep his man off the boards.

3) Hit open shots when the ball comes to him and he's open.

4) If he has to put the ball on the floor, he should focus on the mid-range game, and shoot pull-up jumpers so that he doesn't leave himself out of position for getting back on defense.

And again IMO, he has the skill set to do all of these things without having to over extend himself.

However, I do believe that he has to get used to hitting open shots. Because his instinct is to put the ball on the floor and use his athleticism to drive to the basket. But that's not his role.

He was by far the best athlete in the summer games. But even then I saw the same hesitancy in him. If you don't agree, I'm cool with that.

But I'm right and your wrong.

[BullChit]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

Listened to that today.

If there is one thing we certainly can't complain about this season it's Billy's rotations so far so I was very comforted by that comment.

[coldfish]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

Translation: I'm not happy with Alize but really happy with Caruso. Caruso and TBJ will come on early for DDR and Pat. When Vuc and Lavine are out, Pat will play center with DDR running the show. We will spam pick and roll with those two like its a bad videogame.

We already saw it some with Detroit.

[LateNight]

The problem with analyzing PW is everyone is affected by sunk cost fallacy. Because he was drafted high, people are having a tough time analyzing him. That decision should not impact the next decision. Just imagine if he was drafted 30th instead -

You probably wouldn’t say he was underperforming. But he also might not be starting.

If he was draft 30 and you were comparing him to Kawhi at all people would be ecstatic - but because he was 4th, people are upset that he isn’t executing at a higher level. But in reality the only thing that’s changed is your perspective.

While it affects his salary, his draft position should really have no impact on how we move forward with him. From a team building standpoint, Pat is the player he is regardless of where we drafted him.

[FriedRise]

I don't think we necessarily need to bench Pat, but I'd like to see him staggered with DDR more to lead the bench unit. Those two seem to have a pretty good synergy in their game, with Pat being able to cover for DDR defensively, set great screens, space the floor, while at the same time be more of a second option on offense.

I'd try a lineup of:
Caruso / TBJ or Ayo or DJJ / DDR / Pat / Alize

Doing that also gets you the benefit of overlapping Javonte with the starters.

[logical_art]

What makes grant good? He’s a lightweight at his spot and khawhi posts him up regularly in matchups wouldn’t pat be bigger next season if he keeps adding muscle ? Idk I just don’t know enough about him

He's just a much better player, it's that simple. Better defender, more disruptive, higher volume shooter, has shown an ability to get to the line, has shown the ability to be a high-value role player on a good team, and a big scorer on a bad team. His 7'3" wingspan helps him cover a lot of ground, which is great for the way we play D.

Rolling the dice on Williams only makes sense if you're confident he's going to be a star. If you're not, you might as well find a guy whose timeline coincides with Zach, Vuc, and DeRozan.

Watch on YouTube

There's just no comparison on the defensive end, IMO. Grant's on a different planet than PWill.

Rolling the dice does not equal confident; rolling the dice is by definition a gamble. I think when you combine Williams superior upside and youth with the risk that Grant is just a one year wonder, in my opinion it's not a good trade.

Aligning timelines would have led to the Spurs to not trade Hill for Leonard, so I'm not sure about that strategy. But if its aligning timelines we're after, I'd much sooner trade Vuc and get younger than trade Pat and get older.

[sco]

I've said this in other threads over the years about young players and Bulls fans and I'll say it again. Bulls fans talk about wanting youth, high ceiling, high upside guys but damn do they not want to give those players time to develop.

Wait until you get a chance to watch Scottie Barnes on Monday.

There are exceptions to this rule but for the most part, if a player is going to go on to be very good, he shows significant signs of it really early. Not just flashes but true alpha personality stuff. They go on to improve from there but the foundation is there on day 1.

When you look around with all of the young players that the Bulls "failed" to develop, they didn't go on to do much in other situations. Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Crawford, Snell, etc. Recently it looks like Wendell, Lauri, Valentine and others are the same people they were here.

The Jimmy Butlers of the NBA that continuously develop from a low base are very rare. More often, the good players look more like Derrick Rose who hit the ground running and got better from there.

I sure hope that Pat goes the Jimmy Butler route because if Pat just gets to being an average player, the Bulls are contenders this year.

I am fine trading Pat, but I like the point about Barnes. TOR is a rebuilding team and Barnes is a guy they are focused on involving in their offense as a secondary playmaker. We have 4 other starters who are near-elite playmakers, so Pat's role on offense is 5th option scorer (spot-up corner 3 guy)/non-play maker. His role is just to shoot accurately and often enough to keep his defender in the corner. On defense, it's been to guard the opposing team's best F and stick to him. Neither role will make it easy for him to get RB's. I would still like to see him be more aggressive, but his success this season isn't going to likely show up in stats.

[Chi town]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

Translation: I'm not happy with Alize but really happy with Caruso. Caruso and TBJ will come on early for DDR and Pat. When Vuc and Lavine are out, Pat will play center with DDR running the show. We will spam pick and roll with those two like its a bad videogame.

We already saw it some with Detroit.

Pat played better against DET. Flashed more. Still long way to go. I agree and think he will be playing the 5 to up his usage.

As for a comp and trade… the question is does OG Anunoby put us over the top? If he does then you trade PW for him at the deadline. If he doesn’t then you roll with PW. I think Pat will
Improve enough this season to keep him on the team. I think we will keep
Improving and Coby will give us the shooting we need.

I think we will be East contenders which means AK will be tempted to trade for a player like OG who is a young vet on a great contract and still has upside.

[The Force.]

As much as we criticize his game, one skill he does appear to have is shooting. Sure it’s a small sample size and his release is slow but the kid has a wet J. Every time he shoots you expect it to go in. That alone makes him valuable as a starter. Also it’s not like he’s a complete liability on the court. Sure he’s no Kenyon Martin, but he’s not Doug McDermott either. You can count on him to be at least average defensively. It’s not like coaches will try and hunt Patrick Williams.

So while he’s probably underperforming for his draft position, it’s not as if he’s a bust or anything. If nothing else, he’ll provide value as a knock down shooter at the 4, which is something a guy like Lauri was never able to do.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[Mbrahv0528]

All I'm seeing in this thread is reactionary impatience. This board never gets tired of wanting to trade our own players for other teams trash and it's absolutely maddening.

Also... he's coming off of an injury. But let's not let facts get in the way of a good ol' NBA 2k trade proposal right?

Sent from my SM-F707U using RealGM mobile app

[HomoSapien]

Rolling the dice does not equal confident; rolling the dice is by definition a gamble. I think when you combine Williams superior upside and youth with the risk that Grant is just a one year wonder, in my opinion it's not a good trade.

Aligning timelines would have led to the Spurs to not trade Hill for Leonard, so I'm not sure about that strategy. But if its aligning timelines we're after, I'd much sooner trade Vuc and get younger than trade Pat and get older.

There's too much at stake here to just blindly roll the dice, IMO. The East feels relatively open and we're a piece away from being a playoff nightmare. We can take calculated gambles, and my guess is that the Bulls have a good guess about what direction Pat's career is going to go in.

I get the point about Leonard's timeline not aligning with the Spurs core and how he not only helped them win but also theoretically would have extended their "dynasty" had he stayed there. My rebuttal would be that it was easier to get Leonard's potential because he was more productive right off the bat. He made an impact even as a somewhat timid rookie. I haven't felt that way about Patrick. I feel like we're generally worse with him on the floor, not because he's young, but because his personality has prevented him from being an impact player. He's sort of like Lauri in a weird way. He's too comfortable just standing around and waiting for things to come to him. Young Kawhi, even if his personality at times made him seem similar to Pat, was a significantly better rebounder and defender right off the bat. People keep labeling Pat as good defender, but he's not. He's below average at the moment.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

The problem with analyzing PW is everyone is affected by sunk cost fallacy. Because he was drafted high, people are having a tough time analyzing him. That decision should not impact the next decision. Just imagine if he was drafted 30th instead -

You probably wouldn’t say he was underperforming. But he also might not be starting.

If he was draft 30 and you were comparing him to Kawhi at all people would be ecstatic - but because he was 4th, people are upset that he isn’t executing at a higher level. But in reality the only thing that’s changed is your perspective.

While it affects his salary, his draft position should really have no impact on how we move forward with him. From a team building standpoint, Pat is the player he is regardless of where we drafted him.

I’m more concerned about measuring his worthiness for a 25+ mpg starting role on a team that’s trying to win.

Which isn’t to say the post-draft evaluation doesn’t matter. It absolutely does, imo, and I’m skeptical of the returns there. It’s just a less urgent concern given that development is non-linear and takes years to play out.

[TeamMan]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

After reading this it stuck in my mind, and when I actually realized what BD was saying, just busted out laughing.

In all of my years of watching basketball, I don't think that I've ever seen a quote that being a starter was holding a player back from developing.

But it is in fact in agreement with my earlier post that P-Will performed well as the #1 option in the Summer League, but was having to adapt to being the #5 option in the season.

But it seems almost crazy to hear that moving him out of the starting lineup will result in him being a better performer.

However, the thing that we don't see is the scrimmage games that the team plays in practice. Maybe in those games P-Will does actually perform better (or the 2nd unit performs better) when he is playing with them.

[HomoSapien]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

After reading this it stuck in my mind, and when I actually realized what BD was saying, just busted out laughing.

In all of my years of watching basketball, I don't think that I've ever seen a quote that being a starter was holding a player back from developing.

But it is in fact in agreement with my earlier post that P-Will performed well as the #1 option in the Summer League, but was having to adapt to being the #5 option in the season.

But it seems almost crazy to hear that moving him out of the starting lineup will result in him being a better performer.

However, the thing that we don't see is the scrimmage games that the team plays in practice. Maybe in those games P-Will does actually perform better (or the 2nd unit performs better) when he is playing with them.

PWill looked better (though still shakey) in the summer league in part because he was forced fed on offense. The second unit doesn't have a lof offense, so maybe that'll force Williams to be more aggressive. I think it's worth a shot, but at the same time, if guys like Green and Caruso can find shots with the starting lineup there's no reason Pat can. He's the guy that's getting left open when team's double team. All he has to do is find his spots and cut and he'll get a fair amount of great looks.

[sco]

Something to note, in the last post conference with Billy, when asked specifically about Patrick, he mentioned that he is thinking of putting him more with the second unit to get him going a bit more. Now, I'm not sure whether he means he will bring him off the bench, or pull him early, so he can get more run with the second unit, but it's clear that Billy wants him to assert himself more and get himself going to get his confidence up.

It will be interesting what the rotation is like against the Raptors and how Billy uses him.

After reading this it stuck in my mind, and when I actually realized what BD was saying, just busted out laughing.

In all of my years of watching basketball, I don't think that I've ever seen a quote that being a starter was holding a player back from developing.

But it is in fact in agreement with my earlier post that P-Will performed well as the #1 option in the Summer League, but was having to adapt to being the #5 option in the season.

But it seems almost crazy to hear that moving him out of the starting lineup will result in him being a better performer.

However, the thing that we don't see is the scrimmage games that the team plays in practice. Maybe in those games P-Will does actually perform better (or the 2nd unit performs better) when he is playing with them.

I think what BD has done this season, which I wanted him to do before the season even started, was to sub-out DD and Pat for Caruso and Green. Then he subs out Ball, Zach and Vuc for DD, Pat and Alize. Then Pat becomes the 2nd option in that line-up and he also provides better spacing for DD with his 3pt range. I like that rotation. They can shift Pat to the C by bringing back Ball and subbing out Alize.

[Dan Z]

Rolling the dice does not equal confident; rolling the dice is by definition a gamble. I think when you combine Williams superior upside and youth with the risk that Grant is just a one year wonder, in my opinion it's not a good trade.

Aligning timelines would have led to the Spurs to not trade Hill for Leonard, so I'm not sure about that strategy. But if its aligning timelines we're after, I'd much sooner trade Vuc and get younger than trade Pat and get older.

There's too much at stake here to just blindly roll the dice, IMO. The East feels relatively open and we're a piece away from being a playoff nightmare. We can take calculated gambles, and my guess is that the Bulls have a good guess about what direction Pat's career is going to go in.

I get the point about Leonard's timeline not aligning with the Spurs core and how he not only helped them win but also theoretically would have extended their "dynasty" had he stayed there. My rebuttal would be that it was easier to get Leonard's potential because he was more productive right off the bat. He made an impact even as a somewhat timid rookie. I haven't felt that way about Patrick. I feel like we're generally worse with him on the floor, not because he's young, but because his personality has prevented him from being an impact player. He's sort of like Lauri in a weird way. He's too comfortable just standing around and waiting for things to come to him. Young Kawhi, even if his personality at times made him seem similar to Pat, was a significantly better rebounder and defender right off the bat. People keep labeling Pat as good defender, but he's not. He's below average at the moment.

Do you think trading Patrick Williams for Jerami Grant or Pascal Siakam will make that much of a difference? Are you thinking the Bulls potentially go further in the playoffs with them?

It's also possible that Siakam takes all season long to get back into a rhythm (he had off-season shoulder surgery) and isn't really helpful this year. Or that Jerami Grant shows that last year was a fluke (I don't think it was, but it's possible).

Trading Williams for any of those players isn't bringing the Bulls a championship and the team isn't desperate to move him. My take is it's better to keep developing him and go from there. If it works out...great. If not, then the team can still make moves.

[sco]

Rolling the dice does not equal confident; rolling the dice is by definition a gamble. I think when you combine Williams superior upside and youth with the risk that Grant is just a one year wonder, in my opinion it's not a good trade.

Aligning timelines would have led to the Spurs to not trade Hill for Leonard, so I'm not sure about that strategy. But if its aligning timelines we're after, I'd much sooner trade Vuc and get younger than trade Pat and get older.

There's too much at stake here to just blindly roll the dice, IMO. The East feels relatively open and we're a piece away from being a playoff nightmare. We can take calculated gambles, and my guess is that the Bulls have a good guess about what direction Pat's career is going to go in.

I get the point about Leonard's timeline not aligning with the Spurs core and how he not only helped them win but also theoretically would have extended their "dynasty" had he stayed there. My rebuttal would be that it was easier to get Leonard's potential because he was more productive right off the bat. He made an impact even as a somewhat timid rookie. I haven't felt that way about Patrick. I feel like we're generally worse with him on the floor, not because he's young, but because his personality has prevented him from being an impact player. He's sort of like Lauri in a weird way. He's too comfortable just standing around and waiting for things to come to him. Young Kawhi, even if his personality at times made him seem similar to Pat, was a significantly better rebounder and defender right off the bat. People keep labeling Pat as good defender, but he's not. He's below average at the moment.

Do you think trading Patrick Williams for Jerami Grant or Pascal Siakam will make that much of a difference? Are you thinking the Bulls potentially go further in the playoffs with them?

It's also possible that Siakam takes all season long to get back into a rhythm (he had off-season shoulder surgery) and isn't really helpful this year. Or that Jerami Grant shows that last year was a fluke (I don't think it was, but it's possible).

Trading Williams for any of those players isn't bringing the Bulls a championship and the team isn't desperate to move him. My take is it's better to keep developing him and go from there. If it works out...great. If not, then the team can still make moves.

Good point. By trading Pat for a more impactful, but higher usage, offensive player will result in Ball becoming less involved in the offense (and become the 5th option) and also negatively impact the new player's offense by making him a 4th option player.

[panthermark]

I think a lot of the trade proposals have a lot to do with team build. If Chicago with have landed the PF equivalent of DD in free agency, then there would be far less talk to move Williams. Buy-outs at the deadline will be interesting.

It is hard to develop him while also playing him out of position.

[jordanwilliams6]

I definitely like the idea of him playing the second option with the bench squad alongside Demar. It would only be probably 8-10 minutes a game but it gives him some real time development in more of a controlled setting. A lineup of Caruso/Demar/PWill/Green/Johnson for these minutes while Zach & Vuc sit works for me.

I'd be happy to cut TBJ out of the rotation for now until Coby gets back.