Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

[CaPiTanAK]

Ya'll see Scottie Barnes? Imagine THIS team with THAT motor.

Scottie Barnes abused Pwill. I remembered a play in the fourth quarter where Barnes lowered his shoulder and jabbed Pwill a few times hurting his man titties, drew a foul, and scored a bucket that should count but the refs bailed us out.

It’s a problem when a rookie is outperforming as evident by stats and eye test.

[Tetlak]

Let's take a step back for a minute. Scottie Barnes out-physical'd and out-motored Pat, yeah - but Scottie was bad. He actually downright hurt his team with 6 turnovers, no assists, team low -10.

If Pat does that, we lose the game and people are freaking out even more.

At this point there's no excuse to start Pat over Javonte or TBJ though.

[DuckIII]

I think he should be trade bait.

The Bulls look better equipped to compete in the East than I thought they would. That does change the math. I’m a lot more willing to trade Pat now than I was last season because of that.

But what do you think his trade value is? Standing alone it has to be mediocre at best. If so, no.

But I wonder what the value of a Coby/Pat trade package might look like?

Given that we will be capped out and traded away a lot of draft assets, young players with upside should not be dismissed for role players. But perhaps combining them could yield more than a role player from a team looking to change course and rebuild.

[drosestruts]

I'm not in the Williams is a bust camp, or think it's impossible for him to grow/develop. Pat becoming a good player is still on the board for me, it's just that right now he's not.

The 0 rebounds thing is just killer, and emblematic of the whole Pat Williams experience.

We just need more from him. I refuse to believe someone else in his role comes up with 0 rebounds last night.

It's a tricky spot where Williams has trade value due to his age and potential, every year in the league that potential isn't realized that trade value goes down. On the other hand, if he were to reach his potential, in 5 years trading him would look like a big mistake.

We've been comparing him a lot to Scottie Barnes in this thread so far, who I agree is already showing more after 4 games than we've ever seen from Williams.

But optimistic me sees a better comparison for Williams on the Raptors and that's in OG Anunoby. Now OG did go from starting the majority of his games in year 1 to coming off the bench in year 2, granted the team traded for Kawhi Leonard. Much easier to sit a guy behind Leonard than say Jevonte Green. OG's development happened rather slowly, but now in year 5 he's a legit starting forward that any team would want.

from 6 points and 2.5 rebounds a game in year one to now averaging 17/6.5/2.5


I guess in the end, my criticism of Williams now isn't an indictment on what I think his potential is. I think there's a good player in there, I just wouldn't label Williams untouchable if looking for an upgrade via trade, and I wouldn't coddle him and give him entitlement minutes if others are out-playing him.

You don't make the moves we made this offseason and then give a player entitlement minutes, we're a good team now. You either contribute to winning, or you lose your spot to someone who does. That's our new reality.

[DeseanPrince]

At Pat’s current state he’s at best a 15-18 mpg bench player but we’re fast tracking him to be a 28-32 minute starter and it’s slowing us down.


If Pat is still like this after 10-12 games then TBJ or Green should start until we can make a trade for an actual 4. Not sure what benefit we gain from having him in the starting lineup. He’s not rebounding, getting crossed up/blown by, leaving shooters open, not making good reads offensively, passing up open looks, is the worst pick setter I’ve ever seen and brings no energy. People say he just needs to be more aggressive but he can’t because he has no handle to get by anyone, can’t finish through contact, barely runs in transition and the added bulk looks like it made his shot even slower so he doesn’t trust himself to get it off. Weather it be ankle injury, no training camp, being too young or whatever other excuse people want to make, the fact is he doesn’t look good right now.


Through 4 games when he is on the court the Bulls are a +5.3 per 100, when’s he off it shoots up to +18.3. He has the worst net rating (-13) of everyone except Alize despite playing mostly with the starters, same story as last season. Eye test confirms this as well.


He’s just not ready, plain and simple. Doesn’t mean we should kick him to the curb yet as I do think he’ll eventually be a valuable player but this is a win now situation and he needs to be much better or get sent to the bench. If he can’t handle a bench role either, then trade him for the highest bidder. No reason to continue to cater to a guy who’s ceiling is looking like Jerami Grant when he was with Denver.

[ArtMorte]

Yeah, I'm worried he's gonna be a wasted pick. Usually a truly talented player would be showing flashes of that ability, but perhaps be inconsistent. Williams is being consistent like porridge, though; consistently unexciting. My highest hope for him is starting to be that he becomes a solid role player, something like Jae Crowder.

[BeKuK]

Thinking of PWill makes me really believe, that 4 years of College Basketball would have been absolutely great for him.

[panthermark]

Right now he is one of the worst rebounders on a team that is one of the worst rebound teams in the league.

Per36, he it tied with Troy Brown Jr at 4.0 boards per game....who are ahead of Caruso, at 3.5 boards per game..and he is a back-up guard. That's it (outside of people that don't play).

Part of the problem is the situation. He isn't a PF.
Part of the problem is his slow motor.....which looks really bad on a team full of high motor and/or high skill guys.

From an impact standpoint, he is probably the 8th or 9th most impactful player on the team (we will see what Coby brings)...which would be fine if he wasn't a starter. But since we have no choice but to start him...there is a huge spotlight on his weaknesses in relation to this team.
No choice but the ride with it until someone becomes available.

[LateNight]

Is there some way to send him to a hypnotist and turn him into Kenyon Martin?

[fleet]

Let's take a step back for a minute. Scottie Barnes out-physical'd and out-motored Pat, yeah - but Scottie was bad. He actually downright hurt his team with 6 turnovers, no assists, team low -10.

If Pat does that, we lose the game and people are freaking out even more.

At this point there's no excuse to start Pat over Javonte or TBJ though.

A poster above pointed out that Pat has had a team low positive rating, and he would have a negative rating probably if we weren’t blowing teams out. And Pat did have like a -5 v Toronto. It should be easy for him to be helping the other 4 increase their positive ratings just with a little bit of work, but he is a drag at this point. I do like what coldfish suggested, which was to run PNR sets for him in the gameplan to get him involved, but he’s not good at it.

[TheSuzerain]

I think he should be trade bait.

The Bulls look better equipped to compete in the East than I thought they would. That does change the math. I’m a lot more willing to trade Pat now than I was last season because of that.

But what do you think his trade value is? Standing alone it has to be mediocre at best. If so, no.

But I wonder what the value of a Coby/Pat trade package might look like?

Given that we will be capped out and traded away a lot of draft assets, young players with upside should not be dismissed for role players. But perhaps combining them could yield more than a role player from a team looking to change course and rebuild.

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

[HoopsterJones]

P Will needs to get his motor revved up to a much higher RPM. He’s far too passive and it might be because he’s surrounded by so many vets that need their touches like Vuc, Demar, Zach, and Lonzo.

He still has time to develop his game, but so far it looks like he hasn’t improved from last year. Might be because the ankle injury prevented him from playing all but one pre season game and practices. He may be playing himself into shape and effectively is in pre season form right now.

[panthermark]

We also have to keep in mind a lot of this is not his fault.
Look at this roster exactly one year ago. PF wasn't the "need"...SF was.

I can't be all that mad that he isn't a good PF. He is a SF.
I can't be all that mad that the Bulls had the 4th pick in what had looked like a 3 player draft.
The "window" has been accelerated quite a bit....that is not his fault.

[Chi town]

Pat is like Smalls on the Sandlot. Kid needs to go do something. Get in trouble. Make a mistake. DO SOMETHING.

He doesn't try anything. Any time there is a one on one opp he just passes the ball out.

[BahamaBull]

Never got the hype on Patrick Williams...Hes ok...Nothing special.

He will have a long career in the league but imo hes never going to be a star or anything close to that. Good role player.

[HINrichPolice]

I'm on the Alize at starting PF bandwagon.

He would complement the other 4 starters pretty well, IMO.

Having Patrick off the bench might would give him some more green light to look for his shot a bit on offense. When he does, his pull up one-handed vertical extension shot is quite deadly and he's been reliable from 3 so far. What he doesn't have yet is any sort of wiggle with the dribble. Zero confidence when putting the ball on the floor for any more than 3 dribbles. Also doesn't have a reliable post move, but I think he has all the tools for turn around, one handed baby hooks.

Defensively, he just looks scared to make any contact. I wonder if it's his shoulder that's bothering him, but whatever the excuse, I'm discouraged. Those saying he hasn't shown ability, however, are just hating. He has shown flashes of great defensive potential as a 3, but looks a bit lost as a 4. And I wonder if him growing a little has reduced his defensive effectiveness as a 3.

[MGB8]

IMO - Bulls aren't contenders, 4-0 start (against bad teams) notwithstanding. Instead, they are who we thought they were - a 2nd tier Eastern team likely to make the playoffs with a good chance of getting to the 2nd round. But the good thing is that with LaVine just entering his prime, Ball not close to it, and DD having a few years to go before serious decline, there's room for improvement.

I have seen enough out of Pat - both last season and this year in summer league - to believe that he works on his game, wants to get better, and will get better over time (barring injury). And I do wonder if he's still kind of banged up or out of shape, and/or if it's just adjustment to a whole new team and even lesser role than last season - and thinking too much.

The lack of rebounds last night was weird and concerning, but he also got 2 blocks and a steal, along with 2 assists - showing that he was doing something on defense. His +/- of -4 (per BBref) was better than Caruso's -7 or Alize Johnson's -9 - and while context matters some, Caruso plays plenty with the starters (and 2 more minutes than Pat), and Pat plays a good chunk with the bench. Oh, and Pat had the 2nd best net Ortg - Drtg on the team 147/118, +29 net (behind Alize) - which is weird with their negative plus minuses. Meanwhile, Ball, Vuc, Derozan, all negative nets (Lonzo notably so) - and Caruso big negative.

If he's still producing so little half-way through the season - less than what he did last season as a rookie - I'll be very concerned. But we're a ways away from that. And he has enough natural talent to be a high level player, a la a Jerami Grant, borderline all-star, in a couple of years. And on a cheap deal for a while.

Meanwhile, I doubt that there's anything that the Bulls could do with Pat Williams (or Coby) on top of him to suddenly make themselves contenders - not with Giannis, Middleton, Jrue and improved bench over last year in the East (along with the Nets, the Hawks, maybe the Sixers and maybe the Heat). Best bet right now is to ride with Pat and his development over the next few.

[GoBlue72391]

We should think about benching him. He might need something like that to light a fire under him. 3 shots and 0 rebounds in 26 minutes is unacceptable and embarrassing.

On one hand, you could make the argument that we're 4-0 so if it's not broke don't fix it. But on the other, more realistic hand, at some point when we play against better teams we're going to need some kind of production out of the 4 spot. Any kind of production at all.

The other day when I said he's this team's Keith Bogans I was strictly speaking of his limited role of mostly defense and shooting open 3s and not his statistical output, but he's actually underperforming Bogans so far on a per 36 basis (9, 4, and 3 for Bogans and 9, 3, and 1 for PWill). It's still very early and I don't expect that to keep up, but we can't keep playing 4 on 5 for too much longer and expect to keep winning.

[DuckIII]

I think he should be trade bait.

The Bulls look better equipped to compete in the East than I thought they would. That does change the math. I’m a lot more willing to trade Pat now than I was last season because of that.

But what do you think his trade value is? Standing alone it has to be mediocre at best. If so, no.

But I wonder what the value of a Coby/Pat trade package might look like?

Given that we will be capped out and traded away a lot of draft assets, young players with upside should not be dismissed for role players. But perhaps combining them could yield more than a role player from a team looking to change course and rebuild.

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

[TheSuzerain]

The Bulls look better equipped to compete in the East than I thought they would. That does change the math. I’m a lot more willing to trade Pat now than I was last season because of that.

But what do you think his trade value is? Standing alone it has to be mediocre at best. If so, no.

But I wonder what the value of a Coby/Pat trade package might look like?

Given that we will be capped out and traded away a lot of draft assets, young players with upside should not be dismissed for role players. But perhaps combining them could yield more than a role player from a team looking to change course and rebuild.

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

I think he probably has more trade value than any of our other pieces that would reasonably be for sale.

I mean we just traded for Ball and Derozan while giving up less valuable assets than Williams.