Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

[ghostinthepost1]

The Bulls look better equipped to compete in the East than I thought they would. That does change the math. I’m a lot more willing to trade Pat now than I was last season because of that.

But what do you think his trade value is? Standing alone it has to be mediocre at best. If so, no.

But I wonder what the value of a Coby/Pat trade package might look like?

Given that we will be capped out and traded away a lot of draft assets, young players with upside should not be dismissed for role players. But perhaps combining them could yield more than a role player from a team looking to change course and rebuild.

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

[TheSuzerain]

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

Yeah this is basically what I have in mind for Pat.

Wait for one of these 3 to demand a trade and then pounce.

[GoBlue72391]

Also, right now 3 games in, Pats volume stats are down from last years. While some of that is due to the additions, if you really think that Pat will DECLINE from his rookie totals by the end of the year (absent more injuries, etc.)…. well, would love to hear why you think that is likely to happen.

PWill averaged 9.2, 4.6, and 1.4 last year on 27.9 MPG and is averaging 6.8, 2.3, and 0.8 on 27 MPG this year. I don't expect him to sustain that Bogans-esque level of production, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes the year with roughly the same averages as last year or even slightly lower, mainly due to all the new additions.

I also wouldn't be that surprised if he ends the year with slightly better averages than last year, but I don't see some 14 and 7 breakout year happening either. I think a not too unrealisitc best case scenario for him is something like 11, 5, and 2.

[MGB8]

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

Siakam is on a max deal and cost prohibitive.

Grant probably isn't gettable for anything near reasonable - but even if he was (Pat, Coby, and a first round pick plus a couple of pick swaps) - does Jerami Grant make the Bulls a contender at the level of the Giannis led Bucks or even the Durant-Harden Nets? Would they even be as good as the Trae.Young-Collins-Hunter-Capella-Gallinari-Bogdanovic-LouWilliams-Huerter-Reddish-Gorgui Dieng Hawks?

[MGB8]

Also, right now 3 games in, Pats volume stats are down from last years. While some of that is due to the additions, if you really think that Pat will DECLINE from his rookie totals by the end of the year (absent more injuries, etc.)…. well, would love to hear why you think that is likely to happen.

PWill averaged 9.2, 4.6, and 1.4 last year on 27.9 MPG and is averaging 6.8, 2.3, and 0.8 on 27 MPG this year. I don't expect him to sustain that Bogans-esque level of production, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes the year with roughly the same averages as last year or even slightly lower, mainly due to all the new additions.

I also wouldn't be that surprised if he ends the year with slightly better averages than last year, but I don't see some 14 and 7 breakout year happening either. I think a not too unrealisitc best case scenario for him is something like 11, 5, and 2.

I agree re 14/7 just because of the offensive role. But I still expect his numbers to rise over his rookie season (if in equivalent minutes, and barring injury), to include somewhat improved (already high) efficiency.

[TheSuzerain]

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

Siakam is on a max deal and cost prohibitive.

Grant probably isn't gettable for anything near reasonable - but even if he was (Pat, Coby, and a first round pick plus a couple of pick swaps) - does Jerami Grant make the Bulls a contender at the level of the Giannis led Bucks or even the Durant-Harden Nets? Would they even be as good as the Trae.Young-Collins-Hunter-Capella-Gallinari-Bogdanovic-LouWilliams-Huerter-Reddish-Gorgui Dieng Hawks?

The deal is precisely why Siakam is gettable though. Because the Raps may be glad to clear the cap space so he won't cost as much in assets.

[GoBlue72391]

I give up on Pat as anything but a guy who’s several years away from maaaaybe being a useful 3&D guy.

I’ve been lying to myself for a long time.

Wearing really, really Bulls colored glasses...denying the truth of what I’m actually seeing and feeling in my gut.

The lack of aggression, or even assertiveness points to a lack of competitive fire. He’s lacking intangibles that are absolutely necessary to really succeed at the top level. I pity the guy’s soul if he were ever in a practice with MJ or Kobe.

Combine that with his pretty AVERAGE athleticism, and it’s a recipe for a giant meh sandwich. The narrative that he’s some great athlete is way off base imo. He’s slow, plodding, and pretty damn stiff in his movements.

Seems like a nice kid that works by all accounts. Just way too many holes to fill. I wouldn’t trade him just to trade him, but I’m definitely looking at a deal before that young potential, and 4th pick luster wears off.

Doesn't this sounds just like what was said about Wendell Carter? They are out of the same mold.

I'd say more Lauri than Wendell. I never really recalled a lack of aggression or fire from WCJ, just a lack of effectiveness. The athleticism description (slow, plodding, stiff) does apply to WCJ, but not the personality stuff. But at least WCJ has been able to contribute to the level of a low-end starter/solid backup; not great by any means, but better than what PWill has shown thus far.

Lauri and PWill both have natural skills/tools that are negated by their own lack of aggression/confidence. But Lauri at least has shown he does have a fire inside him and he can bring it out on occasion, however fleeting that may be. Not so from PWill; I've never once seen anything resembling a fire/edge/dog in him/whatever you want to call it.

Not that I think PWill has all-world talent like some do, but he definitely should be better than what is. I've always thought Lauri was and is the far better prospect, but I know a ton of people will disagree with that, which is fine.

[chefo]

Patrick's going to play for the same reason he was gifted heavy minutes last year--he's the first pick by AKME, so they must have seen something in him and he'll keep getting opportunities until he completely falls flat on his face time after time, after time. Even when he and Coby were the worst rotational players on the squad last year, Coby got benched, Patrick did not.

The problem becomes when he's still a 9/3 in 6 months, or 12, guy because we have not seen any indication that he can or will be anything more so far. If he were an elite help defender or elite ISO defender, perhaps you can live with that as your 5th starter, but he's really far removed from being either.

Next year, he'll be making $8M, and the equivalent of MLE money the year after. He's nowhere near the impact of a productive vet you can get for that kind of $.

Are you telling me the Bulls won't look better if they had Theis instead?

I've written about that before--but high picks that don't pan out quickly become a liability because they're dead money. The Bulls currently have 9.7 in DJJ and 5.8 in Coby that have contributed zilch so far this season, and have Pat's 7.4 that's giving you 6/2.

I'd offer Pat or Coby, DJJ and a 1st pick to the Kings for Barnes, who's exactly what the doctor ordered--can pass, not shy to shoot, strong enough to handle most modern 4's, can even play some small-ball 5. Has a ring and experience and is the perfect age for this group.

Replace Pat with Barnes and the Bulls will not have much dead salary on the books AND more importantly, will begin curb-stomping everybody because a quality, tall(er) 5th starter is all they're currently missing.

[GoBlue72391]

We should think about benching him. He might need something like that to light a fire under him. 3 shots and 0 rebounds in 26 minutes is unacceptable and embarrassing.

You only bench him if he's actively hurting the team. And by 'actively hurting the team', I mean, are we losing close, winnable games because of him?

So far we're 4-0. Let's see what happens during this gauntlet the next couple weeks. If after the next 10-15 games we're seeing clear evidence of lost games that reasonably could've been won if Green was starting, then we can seriously talk about benching him.

But if we do well on this gauntlet, and the losses are minimal, than I don't see the point in benching him for another role player. If he isn't actively a detriment to our record and our team performance, even if his individual play still isn't great or even good, a public in-season demotion would only serve to humiliate him for no reason. And while that can serve as fuel for some players, for others, it just messes with their heads.

You still do it if it's necessary, if he's hurting the team. But it's too early to make that determination. I think we gotta give it to Thanksgiving at least.

Respectfully, I disagree. We got destroyed on the boards today and he had zero rebounds in 26 minutes at the PF spot. That hurt us, how it could it not?

But regardless, Patrick Williams has started all 74 games of his career and frankly I’m not sure if that’s been a good thing for him. Demoting him, even if it’s just for a few games, might wake him up a little bit. He’s sleep walking out there.

Part of me thinks that, if you have to try to light a fire under a guy just to get him to play with an acceptable level of effort then it's probably a doomed venture from the outset. If a guy isn't playing with any sort of effort in the NBA making millions playing in one of the biggest cities for a good upcoming team with a ton of energy around it then only the player in question can fix that, and only if he wants to.

I understand trying to light a fire under a guy who is merely underperforming, but that's really not the same situation. This goes beyond mere underperformance.

[GoBlue72391]

Bulls got so unlucky here with the 2020 NBA Draft. We were 1 pick away from LaMelo and it was the wrong year to have a #4 pick. Should have moved up.

Picks after Williams all struggling as well.

#5 - Okoro - Nothing special
#6 - Okongwu - Always injured
#7 - Hayes - -5.36 PER this season
#8 - Toppin - Looks like a bust
#9 - Avdija - Nothing special
#10 - Smith - Looks like a bust
#11 - Vassell - Nothing special

Haliburton maybe the exception here but overall it looks like the 2020 Draft was simply not very good which is pretty much what we had all expected.

Yeah, looking like a pretty crappy draft, which to be fair, was expected.

[GoBlue72391]

Not saying I think we should panic trade him, but if we are willing to entertain the idea of a trade then we might want to start throwing some feelers out around the league because right now he still has the luster of a 4th overall pick but that doesn't last forever. Once that's gone, he'll have no trade value whatsoever unless he improves significantly.

If he's still like this say, 15 games in, then it's time to make a change. Whether that's a benching or a trade.

[dougthonus]

At Pat’s current state he’s at best a 15-18 mpg bench player but we’re fast tracking him to be a 28-32 minute starter and it’s slowing us down.

First, let me say I agree with all of your broader points below.

But I would challenge this slightly, what is he slowing us down from right now? We're 4-0. Things could not be any better from a Bulls position at this moment in time than they presently are.

His play, as you note, does seem like it may cost us games in the future. I'd start Javonte Green and put Williams on the bench where his skillset also probably meshes better and it will be easier for him to be aggressive. I wish someone would get in his ear and say all we need is defense and rebounding from you. We need you to simply get after it. However, I also just think some guys aren't built that way. Could be the amount of bulk he has and type of athlete he is doesn't translate to a pesky / aggressive / disruptive type.

[ghostinthepost1]

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

Yeah this is basically what I have in mind for Pat.

Wait for one of these 3 to demand a trade and then pounce.

I also forgot the most obvious name in the league, Simmons. It'd have to be a three team deal since Pat+Coby+Picks aren't the win now players the Sixers would want but if there's some team that's going to blow it up and wants picks+young players back and doesn't really want Simmons I could see it happening.

[GoBlue72391]

I think people are overreacting about Pat. 0 rebounds and 3 shot attempts is not good. But this is a second year player who missed the last month (all of preseason) with an injury. The roster is completely reconstructed and he is now playing an entirely different role and basically hasn't practiced with this team. And let's not pretend he's the only one not rebounding. We only had 28 rebounds as a team. That's putrid, and while Pat definitely needs to carry some of the blame for that, he is the second tallest player in our rotation at 6'7". We need more size.

We should NOT bench him for someone who is already on the roster. We need to trade for a bigger PF who is a rebounder and defender. And we definitely should NOT be including Pat in the trade. Obviously DJJ is the guy to trade and possibly include TBJ.

Let's not lose our minds here.

It's easy to say don't overreact, he's young, raw, and coming off an injury, and that does hold some level of merit. But on the other hand, what player in Bulls history has produced less and had a lower impact on the game than PWill among those who got consistent playing time? Keith Bogans in the only one I can recall, and he was an end-of-the-bench vet who was forced into a limited minutes starter role due to a lack of better fits and had a very defined role of 3&D.

Young or not, he should have shown something by now, and I can count on one hand the number of games where he showed something more than just mere flashes every once in a great while. Forget the Bulls, what young player in recent NBA history produced so little and went on to become a good player? I'm talking about players who actually got consistent playing time from day 1, so guys like Gerald Wallace and Jermaine O'Neal don't count because they barely played for their first few years in the league and I doubt they had the glaring passivity and lack of effort that PWill has shown.

I'm willing to give him more time and acknowledge that he's young, raw, and is making up for a short amount of lost time and is adjusting to new teammates, but he has to start showing something or changes will eventually have to be made.

[GoBlue72391]

I said it all of last year and my question still exist... What exactly does Patrick Williams do in a nightly basis that warrants him starting every game?

The Bulls banished Simonović to the G League but I have seen nothing out of Williams that tells me that he should not be there also.

His draft status and allure of potential that comes with being the 4th overall pick. That's literally it. If he was a non-lotto pick and playing time was doled out purely off merit he absolutely would not be starting and playing 25+ MPG. He might not even be in the rotation, because we could give his minutes to someone like DJJ right now who would contribute and impact the game more than PWill.

That's a harsh take on my part, but it's not inaccurate.

[sco]

Also, right now 3 games in, Pats volume stats are down from last years. While some of that is due to the additions, if you really think that Pat will DECLINE from his rookie totals by the end of the year (absent more injuries, etc.)…. well, would love to hear why you think that is likely to happen.

PWill averaged 9.2, 4.6, and 1.4 last year on 27.9 MPG and is averaging 6.8, 2.3, and 0.8 on 27 MPG this year. I don't expect him to sustain that Bogans-esque level of production, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes the year with roughly the same averages as last year or even slightly lower, mainly due to all the new additions.

I also wouldn't be that surprised if he ends the year with slightly better averages than last year, but I don't see some 14 and 7 breakout year happening either. I think a not too unrealisitc best case scenario for him is something like 11, 5, and 2.

I would like him to be better on defense, and still think he will improve a bunch with more experience. IMO his biggest defensive weaknesses are related to the 1/2 second delay due to a lack of situational recognition and not knowing player tendencies...another year or two (in the same system) will help a ton.

On offense, I want a bit more active (especially in not taking open shots). That said, he's not just the 5th option in the way that many guys are 5th options (like Carter, for example to start last season). He's the 5th option behind 3 guys who are all 17 shot per game allstars and the PG who shoots 12 shots per game. And I see a lot of talk about bringing in another "impact player"...I just don't see there being shots available that won't either hurt our big 3's rhythm or dilute Ball's shots (which I don't want either). Alternatively, I see points about starting Alize at PF, and while it wouldn't bother me, I think that there is value to having a credible 3pt shooter in the corner that helps our 1/2 court game - also, Pat's vision/passing is his best skill, which has been helpful too.

[DuckIII]

The important question is "What will happen to his trade value going forward?".

Part of me think that the further we go away from him being selected at #4, the more he'll be evaluated on his actual play which is mediocre at best. Trading him now could mean cashing in on the residual value he has as a top 5 pick before it entirely evaporates.

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

I’d be surprised if he has that kind of value but if he does I’d certainly pull the trigger. I’m also very interested in Boucher/.

[DuckIII]

That question is not important at all unless you believe he currently has impact player trade value. What do you estimate his current trade value is?

Not the person you asked the question to but I think Pat could easily be the centerpiece of a trade for established player on a tanking team. Guys like Christian Wood, Grant from Detroit, or Siakam from the Raptors.

Yeah this is basically what I have in mind for Pat.

Wait for one of these 3 to demand a trade and then pounce.

If that’s his value, we should be all over that. I’ll add I don’t think Houston or Detroit has any interest in trading Wood or Grant for another project. I believe they are viewed as part of the rebuild, not trade pieces for furthering their rebuild.

[fleet]

Problem with saying he doesn’t need to shoot much because he is behind our mini big three, is that he doesn’t need shots planned out. Just opportunity baskets, and offensive rebound shots. He doesn’t get one of those at all, and seldom the other.

[Tetlak]

I'm on the Alize at starting PF bandwagon.

He would complement the other 4 starters pretty well, IMO.

Having Patrick off the bench might would give him some more green light to look for his shot a bit on offense. When he does, his pull up one-handed vertical extension shot is quite deadly and he's been reliable from 3 so far. What he doesn't have yet is any sort of wiggle with the dribble. Zero confidence when putting the ball on the floor for any more than 3 dribbles. Also doesn't have a reliable post move, but I think he has all the tools for turn around, one handed baby hooks.

Defensively, he just looks scared to make any contact. I wonder if it's his shoulder that's bothering him, but whatever the excuse, I'm discouraged. Those saying he hasn't shown ability, however, are just hating. He has shown flashes of great defensive potential as a 3, but looks a bit lost as a 4. And I wonder if him growing a little has reduced his defensive effectiveness as a 3.

I'm here to stop the Alize at PF bandwagon before it starts. Alize's skillset? Rebounding. That's literally it. He brings absolutely nothing else. He does not complement the starters at all, because they don't need rebounding help in that unit.