The Tomjas Thread

[Roy The Natural]

Lillard looks terrible right now.. not sure if you trade Ben for him now and be stuck with an albatross contract or you buy low and it pays off

I don't really buy that Lillard forgot how to shoot. He's otherwise looked about normal, or even better in other areas. He's passing the ball well. In 3 games he's gotten to the rim 19 times and finished 14 of those. He's hit 4 of 31 on jump shots. I'd be far more worried if Lillard was struggling horrendously to finish at the rim, or struggling to get to the rim.

With a guy like Lillard your primary worry is either injury as he ages, or loss of the athletic ability required to sustain the non-shooting parts of his game, at this point I don't think we see that yet.

I doubt a shooter as prolific as Lillard for as long as Lillard has shot that prolifically would all of the sudden completely lose his ability to shoot the ball. Seems like he'll break out of it, and be right back to normal. Doesn't look slow to me, and doesn't look like he's lost his ability to jump. His jumpshot just looks off.

[phiphan]

Lillard looks terrible right now.. not sure if you trade Ben for him now and be stuck with an albatross contract or you buy low and it pays off

If Lillard looks terrible, how does Simmons look right now? he has mental illness right? why would you trade Lillard for him if you are Blazers?

riiiiight.

I'm sure Olshey and Simmons would exchange knowing smirks at each other across the table if that ever came up pre-trade.

[phiphan]

Here's your red flag for Lillard:

[Tomjas]

Here's your red flag for Lillard:

Couldn’t that simply be a product of new rule interpretation?

I haven’t watched him this season so don’t know

[Roy The Natural]

Here's your red flag for Lillard:

Nah... 3 games. No red flags. Last year he started the season off with 3.7 FTA/G over his first 3 games. You can find TONS and TONS of 3 game stretches over the last 3 years where Lillard average less than 5 FTA.

[Roy The Natural]

Here's your red flag for Lillard:

Couldn’t that simply be a product of new rule interpretation?

I haven’t watched him this season so don’t know

Most likely it's more to do with minutes and natural variance. Lillard played 24 minutes against the Suns and 27 minutes last night. 5FTA in 24 minutes and 4 FTA in 27 minutes is totally fine. One more foul on him each game (probably pretty likely over another 8-10 minutes) and he's at 6.5 FTAs for those games.

Lillard had 17 games last season where he attempted 5 or less free throws. He's drawing FTs a bit less so far to start the season, but it's not anything worrying to this point, as he's still drawing a good amount and there's plenty of natural variance over any 3 game span. I mean, Embiid's FTr is further off his career norm than Lillard's to this point.... BUT... it's 3 games. Give stuff some time to sort out.

Barring a significant difference in athleticism from previous years it's hard to consider anything a true red flag in the first 3 games.

[eyeatoma]

Biid also needs to be a better PNR big tho.

Cuz he had so many opportunities to work on it with Ben right?

Who was there on the team to run it with lol? He did a decent job with Jimmy, but yeah he could get better at it. But for that to happen, you actually have to have guards who can run the pick n roll. We still don't have a competent PG, and I feel like they are running the offense through Biid from the top of the key, which I get in some ways, but is super hard for him to get into his spots, because of where he's starting on the court.

[eyeatoma]

he played like **** in the olympics as well. So this has been trending for a while. Mileage might have begun to catch up to him like it did Kemba., Steph basically took a whole year off after their loss to the Raptors. Another tiny guard who has been meh/bad this year is Lowry. The cliff comes fast for that type of player

Lowry is 36.

The FIBA rules does not call BS fouls like the NBA does, so it affected a lot of players, but impacted Lillard more than others. He was also not the guy, and the offense wasn't run through him.

Kemba, has horrible knees, and he's not getting minutes on the Knicks team, and he was **** with Boston, again, because he had horrible knees.

It's been 3 games.

As others have said, I'll be concerned if this is going on by all-star break.

IMO, he probably has this season and another 2 years of his prime. I am a little more wary than before, because it'll be a short window, but if he's available I'd still do the deal.

[Kobblehead]

Tried to tell ya'll back in July that Dame was showing signs of being cooked

Lillard already showing subtle signs of aging if you look at his shot distribution this playoffs.

58.2% of his FGA came from beyond the arc.
18.7% of his FGA occurred at the rim (significantly less than his playoff average for his career of 27.1% of his FGA being at the rim).

Looks like he's no longer willing to attack and take on the physicality in the traffic in his older age. He's just launching a ton of jumpers and avoiding earning his buckets.

Kemba Walker past two regular seasons in Boston:

52.8% of FGA beyond the arc
16.7% of FGA at the rim

It's the same playbook. When the munchkins get old, they stop attacking the rim and start jacking up all their shots from safe confines of the 3 point line to avoid the physicality. It's the calm before the cliff.

[eyeatoma]

Tried to tell ya'll back in July that Dame was showing signs of being cooked

Lillard already showing subtle signs of aging if you look at his shot distribution this playoffs.

58.2% of his FGA came from beyond the arc.
18.7% of his FGA occurred at the rim (significantly less than his playoff average for his career of 27.1% of his FGA being at the rim).

Looks like he's no longer willing to attack and take on the physicality in the traffic in his older age. He's just launching a ton of jumpers and avoiding earning his buckets.

Kemba Walker past two regular seasons in Boston:

52.8% of FGA beyond the arc
16.7% of FGA at the rim

It's the same playbook. When the munchkins get old, they stop attacking the rim and start jacking up all their shots from safe confines of the 3 point line to avoid the physicality. It's the calm before the cliff.

I'm sure you're loving this.

[Roy The Natural]

Tried to tell ya'll back in July that Dame was showing signs of being cooked

Lillard already showing subtle signs of aging if you look at his shot distribution this playoffs.

58.2% of his FGA came from beyond the arc.
18.7% of his FGA occurred at the rim (significantly less than his playoff average for his career of 27.1% of his FGA being at the rim).

Looks like he's no longer willing to attack and take on the physicality in the traffic in his older age. He's just launching a ton of jumpers and avoiding earning his buckets.

Kemba Walker past two regular seasons in Boston:

52.8% of FGA beyond the arc
16.7% of FGA at the rim

It's the same playbook. When the munchkins get old, they stop attacking the rim and start jacking up all their shots from safe confines of the 3 point line to avoid the physicality. It's the calm before the cliff.

You're such a minimal effort poster. You should really spend a modicum of your time doing basic ground level research before declaring anything.

Dame has taken 50 shots through 3 games. 19 were at the rim. That's 38%.. he's finishing at 72% on the year... A career high.. According to your previous analysis that means he's utterly raw... The opposite of cooked.

PS. ... This post took under 2 minutes. Don't understand why you couldn't ground yourself in minimal analysis before your declaration.

[Iverson Armband]

You’ve got people here claiming Dame Lillard is washed after 3 games and that from all we’ve seen, Ben Simmons is likely NOT suffering from some form of mental illness, despite reports he’s seeing a shrink.

The amount of homerism on this board is off the charts

[Kobblehead]

Dame is an old munchkin on an albatross contract. He played soft in the playoffs, was terrible in the Olympics, and looks like trash in the early going.

[Skates]

We will know more about this team and other players by December, and they will know about themselves. I still want a Sacto deal first and foremost and they have a backcourt overload and once Harrison Barnes cools down, a frontcourt that offers little. Point forward Ben would look great there. Hield, Bagley (moved to a third team for a flyer on a wing) and Haliburton.

I wonder if Lillard and Billups are as poor of a match as they appear to be? I get the feeling Billups wants to start younger and put his own stamp on the team. They don't look win now in any manner, their bigs are getting crushed and Roco looks more washed every year.

[AaronB]

As I said in the previous thread, as soon as Simmons showed he would go scorched earth, there was no win in this for the 76ers.

Nothing that the 76ers could have done differently.

Unless Simmons has a change of heart, doubtful, his value is declining daily and he becomes a bigger distraction every day.

This ends very badly for the 76ers if a losing streak occurs in the next couple of weeks.

[Skates]

At his age and accomplishments Simmons value tanked as much as it would in the playoff series. Start of season trades are rare as all teams either think they are good or know they are rebuilding. By December many illusions of teams will be gone.

The point about the Sixers losing a lot with the team lacking PG play of any kind is legit and the biggest weakness of Morey’s strategy for the team now, but showing how the team struggles without Simmons after taking the top seed in the East with him may repair his trade value even as the team suffers for it. Is it a short term pain for long term gain crazy like a fox move by Morey? Only time will tell.

[Roy The Natural]

Dame is an old munchkin on an albatross contract. He played soft in the playoffs, was terrible in the Olympics, and looks like trash in the early going.

Top level analysis there bud. I get each board allows their own stuff, but at what point isn't this guy just the friendly neighborhood troll?

I mean... Fox is a good defender because his knickname in highschool was swipa???... Even though he dies on screens like a WW1 infantryman running into machinegun fire. Lillard is washed because .... Whatever BS he wants to run with that day, even though it's 100% objectively false... What is this???

Take like 45 seconds to ground your post in reality man.

[Roy The Natural]

We will know more about this team and other players by December, and they will know about themselves. I still want a Sacto deal first and foremost and they have a backcourt overload and once Harrison Barnes cools down, a frontcourt that offers little. Point forward Ben would look great there. Hield, Bagley (moved to a third team for a flyer on a wing) and Haliburton.

I wonder if Lillard and Billups are as poor of a match as they appear to be? I get the feeling Billups wants to start younger and put his own stamp on the team. They don't look win now in any manner, their bigs are getting crushed and Roco looks more washed every year.

I mean... It's possible they're not a good match. But the reality is Lillard is just missing jumpshota more than normal.... Over 3 games. Basically every other part of his game is at career norms.

[SixthStreet]

My position is that the Sixers should try their best to actually re-integrate Simmons with the intention of keeping him semi long term (2 season-ish). The way the team is playing offense is really suited for Simmons to maximize his impact. I think we are starting to develop the pieces that can work around his half court limitations in the playoffs.

We hold all our picks and have Thybulle as a trade chip. I wonder what a Curry, Thybulle a pick and 8-10mil in salary could get as an upgrade in the backcourt.

I know the bridges have been burned but maybe they can be rebuilt.

[Mik317]

Dame probably hasn't fallen off after 3 games

BUT there is a reality in which is comes fast when the fall off does happen.

But again all of this is moot unless he asks out anyway. He could be out there playing like me (trash) and Portland still wouldn't look to move him. Small Market teams can't afford to be seen as "disloyal" and as long as Dame wants to be there..he will.