https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=2015496
This year, perhaps due to the impact of COVID and the subsequent shutdown of high school basketball in Canada, will be the first in quite some time where we see a slight decline in the number of Canadians playing D1 basketball (153, compared to 158 last year). But I expect the trend to pick up again next year, with what looks to me like a deep 2022 Canadian class.
For a full list of all 153 Canadians in the NCAA, check out Matthew Winick’s excellent post here:
https://matthewwinick.medium.com/every-canadian-in-d-i-mens-college-basketball-for-the-2021-22-season-36c00a100b5
This coming season should still be a fun one to follow for a number of reasons. First, we’ll have 4 Canadians starting or playing a major role on top-10 pre-season title contenders (Gonzaga, Texas, Michigan, and Purdue). In addition, a bunch of other Canadians should be playing a major role on good to decent high-major teams (Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Creighton, TCU, and more) and plenty of others will be key pieces on mid-major programs.
Similar to previous years, I’ll dive in more detail into 5 players from each cohort (freshmen, sophomores, juniors, and seniors), more or less in order of how promising I think their potential is. In addition, I’ll mention briefly a couple of others from each class whom I’m somewhat curious to follow. As this can get quite lengthy, I’ll divide it into four write-ups, starting today with the freshmen, and then moving gradually through the classes (will keep it all in the same thread to prevent overflowing).
FRESHMEN
Not a lot of depth in this class in terms of elite talent. Only five true Canadian freshmen (not including red shirts) will be suiting up for high-major programs this college season. To put this in perspective, this is half the number from last year and if I had to guess, next year we should see around 10-15 new Canadians in high major teams. Part of the unimpressive number for this year might be due to Covid and the lack of exposure opportunities. But I also think that the Canadian class of 2021 is eventually just not that deep. That said, it might include a few dark horses – late bloomers with intriguing physical upside – who will be playing for mid-major programs. But all of them seem like long shots in terms of NBA potential.
Since there’s a lot of uncertainty with freshmen (even more after the long COVID hiatus), I’ll go beyond just the top-5 and instead mark 10 guys who seem to offer some long-term intrigue.
THE HIGH-MAJOR GUYS
Four of the five high-major guys are familiar names to Canadian basketball fans, having gone through the junior Canadian Team system. The 5th is a late bloomer who’s a last-minute addition to the list.
1. Caleb Houstan | Michigan | 18.8yo SF | 6'8, 205lbs | Mississauga, ON
Profile: Houstan is probably the guy who requires the least amount of introduction in this class, having been on the radar of Canadian basketball enthusiasts since he was 13. An excellent shooter, with good size and range, who doesn’t lose confidence even when things are not going his way. But Caleb is much more than just a shooter. He has a very good handle and poise for his size and is able to create his own shot and finish with both hands, though he lacks some pop and strength to be a highly efficient finisher in traffic. On the other end of the floor, he’s an elite help defender and can also cover bigger guards and wings in one-on-one defense, despite not being the quickest or strongest guy, as he has decent length, great defensive feel, and he reads the game very well.
Team context: They like their Mississauga guys up there in Ann Arbor (probably doesn’t hurt that it’s only a couple of hours drive). Following Stauskas and Brazdeikis, now it’s Houstan’s turn. And he should turn out to be the best of the three. Houstan Should start for a strong (top-10?) Michigan team from day one and be able to produce, on his way to being a late lottery (or slightly lower) pick. He should slide right into the vacuum left by the departure of Franz Wagner, in a team that has enough size and talent in the paint (most notably, excellent sophomore Hunter Dickinson and talented freshman Moussa Diabate) to allow him to operate as a full-time small forward. I Don’t think Houstan will ever become an NBA star, but he can certainly be a useful rotation player in the league for many years.
2. Ryan Nembhard | Creighton | 18.5yo PG | 6'0, 170lbs | Aurora, ON
Profile: I love the younger Nembhard’s skills and mentality and in some ways, I think he’s more talented than his older brother. His passing, game IQ, feel for the game, and floor general skills are on par with those of Andrew. But he’s a more aggressive player and a better athlete with more burst, who attacks the basket more consistently, looking for his own shot when open but also making the right pass when it’s there. Can score from all three levels, though his range and consistency from behind the arc still need some fine tuning. If he also had Andrew’s size, he would be a clear NBA prospect. But at 6’0, lacking significant length, strength, or freakish athleticism, it’s going to be an uphill battle. The shot will need to be elite and he’ll need to clean up his handle and cut the TOs to a minimum.
Team context: No high major team has lost more starters than Creighton, which opens up many opportunities for newcomers like Nembhard. Creighton has a very good recruiting class but will also be very young next year. And Nembhard should be a difference-maker from day one and probably be given the keys to the offense, alongside redshirt freshman Rati Andronikashvili, who’s coming back from a torn ACL. I also like sophomore center Ryan Kalkbrener, who’s in for a breakout year I think, and freshman forward Arthur Kaluma from Uganda. Creighton plays team-oriented basketball with good defense, so there’s a good chance that Nembhard will be one of the most productive Canadian freshmen out there next year, alongside his longtime high school teammate Houstan.
3. Enoch Boakye | Arizona State | 18.5yo C | 6'10, 255lbs, 7’6 wingspan | Brampton, ON
Profile: A bruiser old-fashioned center, with fantastic size and a strong frame, who plays hard with a good motor. Enoch is an excellent rebounder and plays with a lot of heart and hustle. Offensively, he’s not very explosive and not that polished, but his size, length, and force allow him to finish above the rim with authority and he doesn’t shy away from contact in the paint. He’s also quite fluid and has even shown flashes of being able to handle the ball a bit, though I think this is unlikely to translate at higher levels. He also has nice defensive potential with his length, strength, decent lateral movement, and good effort level.
Team context: Coming into a fairly depleted Arizona State frontcourt, Boakye should see playing time from day one and will have a chance to prove himself. That said, he suffered from some minor injuries this summer, so I’m not sure he’ll be in top shape right from the get-go. Beyond that, I’m still not quite convinced there’s enough NBA talent there. But I haven’t seen him play in quite a while so hoping to be pleasantly surprised. I don’t think Boakye starts, as the Sun Devils have a solid veteran frontcourt, led by PFs Jalen Graham, Kimani Lawrence, and the talented Marcus Bagley. Graham at least has enough size and pop to eat minutes at center. But Enoch is pretty much the only true center on this roster and should see a good amount of minutes.
4. Charles Bediako | Alabama | 19.5yo C | 7'0, 225lbs, 7’3 wingspan | Brampton, ON
Profile: Here’s a fun fact you probably didn’t know about the younger Bediako brother: He played in two U19 World Cups (one as a 17yo) and in both, he hit 100% of his 3-pointers. Of course, in each, he only took one shot and both of these shots were late-clock desperation 3s… That said, he also made about 70% of his free throws in these two tournaments, suggesting some untapped shooting potential. But before we get carried away, we need to remember that Bediako’s bread and butter will be in the paint, and there he did not impress much this summer with the U19 Canadian team. Didn’t quite show the pop, strength, and finishing touch I was hoping to see after two more years of development at IMG. And he continues to look a bit awkward and unpolished on offense, though the defensive potential is intriguing and he’s a good shot blocker.
Team context: Should find some minutes on a good Alabama team next year with his size, good energy, better strength, and natural instincts. Maybe he’ll even start as he’ll be the only true big man (over 6’8) on the team besides redshirt French freshman Alex Tchikou, who’s coming back from an Achilles tear injury. But I expect Bediako’s production to be quite limited and I think he’s still a long way from being an NBA prospect. Centers in today’s NBA are just asked to do so much to even get a chance in the league and I don’t think he’s there right now.
5. Ethan Butler | Oregon | 18.5yo SF | 6'6, 205lbs, 7’0 wingspan | Toronto, ON
Profile: Here’s a guy who very few in Canadian basketball circles have heard of up to a few months ago. Then he goes and gets an offer from one of the best basketball programs in the NCAA and before you know it he reclassifies and will be playing for the Ducks next year. Quite a Cinderella story. So what do we know about him? Butler is a good defender with his great size, good athleticism, and high activity level. His offensive game has been developing but remains limited at this point, including mainly transition finishes, some straight-line drives, and rim running. He can also shoot some when left open, but his release looks a bit low and doesn’t seem very fluid. Overall, I didn’t have many chances to watch him over the last two years. But when I did, I couldn’t see much evidence that he’s more talented than some of the guys I’m going to mention below (e.g. Jacob Holt or Kordell Carles).
Team context: I guess the Oregon scouts saw something special there and they’ve had success with Canadian prospects before (though also some misses) so I’m glad he got there. He’s young and should be a long-term prospect even if it’s hard to see him playing significant minutes this season.
MID-MAJOR COMBO-FORWARDS
Even beyond Houstan and Butler, this class has an unusually large number of combo-forward prospects with intriguing tools. All of them are 6’8 or 6’9 and have shown some titillating perimeter skills, but none will be playing for a high-major college this year. At this point, It’s really hard for me to assess which of them is the best/most promising given the limited competitive basketball they’ve played over the past year or two. So I’m putting them below in alphabetical order without ranking them. I suspect most of them will not see big minutes in the coming year (if at all). But I’m hoping for strength in numbers and that at least one or two of them eventually break out.
Kordell Charles | East Tennessee State | 19.2yo SF | 6’8, 205lbs | Caledon, ON
Profile: In terms of raw talent and basketball skills, Charles belongs in the top-5. He’s smooth, sporting a clean good-looking shot, pretty good handle, and bouncy above-the-rim athleticism. I do have some doubts regarding his mentality and motor though. Somehow, his talent hasn’t translated into steady production so far and he seemed quite complacent or even lost on the court at younger ages, lacking a degree of toughness and competitiveness. That said, I haven’t watched him play competitive basketball in nearly two years, during which he also suffered a serious leg injury. One can hope that he used this time to mature not only physically but also mentally, as the talent is undeniable.
Team context: Charles had offers from a couple of high-major programs, but chose East Tennessee, which might be a wise decision, as it doesn’t seem too deep in the forward positions. So hopefully he can get some playing time right from the get go and make an impact.
Jacob Holt | Santa Barbara | 18.3yo SF/PF | 6'9, 215lbs | Delta, BC
Profile: The youngest guy on this list could have easily remained in the class of 2022. Holt is one of the more interesting talents coming out of BC in recent years and perhaps the guy I’m most excited about on this list. A physical late-bloomer, he was only a 6-footer entering high school and played guard. Then he had significant growth spurts over the last few years all the way to a 6’9 forward (Olynyk anyone?). Jacob has a smooth-looking shooting stroke and a nice mix of a functional handle, strength, mobility, and decent athleticism. He’s got good paint presence, rebounding, and shot-blocking abilities, as well as good footwork. But he’s also very comfortable playing on the perimeter, making shots or attacking close-outs, and I think that’s where his real potential as a next-level player is. If he can stay with other SFs defensively, he has a chance to be a special player given his size, versatility, skill, and shooting.
Team context: Much like the greatest BC basketball product of all time (not Marc Tarsolini), Holt almost stayed home to play his college basketball in Canada. Due to the pandemic, he wasn’t playing competitive basketball and no one was able to see the growth of his game (and frame). But then, in late 2020, he released a mixtape that he prepared himself (sounds familiar?), and right away he started getting calls from D1 coaches. They still wanted to see him in person, but Santa Clara pulled the plug and offered.
The Broncos have a long history with Canadians and are also one of the most “Canadian” colleges in the NCAA right now, with 4 Canucks on the roster this year. And the BC connection seems particularly strong. Beyond the obvious (Nash), in recent decades the Broncos also had BC products Marc Tarsolini (2008-2013), Sean Denison (2003-2007), Steve Ross (1998-2000), and Brendan Graves (1993-1996), who played alongside Nash. Currently, they also have sophomore Miguel Tomley on the roster, a sharpshooter from Surrey. I think Holt is good enough to get minutes from day one and perhaps even carve a significant role. Especially since senior stretch forward Danilo Djuricic, the Harvard transfer, who was supposed to be the fifth Canadian on the roster, decided to go pro just before the start of the season. This should provide additional minutes and opportunities for Holt and a real chance to show what he’s got.
Marlon Lestin | East Carolina University | 19yo PF | 6'9, 200lbs | Montreal, QC
Profile: The Haiti-born Lestin only started playing basketball at age 15 and his game is still growing. A very good athlete who can shoot it a bit (shooting stroke looks okay though it’s not very fluid), defend on the perimeter, and pass. Reminds me a bit of another Montrealer, Tyrese Samuel from a physical and athletic standpoint, sporting a good frame that should fill out with time. Perhaps not the same level of raw talent, but Lestin seems to have a more consistent motor. He’s also a good instinctive shot blocker. His perimeter skills are still a work in progress and while he can certainly put the ball on the floor, he’s largely limited to straight-line drives.
Team context: East Carolina is pretty loaded in the paint, so it remains to be seen how much playing time Lestin actually gets this year and whether he can make a real impact as a rookie or whether he’ll need more time to adjust to this level.
Justin Ndjock-Tadjore | St. Bonaventure | 19yo SG/SF | 6’8, 190lbs | Aylmer, QC
Profile: Like many QC players (Boucher; Dort; Mathurin; and Lestin above), JNT started playing basketball only in his teens and he’s also a late-bloomer physically. So he’s still adjusting to his body and needs to get stronger, but he has intriguing talent. A good athlete with some skill, who can finish easily above the rim or find the open man (a willing passer). Also has a nice Euro-step and some deception on his finishes, though he still lacks a degree of wiggle in tight spaces. His 3-point shooting form looks quite fluid when he’s open, but he doesn’t seem very confident taking them at this point. Much more of a slasher. Also needs to improve attacking and finishing with his left hand.
Team context: St. Bonaventure is stacked and is a really good team (arguably top-25 in the NCAA), with a significant number of older players. The starting five are all seniors who came back after last year’s terrific run to the big dance. All of them had at least 10 points and 5 rebounds a game last year, a testimony to the great balance and depth of this team. On the bench, you find three more experienced juniors. So I actually don’t expect JNT to get too many chances this year (maybe even a red-shirt?). He’s probably more of a long-term prospect, but I see some intrigue with him as a potential big shooting guard if he can further improve his shooting stroke, handle, and body.
Nana Owusu-Anane | Brown | 19.6yo PF | 6'8, 220lbs | Burlington, ON
Profile: The most pleasant surprise in the U19 WC this summer, Owusu-Anane might not have the highest ceiling of this group, but he might be the readiest of them all to bring immediate impact to his team. In the U19s he showed a lot of heart and a great motor on both ends of the floor. Doesn’t have the most polished offensive game and he’s not really a guy who creates much for himself. But he’s a good cutter, who gets opportunistic points off of hustle plays and being in the right place, while also being able to make the occasional perimeter shot. Relies on his strength to get to the rim and finish with contact. Also, he's a terrific defender, who always provides full effort and doesn’t give up on plays.
Team context: As I note above, NOA Seems ready to contribute right away at Brown with his defensive effort and hustle on both ends of the floor. For good measure, I should also mention here Malachi Ndur, another combo-forward with a nearly identical physical profile (6’8, 215lbs), who’s also a former member of Team Canada (U16 in 2017). Ndur actually graduated from high school last year, but since the Ivy League season was canceled, he’s effectively going to be a freshman as well. Quite raw offensively from what I’ve last seen, but still interesting to follow and might be competing with NOA for minutes.
Muon Reath | San Diego | 19.0yo SF | 6’8, 185lbs, 7’0 wingspan | Ottawa, ON
Profile: A longtime NPH favorite, in theory, Reath is indeed one of the better talents in this class and has it all – size, length, ball skills, a nice-looking shooting stroke, and some lock-down defensive abilities. In practice, though, I haven’t seen all this goodness consistently materialize, except perhaps in stretches of defensive dominance. He did show some flashes, but offensively he’s just not there. His handle remains shaky, the shooting erratic and inconsistent, and the finishing touch around the basket is still lacking (probably at least partly due to lack of sufficient strength). I’ve also seen questionable decision-making, and maybe most worrisome, a tendency to blend in and disappear during games, even when playing against inferior competition. Hopefully, all of this has really improved during the last year, but I’ll need to see it to actually buy-in.
Team context: I’m actually not sure he’ll get much playing time in the coming year. San Diego has quite a few junior and senior transfers coming in, most in the forward positions, and Reath is not the most physically ready player at this point.
RED SHIRT FRESHMEN
I’ll mention three more guys who all played for the junior Canadian Team (U16 and U17) and missed last year because of injury or league cancelations, so effectively they’ll be rookies:
• Jefferson Koulibaly | Washington State | 20.1yo SG | 6'3, 180lbs | Montreal, QC. Koulibaly, who missed last season due to a foot injury, had arguably the most impressive season of any high school player who played in Canada before the pandemic broke. From the games I’ve watched before the high school season was shut down, something still seems to be lacking in terms of outside shooting and decision making, but he’s a good athlete and a much-improved playmaker who should have a nice college career, though I’m not sure how many minutes he’ll see this year behind a bunch of talented senior guard transfers.
• Joshua Hemmings | Harvard | 20.0yo PF | 6'9, 230lbs | Toronto, ON. Like Case, Hemmings also missed last year because of the Ivy League shutdown. Josh is not a high flyer and has a tendency to sometimes blend into the background. But he’s also got an intriguing skill level for his size that includes good shooting and the ability to put the ball on the floor. So I think he can get a decent amount of minutes as a backup to Harvard’s dominant PF Chris Ledlum, or maybe even as a big SF in some lineups.
• Matteus Case | Providence | 20.3yo SG | 6'5, 190lbs | Pickering, ON. Was supposed to play for Penn in the Ivy League last year but lost the season due to the league’s cancelation. Decided to transfer to the Big East. A polished shooting guard with a good shooting stroke. Not the most physical or explosive player, but depending on how much he’s worked on his body and skill during the hiatus can perhaps already find some minutes this year (going to be tough).
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