LeBron James' 4-6 Record is Equally As Impressive as Jordan's 6-0

[migya]

Everyone here is focusing, it seems, on minutiae in this debate.

Really simple question. And the only one that matters here:

Sansterre- You'd know this, if anyone would.

Who faced better teams in the NBA Finals, in the aggregate? Jordan, or Lebron?

Thank you. This should help cut through all the palaver here for 10 pages and get right to the heart of the issue at hand....

LeBron. Not close.

The counterpoint is that the *average* playoff team that Jordan faced was tougher than the *average* playoff team that LeBron faced (owing to LeBron's generally weaker conference).

So LeBron was much more likely to play an unusually weak playoff opponent than Jordan. But he was also far more likely to run into an ATG juggernaut than Jordan.

In a situation where both Jordan and LeBron had consistently strong teams, I believe that playing ATG-level opponents sometimes was a bigger disadvantage than playing lots of weaker teams was an advantage, but that is hardly official.

for the purposes of contendig teams is better to face a tougher average than a juggernaut top imo

for great teams is mostly the 60+~ win juggernaut that stop them from winning titles rather than the 55~ win borderline contenders (using win totals as aproximation, i know nobody considers 2015 hawks a juggernaut )

Team wins in any season is dependent much more on team talent, talent on other teams and league talent. Could be two or all of those.

The nva was far more talented and evenly matched between teams in the Jordan era than in Lebron's

[falcolombardi]

LeBron. Not close.

The counterpoint is that the *average* playoff team that Jordan faced was tougher than the *average* playoff team that LeBron faced (owing to LeBron's generally weaker conference).

So LeBron was much more likely to play an unusually weak playoff opponent than Jordan. But he was also far more likely to run into an ATG juggernaut than Jordan.

In a situation where both Jordan and LeBron had consistently strong teams, I believe that playing ATG-level opponents sometimes was a bigger disadvantage than playing lots of weaker teams was an advantage, but that is hardly official.

for the purposes of contendig teams is better to face a tougher average than a juggernaut top imo

for great teams is mostly the 60+~ win juggernaut that stop them from winning titles rather than the 55~ win borderline contenders (using win totals as aproximation, i know nobody considers 2015 hawks a juggernaut )

Team wins in any season is dependent much more on team talent, talent on other teams and league talent. Could be two or all of those.

The nva was far more talented and evenly matched between teams in the Jordan era than in Lebron's

based on what?

[magicman1978]

The Heat's second best player was in his prime and at a top 5 player level in 2011. The third best player was obviously not getting the ball as much as he was on his previous team as a superstar but the numbers were comparatively still on a superstar level. That team did had by far the best top talent of all teams yet did not win the most. Were they only one win better, talent wise, than the very young OKC, the lead by duo Lakers and one star only Dallas? Were they less talented than the one star only and a young star at that Chicago, aging and no star (at least their star didn't have anywhere near the numbers like his previous years) Spurs?

Are we talking about 2014 Spurs vs Heat or something else completely now? You've just thrown in at least 4-5 other teams, some of which they beat, one they loss to (which they shouldn't have), non-finals series', a team they didn't play against.... In regards to the 14 Spurs, I already said the Spurs were not more talented (they were a healthier and deeper team). I have no idea what the discussion is anymore or what point you're trying to make.

Think it's pretty clear. Comparing the Lebron Heat with Wade still at his high level, to other teams that season.

Then why bring up the 2014 Spurs first? Wade was obviously not at a high level in the 2014 finals.

[ty 4191]

[
It was LeBron and it isn't remotely close.

Thank you, Cobinii and Sansterre!!!

Debate over, folks!! Move on!!!

[ty 4191]

The nva was far more talented and evenly matched between teams in the Jordan era than in Lebron's

The teams have been FAR more evenly matched in Lebron's era. Look at the standard deviation of winning percentages for Jordan's career and Lebron's. It's not even close.

Lebron has played his prime against 25%+ players for outside the United States. A truly globalized game. As late as 1997-1998, the NBA was less than 5% non US players!!

https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/532296/new-record-number-74-europeans-nba/

https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10

(scroll down for the chart)

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

(again, scroll down for the chart)

[DQuinn1575]

To be fair, the 92 Trail Blazers had 6 of their Top 7 were one-time all-stars,

How many of them were playing at that level in real time?

Because Lebron gets killed for 2011 but if we assign accolades from other years he lost to a team featuring an MVP, 4 all-NBA players, a DPOY, multiple additional all-stars, a 6 MOY, the only rookie to ever put up 50/40/80, a guy on the bench who has a 50 pt game, etc...

Previous accolades are irrelevant except to make a team look better than they are to justify a position. We would never suggest Kidd, Marion, or Peja were anything still resembling all-NBA players if we were honestly evaluating their play. But if our goal was to make Lebron look better by saying he lost to a Superteam we might.

Calling Danny Ainge, Uncle Cliffy, and Buck Williams all-stars based on something they did years before or years after.... And while Duckworth had recently been an all-star, nobody thought of him as an all-star center in 92.

I hate that attempt to paint a narrative. Mike does not need these narratives.

The 2011 Mavs and the 92 Suns each won 57 games. The Suns SRS was 2 better, each beat 2 50 win teams on way to playoffs.
If you were to run a poll the Mavs would win, probably easily.
If you were to rank them not including Finals, Suns would win poll based on SRS.

Ainge agreed better days were behind.
Uncle Cliffy yes, better days ahead -
but these two are the 6th and 7th man. And both might start on the 92 Bulls.
Buck Williams led league in eFG% 2 years in a row, had second best VORP of his career in 1992, made 1st team all-defense in 91, 2nd team in 92. He got votes for All-NBA in 91 and 92.
All 5 players got at least a vote for All-NBA in 91, 3 in 92.

[Texas Chuck]

The 2011 Mavs and the 92 Suns each won 57 games. The Suns SRS was 2 better, each beat 2 50 win teams on way to playoffs.
If you were to run a poll the Mavs would win, probably easily.
If you were to rank them not including Finals, Suns would win poll based on SRS.

Ainge agreed better days were behind.
Uncle Cliffy yes, better days ahead -
but these two are the 6th and 7th man. And both might start on the 92 Bulls.
Buck Williams led league in eFG% 2 years in a row, had second best VORP of his career in 1992, made 1st team all-defense in 91, 2nd team in 92. He got votes for All-NBA in 91 and 92.
All 5 players got at least a vote for All-NBA in 91, 3 in 92.

I have zero issues with you telling me the Blazers had talented players. I'm simply saying 6 all-stars is a meaningless way to go about it.

I mean look at the early 00's Blazers:

Pippen
Sabonis
Sheed
Stoudamire
Steve Smith
Jermaine
Detlef
Bonzi
Brian Grant

all on one team. I didn't even list Augmon or Anthony

Next year they add Shawn Kemp, Rod Strickland, Dale Davis in place of Jermaine and Grant.

Those were legit deep veteran teams. But they weren't the best versions of the vast majority of those names.

Just wish we were more honest in how we presented players.

[ty 4191]

Everyone here is focusing, it seems, on minutiae in this debate.

Really simple question. And the only one that matters here:

Sansterre- You'd know this, if anyone would.

Who faced better teams in the NBA Finals, in the aggregate? Jordan, or Lebron?

Thank you. This should help cut through all the palaver here for 10 pages and get right to the heart of the issue at hand....

LeBron. Not close.

The counterpoint is that the *average* playoff team that Jordan faced was tougher than the *average* playoff team that LeBron faced (owing to LeBron's generally weaker conference).

So LeBron was much more likely to play an unusually weak playoff opponent than Jordan. But he was also far more likely to run into an ATG juggernaut than Jordan.

In a situation where both Jordan and LeBron had consistently strong teams, I believe that playing ATG-level opponents sometimes was a bigger disadvantage than playing lots of weaker teams was an advantage, but that is hardly official.

Lebron faced much better teams in the Finals. Period.

What else is there to debate? This is ridiculous.

[Sebastian]

It's objectively more impressive. I don't think there is really much question about that.

PM me your address so I can send you a dictionary for Christmas

Subjectively, LeBron being able to cake-walk to the Finals as often as he did and having a losing record there is not even close to going 6/6.

[Texas Chuck]

It's objectively more impressive. I don't think there is really much question about that.

PM me your address so I can send you a dictionary for Christmas

Subjectively, LeBron being able to cake-walk to the Finals as often as he did and having a losing record there is not even close to going 6/6.

Do you think I don't know the difference between objective and subjective?

And I stand by objectively. Subjectively we've gotten lots of ridiculous takes such as cakewalking to the Finals ten times is a real thing that ever happens.

[Sebastian]

It's objectively more impressive. I don't think there is really much question about that.

PM me your address so I can send you a dictionary for Christmas

Subjectively, LeBron being able to cake-walk to the Finals as often as he did and having a losing record there is not even close to going 6/6.

Do you think I don't know the difference between objective and subjective?

And I stand by objectively. Subjectively we've gotten lots of ridiculous takes such as cakewalking to the Finals ten times is a real thing that ever happens.

Do you prefer Merriam-Webster or American Heritage?

He didn't cakewalk ten times, but he cakewalked a lot. MJ never had that benefit. Same reason I put a lot less stock in Magic going to the Finals 9 times than most -- the West was full of garbage a lot of those years. Points deducted for both.

[Texas Chuck]

PM me your address so I can send you a dictionary for Christmas

Subjectively, LeBron being able to cake-walk to the Finals as often as he did and having a losing record there is not even close to going 6/6.

Do you think I don't know the difference between objective and subjective?

And I stand by objectively. Subjectively we've gotten lots of ridiculous takes such as cakewalking to the Finals ten times is a real thing that ever happens.

Do you prefer Merriam-Webster or American Heritage?

He didn't cakewalk ten times, but he cakewalked a lot. MJ never had that benefit. Same reason I put a lot less stock in Magic going to the Finals 9 times than most -- the West was full of garbage a lot of those years. Points deducted for both.

Your point to me had validity until you started making these dismissive points on Lebron and Magic. So I'll pass on the dictionary, but it is a kind offer.

Leading your team to the playoffs 10x is a meaningful accomplishment. Having them win 12 playoff games 10x is something very few players have ever done.

Calling it cakewalking to dismiss Lebron is of course beneath all of us. Now if you what you really mean is Lebron was so freaking great that he made a very difficult task to complete 10x look like a cakewalk okay that's reasonable. But reading your context suggests that's not what you are saying.

It really sucks too. I wish we had more pro-Mike guys who didn't resort to these ridiculous narratives and stopped with the myth of Mike. Because he doesn't need any of this for his greatness to be firmly established.

Will never understand all you posters determined to zero sum this. Where to compliment one, you must trash the accomplishments of the other as if one has one iota to do with the other. Such an utter waste of time and I feel like I never hear a really good pro-Jordan case because of it.

[ty 4191]

Your point to me had validity until you started making these dismissive points on Lebron and Magic. So I'll pass on the dictionary, but it is a kind offer.

Leading your team to the playoffs 10x is a meaningful accomplishment. Having them win 12 playoff games 10x is something very few players have ever done.

Calling it cakewalking to dismiss Lebron is of course beneath all of us. Now if you what you really mean is Lebron was so freaking great that he made a very difficult task to complete 10x look like a cakewalk okay that's reasonable. But reading your context suggests that's not what you are saying.

It really sucks too. I wish we had more pro-Mike guys who didn't resort to these ridiculous narratives and stopped with the myth of Mike. Because he doesn't need any of this for his greatness to be firmly established.

Will never understand all you posters determined to zero sum this. Where to compliment one, you must trash the accomplishments of the other as if one has one iota to do with the other. Such an utter waste of time and I feel like I never hear a really good pro-Jordan case because of it.

Really sums it up perfectly. Excellent post.

[falcolombardi]

Do you think I don't know the difference between objective and subjective?

And I stand by objectively. Subjectively we've gotten lots of ridiculous takes such as cakewalking to the Finals ten times is a real thing that ever happens.

Do you prefer Merriam-Webster or American Heritage?

He didn't cakewalk ten times, but he cakewalked a lot. MJ never had that benefit. Same reason I put a lot less stock in Magic going to the Finals 9 times than most -- the West was full of garbage a lot of those years. Points deducted for both.

Your point to me had validity until you started making these dismissive points on Lebron and Magic. So I'll pass on the dictionary, but it is a kind offer.

Leading your team to the playoffs 10x is a meaningful accomplishment. Having them win 12 playoff games 10x is something very few players have ever done.

Calling it cakewalking to dismiss Lebron is of course beneath all of us. Now if you what you really mean is Lebron was so freaking great that he made a very difficult task to complete 10x look like a cakewalk okay that's reasonable. But reading your context suggests that's not what you are saying.

It really sucks too. I wish we had more pro-Mike guys who didn't resort to these ridiculous narratives and stopped with the myth of Mike. Because he doesn't need any of this for his greatness to be firmly established.

Will never understand all you posters determined to zero sum this. Where to compliment one, you must trash the accomplishments of the other as if one has one iota to do with the other. Such an utter waste of time and I feel like I never hear a really good pro-Jordan case because of it.

lakers with magic, kareem (primes not overlapping of course*) and a generally great team went to 7 finals out of 9 tries, that was a team good enough to beat great bit celtics teams 2/3 times or beat great sixers teams pre moses twice

lebron teams, sometimes with lesser talent/health (like 2018) did it even better by making 8 finals in a toe without getting upset by weaker teams like happened yo even the showtime lakers

that lebron teams dominated their conference even better than the showtime lakers is a feather in his cap

[sansterre]

Hokay so. I had a weird idea.

Basically, I wanted to try moving LeBron's teams into Jordan's years, and vice versa, to see what would happen. I'm not really trying to prove anything, just do it as a thought experiment.

For team ratings I'll be using my OSRS (v1), which is a mix of regular season and postseason performance. I'll be using the Hardball Times playoff series calculator for the results and using historical NBA spread results for probability of winning specific games. For seeding I'm slotting the team in based on their real wins (not adjusting for era, but am adjusting for season length), and for other matchups I'm *always* assuming that the higher seed wins except in the opposite conference (because obviously this will throw off how the playoff matchups are).

I'm porting Jordan's 1985-1993 and '95-98 into LeBron's 2007-2018 and 2020 (and vice versa).

Disclaimers: OSRS isn't perfect by a long shot. It doesn't take into account injuries (except where those injuries affected team performance). There are plenty of holes you could poke into this. I'm not trying to prove anything - I just thought it was a cool thought experiment.

Jordan playing in LeBron's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

1985 -> 2007: Didn't make the playoffs
1986 -> 2008: Didn't make the playoffs
1987 -> 2009: The '87 Bulls were pretty good, but they're clearly way worse than the Magic, Celtics or Lakers (1%/0%)
1988 -> 2010: The Magic and Lakers again pose monster obstacles and the Bulls weren't that good (1%/0%)
1989 -> 2011: The '89 Bulls are expected to hold their own, challenging the '11 Bulls and '11 Celtics - they're not in the same league as the Mavs. (15%/2%)
1990 -> 2012: Once again the Bulls are expected to be challengers, but the '12 Pacers and '12 Bulls should be serious challenges and the Thunder are on another level (23%/3%).
1991 -> 2013: The '91 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference, and soundly beat the Spurs. (98%/73%)
1992 -> 2014: The '92 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the '14 Spurs toe to toe. (97%/46%)
1993 -> 2015: The '93 Bulls are expected to dominate their conference, but get stomped by the Warriors (78%/15%)
1995 -> 2016: The '95 Bulls are expected to be the favorites in their conference, and then get stomped by the Warriors (37%/2%)
1996 -> 2017: The '96 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and be edged out by the Warriors (100%/24%)
1997 -> 2018: The '97 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the Warriors toe to toe (91%/43%)
1998 -> 2020: The '98 Bulls are expected to stomp through the playoffs without serious opposition (88%/79%)

Expected Results: 6.28 Finals Appearances and 2.86 Rings

Thoughts: It's a little ridiculous how badly the Bulls outclass their conference from 2013-2020. That the '95 Bulls would be the favorite to come out of the East in 2015 should tell you how bad that conference was. But those Finals opponents are no joke.

LeBron playing in Jordan's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

2007 -> 1985: The Cavs are expected to hold their own overall, but they aren't comparable to the Celtics or Lakers (16%/1%)
2008 -> 1986: The 2008 Cavs have no chance of beating the '86 Celtics (0%/0%)
2009 -> 1987: The 2009 Cavs are expected to dominate the East and play the '87 Lakers toe to toe (78%/36%)
2010 -> 1988: The 2010 Cavs are decent, but no better than the '88 Hawks/Celtics/Lakers. (22%/10%)
2011 -> 1989: The 2011 Heat are expected to make the conference finals but be badly outclassed by the Pistons and Lakers (11%/4%)
2012 -> 1990: The 2012 Heat are expected to dominate their conference (though with a tough series against Detroit) and whip the Blazers (72%/67%)
2013 -> 1991: The 2013 Heat are expected to stomp their conference and outclass the Lakers in the Finals (83%/60%)
2014 -> 1992: The 2014 Heat are expected to make it as far as the Conference Finals, but the Cavs (and definitely Blazers) are better (20%/4%)
2015 -> 1993: The 2015 Cavs are expected to be the favorite in their Conference, and be better than the Suns (who OSRS hates) (41%/28%)
2016 -> 1995: The 2016 Cavs are expected to stomp their conference and crush the Rockets (85%/74%)
2017 -> 1996: The 2017 Cavs are expected to dominate their conference (tough matchup against the Magic) and play the Sonics toe to toe (67%/34%)
2018 -> 1997: The 2018 Cavs are expected not to make it out of the first round (2%/0%)
2020 -> 1998: The 2020 Lakers are expected to dominate their conference and outclass Utah (71%/52%)

Expected Results: 5.68 Finals Appearances and 3.70 Rings

Thoughts: LeBron never has a total cakewalk, but the tougher Eastern Conference that Jordan played isn't that big a challenge, only dropping the odds of making the Finals by 10-20% or so per season. And the easier Finals opponents really help.

Seasons with the highest odds of making the Finals:

1. '96 Jordan in 2017: 100%
2. '91 Jordan in 2013: 98%
3. '92 Jordan in 2014: 97%
4. '97 Jordan in 2018: 91%
5. '98 Jordan in 2020: 88%
6. '16 LeBron in 1995: 85%
7. '13 LeBron in 1991: 83%
8. '09 LeBron in 1987: 78%
9. '93 Jordan in 2015: 78%
10. '12 LeBron in 1990: 72%

Seasons with the highest odds of Winning the Finals:

1. '98 Jordan in 2020: 79%
2. '16 LeBron in 1995: 74%
3. '91 Jordan in 2013: 73%
4. '12 LeBron in 1990: 67%
5. '13 LeBron in 1991: 60%
6. '20 LeBron in 1998: 52%
7. '92 Jordan in 2014: 46%
8. '97 Jordan in 2018: 43%
9. '09 LeBron in 1987: 36%
10. '17 LeBron in 1996: 34%

Again. None of this is trying to prove anything. It was simply a neat little exercise that I thought would be interesting to perform and read.

[Colbinii]

Hokay so. I had a weird idea.

Basically, I wanted to try moving LeBron's teams into Jordan's years, and vice versa, to see what would happen. I'm not really trying to prove anything, just do it as a thought experiment.

For team ratings I'll be using my OSRS (v1), which is a mix of regular season and postseason performance. I'll be using the Hardball Times playoff series calculator for the results and using historical NBA spread results for probability of winning specific games. For seeding I'm slotting the team in based on their real wins (not adjusting for era, but am adjusting for season length), and for other matchups I'm *always* assuming that the higher seed wins except in the opposite conference (because obviously this will throw off how the playoff matchups are).

I'm porting Jordan's 1985-1993 and '95-98 into LeBron's 2007-2018 and 2020 (and vice versa).

Disclaimers: OSRS isn't perfect by a long shot. It doesn't take into account injuries (except where those injuries affected team performance). There are plenty of holes you could poke into this. I'm not trying to prove anything - I just thought it was a cool thought experiment.

Jordan playing in LeBron's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

1985 -> 2007: Didn't make the playoffs
1986 -> 2008: Didn't make the playoffs
1987 -> 2009: The '87 Bulls were pretty good, but they're clearly way worse than the Magic, Celtics or Lakers (1%/0%)
1988 -> 2010: The Magic and Lakers again pose monster obstacles and the Bulls weren't that good (1%/0%)
1989 -> 2011: The '89 Bulls are expected to hold their own, challenging the '11 Bulls and '11 Celtics - they're not in the same league as the Mavs. (15%/2%)
1990 -> 2012: Once again the Bulls are expected to be challengers, but the '12 Pacers and '12 Bulls should be serious challenges and the Thunder are on another level (23%/3%).
1991 -> 2013: The '91 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference, and soundly beat the Spurs. (98%/73%)
1992 -> 2014: The '92 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the '14 Spurs toe to toe. (97%/46%)
1993 -> 2015: The '93 Bulls are expected to dominate their conference, but get stomped by the Warriors (78%/15%)
1995 -> 2016: The '95 Bulls are expected to be the favorites in their conference, and then get stomped by the Warriors (37%/2%)
1996 -> 2017: The '96 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and be edged out by the Warriors (100%/24%)
1997 -> 2018: The '97 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the Warriors toe to toe (91%/43%)
1998 -> 2020: The '98 Bulls are expected to stomp through the playoffs without serious opposition (88%/79%)

Expected Results: 6.28 Finals Appearances and 2.86 Rings

Thoughts: It's a little ridiculous how badly the Bulls outclass their conference from 2013-2020. That the '95 Bulls would be the favorite to come out of the East in 2015 should tell you how bad that conference was. But those Finals opponents are no joke.

LeBron playing in Jordan's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

2007 -> 1985: The Cavs are expected to hold their own overall, but they aren't comparable to the Celtics or Lakers (16%/1%)
2008 -> 1986: The 2008 Cavs have no chance of beating the '86 Celtics (0%/0%)
2009 -> 1987: The 2009 Cavs are expected to dominate the East and play the '87 Lakers toe to toe (78%/36%)
2010 -> 1988: The 2010 Cavs are decent, but no better than the '88 Hawks/Celtics/Lakers. (22%/10%)
2011 -> 1989: The 2011 Heat are expected to make the conference finals but be badly outclassed by the Pistons and Lakers (11%/4%)
2012 -> 1990: The 2012 Heat are expected to dominate their conference (though with a tough series against Detroit) and whip the Blazers (72%/67%)
2013 -> 1991: The 2013 Heat are expected to stomp their conference and outclass the Lakers in the Finals (83%/60%)
2014 -> 1992: The 2014 Heat are expected to make it as far as the Conference Finals, but the Cavs (and definitely Blazers) are better (20%/4%)
2015 -> 1993: The 2015 Cavs are expected to be the favorite in their Conference, and be better than the Suns (who OSRS hates) (41%/28%)
2016 -> 1995: The 2016 Cavs are expected to stomp their conference and crush the Rockets (85%/74%)
2017 -> 1996: The 2017 Cavs are expected to dominate their conference (tough matchup against the Magic) and play the Sonics toe to toe (67%/34%)
2018 -> 1997: The 2018 Cavs are expected not to make it out of the first round (2%/0%)
2020 -> 1998: The 2020 Lakers are expected to dominate their conference and outclass Utah (71%/52%)

Expected Results: 5.68 Finals Appearances and 3.70 Rings

Thoughts: LeBron never has a total cakewalk, but the tougher Eastern Conference that Jordan played isn't that big a challenge, only dropping the odds of making the Finals by 10-20% or so per season. And the easier Finals opponents really help.

Seasons with the highest odds of making the Finals:

1. '96 Jordan in 2017: 100%
2. '91 Jordan in 2013: 98%
3. '92 Jordan in 2014: 97%
4. '97 Jordan in 2018: 91%
5. '98 Jordan in 2020: 88%
6. '16 LeBron in 1995: 85%
7. '13 LeBron in 1991: 83%
8. '09 LeBron in 1987: 78%
9. '93 Jordan in 2015: 78%
10. '12 LeBron in 1990: 72%

Seasons with the highest odds of Winning the Finals:

1. '98 Jordan in 2020: 79%
2. '16 LeBron in 1995: 74%
3. '91 Jordan in 2013: 73%
4. '12 LeBron in 1990: 67%
5. '13 LeBron in 1991: 60%
6. '20 LeBron in 1998: 52%
7. '92 Jordan in 2014: 46%
8. '97 Jordan in 2018: 43%
9. '09 LeBron in 1987: 36%
10. '17 LeBron in 1996: 34%

Again. None of this is trying to prove anything. It was simply a neat little exercise that I thought would be interesting to perform and read.

Yeah but LeBron played with more talent.

[falcolombardi]

Hokay so. I had a weird idea.

Basically, I wanted to try moving LeBron's teams into Jordan's years, and vice versa, to see what would happen. I'm not really trying to prove anything, just do it as a thought experiment.

For team ratings I'll be using my OSRS (v1), which is a mix of regular season and postseason performance. I'll be using the Hardball Times playoff series calculator for the results and using historical NBA spread results for probability of winning specific games. For seeding I'm slotting the team in based on their real wins (not adjusting for era, but am adjusting for season length), and for other matchups I'm *always* assuming that the higher seed wins except in the opposite conference (because obviously this will throw off how the playoff matchups are).

I'm porting Jordan's 1985-1993 and '95-98 into LeBron's 2007-2018 and 2020 (and vice versa).

Disclaimers: OSRS isn't perfect by a long shot. It doesn't take into account injuries (except where those injuries affected team performance). There are plenty of holes you could poke into this. I'm not trying to prove anything - I just thought it was a cool thought experiment.

Jordan playing in LeBron's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

1985 -> 2007: Didn't make the playoffs
1986 -> 2008: Didn't make the playoffs
1987 -> 2009: The '87 Bulls were pretty good, but they're clearly way worse than the Magic, Celtics or Lakers (1%/0%)
1988 -> 2010: The Magic and Lakers again pose monster obstacles and the Bulls weren't that good (1%/0%)
1989 -> 2011: The '89 Bulls are expected to hold their own, challenging the '11 Bulls and '11 Celtics - they're not in the same league as the Mavs. (15%/2%)
1990 -> 2012: Once again the Bulls are expected to be challengers, but the '12 Pacers and '12 Bulls should be serious challenges and the Thunder are on another level (23%/3%).
1991 -> 2013: The '91 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference, and soundly beat the Spurs. (98%/73%)
1992 -> 2014: The '92 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the '14 Spurs toe to toe. (97%/46%)
1993 -> 2015: The '93 Bulls are expected to dominate their conference, but get stomped by the Warriors (78%/15%)
1995 -> 2016: The '95 Bulls are expected to be the favorites in their conference, and then get stomped by the Warriors (37%/2%)
1996 -> 2017: The '96 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and be edged out by the Warriors (100%/24%)
1997 -> 2018: The '97 Bulls are expected to completely vaporize their conference and play the Warriors toe to toe (91%/43%)
1998 -> 2020: The '98 Bulls are expected to stomp through the playoffs without serious opposition (88%/79%)

Expected Results: 6.28 Finals Appearances and 2.86 Rings

Thoughts: It's a little ridiculous how badly the Bulls outclass their conference from 2013-2020. That the '95 Bulls would be the favorite to come out of the East in 2015 should tell you how bad that conference was. But those Finals opponents are no joke.

LeBron playing in Jordan's seasons (%chance of making Finals, %chance winning Finals):

2007 -> 1985: The Cavs are expected to hold their own overall, but they aren't comparable to the Celtics or Lakers (16%/1%)
2008 -> 1986: The 2008 Cavs have no chance of beating the '86 Celtics (0%/0%)
2009 -> 1987: The 2009 Cavs are expected to dominate the East and play the '87 Lakers toe to toe (78%/36%)
2010 -> 1988: The 2010 Cavs are decent, but no better than the '88 Hawks/Celtics/Lakers. (22%/10%)
2011 -> 1989: The 2011 Heat are expected to make the conference finals but be badly outclassed by the Pistons and Lakers (11%/4%)
2012 -> 1990: The 2012 Heat are expected to dominate their conference (though with a tough series against Detroit) and whip the Blazers (72%/67%)
2013 -> 1991: The 2013 Heat are expected to stomp their conference and outclass the Lakers in the Finals (83%/60%)
2014 -> 1992: The 2014 Heat are expected to make it as far as the Conference Finals, but the Cavs (and definitely Blazers) are better (20%/4%)
2015 -> 1993: The 2015 Cavs are expected to be the favorite in their Conference, and be better than the Suns (who OSRS hates) (41%/28%)
2016 -> 1995: The 2016 Cavs are expected to stomp their conference and crush the Rockets (85%/74%)
2017 -> 1996: The 2017 Cavs are expected to dominate their conference (tough matchup against the Magic) and play the Sonics toe to toe (67%/34%)
2018 -> 1997: The 2018 Cavs are expected not to make it out of the first round (2%/0%)
2020 -> 1998: The 2020 Lakers are expected to dominate their conference and outclass Utah (71%/52%)

Expected Results: 5.68 Finals Appearances and 3.70 Rings

Thoughts: LeBron never has a total cakewalk, but the tougher Eastern Conference that Jordan played isn't that big a challenge, only dropping the odds of making the Finals by 10-20% or so per season. And the easier Finals opponents really help.

Seasons with the highest odds of making the Finals:

1. '96 Jordan in 2017: 100%
2. '91 Jordan in 2013: 98%
3. '92 Jordan in 2014: 97%
4. '97 Jordan in 2018: 91%
5. '98 Jordan in 2020: 88%
6. '16 LeBron in 1995: 85%
7. '13 LeBron in 1991: 83%
8. '09 LeBron in 1987: 78%
9. '93 Jordan in 2015: 78%
10. '12 LeBron in 1990: 72%

Seasons with the highest odds of Winning the Finals:

1. '98 Jordan in 2020: 79%
2. '16 LeBron in 1995: 74%
3. '91 Jordan in 2013: 73%
4. '12 LeBron in 1990: 67%
5. '13 LeBron in 1991: 60%
6. '20 LeBron in 1998: 52%
7. '92 Jordan in 2014: 46%
8. '97 Jordan in 2018: 43%
9. '09 LeBron in 1987: 36%
10. '17 LeBron in 1996: 34%

Again. None of this is trying to prove anything. It was simply a neat little exercise that I thought would be interesting to perform and read.

Yeah but LeBron played with more talent.

maybe but the difference if there is one is probably overstated because lebron had the better scorers/offensive players (love, kyrie, wade) but jordan had overall more defensive/rebounding help (the bulls second threepeat was a defense and offensive rebounding driven dinasty more so than by offense )

the offensive/scorers are inherently over valued relative to the great defenders or rebounders

add all the hurt years like 15,19 or the pre miami rosters who didnt have other legit star talent and i feel it is a lot closer than usually seen like

[twyzted]

The nva was far more talented and evenly matched between teams in the Jordan era than in Lebron's

The teams have been FAR more evenly matched in Lebron's era. Look at the standard deviation of winning percentages for Jordan's career and Lebron's. It's not even close.

Lebron has played his prime against 25%+ players for outside the United States. A truly globalized game. As late as 1997-1998, the NBA was less than 5% non US players!!

https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/532296/new-record-number-74-europeans-nba/

https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10

(scroll down for the chart)

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

(again, scroll down for the chart)

The thing is european/south american players didnt join the the nba at that time because they got higher pay playing in europe and because if they played in nba the could not play for their national teams.

Here is srs for the ec teams Lebrons teams played to get to the finals
11 1.01 4.83 6.53 = 4.12
12 2.39 2.60 2.26 = 2.4
13 -1.83 -.02 3.34 = 0.49
14 -.89 -1.58 3.63 = 0.39
15 -.40 2.54 4.75 = 2.3
16 .43 3.49 4.08 = 2.6
17 .03 3.65 2.25 = 1.97
18 1.18 7.29 3.23 = 3.9

ec teams Jordan played
89 7.95 3.62 6.24 = 5.93
90 -1.06 4.23 5.41 = 2.86
91 -.43 -.39 3.08 = .75
92 -3.94 3.67 5.34 = 1.69
93 -.67 6.19 5.87 = 3.8
96 1.46 2.24 5.4 = 3 7
97 1.77 5.52 5.56 = 4.28
98 1.88 2.45 6.25 = 3.52

This isnt really close outside of 2011
Jordan #1 #2 #5 #6 #7 #8

Only team who Lebron played who is better then any team the bulls faced in the finals are the warriors with Durant.

In 97-98 7.6% players were foreign.

In the last link the chart is for all foreign player who have played in the nba, not only who are currently in the nba.

[colts18]

The nva was far more talented and evenly matched between teams in the Jordan era than in Lebron's

The teams have been FAR more evenly matched in Lebron's era. Look at the standard deviation of winning percentages for Jordan's career and Lebron's. It's not even close.

Lebron has played his prime against 25%+ players for outside the United States. A truly globalized game. As late as 1997-1998, the NBA was less than 5% non US players!!

https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/532296/new-record-number-74-europeans-nba/

https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10

(scroll down for the chart)

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

(again, scroll down for the chart)

The thing is european/south american players didnt join the the nba at that time because they got higher pay playing in europe and because if they played in nba the could not play for their national teams.

Here is srs for the ec teams Lebrons teams played to get to the finals
11 1.01 4.83 6.53 = 4.12
12 2.39 2.60 2.26 = 2.4
13 -1.83 -.02 3.34 = 0.49
14 -.89 -1.58 3.63 = 0.39
15 -.40 2.54 4.75 = 2.3
16 .43 3.49 4.08 = 2.6
17 .03 3.65 2.25 = 1.97
18 1.18 7.29 3.23 = 3.9

ec teams Jordan played
89 7.95 3.62 6.24 = 5.93
90 -1.06 4.23 5.41 = 2.86
91 -.43 -.39 3.08 = .75
92 -3.94 3.67 5.34 = 1.69
93 -.67 6.19 5.87 = 3.8
96 1.46 2.24 5.4 = 3 7
97 1.77 5.52 5.56 = 4.28
98 1.88 2.45 6.25 = 3.52

This isnt really close outside of 2011
Jordan #1 #2 #5 #6 #7 #8

Only team who Lebron played who is better then any team the bulls faced in the finals are the warriors with Durant.

In 97-98 7.6% players were foreign.

In the last link the chart is for all foreign player who have played in the nba, not only who are currently in the nba.

I must have missed MJ's finals appearance in 1989 and 1990.

The 2014 Spurs, 2015 Warriors, 2016 Warriors are also better than any MJ finals team.

[migya]

The teams have been FAR more evenly matched in Lebron's era. Look at the standard deviation of winning percentages for Jordan's career and Lebron's. It's not even close.

Lebron has played his prime against 25%+ players for outside the United States. A truly globalized game. As late as 1997-1998, the NBA was less than 5% non US players!!

https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/532296/new-record-number-74-europeans-nba/

https://www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10

(scroll down for the chart)

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

(again, scroll down for the chart)

The thing is european/south american players didnt join the the nba at that time because they got higher pay playing in europe and because if they played in nba the could not play for their national teams.

Here is srs for the ec teams Lebrons teams played to get to the finals
11 1.01 4.83 6.53 = 4.12
12 2.39 2.60 2.26 = 2.4
13 -1.83 -.02 3.34 = 0.49
14 -.89 -1.58 3.63 = 0.39
15 -.40 2.54 4.75 = 2.3
16 .43 3.49 4.08 = 2.6
17 .03 3.65 2.25 = 1.97
18 1.18 7.29 3.23 = 3.9

ec teams Jordan played
89 7.95 3.62 6.24 = 5.93
90 -1.06 4.23 5.41 = 2.86
91 -.43 -.39 3.08 = .75
92 -3.94 3.67 5.34 = 1.69
93 -.67 6.19 5.87 = 3.8
96 1.46 2.24 5.4 = 3 7
97 1.77 5.52 5.56 = 4.28
98 1.88 2.45 6.25 = 3.52

This isnt really close outside of 2011
Jordan #1 #2 #5 #6 #7 #8

Only team who Lebron played who is better then any team the bulls faced in the finals are the warriors with Durant.

In 97-98 7.6% players were foreign.

In the last link the chart is for all foreign player who have played in the nba, not only who are currently in the nba.

I must have missed MJ's finals appearance in 1989 and 1990.

The 2014 Spurs, 2015 Warriors, 2016 Warriors are also better than any MJ finals team.

Not to sound ignorant or to seem like I'm mocking, but can you please explain how the 2014 Spurs were better than any Jordan finals teams? Even opponents in finals?

As for the Warriors; Breaking down that team, first and foremost, Curry and Klay carried a big offensive load. They had to score alot and almost every game. Barnes, Draymond and Bogut just weren't good scorers by a mile. Livingston had that niche of his posting up but the guys was, and never was, anything good in scouring. Iguodala was a defender and not much of a scorer. What did that Warriors team have offensively? Good coaching system and players that fit will enough around each other that it worked, like any other team in history. They didn't have that much more talent than other teams. That's the truth, it was organised well and worked but their performance in 2015 finals wasn't a surprise as they were young and inexperienced and weren't that greatly talented.