Official Scottie Barnes Thread

[ATLTimekeeper]

Scottie is doubtful with a sprained right thumb. He's probably out for a week.

I still get pain in a thumb I sprained 15 years ago. Hopefully he's shut down and red shoelaced for two weeks.

[DG88]

Scottie is doubtful with a sprained right thumb. He's probably out for a week.

I still get pain in a thumb I sprained 15 years ago. Hopefully he's shut down and red shoelaced for two weeks.

I remember getting thumb sprains from catching baseball's straight when I was a kid. They hurt so much, but put it in a splint and ice it and it's good as new in a week.

[brownbobcat]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/scottie-barnes/

538 posted their projection for Scottie Barnes on October the 11th at the end of preseason. The highlights:

They expected his value to the team to be the equivalent of a 75M/5 player.
With a .8 predicted WAR for this year climbing to an average WAR of close to +5 through his second contract.
Closest similar player projections: Thaddeus Young, Jaylen Brown, Josh Jackson.

They predicted the valued of the top 5 rookies at:
1) Cade - 108M/5, Top War = 6.6
2) Suggs - 79M/5, Top War = 4.8
3) Barnes - 75M/5, Top War = 5
4) Green - 74 M/5, Top War = 5.6
5) Mobley - 68 M/5, Top War = 4.3

How far off do you think they got it?

How long until they rerun the numbers and update their projection?

Surprised they ranked Mobley so low, he was always an analytics darling - the criticism was always about floating during certain games.

[maternal85]

I want to apologize to Masai and Bobby for doubting them on draft night. Barnes is the real deal and I am happy that I am eating crow everyday.

While I still believe Suggs will become a good player down the road, Barnes is just on another level.

Just curious, why did you doubt them ? Why did you think ESPN internet scouts would be more accurate ?

[mulamutti]

I think we're all getting ahead of ourselves, but only just a little bit. Honestly, its Scottie's fault cuz of how amazing he's played so far. But I think it would benefit him for everyone to be a little patient. Let him work on aspects of his game; I think he should continue being off-ball initiator but throwing in some chances at being the primary PG on plays here and there.

The raptors traditionally don't allow players to try things in live games during the season. So you may not see Scottie Barnes dramatically do more and more new things, and that's probably good for him. He can focus and improve on things he's already good at this season: Post game, put backs, hustle plays, little mid-range and as much play making as possible. What's crazy is I think we would have been ecstatic if it took him 1-2 years to ramp up to his current level!! So we shouldn't be crazy and put additional expectations on him. Let him take 1-2 years to develop, he's probably gonna be an all-star by then.

Scottie is already a natural passer, so that's not the focus of development right now. As Nick has been saying, he has show aggression and confidence in his shot, or defenders will sag off and play him to pass all the time. So the passing lanes will be blocked.

When Scottie's shot finally gets there, THEN he can start setting up others in the half-court. Nothing is more important right now for the Raptors than getting Scottie to that point. OG is pretty clearly not "that guy", so developing him further has to take second place.

While I agree with supporting Scottie's ascendancy to the primary star on this team, it should not be at the cost of OG's development. While OG may not have a lot of the natural abilities of Scottie, he's improved year after year, adding elite skillsets. He already elite defensively and he's shown promise in overpowering great defenders and creating his own shot this year. We're always looking to form super teams with the likes of Kawhi+PG or Butler+Adebayo+Lowry or KD+Harden, etc. We have our own poor man's version of a super team in having multiple go-to 2-way players in Siakam+OG+Scottie. It is going to be scary when they figure out how to play together as 3 stars, and not as a single primary. FVV will be our glue guy in that system as well, and an almost-star in his own right. IMO they can be 2nd tier contenders as soon as next year, if we get the right pieces to complement the 5 person elite core that we have in FVV, SB, PS, OG, GTJ (3 of whom are champions!).

Edited to "2nd tier contenders" so as not to trigger certain people.

[TheRaptor!]

IMO they can be contenders as soon as next year, if we get the right pieces to complement the 5 person elite core that we have in FVV, SB, PS, OG, GTJ (3 of whom are champions!).

No, I dont think you remember what a contender looks like:

Lowry/DGreen/Kawhi/Siakam/Gasol
FVV/Powell/OG/Ibaka

vs

FVV/Barnes/OG/Siakam/Star
GTJ/Yuta

Its not even close.

[HumbleRen]

IMO they can be contenders as soon as next year, if we get the right pieces to complement the 5 person elite core that we have in FVV, SB, PS, OG, GTJ (3 of whom are champions!).

No, I dont think you remember what a contender looks like:

Lowry/DGreen/Kawhi/Siakam/Gasol
FVV/Powell/OG/Ibaka

vs

FVV/Barnes/OG/Siakam/Star
GTJ/Yuta

Its not even close.

That Raptors team is already underrated lol. We might go our entire life time without seeing a Raptors team as good as that iteration.

[DelAbbot]

IMO they can be contenders as soon as next year, if we get the right pieces to complement the 5 person elite core that we have in FVV, SB, PS, OG, GTJ (3 of whom are champions!).

No, I dont think you remember what a contender looks like:

Lowry/DGreen/Kawhi/Siakam/Gasol
FVV/Powell/OG/Ibaka

vs

FVV/Barnes/OG/Siakam/Star
GTJ/Yuta

Its not even close.

That Raptors team is already underrated lol. We might go our entire life time without seeing a Raptors team as good as that iteration.

That bench FVV/Powell/OG/Ibaka would beat our current starting lineup if not for Scottie Barnes

[vulture]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Hero_Panda]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Tank the season. Trade everyone but Barnes, Banton and OG for draft picks and salary dump.

[HumbleRen]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Damn, usually means the swelling or pain got worse overnight

[mulamutti]

Once you win a championship, people's perception of those players are wayyyyyyy increased. If lowry didn't win that championship, we would've still be whining about how he falls short in the playoffs, or some other complaint. This board were asking for Ibaka to be traded, disappointed with hiring Nick Nurse, even whining about trading derozan.

I would say the Raptors can be more of a mid- tier contender (e.g. Jazz or trailblazers) as early as 1-2 years, and one or 2 pieces away from being top end contenders. Also the talent is somewhat comparable to the 2019 team (talent and potential only, not playoff experience)

Lowry > FVV (but that gap is on a decreasing trend given FVV's fast development into a tone-setting primary PG). You forget how many sub-Lowry performances lowry had throughout his playoff career. FVV is arguably more clutch in big games than Lowry.
GTJ >= Powell
Kawhi...well you got me on that one. But we can slot Barnes in here for this comparison.
Siakam = Siakam
Gasol = we legitimately need a Gasol replacement. We need a defensive, reasonably passing big (not necessarily with Gasol's resume). We can probably get that over the next couple of years from Europe or through some trade.
OG >> Danny green
Precious < Ibaka (but can develop roughly into an Ibaka-type impact player over the next 2 years)
Delano + Svi > Mccaw + Lin
Boucher = Boucher

[TheRaptor!]

Once you win a championship, people's perception of those players are wayyyyyyy increased. If lowry didn't win that championship, we would've still be whining about how he falls short in the playoffs, or some other complaint. This board were asking for Ibaka to be traded, disappointed with hiring Nick Nurse, even whining about trading derozan.

I would say the Raptors can be more of a mid- tier contender (e.g. Jazz or trailblazers) as early as 1-2 years, and one or 2 pieces away from being top end contenders. Also the talent is somewhat comparable to the 2019 team (talent and potential only, not playoff experience)

Lowry > FVV (but that gap is on a decreasing trend given FVV's fast development into a tone-setting primary PG). You forget how many sub-Lowry performances lowry had throughout his playoff career. FVV is arguably more clutch in big games than Lowry.
GTJ >= Powell
Kawhi...well you got me on that one. But we can slot Barnes in here for this comparison.
Siakam = Siakam
Gasol = we legitimately need a Gasol replacement. We need a defensive, reasonably passing big (not necessarily with Gasol's resume). We can probably get that over the next couple of years from Europe or through some trade.
OG >> Danny green
Precious < Ibaka (but can develop roughly into an Ibaka-type impact player over the next 2 years)
Delano + Svi > Mccaw + Lin
Boucher = Boucher

Sir...pass me whatever you're smoking.

Lowry was a multiple time all star....and future HOFer
Powell is still better than GTJ, we got him for his potential
Kawhi, the HOFer and multiple finals MVO will destroy rookie/sophmore Barnes and its not even close
Gasol is a HOFer

Our bench is a joke compared to our 2019 championship team. Ibaka is better than any of our bigs and had to play off the bench just stop.

We are so far away from being a contender

[mulamutti]

Once you win a championship, people's perception of those players are wayyyyyyy increased. If lowry didn't win that championship, we would've still be whining about how he falls short in the playoffs, or some other complaint. This board were asking for Ibaka to be traded, disappointed with hiring Nick Nurse, even whining about trading derozan.

I would say the Raptors can be more of a mid- tier contender (e.g. Jazz or trailblazers) as early as 1-2 years, and one or 2 pieces away from being top end contenders. Also the talent is somewhat comparable to the 2019 team (talent and potential only, not playoff experience)

Lowry > FVV (but that gap is on a decreasing trend given FVV's fast development into a tone-setting primary PG). You forget how many sub-Lowry performances lowry had throughout his playoff career. FVV is arguably more clutch in big games than Lowry.
GTJ >= Powell
Kawhi...well you got me on that one. But we can slot Barnes in here for this comparison.
Siakam = Siakam
Gasol = we legitimately need a Gasol replacement. We need a defensive, reasonably passing big (not necessarily with Gasol's resume). We can probably get that over the next couple of years from Europe or through some trade.
OG >> Danny green
Precious < Ibaka (but can develop roughly into an Ibaka-type impact player over the next 2 years)
Delano + Svi > Mccaw + Lin
Boucher = Boucher

Sir...pass me whatever you're smoking.

Lowry was a multiple time all star....and future HOFer
Powell is still better than GTJ, we got him for his potential
Kawhi, the HOFer and multiple finals MVO will destroy rookie/sophmore Barnes and its not even close
Gasol is a HOFer

Our bench is a joke compared to our 2019 championship team. Ibaka is better than any of our bigs and had to play off the bench just stop.

We are so far away from being a contender

Relax, i'm only talking about potential to being 2nd tier contenders. I didn't say they were contenders now.

[TheFutureMM]

Even if Scottie has to miss a couple games this week - it's not really a big deal for the ROY race. Games played, once you get past 60, doesn't really seem to matter all that much for the award. Once you pass a threshold, it's all about, did you perform.

[GordanFreeman]

While I actually changed my opinion on Barnes vs Suggs like days (if not hours) after the draft, I've been blown away by his play so far.

So glad to have him on our team.

You should have changed it days before the draft. Better late than never though, so I give you credit for that.

90% of the ppl here probably wanted Suggs. There were like 2 posters who were pro Barnes.

[HumbleRen]

Once you win a championship, people's perception of those players are wayyyyyyy increased. If lowry didn't win that championship, we would've still be whining about how he falls short in the playoffs, or some other complaint. This board were asking for Ibaka to be traded, disappointed with hiring Nick Nurse, even whining about trading derozan.

I would say the Raptors can be more of a mid- tier contender (e.g. Jazz or trailblazers) as early as 1-2 years, and one or 2 pieces away from being top end contenders. Also the talent is somewhat comparable to the 2019 team (talent and potential only, not playoff experience)

Lowry > FVV (but that gap is on a decreasing trend given FVV's fast development into a tone-setting primary PG). You forget how many sub-Lowry performances lowry had throughout his playoff career. FVV is arguably more clutch in big games than Lowry.
GTJ >= Powell
Kawhi...well you got me on that one. But we can slot Barnes in here for this comparison.
Siakam = Siakam
Gasol = we legitimately need a Gasol replacement. We need a defensive, reasonably passing big (not necessarily with Gasol's resume). We can probably get that over the next couple of years from Europe or through some trade.
OG >> Danny green
Precious < Ibaka (but can develop roughly into an Ibaka-type impact player over the next 2 years)
Delano + Svi > Mccaw + Lin
Boucher = Boucher

Sir...pass me whatever you're smoking.

Lowry was a multiple time all star....and future HOFer
Powell is still better than GTJ, we got him for his potential
Kawhi, the HOFer and multiple finals MVO will destroy rookie/sophmore Barnes and its not even close
Gasol is a HOFer

Our bench is a joke compared to our 2019 championship team. Ibaka is better than any of our bigs and had to play off the bench just stop.

We are so far away from being a contender

[Madhouse]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

This could take a couple of weeks. Not sure why he is listed as doubtful. Should rest for a while.

[Rebel INS]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/scottie-barnes/

538 posted their projection for Scottie Barnes on October the 11th at the end of preseason. The highlights:

They expected his value to the team to be the equivalent of a 75M/5 player.
With a .8 predicted WAR for this year climbing to an average WAR of close to +5 through his second contract.
Closest similar player projections: Thaddeus Young, Jaylen Brown, Josh Jackson.

They predicted the valued of the top 5 rookies at:
1) Cade - 108M/5, Top War = 6.6
2) Suggs - 79M/5, Top War = 4.8
3) Barnes - 75M/5, Top War = 5
4) Green - 74 M/5, Top War = 5.6
5) Mobley - 68 M/5, Top War = 4.3

How far off do you think they got it?

How long until they rerun the numbers and update their projection?

Given that Day 1 Barnes seems like he's already at where even the optimists among us hoped he'd be by the end of yr 3 when he was due for an extension, 75m/5 is not looking realistic at all.

Yeah, yeah its 6 games but for him to end up there in 3 years, he'd have to show no progression at all on his 3pt shot over that time span and look like a likely non-shooter for rest of his career, and basically plateau or regress on what he's already shown with his touch, rim attacking and shot inside 10 feet to the point where its no longer realistic to project him as a guy who attracts double teams which open up his half court facilitator point-forward skills

At this point, I think it's more unrealistic to project that sort of regression/plateau for a high iq/high intangible/high work ethic prospect, than to project him being a league average 3 pt shooter and 20+ppg scorer with all-defensive team caliber 2 way production by 2023. For a 22-23 year old upside athlete prospect? That's a 33m/yr rookie max extension

Sure 6 games is only 6 games, but aside from just hitting midrange shots we didn't expect he'd be hitting, Scottie's shown a level of touch and feel for scoring on a consistent play in and play out basis that completely changes how you project him moving forward. Its the difference between projecting a guy like OG to develop a 'feel' for scoring and creating shots and a 'natural'

[TheRealDeal]

Scottie is doubtful with a sprained right thumb. He's probably out for a week.

I still get pain in a thumb I sprained 15 years ago. Hopefully he's shut down and red shoelaced for two weeks.

That sucks, but you can’t really compare Scottie Barnes to normal humans. He’s built different