2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation

[Ghost of Kleine]

Spoiler:

Well declining Jalen's option seems to imply he won't play at all (or very much) for the rest of the season. He's gotta be trade bait, after all, he's a $4.5M expiring contract. Come December 14th, McGee, Nadar, Payton, and Kaminsky can all be included in trades. They are expiring contracts too.

Something is brewing and it's gonna be about 90 days before we hear anything.

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

Thing is, who would that 4.5 million player be though? Seems like a lateral and ultimately useless move to decline salary, just to take equivalent salary back again. And then incur the same tax penalties as if you hadn't declined his option anyways. Also to be fair, Smith got a really raw deal in all of this, As he just didn't get any legitimate playing time and real opportunities for development. In the few small opportunities he did actually get (summer league) for example, He averaged a double/ double and made all summer league first team. And in the few sparse minutes that he actually finally got to play with the team, he showed solid promise. So it's unfair to imply that he couldn't contribute without giving him a reasonable chance to show otherwise.

I can understand the prioritization of a veteran with more experience though. But again, not sure who that'd be at 4.5 million???

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
Sources: Phoenix is declining center Jalen Smith’s third-year rookie option ($4.7M), making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 9.5 points and 8 rebounds in four preseason games after posting 16.25 PPG/12.5 RPG in summer league.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Again, albeit the summer league and the preseason ( this being his first, since he didn't get one nor a summer league last year dur to Covid) he on a small sample size HAS SHOWN the ability to contribute WHEN he actually gets some minutes. So in fairness, it's no more fair to prognosticate that he can't be useful or contribute any more than for me to assume he could offer significant impact this soon. It's simply too early to make any accurate assertions aside from reducing luxury tax penalties.

However, IF they can perhaps combine Crowder or Saric and another small piece or pick for an actual upgrade, Maybe one of Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk, or perhaps even a Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theiss? Then they'll definitely get a mild pass from me on this potential wasted draft asset.

[King4Day]

Classy of the Suns org to chip in for Mr ORNG's gofundme for his Dad

https://gofund.me/dbd2a6bd

[King4Day]

Spoiler:

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

Thing is, who would that 4.5 million player be though? Seems like a lateral and ultimately useless move to decline salary, just to take equivalent salary back again. And then incur the same tax penalties as if you hadn't declined his option anyways. Also to be fair, Smith got a really raw deal in all of this, As he just didn't get any legitimate playing time and real opportunities for development. In the few small opportunities he did actually get (summer league) for example, He averaged a double/ double and made all summer league first team. And in the few sparse minutes that he actually finally got to play with the team, he showed solid promise. So it's unfair to imply that he couldn't contribute without giving him a reasonable chance to show otherwise.

I can understand the prioritization of a veteran with more experience though. But again, not sure who that'd be at 4.5 million???

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
Sources: Phoenix is declining center Jalen Smith’s third-year rookie option ($4.7M), making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 9.5 points and 8 rebounds in four preseason games after posting 16.25 PPG/12.5 RPG in summer league.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Again, albeit the summer league and the preseason ( this being his first, since he didn't get one nor a summer league last year dur to Covid) he on a small sample size HAS SHOWN the ability to contribute WHEN he actually gets some minutes. So in fairness, it's no more fair to prognosticate that he can't be useful or contribute any more than for me to assume he could offer significant impact this soon. It's simply too early to make any accurate assertions aside from reducing luxury tax penalties.

However, IF they can perhaps combine Crowder or Saric and another small piece or pick for an actual upgrade, Maybe one of Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk, or perhaps even a Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theiss? Then they'll definitely get a mild pass from me on this potential wasted draft asset.

That 'asset' will end up being extending DA and/or CamJo

[lilfishi22]

Spoiler:

It's possible someone wants him for cap relief, but that would imply we are taking on long term salary, or at least salary into next year, which I think we only do if we trade a major player, which I think is unlikely.

Those guys don't have much value. POSSIBLY if a team needs a big, McGee or a PG, Payton, but I doubt we trade either without getting one back, particularly McGee after convincing him to come to Phx.

But expiring minimums or near minimums don't do much in a trade. It's not like we can trade out 4-5 players..no team has that many roster spots unless they send a similar # of players back.

We likely declined because he saves us a lot more money next year than his salary due to tax savings. We are not going to trade expirings for more salary next year.

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

Thing is, who would that 4.5 million player be though? Seems like a lateral and ultimately useless move to decline salary, just to take equivalent salary back again. And then incur the same tax penalties as if you hadn't declined his option anyways. Also to be fair, Smith got a really raw deal in all of this, As he just didn't get any legitimate playing time and real opportunities for development. In the few small opportunities he did actually get (summer league) for example, He averaged a double/ double and made all summer league first team. And in the few sparse minutes that he actually finally got to play with the team, he showed solid promise. So it's unfair to imply that he couldn't contribute without giving him a reasonable chance to show otherwise.

I can understand the prioritization of a veteran with more experience though. But again, not sure who that'd be at 4.5 million???

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
Sources: Phoenix is declining center Jalen Smith’s third-year rookie option ($4.7M), making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 9.5 points and 8 rebounds in four preseason games after posting 16.25 PPG/12.5 RPG in summer league.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Again, albeit the summer league and the preseason ( this being his first, since he didn't get one nor a summer league last year dur to Covid) he on a small sample size HAS SHOWN the ability to contribute WHEN he actually gets some minutes. So in fairness, it's no more fair to prognosticate that he can't be useful or contribute any more than for me to assume he could offer significant impact this soon. It's simply too early to make any accurate assertions aside from reducing luxury tax penalties.

However, IF they can perhaps combine Crowder or Saric and another small piece or pick for an actual upgrade, Maybe one of Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk, or perhaps even a Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theiss? Then they'll definitely get a mild pass from me on this potential wasted draft asset.

[lilfishi22]

Spoiler:

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

Thing is, who would that 4.5 million player be though? Seems like a lateral and ultimately useless move to decline salary, just to take equivalent salary back again. And then incur the same tax penalties as if you hadn't declined his option anyways. Also to be fair, Smith got a really raw deal in all of this, As he just didn't get any legitimate playing time and real opportunities for development. In the few small opportunities he did actually get (summer league) for example, He averaged a double/ double and made all summer league first team. And in the few sparse minutes that he actually finally got to play with the team, he showed solid promise. So it's unfair to imply that he couldn't contribute without giving him a reasonable chance to show otherwise.

I can understand the prioritization of a veteran with more experience though. But again, not sure who that'd be at 4.5 million???

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
Sources: Phoenix is declining center Jalen Smith’s third-year rookie option ($4.7M), making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 9.5 points and 8 rebounds in four preseason games after posting 16.25 PPG/12.5 RPG in summer league.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Again, albeit the summer league and the preseason ( this being his first, since he didn't get one nor a summer league last year dur to Covid) he on a small sample size HAS SHOWN the ability to contribute WHEN he actually gets some minutes. So in fairness, it's no more fair to prognosticate that he can't be useful or contribute any more than for me to assume he could offer significant impact this soon. It's simply too early to make any accurate assertions aside from reducing luxury tax penalties.

However, IF they can perhaps combine Crowder or Saric and another small piece or pick for an actual upgrade, Maybe one of Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk, or perhaps even a Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theiss? Then they'll definitely get a mild pass from me on this potential wasted draft asset.

That 'asset' will end up being extending DA and/or CamJo

That sounds more likely

[nevetsov]

Gotta be a money move for next season, pure and simple. I bet there were a bunch of guys that weren't all summer league first team like Jalen, that did get their options picked up. In a perfect world you don't turn down young guys who show signs in limited minutes (especially bigs).

At least we didn't draft Haliburton and decline his third year deal, can you imagine.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Spoiler:

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

Thing is, who would that 4.5 million player be though? Seems like a lateral and ultimately useless move to decline salary, just to take equivalent salary back again. And then incur the same tax penalties as if you hadn't declined his option anyways. Also to be fair, Smith got a really raw deal in all of this, As he just didn't get any legitimate playing time and real opportunities for development. In the few small opportunities he did actually get (summer league) for example, He averaged a double/ double and made all summer league first team. And in the few sparse minutes that he actually finally got to play with the team, he showed solid promise. So it's unfair to imply that he couldn't contribute without giving him a reasonable chance to show otherwise.

I can understand the prioritization of a veteran with more experience though. But again, not sure who that'd be at 4.5 million???

Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) Tweeted:
Sources: Phoenix is declining center Jalen Smith’s third-year rookie option ($4.7M), making him an unrestricted free agent in 2022. The 6-foot-10 big man averaged 9.5 points and 8 rebounds in four preseason games after posting 16.25 PPG/12.5 RPG in summer league.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Again, albeit the summer league and the preseason ( this being his first, since he didn't get one nor a summer league last year dur to Covid) he on a small sample size HAS SHOWN the ability to contribute WHEN he actually gets some minutes. So in fairness, it's no more fair to prognosticate that he can't be useful or contribute any more than for me to assume he could offer significant impact this soon. It's simply too early to make any accurate assertions aside from reducing luxury tax penalties.

However, IF they can perhaps combine Crowder or Saric and another small piece or pick for an actual upgrade, Maybe one of Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Kelly Olynyk, or perhaps even a Tristan Thompson or Daniel Theiss? Then they'll definitely get a mild pass from me on this potential wasted draft asset.

That 'asset' will end up being extending DA and/or CamJo

That's encouraging! (If it actually happens).
Still sucks to know that our owner is such a penny pinching cheapskate that we have to surrender players/ depth just to be able to afford resigning our own players. And lose further depth whilst every other team without a cheap/ poor owner is loading up for a deep run. It's just really lame all around!

[Ghost of Kleine]

Evan Sidery (@esidery) Tweeted:
The Suns drafted Jalen Smith No. 10 overall 348 days ago. Less than a year later, they’re pulling the plug on further development.

Phoenix whiffed on potentially their last chance of collecting a lottery talent for years to come (via @basketbllnews): https://t.co/P0di5Vxbmw

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Ghost of Kleine]

Spoiler:

[spoiler]

I think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute. I don't know much about the negotiation that went into the Shamet deal but that $11m sort of came out of nowhere so it doesn't feel to me like we were adamant about not taking on future salaries in light of our forthcoming tax situation. If we were super worried and adamant about not taking on future salaries, we could have waited the season and revaluated next off season whether to commit to a long term deal with Shamet.

I think it's really just as simple as we didn't want to spend that five million bucks on a guy that wasn't likely to contribute.

think it's possible we could take on a slightly longer term contract for a player that is actually useful and can contribute

[/spoiler]

It's a lateral move only as far as it might be a big for a big but that's really not considering how little Smith is likely to contribute in the post season. It could just be a vet min guy or two. A 10 year vet min these days are like $2.6m so that's already half of Smith's salary.

We don't have time or the opportunities to figure out whether a guy is going to contribute or not. The fact that they are declining his deal tells me enough about what they've seen in practice which is where the majority of player development takes place. Maybe he has potential still and maybe he could still turn into a contributor but based on the decision they've made, it's clear he hasn't even passed that practice threshold. We're not the 19-win team of yesteryears where we have all the playing time in the world to throw at guys and to hope and pray that the guys we've drafted turns into something. The stakes are very different. FWIW players, especially young guys who don't catch on right away with a team usually get a raw deal. Smith's situation is certainly not uncommon in this cut throat sport.

Also I don't think a trade would be just Smith for a player, he doesn't have nearly enough value for that. It'll likely have to be packaged up with a guy like Crowder or someone

Yeah! I get your argument for veteran experience IF we're legitimately going "all in". To me personally, I take issue with not trading the pick once we decided that we didn't have the " time" to develop youth anymore. If we anticipated this, Then why hold onto the pick instead of trading it? This was an incredible waste of what could be our last lottery prospect in quite a long time! IF we determined that we were all in, Then why not move his contract or the pick for a veteran then instead of wasting a whole year and also wasting a draft asset ( tradable asset). In sitting him and not really playing him, We basically tanked any percieved value that might of had in addition to wasting that positional slot on a veteran contributor that might've made the difference for us! So once we obtained Paul and Crowder, and then made our run, Why didn't we simply choose to move him at the end of last season for like anything???

For me, The jury is out on this until I see who they creatively look to replace him with. I would prefer ( and expect them to look at combining his expiring 4.5 million with one of Ctowder or Nader, Hutchinson)+ a first ( IF NECESSARY) etc. For any of:

Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Daniel Theiss, Kelly Olynyk, Tristan Thompson, Montrez Harrell?

Than I can understand/ accept this a bit more. As it would prove our intent to go for it! But if it's just for the purpose of cutting cost in order to resign players that we've already expected to resign anyways, Then this was a wasted asset. And again, what would've before not playing Smith offered greater trade value towards a veteran addition for our run last season. Lastly, IF we didn't execute poor judgment in overpaying Shamet, Then none of this would be an issue. The suns just need to make things right by trading for an impact veteran using Smith's contract so we can bolster our depth in this narrow window of contention!

[Mulhollanddrive]

Sarver's on the hook for $50m in luxury tax if they max Ayton and kept everyone so there will be a cull.

Cutting Smith, Saric, Crowder from the books next season (and replaced by minimums) gets him down to paying around $12m instead so we can see the difference.

I can imagine Sarver asking Jones why a guy not in the rotation is going to cost him $15m in cash next year (salary + tax) and Jones gives him the W realising there's bigger battles to win.

[SideSwipe]

PHX now has $24M in expiring contracts and young trade assets to attach to them- One of Mikal or Cam, one of those expiring's is a very useful DA. That is a setup for a serious All-Star potentially coming back. KAT is always a possibility...who else?

[bwgood77]

Over-thinking 101

Smith just isn’t worth 4+ mill a yr… to anybody. Virtually untradable with a that guarantee. Sure, mistake 1 was drafting him over Halliburton or 3-4 others.

No point in beating that to death, but also no point to chase bad money with good. Who knows, he could ink up a min deal next yr here… or somewhere… or overseas. And he is more valuable in trade land as an expiring.

Nothing to see here folks, keep moving

Every other team would have picked it up. It's less than a year after the draft and a top 10 pick. I get why we didn't due to the luxury tax and it being a savings of more like $15 million, but no other guy on a rookie contract didn't get his option picked up for 3rd or 4th year except Jarrett Culver (4th year) and that was mainly because Memphis is loaded at the guard spots with Ja, Melton, Bane, Brooks, Tyus Jones, and GoK's favorite, Sam Merrill.

Heck, Ty Jerome's 4th year option at $4.22 million was picked up and he has showed diddly squat, and OKC has Giddey, Shai, Theo Maledon, Tre Mann and another rookie at guard.

If you are high enough on a guy to take him at #10, to give up on him in less than a year after having no rookie training camp, summer league, etc, injury and COVID. Being a contender it makes sense he didn't play, I understand people thinking he should have gotten in before Kaminsky after Saric went down, but you don't play a rookie suddenly in the playoffs when you haven't needed him all year. Kaminsky also has a lot of experience with the team.

Jalen Smith is likely to get picked up by someone next summer. Probably OKC will pay him given they probably have plenty of money to do so...or maybe someone like Boston wanting more depth up front.

[lilfishi22]

Yeah! I get your argument for veteran experience IF we're legitimately going "all in". To me personally, I take issue with not trading the pick once we decided that we didn't have the " time" to develop youth anymore. If we anticipated this, Then why hold onto the pick instead of trading it? This was an incredible waste of what could be our last lottery prospect in quite a long time! IF we determined that we were all in, Then why not move his contract or the pick for a veteran then instead of wasting a whole year and also wasting a draft asset ( tradable asset). In sitting him and not really playing him, We basically tanked any percieved value that might of had in addition to wasting that positional slot on a veteran contributor that might've made the difference for us! So once we obtained Paul and Crowder, and then made our run, Why didn't we simply choose to move him at the end of last season for like anything???
For me, The jury is out on this until I see who they creatively look to replace him with. I would prefer ( and expect them to look at combining his expiring 4.5 million with one of Ctowder or Nader, Hutchinson)+ a first ( IF NECESSARY) etc. For any of:

Jerami Grant, Christian Wood, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Daniel Theiss, Kelly Olynyk, Tristan Thompson, Montrez Harrell?

Than I can understand/ accept this a bit more. As it would prove our intent to go for it! But if it's just for the purpose of cutting cost in order to resign players that we've already expected to resign anyways, Then this was a wasted asset. And again, what would've before not playing Smith offered greater trade value towards a veteran addition for our run last season. Lastly, IF we didn't execute poor judgment in overpaying Shamet, Then none of this would be an issue. The suns just need to make things right by trading for an impact veteran using Smith's contract so we can bolster our depth in this narrow window of contention!

I think it's pretty obvious that we weren't really anticipating to go all in at that point because we haven't even made the playoffs yet and that we drafted Smith because we legitimately thought he would be a contributor in perhaps a 10-15mpg capacity on a maybe lower seed playoff team. Had everything they envisioned came to reality we would have a big man who could defend, rebound and shoot 3's for us locked into a relatively cap friendly contract for another two seasons (+ option to extend further). But when we drafted Smith we very likely did not anticipate we would be in that Finals that very same season and bringing forward our championship window (and aspirations) significantly closer. The Covid, injuries and the shortened season certainly didn't help with his development and opportunities but it is what it is. It was a crap hand that he was dealt.

If we were still a middle of the pack playoff/play-in team, I think we may have a bit more patience but adding CP3 and getting into the Finals meant we now have much higher aspirations and at the same time, much lower margin for error. Unfortunately carrying deadweight on a team with title aspirations just doesn't go together and we had to make a decision. And it's the reason why we put Jalen on the block or were talking to teams about trade packages including Jalen this past offseason. If we had the benefit of hindsight, I think we would've likely sold off that pick for a vet but coming off a 34-39 season, it would have been irresponsible to go "all in" at that point. Keep in mind, teams that just miss playoffs after being in the absolutely bottom of the NBA wins column for the better part of the past decade do not suddenly become a Finals team the following season.

FWIW if we're in the self reflection discussion, the poor judgement would have been taking Smith in the first place. You're obviously closer to the draft than myself but I think you would agree that Smith probably wasn't your first choice at #10.

[lilfishi22]

Over-thinking 101

Smith just isn’t worth 4+ mill a yr… to anybody. Virtually untradable with a that guarantee. Sure, mistake 1 was drafting him over Halliburton or 3-4 others.

No point in beating that to death, but also no point to chase bad money with good. Who knows, he could ink up a min deal next yr here… or somewhere… or overseas. And he is more valuable in trade land as an expiring.

Nothing to see here folks, keep moving

Every other team would have picked it up. It's less than a year after the draft and a top 10 pick. I get why we didn't due to the luxury tax and it being a savings of more like $15 million, but no other guy on a rookie contract didn't get his option picked up for 3rd or 4th year except Jarrett Culver (4th year) and that was mainly because Memphis is loaded at the guard spots with Ja, Melton, Bane, Brooks, Tyus Jones, and GoK's favorite, Sam Merrill.

Heck, Ty Jerome's 4th year option at $4.22 million was picked up and he has showed diddly squat, and OKC has Giddey, Shai, Theo Maledon, Tre Mann and another rookie at guard.

If you are high enough on a guy to take him at #10, to give up on him in less than a year after having no rookie training camp, summer league, etc, injury and COVID. Being a contender it makes sense he didn't play, I understand people thinking he should have gotten in before Kaminsky after Saric went down, but you don't play a rookie suddenly in the playoffs when you haven't needed him all year. Kaminsky also has a lot of experience with the team.

Jalen Smith is likely to get picked up by someone next summer. Probably OKC will pay him given they probably have plenty of money to do so...or maybe someone like Boston wanting more depth up front.

I would've liked us to have picked up his option but I totally understand why they didn't. FWIW OKC has nothing but time and a salary floor to reach (which I don't think they even reached) so picking up the option of the mistakes of our past is no biggie. Ultimately, it comes down to do we think spending $5m on a him was a good use of resources (salary cap/luxury tax/roster spot) or could you get near 90% of what Jalen Smith gives you for the vet minimum? Frank is right to keep it simple, Smith just wasn't worth the luxury tax to keep on the roster nor made sense to double down on the draft mistake.

[nevetsov]

I can imagine Sarver asking Jones why a guy not in the rotation is going to cost him $15m in cash next year (salary + tax) and Jones gives him the W realising there's bigger battles to win.

You could make the argument that Shamet's near $10m deal would be the deal that pushes them into the tax, being the most recent one signed. Will Shamet be worth the ~$25m (salary plus tax) it will cost Sarver? That's going to be a tougher pill to swallow given we pulled the trigger On that deal without him even playing a game in a Suns uni (a year before we had to).

[bwgood77]

I would've liked us to have picked up his option but I totally understand why they didn't. FWIW OKC has nothing but time and a salary floor to reach (which I don't think they even reached) so picking up the option of the mistakes of our past is no biggie. Ultimately, it comes down to do we think spending $5m on a him was a good use of resources (salary cap/luxury tax/roster spot) or could you get near 90% of what Jalen Smith gives you for the vet minimum? Frank is right to keep it simple, Smith just wasn't worth the luxury tax to keep on the roster nor made sense to double down on the draft mistake.

My response was to the comment "Jalen wasn't worth 4 million + to anybody." I was the one who mentioned it being understandable with the luxury tax.

But it's rare. I understand OKC's predicament, but in general it's just rare not to pick up rookie contract options....particularly lotto pick ones, and particularly after 1 year of play.

I think any other team picks it up and I think we even pick it up if we are not in the tax, or were not that near it.

I don't think it's as simple as not being worth $4+ million as stated.

[bwgood77]

I can imagine Sarver asking Jones why a guy not in the rotation is going to cost him $15m in cash next year (salary + tax) and Jones gives him the W realising there's bigger battles to win.

You could make the argument that Shamet's near $10m deal would be the deal that pushes them into the tax, being the most recent one signed. Will Shamet be worth the ~$25m (salary plus tax) it will cost Sarver? That's going to be a tougher pill to swallow given we pulled the trigger On that deal without him even playing a game in a Suns uni (a year before we had to).

Yeah, that contract, if you consider it being the last one, knowing we would re-sign Ayton (assuming we do), then it really cost us more than the $10.75 million a year or whatever for him. I never in a million years thought he would have gotten a contract bigger per year than Crowder and Saric. He got a little less per year than Oubre did from Charlotte or TJ Warren did from us.

[Frank Lee]

Over-thinking 101

Smith just isn’t worth 4+ mill a yr… to anybody. Virtually untradable with a that guarantee. Sure, mistake 1 was drafting him over Halliburton or 3-4 others.

No point in beating that to death, but also no point to chase bad money with good. Who knows, he could ink up a min deal next yr here… or somewhere… or overseas. And he is more valuable in trade land as an expiring.

Nothing to see here folks, keep moving

Every other team would have picked it up. It's less than a year after the draft and a top 10 pick. I get why we didn't due to the luxury tax and it being a savings of more like $15 million, but no other guy on a rookie contract didn't get his option picked up for 3rd or 4th year except Jarrett Culver (4th year) and that was mainly because Memphis is loaded at the guard spots with Ja, Melton, Bane, Brooks, Tyus Jones, and GoK's favorite, Sam Merrill.

Heck, Ty Jerome's 4th year option at $4.22 million was picked up and he has showed diddly squat, and OKC has Giddey, Shai, Theo Maledon, Tre Mann and another rookie at guard.

If you are high enough on a guy to take him at #10, to give up on him in less than a year after having no rookie training camp, summer league, etc, injury and COVID. Being a contender it makes sense he didn't play, I understand people thinking he should have gotten in before Kaminsky after Saric went down, but you don't play a rookie suddenly in the playoffs when you haven't needed him all year. Kaminsky also has a lot of experience with the team.

Jalen Smith is likely to get picked up by someone next summer. Probably OKC will pay him given they probably have plenty of money to do so...or maybe someone like Boston wanting more depth up front.

May be just accept the guy isn’t very good. And you also make the assumption we wont resign him to a minimum deal.... if we do not trade him.

I’d say, odds favor a trade over resigning him. Would not be surprised if a deal has been agreed upon. If it falls through though, we then still have him and likely front runner to ink him to a more realistic deal, if James deems it so. It just makes sense on all fronts.

You think anyone is going to sign him for 4 mill?

[bwgood77]

Over-thinking 101

Smith just isn’t worth 4+ mill a yr… to anybody. Virtually untradable with a that guarantee. Sure, mistake 1 was drafting him over Halliburton or 3-4 others.

No point in beating that to death, but also no point to chase bad money with good. Who knows, he could ink up a min deal next yr here… or somewhere… or overseas. And he is more valuable in trade land as an expiring.

Nothing to see here folks, keep moving

Every other team would have picked it up. It's less than a year after the draft and a top 10 pick. I get why we didn't due to the luxury tax and it being a savings of more like $15 million, but no other guy on a rookie contract didn't get his option picked up for 3rd or 4th year except Jarrett Culver (4th year) and that was mainly because Memphis is loaded at the guard spots with Ja, Melton, Bane, Brooks, Tyus Jones, and GoK's favorite, Sam Merrill.

Heck, Ty Jerome's 4th year option at $4.22 million was picked up and he has showed diddly squat, and OKC has Giddey, Shai, Theo Maledon, Tre Mann and another rookie at guard.

If you are high enough on a guy to take him at #10, to give up on him in less than a year after having no rookie training camp, summer league, etc, injury and COVID. Being a contender it makes sense he didn't play, I understand people thinking he should have gotten in before Kaminsky after Saric went down, but you don't play a rookie suddenly in the playoffs when you haven't needed him all year. Kaminsky also has a lot of experience with the team.

Jalen Smith is likely to get picked up by someone next summer. Probably OKC will pay him given they probably have plenty of money to do so...or maybe someone like Boston wanting more depth up front.

May be just accept the guy isn’t very good. And you also make the assumption we wont resign him to a minimum deal.... if we do not trade him.

I’d say, odds favor a trade over resigning him. Would not be surprised if a deal has been agreed upon. If it falls through though, we then still have him and likely front runner to ink him to a more realistic deal, if James deems it so. It just makes sense on all fronts.

You think anyone is going to sign him for 4 mill?

Depends on how well he plays. He played reasonably well for his first decent minutes ever the other night. He only was 1-4 from the field but had 5 boards, a block and a steal in 9 minutes. And two of his shots I think came on the very same possession where he drove it inside and Markkanen or one of their bigs blocked him twice. I didn't think it was as bad as it sounds...hard to go against a 7 footer like that. I kind of liked the effort there.

Anyway, who knows if he will get paid that? But signing him to that as a FA is a little different than picking up an option and retaining rights to do it again and maybe have RFA rights.

I would say there is no real incentive for us to play him but I guess there is if we think he can help...because we could maybe use the help at times and because maybe it helps for trade value. Trade value is hard on an expiring....typically a team wanting a top 10 pick in his second year (which are very rarely up for trade) are not trading for it because it's an expiring and they want out of money. So they would likely rather we had picked it up. But they could hope to re-sign him. I am unsure if someone who trades for him can go over the cap hold amount of $4.7 million or whatever it is or those rights transfer with him...since the cap hold does, the max amount does.

So if a team traded for him because they like him and he played really well, someone might steal him because they could pay him more...which could dissuade a trade. I know I am probably overthinking it but I don't think he has all that much trade value and I don't see us making some big trade as some people seem to think.

I think we want to shed money now if anything. But Monty has the guys he really likes, like Saric and Shamet, and to a lesser extent, Crowder, so hard to shed to much more money...so in that respect if we needed to shed money, it also makes sense that he would be the one to not keep....but if we are truly expecting to save money that will leave us at 9 rotation guys and a bunch of minimums next year...with one of those guys being Saric.

[lilfishi22]

I would've liked us to have picked up his option but I totally understand why they didn't. FWIW OKC has nothing but time and a salary floor to reach (which I don't think they even reached) so picking up the option of the mistakes of our past is no biggie. Ultimately, it comes down to do we think spending $5m on a him was a good use of resources (salary cap/luxury tax/roster spot) or could you get near 90% of what Jalen Smith gives you for the vet minimum? Frank is right to keep it simple, Smith just wasn't worth the luxury tax to keep on the roster nor made sense to double down on the draft mistake.

My response was to the comment "Jalen wasn't worth 4 million + to anybody." I was the one who mentioned it being understandable with the luxury tax.

But it's rare. I understand OKC's predicament, but in general it's just rare not to pick up rookie contract options....particularly lotto pick ones, and particularly after 1 year of play.

I think any other team picks it up and I think we even pick it up if we are not in the tax, or were not that near it.

I don't think it's as simple as not being worth $4+ million as stated.

I think it is that simple. You could throw in the LT and roster spot as rationale but ultimately, he's not worth it.

Is there any other great reason to keep him past this season other than maybe to use him in a trade? Because I think if you ask the Zach Lowe question of whether you could get 85% of a player's production for the vet min or 1/3 of the price, the answer is probably yes? Could you get a Jon Henson or a Biyombo type on the minimum to give you 85% of what Smith has given us? Or if you had $4.6m, could you better use on someone like Trez, Thad Young or Ibaka type next off season?