10giz wrote:CptCrunch wrote:10giz wrote:I just watched every Evan Mobley play so far this year and wrote up a pretty detailed post in case anybody wants to read it
He's a very good prospect with great IQ, great defensive instincts, good mobility and good passing/vision. He absolutely has the tools to develop into a potential all start
His game right now looks good in the box score but after doing some digging, he is nowhere near as impactful as any article or analyst is saying. 
He has shown absolutely no offensive game. He's hit 6 jump shots, 4 of which were wide open and 2 were on the corner of the key over smaller players. His offensive game right now is basically that of an energy/hustle big. Everything's a dunk or alley and 75% of his FGs have been assisted. This is a stark contrast to Barnes for example, who's only had 30% of his buckets assisted and has show he can score at almost every level (although, his outside shot needs a lot of work too). Right now Mobley has the most limited offensive game of all the top rookies so far.
I would go as far as to say outside of his defensive contributions, which are almost exclusively in a help defence scenario or guards being led into or driving directly into him, as well as his willingness and ability to make quick, decisive passes, the rest of his game is quite unrefined and underdeveloped.
The biggest concern is that he's just not  a top level athlete. For the NBA I actually think, at least now (he is young so this could change) but he looks to be at best, pretty good. He is incredibly weak. Particularly core strength. Poor lower body strength and the other that stood out to me, he has very weak hands. He has and will get blocked (7 times already) and stripped very easily as evidenced by his 15 lost balls already which is 7th in the league. He can barely back down SFs and can't really take people off the dribble as he doesn't have a the strength and force to turn the corner aggressively. He is not explosive, does not have pogo like hops, and most of all doesn't have sheer aggressiveness that can compensate.  
Another big flaw is that although he's light on his feet, he can never really dig his feels in to allow for strong movements and pivots, something KG was elite at. Anybody who grew up a fan of KG practiced his post up, shimmy, turn and fade thousands of times and it was all in making sure to plant your feet hard. Ties back into the lower body strength this is something he'll definitely be able to improve. Until then though he will struggle with physicality and committing fouls too.
I just haven't seen a single element of his game that stands out as great or elite. His blocks have been nice but to be honest, the vast majority of them are either offensive players taking awful drives or him just jumping when the ball is near the rim. He has a good stride and can recover well if his man is in the right spot or angle but he is absolutely not someone who can fly around the floor on defence. 
If this is what people are citing as his incredible defence, Haliburton and Thybulle are averaging more blocks. Al Horford is averaging more than double his blocks. People who think blocks and steals = good defence have probably never played basketball extensively understand defensive concepts. Don't get me wrong his presence absolutely can affect the offence but the impact is usually only limited to the ball being next to him. 
I know people are excited about him as a prospect and I am too but people need to set some realistic short term expectations as he needs a lot of development.
I don't see a single reason or piece of evidence that shows he's the number one rookie.
Replace the bold with "I am a Raptors fan"
 
Honest question seeing the fleur de lys on your avatar.
Do you think Mobley is as athletic as Davis was in his rookie year?
 
No, Davis is a superior athlete. But defense isn't about athleticism. Once you have enough athleticism in terms of tools, adding more doesn't make you a better defender.
At the same age, he reads NBA schemes much better than any rookie we've seen in probably one to two decade. The reason why some have been excited about him is that the last player who can read offense like this was Garnett.
Davis was no where on the same level on this in reading the PnR, switches, screen and other schemes. Davis could guard the perimeter against guards like Mobley at the same age. Davis was better at challenging shots at the rim with better athleticism and bigger wingspan.
Team defense is really where rookies bigs all struggle universally. The likes of Towns, Ayton still cannot play effectively team defense to this day. Sure Ayton can play elite 1:1 defense (and acceptable for Towns) because of their physical tools, but they just don't possess the mental aspect to be elite defenders from a team perspective.
Perhaps the most unique aspect of Mobley is his ability to defend without fouling. His PF/40 in college is the lowest ever recorded for a lottery big. And so far his PF/40 is  While at the same time, he plays better defense than all of these players below.
Mobley: 2.1
Davis: 2.4
Ayton: 2.8
Oden: 3.8
Towns: 5
JJJ: 5.8
Embiid: 6.3
And in the 6-8 games so far this season, his PF/40 is still lower than any of the players above (of course those still in the league). Foul rate, steal rate, and turnover rates are some of the best defenders of defensive IQ and awareness.
Mobley projects as a generational defender first and foremost. As a result, I literally do not care about his offense. If he scores 10 points good, if he scores 15 great.
When a post from a Raptors fans ends with 'I just haven't seen a single element of his game that stands out as great or elite', that is just an indication that the poster doesn't watch or understand basketball.
Look guys, if you love your rookie, posts content to show they are better than others as opposed to making posts at tearing other rookies down. As I have mentioned before assuming continued production, Barnes is as good a rookie can be every year aka the best rookie you'll usually see every year on the average case. Assuming good development, his path is a all-NBA player. 
But for me, Mobley is really the only player in this draft who has a ceiling that can transcend that. If you ask me, can Barnes become  atop 20 all time player, I mean the answer is sure, but that path is so extremely unlikely. You need to follow some miracle developmental path that is so far outside the developmental norms. But for Mobley, he has more than a negligible chance of reaching that level late in his career.