LeBron James' 4-6 Record is Equally As Impressive as Jordan's 6-0

[conrad510]

If you actually examine those seasons individually you wouldn't reach that conclusion. Lebron's "brand of ball" is the reason his team went down two starters in the 2015 finals? or the reason why a hobbled/post-prime Wade was outperformed by four players on the opposing team in the 2014 finals? Lebron was the best player in every finals from 2012-2016. Not sure how anyone that was paying attention would assess that he is responsible for his team losing to elite teams like the 2014 Spurs and 2015 Warriors when you consider the circumstances.

Lebron's super-teams are the on-paper/preseason favorite every year (2011-2016), but fall to underdog as the season progress while another team becomes the juggernaut and ends up the Finals favorite (Spurs, Warriors).

So the historical record is that Lebron's has the on-paper/preseason favorite status (talent advantage), and therefore cedes this favorite status due to brand of ball (Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic, Suns), aka Lebron's inferior brand of ball causes his lower team ceilings/FInals records/weaker teams than other greats.


Comparing sidekick help while trying to 3-peat:

2014 Wade Playoffs...... 18.5 PER.. 0.086 WS/48.. 28.6 pts per 100.. 106 ortg
1993 Pippen Playoffs'.... 16.9 PER.. 0.083 WS/48.. 26.2 pts per 100.. 102 ortg


Jordan three-peated because he averaged 41 in the Finals, while Lebron averaged 13 less than MJ so he lost to the Spurs by 13 ppg - Lebron needed 41 to win like Jordan but failed and lost by record amount.. Btw, both the Bulls/Suns averaged exactly 106.7 ppg in the 93' Finals, so all of Jordan's points were needed.

And you can't complain about Lebron's 2014 cast because the Heat were defending champs with 4 HOF - so Bosh could've stepped up but brand of ball reduced him to spot-up shooter (Lebron's ball-dominance).. Furthermore, Pippen had the lowest advanced stats ever for a winning sidekick in the 93' Playoffs (PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP), so you can't complain about 14' Wade, who had higher PER, WS/48, efficiency and pace-adjusted scoring in the 14' Playoffs.. Wade was infact equal-scoring partner to Lebron in the ECF where he averaged 20/5/5 on 48%, while Pippen never got within 10 ppg of MJ in any series..

[falcolombardi]

Lebron's super-teams are the on-paper/preseason favorite every year (2011-2016), but fall to underdog as the season progress while another team becomes the juggernaut and ends up the Finals favorite (Spurs, Warriors).

So the historical record is that Lebron's has the on-paper/preseason favorite status (talent advantage), and therefore cedes this favorite status due to brand of ball (Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic, Suns), aka Lebron's inferior brand of ball causes his lower team ceilings/FInals records/weaker teams than other greats.


Comparing sidekick help while trying to 3-peat:

2014 Wade Playoffs...... 18.5 PER.. 0.086 WS/48.. 28.6 pts per 100.. 106 ortg
1993 Pippen Playoffs'.... 16.9 PER.. 0.083 WS/48.. 26.2 pts per 100.. 102 ortg


Jordan three-peated because he averaged 41 in the Finals, while Lebron averaged 13 less than MJ so he lost to the Spurs by 13 ppg - Lebron needed 41 to win like Jordan but failed and lost by record amount.. Btw, both the Bulls/Suns averaged exactly 106.7 ppg in the 93' Finals, so all of Jordan's points were needed.

And you can't complain about Lebron's 2014 cast because the Heat were defending champs with 4 HOF - so Bosh could've stepped up but brand of ball reduced him to spot-up shooter (Lebron's ball-dominance).. Furthermore, Pippen had the lowest advanced stats ever for a winning sidekick in the 93' Playoffs (PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP), so you can't complain about 14' Wade, who had higher PER, WS/48, efficiency and pace-adjusted scoring in the 14' Playoffs.. Wade was infact equal-scoring partner to Lebron in the ECF where he averaged 20/5/5 on 48%, while Pippen never got within 10 ppg of MJ in any series..

so you agree lebron was often facing juggernaut rivals?

wade post injury could be a slightly better offensive player than pippen, what about pippen being a goat tier perimeter defender and wade being "merely" a good one after injuries ?

so basketball is just how many points you score? what about pace, defense quality, assists ?

4 hall of famers of which only 2 were in their prime, 1 was past his prime, and the other was a nea r retirement role player at that point

may as well say the 2014 spurs had 4 hall of famers (duncan, ginobili, Parker, kawhi) themselves along with a healthier and better depth

[HeartBreakKid]

Come on, the point about Jordan > Russell because Russell isn't good in the "3 point era", which makes no sense because the 3 point line wasn't even used heavily until recently already proves that the guy just came on here to pump up Jordan. Like 80's 3 point shooting would invalidate Bill Russell's defense, the guy is using intellectual dishonesty, and it was obvious since he said that first line about Durant evening the score by joining the Warriors.

Fresh account made today. I'm surprise people are wasting any more posts replying to the guy. Clear agenda.

[HeartBreakKid]

LeBron James led the 2015 Cavaliers to 2 wins against the Warriors ..

i dont understand what you said here, are you saying Curry is a better player than Lebron and Lebron pulled some upset?
you realized 15 Warriors had no experience and Klay basically did not do anything in the finals and they still beat the cavs right?

I would hope they would beat the Cavs. The Warriors had no experience? Well, they had been in the playoffs for a couple years before - and they certainly had more experience than Mozgov and Delladova, as well as more ability which is significantly more relevant. Saying Klay Thompson did nothing is not even that relevant, because the Warriors had other good players other than him.

The Cavs also took the Warriors to overtime in one of their losses.

The Warriors certainly did not do as well as they should have against the Cavs.

[ty 4191]

Obviously this is a simplistic way of looking at things but the numbers do tell a story.

Based on preseason odds, Lebron's teams were title favorites 7 times (2011-2016, 2021) and walked away with 4 rings.
Based on preseason odds, Jordan's teams were title favorites 5 times (1992-1993, 1996-1998) and walked away with 6 ring.

What're your sources here?

I already posted this, here. The Bulls were a favorite 6 times a 6 Finals, based on Vegas odds.

Ldbron's teams were favorites based on Vegas Odds 30% the time.

....

[HeartBreakKid]

The Cavs were certainly not pre season favorites in 2014 and 16, that is rather absurd - even without looking it up if you stopped and think about it that would make no sense. They weren't the pre season favorites in 2011 either, I believe the Lakers were.

[ty 4191]

You think NBA players have only gotten worse since 30 years ago?


Most of the best players were in the 90s...?...prove that. But even if that was true, they weren't on the same team - which is an anomaly in the NBA's history. Most all time great players played with other all time great players.

In the 90s, the only two teams that had that were the Bulls and Jazz. Duncan and Robinson are the next closest thing, and their primes coincided the season after Jordan retired, and to nobodies surprise they won the NBA titles.

I don't even know what you're saying with the influx of players. Lebron James was an all-nba player by 2005. You really want me to list every great player from 2005 until 2019? I assure you if your standard for good player is Kenny Anderson and Latrell Sprewell I can make a much larger list.

How are the Celtics as bad as the Bobcats? And Minnesota was terrible during Jordan's era...you're really going to argue that a team like the Grizzlies and Raptors in the 90s weren't terrible teams?

Since Jordan's time the NBA has gotten significantly more players from Europe to come over. They also have an actual minor league that is producing rotational players. People actually practice 3 point shots. I'm really not following how people in the 90s are better than today.

Excellent post here!!

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

“During the 1980-81 season, only 1.7% of NBA players were born outside the United States. Over the next 17 seasons, the percentage of foreign-born players grew steadily to 7.6% in the 1997-98 season. But then things took off as the percentage nearly tripled in just the next seven seasons, reaching 22.1% in the 2004-05 season.

But despite reaching an all-time high last season, with 28.6% of the players being from outside the United States, that number has dropped to 24.8% this season.”

See chart here, also:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10%3famp

Lebron has played against a truly globalized League.

Michael Jordan certainly did not.

[falcolombardi]

The Cavs were certainly not pre season favorites in 2014 and 16, that is rather absurd - even without looking it up if you stopped and think about it that would make no sense. They weren't the pre season favorites in 2011 either, I believe the Lakers were.

is also kind of irrelevant, 2013 lakers were considered pre season favorites by many, and we all saw how that went

nobody would Blame kobe for falling to do much with those lakers preseason odds be damned

2015 warriors coming out of npwhere (relatively speaking) doesnt make them any less of a juggernaut and favorite over the injured cavs

[ty 4191]

That’s called parity.

Expansion teams didn’t effect parity? The hell are you smoking?

Exactly.

Let's look at the last 10 years of Jordan's Bulls run (1989-1998) compared to the last 10 (full) years for Lebron James. All 29 or 30 teams. Overall team winning percentages tell the story of how deep and balanced the leagues were...

1989-1998:
Standard Deviation, σ: 0.131

Count, N: 29
Sum, Σx: 14.111
Mean, μ: 0.48658620689655
Variance, σ2: 0.017146449464923

10 out of 30 teams (33%) were below a .400 winning percentage, overall, those years. Three teams were over .650, overall. Three teams were below a .300 winning percentage.

2012-2021:
Standard Deviation, σ: 0.084

Count, N: 30
Sum, Σx: 14.997
Mean, μ: 0.4999
Variance, σ2: 0.0070713566666667


3 out of 30 teams (10%) were below a .400 winning percentage overall, those years. Zero teams below .300 overall. No teams were over. .655.

[ty 4191]

1988-1995 Expansion Teams, prior to reaching the playoffs, along with the Bulls' record against them prior to each team making the playoffs:

Charlotte Hornets:
First Playoff Appearance: 1993

Overall Game Record, 1988–1993: 140–270 (.341)

Bulls Record vs. Hornets: 18-3

Miami Heat:
First playoff appearance: 1992

Overall game record, 1988–1992: 95–233 (.289)

Bulls Record vs. Heat: 17-0

Orlando Magic:
First playoff appearance: 1994

Overall game record, 1989-1994: 106–249 (.299)

Bulls Record vs. Magic: 13-6

Timberwolves:
First playoff appearance: 1997

Overall game record, 1989-1997: 192–464 (.293)

Bulls Record vs. Timberwolves: 16-0

Raptors:
First playoff appearance: 2000

Overall game record, 1995–2000: 135–243 (.357)

Bulls Record vs. Raptors: 10-2

Grizzlies:
First playoff appearance: 2004

Overall game record, 1995–2003: 154–472 (.244)

Jordan's Teams vs. Grizzlies (1996-1998): 6-0

Bulls Overall Record Versus Expansion Teams: 80-11 (.879)

[HeartBreakKid]

The Cavs were certainly not pre season favorites in 2014 and 16, that is rather absurd - even without looking it up if you stopped and think about it that would make no sense. They weren't the pre season favorites in 2011 either, I believe the Lakers were.

is also kind of irrelevant, 2013 lakers were considered pre season favorites by many, and we all saw how that went

nobody would Blame kobe for falling to do much with those lakers preseason odds be damned

2015 warriors coming out of npwhere (relatively speaking) doesnt make them any less of a juggernaut and favorite over the injured cavs

Good call, I forgot about the team the Lakers put with Bryant, Gasol, Howard, Nash. Talk about making a superteam, they were certainly the favorites - for someone to deliberately write the opposite is kind of sad.

That guy is flat out lying saying Lebron's teams were favored all those years.

[ty 4191]

Lebron faced better teams in the NBA Finals. Overall. Period.

It's not even close.

Sources:
https://www.sportscasting.com/heres-the-real-difference-in-the-nba-finals-records-of-michael-jordan-and-lebron-james/

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/betting-odds-history-1990s-chicago-bulls-dynasty-michael-jordan

Jordan's teams were favorites to win every single NBA Finals he played in. Lebron's teams were only favorites 30% of his 10 Finals.

1991: -200 favorites
1992:-250 favorites
1993: -240 favorites
1996: -950 favorites
1997: -600 favorites
1998: -115 favorites

So now let’s look at what LeBron James’ teams were expected to do in the NBA Finals.

2007 Cleveland Cavaliers: +360 underdogs
2011 Miami Heat: -175 favorites
2012 Miami Heat: +155 underdogs
2013 Miami Heat: -220 favorites
2014 Miami Heat: +135 underdogs
2015 Cleveland Cavaliers: +190 underdogs
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers: +180 underdogs
2017 Cleveland Cavaliers: +250 underdogs
2018 Cleveland Cavaliers: +688 underdogs
2020 Los Angeles Lakers: -350 favorites

(So, yes, perhaps, 4-6 in 17 seasons is more impressive than 6-0 in 15 seasons.)

[prolific passer]

Hmm. Would love to see prime Curry vs prime Payton.
Just noticed something. Each of the teams Jordan faced had an all star point guard.

[falcolombardi]

Hmm. Would love to see prime Curry vs prime Payton.
Just noticed something. Each of the teams Jordan faced had an all star point guard.

relatively bad matchup for gary

curry is a guy who runs all game long to get open, and payton was more of a lockdown defender in 1vs1 situations

not that he would do a bad job mind you, just that defending curry is less about lockdown mano a mano duels and more about off ball defense and running through screens

prime Tony allen would be really interesting tho

[prolific passer]

Hmm. Would love to see prime Curry vs prime Payton.
Just noticed something. Each of the teams Jordan faced had an all star point guard.

relatively bad matchup for gary

curry is a guy who runs all game long to get open, and payton was more of a lockdown defender in 1vs1 situations

not that he would do a bad job mind you, just that defending curry is less about lockdown mano a mano duels and more about off ball defense and running through screens

prime Tony allen would be really interesting tho

Would depend on what set of rules they play under.

[Djoker]

Obviously this is a simplistic way of looking at things but the numbers do tell a story.

Based on preseason odds, Lebron's teams were title favorites 7 times (2011-2016, 2021) and walked away with 4 rings.
Based on preseason odds, Jordan's teams were title favorites 5 times (1992-1993, 1996-1998) and walked away with 6 ring.

What're your sources here?

I already posted this, here. The Bulls were a favorite 6 times a 6 Finals, based on Vegas odds.

Ldbron's teams were favorites based on Vegas Odds 30% the time.

....

It's from Basketball-Reference. On the season summaries, hover over the "Other" tab and you will see "Preseason Odds".

When it comes to series betting odds you should be converting those betting lines into implied odds or probability of winning. You can use this link here to quickly convert them:

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Anyways I added the implied odds to their finals series.

1991: -200 favorites ---> 66.7%
1992:-250 favorites ---> 71.4%
1993: -240 favorites ---> 70.6%
1996: -950 favorites ---> 90.5%
1997: -600 favorites ---> 85.7%
1998: -125 favorites ---> 55.6%

Average Winning Odds: 73.4%
Actual Finals Record: 6-0 (better)

So yes the Bulls were indeed favorites in every finals but winning every series is still very impressive. You'd expect them to go 4-2 or maybe 5-1 but they went 6-0.

2007 Cleveland Cavaliers: +360 underdogs ---> 21.7%
2011 Miami Heat: -175 favorites ---> 63.6%
2012 Miami Heat: +155 underdogs ---> 39.2%
2013 Miami Heat: -220 favorites --> 68.8%
2014 Miami Heat: +135 underdogs ---> 42.6%
2015 Cleveland Cavaliers: +190 underdogs ---> 34.5%
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers: +180 underdogs ---> 35.7%
2017 Cleveland Cavaliers: +250 underdogs ---> 28.6%
2018 Cleveland Cavaliers: +688 underdogs ---> 12.7%
2020 Los Angeles Lakers: -350 favorites ---> 77.8%

Average Winning Odds: 42.5%
Actual Finals Record: 4-6 (worse)

So based on implied odds, Lebron's teams underachieved. You can blame injuries in 2015 but then you can also say opponent injuries helped in 2020 and even bring up injuries/suspensions in 2016. It largely balances out.

And of course the issue of series odds is you can earn an unwarranted underdog status in the first place because your team underachieved in the regular season. Lebron's teams were preseason favorites from 2011-2016 every single season... The problem with Lebron is precisely that his teams were underdogs going into some of the series. They shouldn't have been based on their talent.

[falcolombardi]

Obviously this is a simplistic way of looking at things but the numbers do tell a story.

Based on preseason odds, Lebron's teams were title favorites 7 times (2011-2016, 2021) and walked away with 4 rings.
Based on preseason odds, Jordan's teams were title favorites 5 times (1992-1993, 1996-1998) and walked away with 6 ring.

What're your sources here?

I already posted this, here. The Bulls were a favorite 6 times a 6 Finals, based on Vegas odds.

Ldbron's teams were favorites based on Vegas Odds 30% the time.

....

It's from Basketball-Reference. On the season summaries, hover over the "Other" tab and you will see "Preseason Odds".

When it comes to series betting odds you should be converting those betting lines into implied odds or probability of winning. You can use this link here to quickly convert them:

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Anyways I added the implied odds to their finals series.

1991: -200 favorites ---> 66.7%
1992:-250 favorites ---> 71.4%
1993: -240 favorites ---> 70.6%
1996: -950 favorites ---> 90.5%
1997: -600 favorites ---> 85.7%
1998: -125 favorites ---> 55.6%

Average Winning Odds: 73.4%
Actual Finals Record: 6-0 (better)

So yes the Bulls were indeed favorites in every finals but winning every series is still very impressive. You'd expect them to go 4-2 or maybe 5-1 but they went 6-0.

2007 Cleveland Cavaliers: +360 underdogs ---> 21.7%
2011 Miami Heat: -175 favorites ---> 63.6%
2012 Miami Heat: +155 underdogs ---> 39.2%
2013 Miami Heat: -220 favorites --> 68.8%
2014 Miami Heat: +135 underdogs ---> 42.6%
2015 Cleveland Cavaliers: +190 underdogs ---> 34.5%
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers: +180 underdogs ---> 35.7%
2017 Cleveland Cavaliers: +250 underdogs ---> 28.6%
2018 Cleveland Cavaliers: +688 underdogs ---> 12.7%
2020 Los Angeles Lakers: -350 favorites ---> 77.8%

Average Winning Odds: 42.5%
Actual Finals Record: 4-6 (worse)

So based on implied odds, Lebron's teams underachieved. You can blame injuries in 2015 but then you can also say opponent injuries helped in 2020 and even bring up injuries/suspensions in 2016. It largely balances out.

And of course the issue of series odds is you can earn an unwarranted underdog status in the first place because your team underachieved in the regular season. Lebron's teams were preseason favorites from 2011-2016 every single season... The problem with Lebron is precisely that his teams were underdogs going into some of the series. They shouldn't have been based on their talent.

i am fairly confused by your math here, yes, that bulls were favorites in each finals doesnt mean they didnt overacjieve by winning all six, i agree, at the same time then you have to consider that bulls odds in 90 and 95 were significatively better than zero too... and include thst in your total odds, not only the finals

and by that same logic, that lebron teams were favorites to make the finals from 2011-2018 doesnt mean they didnt overachieve by doing it all 8 times either, amd you always call lebron making the finals nearly worthless, there is serious value in taking care of underdogs

also, lebron by your odds was the finals favorite 3 times, and won 4 rings, how is that if not a big overachiving. not at least meeting expectations? the roundimg down you did of 42% for 4 rings of 10 as underachieving was really odd too

[twyzted]

You think NBA players have only gotten worse since 30 years ago?


Most of the best players were in the 90s...?...prove that. But even if that was true, they weren't on the same team - which is an anomaly in the NBA's history. Most all time great players played with other all time great players.

In the 90s, the only two teams that had that were the Bulls and Jazz. Duncan and Robinson are the next closest thing, and their primes coincided the season after Jordan retired, and to nobodies surprise they won the NBA titles.

I don't even know what you're saying with the influx of players. Lebron James was an all-nba player by 2005. You really want me to list every great player from 2005 until 2019? I assure you if your standard for good player is Kenny Anderson and Latrell Sprewell I can make a much larger list.

How are the Celtics as bad as the Bobcats? And Minnesota was terrible during Jordan's era...you're really going to argue that a team like the Grizzlies and Raptors in the 90s weren't terrible teams?

Since Jordan's time the NBA has gotten significantly more players from Europe to come over. They also have an actual minor league that is producing rotational players. People actually practice 3 point shots. I'm really not following how people in the 90s are better than today.

Excellent post here!!

https://www.businessinsider.com/nba-foreign-born-players-2016-11

“During the 1980-81 season, only 1.7% of NBA players were born outside the United States. Over the next 17 seasons, the percentage of foreign-born players grew steadily to 7.6% in the 1997-98 season. But then things took off as the percentage nearly tripled in just the next seven seasons, reaching 22.1% in the 2004-05 season.

But despite reaching an all-time high last season, with 28.6% of the players being from outside the United States, that number has dropped to 24.8% this season.”

See chart here, also:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/growing-number-of-foreign-born-players-in-nba-slows-2018-10%3famp

Lebron has played against a truly globalized League.

Michael Jordan certainly did not.

Im 99,9% convinced you are some bot. You have posted this bs 3 times in this thread.

Nba didnt pay better then european/south american teams, the Nba wasnt even that popular outside of america. Non americans value playing for their country so by joining the nba they couldnt play for their NT.

Also you are clearly trolling/baiting are there no mods on this board or?

[Djoker]

i am fairly confused by your math here, yes, that bulls were favorites in each finals doesnt mean they didnt overacjieve by winning all six, i agree, at the same time then you have to consider that bulls odds in 90 and 95 were significatively better than zero too... and include thst in your total odds, not only the finals

That post looks at just the finals series. Looking at preseason odds of winning titles is a whole lot worse for Lebron.

and by that same logic, that lebron teams were favorites to make the finals from 2011-2018 doesnt mean they didnt overachieve by doing it all 8 times either, amd you always call lebron making the finals nearly worthless, there is serious value in taking care of underdogs

Sure there is some credit due for reaching those finals...

also, lebron by your odds was the finals favorite 3 times, and won 4 rings, how is that if not a big overachiving. not at least meeting expectations? the roundimg down you did of 42% for 4 rings of 10 as underachieving was really odd too

It's not overachieving because there were many series that he was only a slight underdog. 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2020 were all very winnable if you trust the bookies. A win probability between 28.6% and 77.8% for all of those.

I explained that I think Lebron is an underachiever because his teams were underdogs in many of these series when they shouldn't have been based on their talent. The Heat in 2011 and 2014 were not less talented than the Mavs and Spurs. The Cavs in 2015 and 2016 were not less talented than the Warriors. The Cavs in 2017 were less talented than the Warriors but that was still a series that should have been more competitive. When your teams have bad regular seasons you get the "benefit" of coming into the series as an underdog.

[LA Bird]

Skimmed through the thread and noticed this blatant revisionist history that somehow didn't get called out

2020 Lakers looked like they were shot out of a cannon in the bubble. They had clearly benefitted from the time off and looked like they'd been able to continue practicing together. Many stars/teams weren't able to do that due to lockdowns and looked significantly worse than they had months earlier.

It's unclear how much either of these circumstances impacted the end result but one could certainly make a case Lebron specifically benefitted both times.

The Lakers net rating went from +7.1 to -6.6 during the bubble, the largest decline of any team in the league. They had the second worst net rating out of the bubble teams ahead of only the Beal-less Wizards and they were so awful offensively during those bubble games that it dragged them down from the 4th best offense to outside of the top 10 for the season. Saying the Lakers looked like they were shot out of a cannon in the bubble puts into doubt whether you even watched any actual games at all.