Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[gambitx777]

https://youtu.be/uN4drABptw8

A good video breaking some stuff down!

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[dckingsfan]

The starting lineup wasn't Wes' best work... Avdija with the massive +/-; Harrell/Avdija the best two man rotation.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211113&game=WASORL

[nate33]

The starting lineup wasn't Wes' best work... Avdija with the massive +/-; Harrell/Avdija the best two man rotation.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211113&game=WASORL

This has a lot to do with the fact that Orlando's bench unit is trash.

Orlando's bench unit to close the 1st and 3rd quarters was:

Jalen Suggs
Garry Harris
Terence Ross
Chuma Okeke
Mo Bamba

Seriously, who is supposed to score with that unit?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The starting lineup wasn't Wes' best work... Avdija with the massive +/-; Harrell/Avdija the best two man rotation.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211113&game=WASORL

This has a lot to do with the fact that Orlando's bench unit is trash.

Orlando's bench unit to close the 1st and 3rd quarters was:

Jalen Suggs
Garry Harris
Terence Ross
Chuma Okeke
Mo Bamba

Seriously, who is supposed to score with that unit?

Before the season started, I was advocating for starting Rui & Kuz together. But given how this team is playing, for the sake of retaining our chemistry, I would bring Rui off the bench and keep the starting 5 as is.

I'm thinking starting unit...

Dinwiddie
Beal
KCP
Kuz
Gafford

2nd unit

Neto
Kispert/Holiday
Deni
Rui
Trez

[nate33]

The starting lineup wasn't Wes' best work... Avdija with the massive +/-; Harrell/Avdija the best two man rotation.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211113&game=WASORL

This has a lot to do with the fact that Orlando's bench unit is trash.

Orlando's bench unit to close the 1st and 3rd quarters was:

Jalen Suggs
Garry Harris
Terence Ross
Chuma Okeke
Mo Bamba

Seriously, who is supposed to score with that unit?

Before the season started, I was advocating for starting Rui & Kuz together. But given how this team is playing, for the sake of retaining our chemistry, I would bring Rui off the bench and keep the starting 5 as is.

I'm thinking starting unit...

Dinwiddie
Beal
KCP
Kuz
Gafford

2nd unit

Neto
Kispert/Holiday
Deni
Rui
Trez

That's basically what the Wizards did against Orlando, except with Gill in place of Rui (and Holiday getting Beal's minutes).

[SUPERBALLMAN]

This has a lot to do with the fact that Orlando's bench unit is trash.

Orlando's bench unit to close the 1st and 3rd quarters was:

Jalen Suggs
Garry Harris
Terence Ross
Chuma Okeke
Mo Bamba

Seriously, who is supposed to score with that unit?

Before the season started, I was advocating for starting Rui & Kuz together. But given how this team is playing, for the sake of retaining our chemistry, I would bring Rui off the bench and keep the starting 5 as is.

I'm thinking starting unit...

Dinwiddie
Beal
KCP
Kuz
Gafford

2nd unit

Neto
Kispert/Holiday
Deni
Rui
Trez

That's basically what the Wizards did against Orlando, except with Gill in place of Rui (and Holiday getting Beal's minutes).

Yeah good call on that Nate, I hadn't really noticed that but you're right. I have noticed Neto & Kispert coming in together on the regular, and they seem to play well together, and Trez and Deni have been good off the bench, especially Trez obviously.

I do like that 2nd unit, as well as the starting. Of course there'll be a lot of mixing and matching. But just generally speaking, I love the hustle you get from Neto, Kispert, and Trez, as well as the offense. But that's a lot energy coming in on those nights we need a boost. I also like the length and defense with Rui and Deni.

I think bringing Rui off the bench will help keep the pressure off him to find his comfort zone, and teamed with Deni in the front court pairing last season's starters together, as well as with Kispert his friend and college teammate will help him to find some quick chemistry. And I think being on the floor with Trez will be good for him, and Neto.

[NatP4]

This is still what I would be doing:

Dinwiddie Neto
Beal Kispert
KCP Avdija
Avdija Rui/Bertans
Gafford Harrell

[nate33]

This is still what I would be doing:

Dinwiddie Neto
Beal Kispert
KCP Avdija
Avdija Rui/Bertans
Gafford Harrell

I think the rotation Wes has now works fine. A fair case can be made that Avdija is better than Kuzma, but Kuzma is definitely the better scorer. That second unit, since it has Harrell getting buckets, can accommodate Avdija's anemic scoring, and Avdija's superior defensive rotations help compensate for Harrell's lack of rim protection.

The rotation Wes is using right now is basically:

G Dinwiddie/Neto
G Beal/Dinwiddie (plus a couple of Holiday minutes)
SF KCP/Kispert
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Gafford/Harrell

When Bertans gets back, he should replace Kispert.

When Rui gets back, I don't know what to do. Maybe an injury elsewhere will solve the problem for us. Otherwise, he will probably eat into Avdija's minutes first, and then Kuzma's. It'll really depend on how well Rui plays. If he hasn't improved from last year, I'm not sure he deserves minutes over either Avdija or Kuzma.

[dckingsfan]

The starting lineup wasn't Wes' best work... Avdija with the massive +/-; Harrell/Avdija the best two man rotation.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211113&game=WASORL

This has a lot to do with the fact that Orlando's bench unit is trash.

Orlando's bench unit to close the 1st and 3rd quarters was:

Jalen Suggs
Garry Harris
Terence Ross
Chuma Okeke
Mo Bamba

Seriously, who is supposed to score with that unit?

Before the season started, I was advocating for starting Rui & Kuz together. But given how this team is playing, for the sake of retaining our chemistry, I would bring Rui off the bench and keep the starting 5 as is.

I'm thinking starting unit...

Dinwiddie
Beal
KCP
Kuz
Gafford

2nd unit

Neto
Kispert/Holiday
Deni
Rui
Trez

And note - even when Avidja/Harrell went against (mostly) the first unit they did very well. And yes, when Bertans, Rui and Bryant return, it is going to be very interesting...

[doclinkin]

This is still what I would be doing:

Dinwiddie Neto
Beal Kispert
KCP Avdija
Avdija Rui/Bertans
Gafford Harrell

I think the rotation Wes has now works fine. A fair case can be made that Avdija is better than Kuzma, but Kuzma is definitely the better scorer. That second unit, since it has Harrell getting buckets, can accommodate Avdija's anemic scoring, and Avdija's superior defensive rotations help compensate for Harrell's lack of rim protection.

The rotation Wes is using right now is basically:

G Dinwiddie/Neto
G Beal/Dinwiddie (plus a couple of Holiday minutes)
SF KCP/Kispert
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Gafford/Harrell

When Bertans gets back, he should replace Kispert.

When Rui gets back, I don't know what to do. Maybe an injury elsewhere will solve the problem for us. Otherwise, he will probably eat into Avdija's minutes first, and then Kuzma's. It'll really depend on how well Rui plays. If he hasn't improved from last year, I'm not sure he deserves minutes over either Avdija or Kuzma.

I think Rui is going to be months behind the others and it may take a while before he works his way back into the rotation. I expect he will earn time in situational substitutions when we have foul trouble on our front line, or games where we can play him in a box-and-1 against tall focal-point scorers. I don't think he takes Deni's minutes given Deni's advanced team defense and general savvy. Rui has often struggled with team concepts on both sides of the ball, so until Wes has a read on what he can do well I doubt he will upset the apple cart by introducing him too quickly before he gets up to speed. He alluded to chemistry adjustments the team will endure with guys returning from injury. That includes guys like Bertans who at least understand the concepts of high level team play. Rui is a willing student, Wes is a great teacher, given time I still think Rui has notable upside, still missing training camp and early season chemistry puts him well behind the curve when the team is entering the tough part of the schedule.

[dckingsfan]

I guess this shouldn't surprise us much - Harrell/Avidja combo is pretty good.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&GroupQuantity=2&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*125

[dckingsfan]

Starters had a terrific run at the start of the second quarter. Harrell/Avidja was solid again.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211115&game=NORWAS

[dckingsfan]

Under the heading of a rotation to stay away from (or maybe just an anomaly with Kuz/Deni going a combined 2 of 15 from 3):

Neto, Beal, Avidja, Kuzma, Harrell combo was a quick -15 in two stints.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211117&game=WASCHA

And an ugly net rating of -115

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&OpponentTeamID=1610612766

[nate33]

Under the heading of a rotation to stay away from (or maybe just an anomaly with Kuz/Deni going a combined 2 of 15 from 3):

Neto, Beal, Avidja, Kuzma, Harrell combo was a quick -15 in two stints.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211117&game=WASCHA

And an ugly net rating of -115

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&OpponentTeamID=1610612766

Small sample size theater. You absolutely cannot make any judgement whatsoever about the effectiveness of a lineup in just one game.

That same 5-man lineup is +3 over 36 minutes this season.
That same lineup with Holiday in place of Neto is +33 in 14 minutes.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2022
(I'm assuming bball reference numbers don't yet incorporate last night's game)

[dckingsfan]

Under the heading of a rotation to stay away from (or maybe just an anomaly with Kuz/Deni going a combined 2 of 15 from 3):

Neto, Beal, Avidja, Kuzma, Harrell combo was a quick -15 in two stints.

http://www.popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20211117&game=WASCHA

And an ugly net rating of -115

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&OpponentTeamID=1610612766

Small sample size theater. You absolutely cannot make any judgement whatsoever about the effectiveness of a lineup in just one game.

That same 5-man lineup is +3 over 36 minutes this season.
That same lineup with Holiday in place of Neto is +33 in 14 minutes.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2022
(I'm assuming bball reference numbers don't yet incorporate last night's game)

Sorry... should have been clearer in my post - fixed.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm interested to see Ayayi , I'd like to see him get a chance to see how he might fit in the rotation.

[dckingsfan]

The fix is in... Harrell/Avidja are the best two in terms of net rating (larger sample sise) when paired together

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&GroupQuantity=2&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*200

or with another player..

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&GroupQuantity=3&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1&CF=MIN*G*100

[dckingsfan]

I'm interested to see Ayayi , I'd like to see him get a chance to see how he might fit in the rotation.

Who do you want to see him paired with and when?

[NatP4]

I'm interested to see Ayayi , I'd like to see him get a chance to see how he might fit in the rotation.

Same. I think he’s going to be a really good 3rd guard.

In 5 G-League games he’s averaging 14 points 7.7 assists and 6.7 rebounds per 36 on 67.8% TS. Shooting the 3 at 38.5%.

Those are basically identical to his junior year numbers at Gonzaga plus a massive increase in assists.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm interested to see Ayayi , I'd like to see him get a chance to see how he might fit in the rotation.

Same. I think he’s going to be a really good 3rd guard.

In 5 G-League games he’s averaging 14 points 7.7 assists and 6.7 rebounds per 36 on 67.8% TS. Shooting the 3 at 38.5%.

Those are basically identical to his junior year numbers at Gonzaga plus a massive increase in assists.

Yeah, I just like his skills as a guard who you could possibly play with either Dinwiddie or Beal, Good size, versatile, well rounded game & IQ.