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Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#401 » by montestewart » Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:05 pm

nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:I addressed this in the Covid thread. It is accurate. There are studies from Israel and the UK with massive sample sizes that show this. Natural immunity is longer lasting than vaccinated immunity (perhaps permanent), and it is a sterilizing immunity which prevents transmission. Vaccinated immunity does virtually nothing to prevent you from being a carrier. All it does is reduce severity.



More recent study (released last week) of 200,000 admissions from 187 hospitals says no:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm

Unvaccinated adults with previous infections (within 3-6 months prior) were 5x more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated adults who had never had COVID.


Spoiler:
“Natural immunity confers longer-lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SCoV2, compared to vaccine-induced immunity.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1

“Israelis who had an infection were more protected against the Delta coronavirus variant than those who had an already highly effective COVID-19 vaccine.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

The NIH posts this: "The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection."
https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

Out of Ireland: "Reinfection was an uncommon event (absolute rate 0%-1.1%), with no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time."

Qatar: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2781112

Denmark: "The spike protein was identified as the dominant target for both neutralizing antibodies and T-cell responses. Overall, the majority of patients had robust adaptive immune responses, regardless of their disease severity."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00203-6/fulltext

From the UK: "T-cell responses were present in all [non-hospitalized] individuals at six months after SARS-CoV-2 infection."
https://www.uk-cic.org/news/cellular-immunity-sars-cov-2-found-six-months-non-hospitalised-individuals

From Emory University: "Our findings show that most C19 patients induce a wide-ranging immune defense against SARS-CoV-2 infection, encompassing antibodies and memory B cells recognizing both the RBD and other regions of the spike..."
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2666379121002032%3Fshowall%3Dtrue

Washington University and Nature: "Our results indicate that mild infection with SCoV2 induces robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune memory in humans."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4#citeas

"The weighted average risk reduction against reinfection was 90.4%... Protection against SCoV2 reinfection was observed for up to 10 mo. The protective effect of prior infection on re-infection is high and similar to the protective effect of vaccination."

Harvard study of Israeli data found vaxed were 27 times more likely to get symptomatic COVID infection than those w/ natural immunity. The risk of a vaccine-breakthrough case was 13-times higher for Delta variant, and the risk of hospitalization 8x higher.
https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

Just 72 of 7,700+ new cases detected during wave starting in May were from people known to have been infected previously – less than 1% of new cases. Vaxed people are 6.7x more likely to be infected than those who had COVID previously.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/309762

Natural immunity conveys much more innate immunity, while the vaccine mainly stimulates adaptive immunity.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3838993

"Natural infection induced expansion of larger CD8 T cell clones occupied distinct clusters, likely due to the recognition of a broader set of viral epitopes presented by the virus not seen in the mRNA vaccine."
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.14.452381v1

Israeli researchers studied 6.3 million Israelis and their COVID status and were able to confirm only one death in the entire country of someone who supposedly already had the virus, and he was over 80 years old.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670v1

French researchers found "No neutralization escape could be feared concerning the two variants of concern [Alpha and Beta]" of those previously infected.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.11.21256578v1

Austria study found frequency of re-infection caused hospitalization in only 5/14,840 (0.03%) & death in 1/14,840 (0.01%). “Protection against SARS-CoV-2 after natural infection is comparable with the highest available estimates on vaccine efficacies.”
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13520

“Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined among 52k+ employees in an American healthcare system. COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the [time] of the study among 2,579 individuals previously infected… including 1,359 who did not take the vaccine.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v2.full.pdf

In a large study from Denmark, less than 0.7% of people who tested positive for COVID, including those who were asymptomatic, ever tested positive again—a “breakthrough infection” rate similar to that of vaccines.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext

Systemic review of all 1.4k COVID reports on PubMed / MedRxiv found “weighted avg risk reduction against reinfection was 90.4% w/ standard deviation of 7.7%.” “similar to protective effect of vax.” "Protection vs reinfection observed for up to 10 months."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262741v1

Another meta-analysis & review of natural immunity looked at 54 studies, from 18 countries, w/records from more than 12M individuals, followed up to 8 months- & those researchers found an average reinfection rate for COVID-recovered patients of just 0.2%.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.03.21263103v1.full.pdf

“It’s empirically undeniable that natural immunity after COVID infection is superior to vaccine immunity." (source)

“Immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection can persist for at least 11 months." "The protective effect of prior infection (is) similar to 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.”
https://www.idsociety.org/globalassets/idsa/media/clinician-call-slides--qa/07-17-21-clinician-call-slides-1.pdf

NEJM Study following 12,541 UK healthcare workers for COVID19 re-infection over 31 weeks found that Natural immunity held up well over the 6 months of the study, with only two cases of asymptomatic reinfections observed.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545?s=09

Study (mentioned above) of 1.4k previously infected Cleveland Clinic health care workers found not a single one was re-infected 10 months into pandemic, despite some of these individuals being around COVID-positive patients more than regular population
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.01.21258176v3

1.6k people in Italy studied for one year after initial infection. Only 5 reinfections. “Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 appears to confer a protective effect for at least a year, which is similar to the protection reported in recent vaccine studies.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2780557

Those "who recover [even] from mild COVID19 have bone-marrow cells that churn out antibodies for decades." Prior infection creates memory B cells that "patrol blood for reinfection, while bone marrow plasma trickle out antibodies for decades"
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01442-9

Qatar study analyzed population‐level risk of reinfection. Researchers estimate the risk at 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks. Most importantly, the study found no evidence of waning of immunity for over seven months of the follow-up period.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00141-3/fulltext#%20

Irish researchers conducted review of 11 cohort studies w/ 600k+ total recovered COVID patients who were followed for over 10 months. Unlike vaccine, after ~4-6 months, they found "no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV-9999-e2260.pdf

Emory University study found that most recovered patients produced durable antibodies, memory B cells, and durable polyfunctional CD4 and CD8 T cells, which target multiple parts of the virus. NI "may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients.”
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2#%20

Antibodies wane slower among those with prior infection. "In vaccinated subjects, antibody titers decreased by up to 40% each subsequent month while in convalescents they decreased by less than 5% per month."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.19.21262111v1

In response to the notion that "Not everyone gets Natural Immunity - and it wanes." Activation-induced marker assays identified specific T-helper cells and central memory T-cells in 80% of participants at a 12-month follow-up.”
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34362088/

An in-vitro study in Singapore found the immunity against SARS-CoV-2 to last even 17 years later from SARS-1-infected patients who never even had COVID-19. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

When examining survivors of the Spanish Flu, scientists found that they were still immune 90 years later. “To this day, people who survived the 1918 flu pandemic carry antibodies that can remember and neutralise the murderous strain.”
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/flu-survivors-still-immune-after-90-years

“Immunity to the Coronavirus may last years. Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

“Following a typical case of COVID19, Tcells not only persist but continuously differentiate in a coordinated fashion well into convalescence into a state characteristic of long-lived, self-renewing memory… Tcells are less prone to evasion by variants"
https://www.jimmunol.org/content/207/5/1344

"memory B cells in those w/ prior infection "express increasingly broad & potent antibodies - resistant to mutations found in variants." "memory antibodies selected by natural infection have greater potency & breadth than antibodies elicited by vax"
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.454333v1

Back to that massive Israeli study of real-world data… “This analysis demonstrated that natural immunity affords longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization due to the delta variant.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/previous-covid-prevents-delta-infection-better-than-pfizer-shot

Johns Hopkins studied ~1k healthcare workers & found 4.4x elevated risk of "clinically significant" side-effects following vax of those w/ prior COVID. "Prior COVID was associated w/ increased odds of clinically significant symptoms following dose 1"
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2782821?guestAccessKey=bda55105-4494-4cda-bac3-ae51e3cde92b&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jamainternalmedicine&utm_content=olf&utm_term=081621

“A prior COVID-19 infection was associated with an 8% increase in the risk of having any side effects after the first vaccine dose." "a prior COVID-19 infection was associated with the risk of experiencing a severe side effect requiring hospital care"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8002738/

"in individuals with a pre-existing immunity against COVID, 2nd vax dose not only failed to boost humoral immunity but determines a contraction of the spike-specific T cell response."
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.22.436441v1

“Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection."
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8078878/

The risk of death from the vaccine is statistically small, but it exists nonetheless. It’s therefore immoral & illogical to force those who already have robust & durable immunity to take a vaccine with real and serious potential side effects.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/are-covid-vaccines-riskier-than-advertised-11624381749

“Hyperviscosity is likely to occur in any recipient who has previous COVID19. Screening for possible previous COVID-19 before COVID-19 vaccination might be necessary for prevention of unwanted blood thrombohemostasis adverse effect.”
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10760296211020833

Requiring the immune to get vaxed unnecessarily exposes them to risk of adverse reactions, including thrombosis & myocardial inflammation, neurologic injury, & possibly death. These side effects also appear more predominant in male patients.
https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download

“COVID Vaccination is associated with two-fold higher odds of gout flare (adjusted odds ratio 1.99; 95% CI 1.01 to 3.89).”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7184318/

"underlying activation due to infection or exposure, in synergy with a vaccination, could lead to overstimulation of the immune response."
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/544662-covid-vaccines-are-you-primed-for-the-best-outcome?rl=1

“When a vax reactivates immune response in recently infected persons, the tissues harboring the persisting viral antigen are targeted, inflamed and damaged by the immune response.”
https://noorchashm.medium.com/already-or-had-a-covid-19-infection-or-think-you-did-b282f9471605

We only prevent 1 asymptomatic re-infection for every 833 people w/ natural immunity we vax. But ~1 in 11 COVID-recovered experience clinically significant side effects. This means: to prevent a single asymptomatic case, we hurt ~75
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1.full.pdf

“Many healthcare workers, especially those who have heroically worked through pandemic, already have natural immunity. FDA’s refusal to acknowledge this & provide recognition of immunity status through history or antibody status is not evidence-based.”
https://aapsonline.org/rescind-vaccine-mandates-open-letter-to-medical-societies-hospitals-clinics-and-other-healthcare-facilities/

“I feel really confident that if this virus acts like every other virus that we know, once you get infected, get better, clear the virus, then you'll have immunity that will protect you against re-infection." – Dr. Anthony Fauci
https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-really-confident-people-recover-coronavirus-become-immune-infection-1494612

“Policymakers should include natural immunity... as evidence of immunity equal to that of vaccination. That immunity should be given the same societal status as vax-inducted immunity”
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/92836

“Rushing to implement mandatory vax protocols ignores available scientific data, basic principles of immunology and elementary norms... coercive mandates violate basic principles of medical ethics… It is wrong to risk harming healthy people.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/university-vaccine-mandates-violate-medical-ethics-11623689220

“When you get a virus & fight it off, your immune system encodes that info & builds immunity. This is what one would call virology/immunology 101. It’s what you read in every textbook. It’s been taught in 9th-grade cell biology for probably 80 years.”
https://brownstone.org/articles/the-world-health-organization-oversold-the-vaccine-and-deprecated-natural-immunity/

"Natural Infection is the mother of all vaccines." Dr. Anthony Fauci, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

The CDC even provides for some level of acceptance of Natural Immunity when it comes to entering its own facilities...
https://www.cdc.gov/screening/paper-version.pdf

The U.S. Military Health System allows for medical exemptions for existing immunity (e.g., by serologic antibody test, documentation of previous infection or natural infection presumed).
https://www.health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/Health-Readiness/Immunization-Healthcare/Clinical-Consultation-Services/Exemption-Guidance

"it is medically unnecessary to get a Covid-19 vaccine (if you have Natural Immunity) —and it violates medical ethics to order unnecessary procedures.”
https://nclalegal.org/2021/08/george-mason-univ-caves-to-nclas-lawsuit-over-vaccine-mandate-grants-prof-medical-exemption/

"Requiring vax for people with natural immunity has no scientific support... to argue dogmatically that they must get vaccinated has zero clinical outcome data to back it. As a matter of fact, we have data to the contrary."
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/why-covid-19-vaccines-should-not-be-required-for-all-americans

Seeing a counter argument that "natural immunity is variable." So is vax... But besides that... "The immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection."
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/lasting-immunity-found-after-recovery-covid-19#main-content

"Reinfection (for those with natural immunity) was an uncommon event (absolute rate 0%–1.1%), with no study reporting an increase in the risk of reinfection over time."
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rmv.2260

"subjects previously infected with ancestral variant SARS-CoV-2 produce antibodies that cross-neutralize emerging VOCs with high potency." "potent against 23 variants, including variants of concern"
https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abh1766

Post-infection "cellular and humoral immunities are durable *at least* one year after disease onset."
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab884/6381561

Anyone can cherry pick a thousand random studies! 8-)
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#402 » by dckingsfan » Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:33 pm

montestewart wrote:Anyone can cherry pick a thousand random studies! 8-)

Especially when none are longitudinal studies :D

Either way, it shouldn't change policy. Unvaccinated are 10x more likely to be hospitalized and twice as likely to develop long Covid. It is clear that we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated now. Vaccine mandates work - let 'em roll to protect our fragile healthcare system(s).
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#403 » by Kanyewest » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:24 am

The plus side of the vaccine is that you get the antibodies to not get Covid, you actually don't get Covid, you can't spread Covid if you are just vaccinated, and new variants cannot be developed when you are vaccinated as opposed to getting the virus.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#404 » by Kanyewest » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:25 am

While several Western European countries are seeing spikes in infections, it is nations to the East that are driving fatalities. Romania, Bulgaria and the Balkan states recorded some of the highest per-capita death rates in the world in the first week of November, according to the WHO.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-bulgaria-romania-europe-eastern-europe-dacced0323ee03638eb80e757f200fde
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#405 » by nuposse04 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:02 am

I'm in my second year of internal medicine residency in Alabama these days (which kind of helped me ignore last seasons futility)... needless to say... A LOT of people here are anti-vaxxers and mostly it isn't predicated on scientific basis.

As far as what Nate is linking to, Natural Immunity has its' perks in healthy people... however, I think when this is all said and done, we are going to be significantly understating the long term sequela of COVID in all patients (even in said healthy people, seeing them after the fact in the clinic kind of shows how long the climb is for a good portion of these folks, but then again there are a lot of obese people in Alabama so it just may be worse for em down here). A few studies I have read also have commented on the most robust immune response may be infection+ vaccine... however, I don't think I'd advocate for people to simply inoculate themselves to covid... that seems beyond asinine to me. I don't see an overall downside to the Vaccine in the adult population (thankfully I don't see pediatric patients so I can't comment on them). None of what Nate posts really lends to the idea of not getting vaccinated to me either. Especially since the whole point of the vaccines is basically to keep people from dying or severe infection (yes they have breakthrough infections).

Regarding the "Mandate"... I think the real benefit for companies to institute is more so for making sure employees don't have significant disease and miss extended time (and the whole not dying thing). Transmissibility is a point worth debating and is probably going to be studied for some time more.

Anywho, I hope ALL of you are staying safe and healthy through all this. Watching COVID patients die on the vent sucks.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#406 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:07 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
montestewart wrote:Anyone can cherry pick a thousand random studies! 8-)

Especially when none are longitudinal studies :D

Either way, it shouldn't change policy. Unvaccinated are 10x more likely to be hospitalized and twice as likely to develop long Covid. It is clear that we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated now. Vaccine mandates work - let 'em roll to protect our fragile healthcare system(s).

The vaccine is extremely effective at avoiding hospitalization over the first 5 months, but that effectiveness wanes. It's definitely not a 10x improvement at month 5. More like a 4x improvement.

And it absolutely not a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" now. It hasn't been for several months. The U.S. does a lousy job of tracking this, but the UK has the data. The per capita case rates are significantly higher for vaccinated people over age 30 than unvaccinated people over age 30. The death rates for the vaccinated are lower, but not nearly as big of an improvement as you think. Death rates among the unvaccinated are roughly 3 times as high as among the vaccinated.

Image

Again, I'm not saying the vaccines are bad. A 3x improvement on death is definitely a good thing. I'm just saying the vaccines are FAR from a magic bullet and they're not worth the risk for the young and healthy, and particularly not for the young and healthy who already have natural immunity. Forcing them to get the vaccine is unethical and does nothing to help society at large because the vaccinated are actually catching and spreading Covid at a rate HIGHER than the unvaccinated.

That said, we should definitely try and convince the elderly and comorbid to be vaccinated. There is clearly a massive reduction in death risk.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#407 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:21 pm

Your risk as a vaccinated person is still proportional to the level of transmission in the community.

That risk is still proportional to the level of vaccination in a community.

There is both waning immunity for natural infections and the vaccinated - we don't know what that is and won't until there are some longitudinal studies (my guess - everyone will need boosters, vaccinated and unvaccinated - seems like the Biden administration seems to have this one right).

Vaccinations have proved to reduce the load on the hospitals (more than any other single factor) - if you want to go with 5x less instead of 10x less. Fine (although I doubt this will age well).

Either way, the policies should stay in place including the vaccine mandates, from a policy perspective it is a big duh.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#408 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:43 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Your risk as a vaccinated person is still proportional to the level of transmission in the community.

That risk is still proportional to the level of vaccination in a community.

This is absolutely FALSE. We are never going to get anywhere in this debate until you acknowledge this. The vaccines are NOT stopping the spread of the virus. In the UK and Israel, the vaccinated have a HIGHER case rate (per capita) than the unvaccinated. You can also look at the case rates in virtually any country and you will see a massive jump in cases in the first two months after vaccines are introduced. The data is clear on this.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#409 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 2:55 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Your risk as a vaccinated person is still proportional to the level of transmission in the community.

That risk is still proportional to the level of vaccination in a community.

This is absolutely FALSE. We are never going to get anywhere in this debate until you acknowledge this. The vaccines are NOT stopping the spread of the virus. In the UK and Israel, the vaccinated have a HIGHER case rate (per capita) than the unvaccinated. You can also look at the case rates in virtually any country and you will see a massive jump in cases in the first two months after vaccines are introduced. The data is clear on this.

Of course it is... if you want to add vaccination and natural immunity fine. Those that are vaccinated spread Covid at a lower level and for a shorter amount of time. Add to that, being vaccinated cuts your risk of long haul Covid in half.



What you aren't adding into the equation is that they lifted all the social distancing and mask mandates.

Either way, back to the point. The vaccine mandates work at getting folks vaccinated. And vaccines work at reducing the load on our hospital system. There should be no policy changes.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#410 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:00 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Your risk as a vaccinated person is still proportional to the level of transmission in the community.

That risk is still proportional to the level of vaccination in a community.

This is absolutely FALSE. We are never going to get anywhere in this debate until you acknowledge this. The vaccines are NOT stopping the spread of the virus. In the UK and Israel, the vaccinated have a HIGHER case rate (per capita) than the unvaccinated. You can also look at the case rates in virtually any country and you will see a massive jump in cases in the first two months after vaccines are introduced. The data is clear on this.

Of course it is... if you want to add vaccination and natural immunity fine. Those that are vaccinated spread Covid at a lower level and for a shorter amount of time.

What you aren't adding into the equation is that they lifted all the social distancing and mask mandates.

Either way, back to the point. The vaccine mandates work at getting folks vaccinated. And vaccines work at reducing the load on our hospital system. There should be no policy changes.


Vaccinating healthy people under 50 does VERY little at reducing the load on hospital system. Vaccinating naturally immune people does nothing to reduce the load on our hospital system. It does set a pretty terrifying precedent on human rights though. If reducing the load on the hospital system is the only justification, then we can mandate all kinds of healthy activity and ban all kinds of unhealthy activity at a whim.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#411 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:04 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Those that are vaccinated spread Covid at a lower level and for a shorter amount of time.

Again. This is FALSE. I just posted the data to prove it. Stop basing your arguments on falsehoods.


dckingsfan wrote:Add to that, being vaccinated cuts your risk of long haul Covid in half.

Long Covid isn't real. People who mistakenly believed they had Covid (but had no antibodies) report long Covid symptoms at the same rate as people who had Covid. The one exception is loss of smell. That can last a fairly long time.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2785832
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#412 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:07 pm

nate33 wrote:Vaccinating healthy people under 50 does VERY little at reducing the load on hospital system. Vaccinating naturally immune people does nothing to reduce the load on our hospital system.

Of course vaccinating everyone reduces the load on the hospital systems.

We know that because as older folks were vaccinated the percentage and raw numbers of those under 50 became a larger burden on the healthcare system. Why? Delta. If you were back in the Alpha days you might be able to make that argument.

The smart move in terms of public policy is to get everyone vaccinated. Public policy shouldn't change on this.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#413 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:13 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:Vaccinating healthy people under 50 does VERY little at reducing the load on hospital system. Vaccinating naturally immune people does nothing to reduce the load on our hospital system.

Of course vaccinating everyone reduces the load on the hospital systems.

We know that because as older folks were vaccinated the percentage and raw numbers of those under 50 became a larger burden on the healthcare system. Why? Delta. If you were back in the Alpha days you might be able to make that argument.

The smart move in terms of public policy is to get everyone vaccinated. Public policy shouldn't change on this.

Those were mostly people with severe comorbidities, whom I fully endorse getting vaccinated. But if you are under 50 and healthy, your hospitalization risk for Covid is very, very low.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#414 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:32 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:Vaccinating healthy people under 50 does VERY little at reducing the load on hospital system. Vaccinating naturally immune people does nothing to reduce the load on our hospital system.

Of course vaccinating everyone reduces the load on the hospital systems.

We know that because as older folks were vaccinated the percentage and raw numbers of those under 50 became a larger burden on the healthcare system. Why? Delta. If you were back in the Alpha days you might be able to make that argument.

The smart move in terms of public policy is to get everyone vaccinated. Public policy shouldn't change on this.

Those were mostly people with severe comorbidities, whom I fully endorse getting vaccinated. But if you are under 50 and healthy, your hospitalization risk for Covid is very, very low.

They don't have to be "high" to overwhelm your hospital systems. Hospitalizations of people under the age of 50 with Covid-19 are were at their highest levels during the Delta surge (again, you argument might hold weight with Alpha but not Delta). And the vast majority of Americans being hospitalized are unvaccinated.

Anecdotal: There was a 9 hour wait at the local ER during this most recent surge. The ER doc who lives next to me said a majority were under 50 and the majority of them didn't have comorbidities (i.e. they weren't obese). He said it surprised many of them they said, "I am healthy, I wasn't supposed to get hospitalized for Covid".
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#415 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:34 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Of course vaccinating everyone reduces the load on the hospital systems.

We know that because as older folks were vaccinated the percentage and raw numbers of those under 50 became a larger burden on the healthcare system. Why? Delta. If you were back in the Alpha days you might be able to make that argument.

The smart move in terms of public policy is to get everyone vaccinated. Public policy shouldn't change on this.

Those were mostly people with severe comorbidities, whom I fully endorse getting vaccinated. But if you are under 50 and healthy, your hospitalization risk for Covid is very, very low.

They don't have to be "high" to overwhelm your hospital systems. Hospitalizations of people under the age of 50 with Covid-19 are were at their highest levels during the Delta surge (again, you argument might hold weight with Alpha but not Delta). And the vast majority of Americans being hospitalized are unvaccinated.

Anecdotal: There was a 9 hour wait at the local ER during this most recent surge. The ER doc who lives next to me said a majority were under 50 and the majority of them didn't have comorbidities (i.e. they weren't obese). He said it surprised many of them they said, "I am healthy, I wasn't supposed to get hospitalized for Covid".

Yeah. Anecdotal.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#416 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:37 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:Those were mostly people with severe comorbidities, whom I fully endorse getting vaccinated. But if you are under 50 and healthy, your hospitalization risk for Covid is very, very low.

They don't have to be "high" to overwhelm your hospital systems. Hospitalizations of people under the age of 50 with Covid-19 are were at their highest levels during the Delta surge (again, you argument might hold weight with Alpha but not Delta). And the vast majority of Americans being hospitalized are unvaccinated.

Anecdotal: There was a 9 hour wait at the local ER during this most recent surge. The ER doc who lives next to me said a majority were under 50 and the majority of them didn't have comorbidities (i.e. they weren't obese). He said it surprised many of them they said, "I am healthy, I wasn't supposed to get hospitalized for Covid".

Yeah. Anecdotal.

The first paragraph isn't. The second paragraph which is has happened across the country resulting in deaths of both those with and without Covid. When that happens it is time for public policy.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#417 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 3:50 pm

The anecdotal part is the part about most of the hospitalizations being healthy.

And if we were really concerned about hospitalizations, we wouldn't be enacting policies that result in medical staff being fired from their jobs and hospital capacity being savagely curtailed.

Mandating vaccines that are 100 times more dangerous than any vaccines in the past is immoral, particularly when they aren't really vaccines by any classical definition of the word and can better characterized as therapeutics since they have a temporary effect and they do nothing to inhibit spread.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#418 » by dckingsfan » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:00 pm

nate33 wrote:The anecdotal part is the part about most of the hospitalizations being healthy.

And if we were really concerned about hospitalizations, we wouldn't be enacting policies that result in medical staff being fired from their jobs and hospital capacity being savagely curtailed.

Mandating vaccines that are 100 times more dangerous than any vaccines in the past is immoral, particularly when they aren't really vaccines by any classical definition of the word and can better characterized as therapeutics since they have a temporary effect and they do nothing to inhibit spread.

Links? I think you will find these to be less than true. I will leave this thread now...
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#419 » by nate33 » Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:02 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:The anecdotal part is the part about most of the hospitalizations being healthy.

And if we were really concerned about hospitalizations, we wouldn't be enacting policies that result in medical staff being fired from their jobs and hospital capacity being savagely curtailed.

Mandating vaccines that are 100 times more dangerous than any vaccines in the past is immoral, particularly when they aren't really vaccines by any classical definition of the word and can better characterized as therapeutics since they have a temporary effect and they do nothing to inhibit spread.

Links? I think you will find these to be less than true. I will leave this thread now...

The 100 times number is from VAERS. The not inhibiting spread is from the data I posted earlier from the UK showing the vaccinated having a significantly higher case rate (per capita) than the unvaccinated.
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Re: Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread 

Post#420 » by nuposse04 » Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:44 am

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:The anecdotal part is the part about most of the hospitalizations being healthy.

And if we were really concerned about hospitalizations, we wouldn't be enacting policies that result in medical staff being fired from their jobs and hospital capacity being savagely curtailed.

Mandating vaccines that are 100 times more dangerous than any vaccines in the past is immoral, particularly when they aren't really vaccines by any classical definition of the word and can better characterized as therapeutics since they have a temporary effect and they do nothing to inhibit spread.

Links? I think you will find these to be less than true. I will leave this thread now...

The 100 times number is from VAERS. The not inhibiting spread is from the data I posted earlier from the UK showing the vaccinated having a significantly higher case rate (per capita) than the unvaccinated.


IIRC, VAERS is a self reported database, thus there is some obvious flaws in drawing ANY conclusions from there.

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