2021-22 Offseason Thread

[polo007]

What the market's early days reveal about Blue Jays’ off-season script - Sportsnet.ca

What we know of the Blue Jays’ script so far is this: They made a strong offer for Andrew Heaney, according to an industry source, before the left-hander agreed on an $8-million, one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and discussed an extension with Matz.

An intriguing question is whether a yes from one would have cut them off to the other, and that would be especially instructive about their intentions for the rotation. They’ll have to backfill for Ray and Matz if neither returns, making two starters a clear need, but successful upside plays akin to the ones both lefties provided in 2021 are essential for them.

Atkins met with Matz’s representatives Tuesday and as Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote here, the lefty was expected to arrive in Carlsbad to meet with interested clubs.

As a more established commodity than Heaney, Matz will get more term and a bigger number in average annual value, but adding both wouldn’t have precluded the Blue Jays from trying to land an impact player, as well.

The guess here is that the ideal target for them in that regard is Corey Seager, a dynamic left-handed hitter who could slide over to another infield spot the way Marcus Semien did last year.

But that market isn’t likely to play out any time soon – few, if any, impact free agents are expected to sign before the imminent lockout once the CBA expires Dec. 1 – so it could be a long while before the direction of their suite of moves is fully known.

Should they land an impact position player, that will make the need for them to land a top-flight starter via trade all the more acute, and the Reds, Athletics and perhaps Miami Marlins all have some to offer.

Between big-league roster surplus in the outfield and at catcher, farm-system depth (chill, Gabriel Moreno isn’t going anywhere) and payroll room, they’ll, in Atkins’ words, “have opportunities to make our team better.”

• One thing to watch for with the Blue Jays is how they structure any longer-term contracts they dish out, especially in 2023. As things stand, their financial flexibility next off-season is something they’ll need to manage around, since right now they won’t have any major money coming off the books and will need to accommodate Bo Bichette’s first time through arbitration, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s second time through, Teoscar Hernadez’s final turn before free agency and a potential bump for Jose Berrios, should he be extended. The pressure eases after 2023 when roughly $36 million in guarantees to Hyun-Jin Ryu, Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., comes off the books, with whatever Hernandez earns also getting erased. All of which puts extra pressure on any multi-year deal they sign this winter, since they may not have as much room to manoeuvre next off-season.

• The Blue Jays are expected to get a payroll hike approved later this week by parent company Rogers Communications Inc. (which also owns this website). Their planning was largely unaffected during the fight for control of the company, which was settled Friday when B.C. Supreme Court Justice Shelley Fitzpatrick ruled chairman Edward Rogers had the authority to replace board members through a written resolution, and the company said it would not appeal. He’s also the Blue Jays chair and a prime internal advocate for the club, and though the court case created uncertainty, the team is such a tiny portion of the overall business it wasn’t likely to be impacted.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Baseball's proposal to base arb year salaries on fWAR is really interesting. I'm curious whether it would fluctuate up and down, or continually increase as arb does.

[polo007]

Blue Jays notebook: Staying in touch with Semien and Ray, assessing infield options - TSN.ca

CARLSBAD, Calif. — It surprises nobody that Ross Atkins left the picturesque GM meetings host resort just outside San Diego on Thursday afternoon with the same roster holes he entered the week with.

At this early stage of the off-season, it’s all about information gathering rather than executing, and the first in-person meetings of these kind since 2019 have started to reveal the true intentions of a handful of teams.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Oakland A’s are sellers.

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers are buyers.

And there seems to be a much larger group of owners willing to spend this winter compared to a year ago in the thick of the pandemic.

All of it will affect what Atkins and his Toronto Blue Jays front office is trying to do in various ways.

There’s no secret where the Jays sit: They’re win-now buyers with money to spend once again.

Rotation impact, infield reinforcements and bullpen depth are all needed between now and February.

Figuring out exactly who they are after and the tricky blueprint needed to get all that done is another story.

Atkins is playing multiple hands at a time, the same as 29 other general managers.

“It’s a matter of thinking about whether it’s more complementary or a free agent or a trade of some significant impact,” Atkins said. “We’re also in a position where we have to consider if there are ways that other teams are valuing certain areas of our club that could help us round out the team in a different way. That’s why these meetings are so helpful and so important in expediting a lot of that information for us.”

The general sense this week in California is that the top end of the free-agent market won’t have much movement until the CBA is figured out, but that doesn’t necessarily mean a handful of deals won’t happen.

There will surely be a handful of players seeking some certainty and deem an offer too good to pass up this month.

“There are always things we can act on and I wouldn’t be surprised if teams are close right now,” Atkins said Thursday before boarding a flight back to Toronto. “There are things that we could clearly push forward but still have a lot of opportunities and different things to consider where we don’t have something imminent.”

RULE 5 DEADLINE COMING

Clubs have until next Friday to add eligible players to the 40-man roster or risk losing them in next month’s Rule 5 draft.

The Jays have some interesting decisions to make on some low-level names.

Using my 2021 top 50 Jays prospects list as a guide the most important names who need to be added are infielder Miguel Hiraldo (No. 9), right-hander Joey Murray (No. 17), shortstop Leo Jimenez (No. 20) and Brazilian righty Eric Pardinho (No. 23).

Jimenez, a true shortstop, seems like the best bet.

There’s also Triple-A starters Zach Logue and Bowden Francis, who was acquired in the deal that sent Rowdy Tellez to the Milwaukee Brewers, versatile speedster Samad Taylor (No. 38) as well as interesting low-level arms like Roither Hernandez (No. 41), Naswell Paulino (No. 42) and Alejandro Melean (No. 43).

Only a couple of these names will be added to the Jays’ 40-man, but you can expect to see a flurry of minor moves league-wide next Friday.

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[Parataxis]

I love it. Solves a solid chunk of our upper rotation for most of the rest of the decade at a price that's just going to keep seeming cheaper as time goes on. QO-level annual amount for a pitcher who certainly would have been given a QO next year anyhow.

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[ItsDanger]

For me, a big problem for the Jays is figuring out what they have in Nate Pearson. Is he a 4th or 5th starter? Swingman? Bullpen? Trade bait? I think he's 25 now, 2022 season is make or break for him. If they knew he could slot into back of rotation, then would make a lot of other moves easier.

[JTT]

For me, a big problem for the Jays is figuring out what they have in Nate Pearson. Is he a 4th or 5th starter? Swingman? Bullpen? Trade bait? I think he's 25 now, 2022 season is make or break for him. If they knew he could slot into back of rotation, then would make a lot of other moves easier.

Think of him as a lottery prize. If he turns out, it could very well be what pushes the Jays over the edge.

[ItsDanger]

If Corey Seager is willing to play 3rd, he'd be a good fit in the lineup. Left handed and more upside especially in the middle of our top 4 hitters.

[ItsDanger]

Jon Gray would be my target if trades don't work out with Miami and we don't re-sign Ray or Matz. If the price is right though. Walker could make him better.

[JTT]

If Corey Seager is willing to play 3rd, he'd be a good fit in the lineup. Left handed and more upside especially in the middle of our top 4 hitters.

I’m still having a hard time understanding how the Jays can afford someone like Seager long term and what the ramifications might be for a Teoscar extension in particular but also Bo and Vladdy. It seemingly would have to mean using either Teoscar or Lourdes in a trade so that we could kick some further extensions down the road. The problem with that is that we have zero minor league outfield depth.

[ItsDanger]

If Corey Seager is willing to play 3rd, he'd be a good fit in the lineup. Left handed and more upside especially in the middle of our top 4 hitters.

I’m still having a hard time understanding how the Jays can afford someone like Seager long term and what the ramifications might be for a Teoscar extension in particular but also Bo and Vladdy. It seemingly would have to mean using either Teoscar or Lourdes in a trade so that we could kick some further extensions down the road. The problem with that is that we have zero minor league outfield depth.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/

Does arbitration estimates for 1 year forward. Not sure if there are better ones out there. WOuld be useful to project beyond 2022. Also depends on Rogers budget which I would guess is around $150M. They rake in tons of money just over cable/satellite. Book it. I think Teoscar & Vladdy are the immediate arbitration concerns. Not an expert on this angle so not sure if 3 year deals for free agency may be better to cover the big 3 arb players.

[JTT]

Beyond 2022 is what matters most. We can afford one and two year contracts right now but if we’re giving more, for other than pitchers, I think there should be a concern that it would affect our ability to extend our younger guys. We’re also starting to be in a position where we need to think about cheap talent to fill in around our stars in three years.

[bluerap23]

Beyond 2022 is what matters most. We can afford one and two year contracts right now but if we’re giving more, for other than pitchers, I think there should be a concern that it would affect our ability to extend our younger guys. We’re also starting to be in a position where we need to think about cheap talent to fill in around our stars in three years.

I actually think this is why they are considering moving Moreno to the infield. We have to have some guys that are not being paid astronomically that are able to contribute to the offence. Trading Kirk for a comparable hitter at another position is an option, but it may not be possible. So having Kirk and Moreno in the lineup at pre-arb may allow us to juggle.

[JTT]

Beyond 2022 is what matters most. We can afford one and two year contracts right now but if we’re giving more, for other than pitchers, I think there should be a concern that it would affect our ability to extend our younger guys. We’re also starting to be in a position where we need to think about cheap talent to fill in around our stars in three years.

I actually think this is why they are considering moving Moreno to the infield. We have to have some guys that are not being paid astronomically that are able to contribute to the offence. Trading Kirk for a comparable hitter at another position is an option, but it may not be possible. So having Kirk and Moreno in the lineup at pre-arb may allow us to juggle.

I do as well, although using Moreno at a less valuable position is tough too. Still hoping for a trade with someone like Miami to trade our controllable catching/infield assets for their controllable pitching ones.

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