What's worse for the defense, an open layup or a wide open Steph Curry 3PA?

[rand]

Assume the layup is made 100% of the time. Would you rather give up an open layup or an uncontested Curry three point attempt?

[Peregrine01]

Still think it's the lay-up. Curry would need to shoot 67% on wide-open 3s to make this equivalent, which isn't really a given because of lots of variables.

[lambchop]

I'd rather give up the layup because the Curry 3 will help him to gain rhythm and he might go on a 12 point run with dishes here and there to his teammates, which could mean 16 quick points for his team.
The layup will happen every now and then, but is nothing to be concerned about.

[cupcakesnake]

This season, Curry is shooting 42% on wide-open 3s.

A 42% look at 3 points or a "99%" at 2 points. You do the math!

[Dutchball97]

According to nba.com Curry has made 42% of his wide open 3s this year. So the lay-up generates 2 points per possession, while a wide open Curry 3 is 1.26 ppp. This isn't really a contest.

[jk31]

easy answer, as NBA.com gives us the needed numbers:

100 % on wide open layups gives us 2.00 Points per possession.
Steph Curry shoots 42 % on wide open 3 point attempts this season, which gives 1.26 points per possession.

So is this really a question? Would you rather have an opponent score 2 points or 1.3 points?


(source for currys shooting: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CloseDefDistRange=6%2B%20Feet%20-%20Wide%20Open&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*Stephen%20Curry:PLAYER_NAME*E*)

[rand]

This season, Curry is shooting 42% on wide-open 3s.

A 42% look at 3 points or a "99%" at 2 points. You do the math!

Yeah I see those stats but they're counting shooters who have defenders closing from more than 6 ft away as "wide open" but I mean no contest at all, like Curry's at the 3 pt line with the ball and no one is closing out. He does get these true warmup shots occasionally in games but I don't know what he shoots on them. Maybe it's still under 50% but I doubt it.

Also, does that include all distances? Because we're talking about a 23'9" shot not a wide open 35 footer.

[Peregrine01]

This season, Curry is shooting 42% on wide-open 3s.

A 42% look at 3 points or a "99%" at 2 points. You do the math!

I doubt a lot of those are wide open though. I don't see Curry shooting many 3s with no one around him at all, which is what this question is asking.

[mynameKIM]

Im calling bs on Curry only hitting 42% of his wide open 3s.

[mynameKIM]

This season, Curry is shooting 42% on wide-open 3s.

A 42% look at 3 points or a "99%" at 2 points. You do the math!

Yeah I see those stats but they're counting shooters who have defenders closing from more than 6 ft away as "wide open" but I mean no contest at all, like Curry's at the 3 pt line with the ball and no one is closing out. He does get these true warmup shots occasionally in games but I don't know what he shoots on them. Maybe it's still under 50% but I doubt it.

The thing is these official NBA stats are still very subjective because it relies on human beings to input data.

Look no further than this Ricky Rubio "reverse dunk" from last year. https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022001033&PlayerID=201937&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game&CF=ACTION_TYPE*E*Reverse%20Dunk%20Shot

They need to hire people who can see first and foremost.

[ellobo]

Im calling bs on Curry only hitting 42% of his wide open 3s.

Those nba.com stats also say he's averaging 3.6 wide open threes per game with no one within 6ft. That seems highly implausible.

[art_tatum]

Im calling bs on Curry only hitting 42% of his wide open 3s.

Those nba.com stats also say he's averaging 3.6 wide open threes per game with no one within 6ft. That seems highly implausible.

The season is also very young so imo we should look. At last year's open 3 percentage or when he was at his best a few years ago to see if he can even come close to 66%
Edit- what i found was that Steph sucks at open 3s, recent highs of 53% but averaging around 45-48%

Crazy lol that his overall average with defenders draped is like 43% so open 3s aren't helping his avg that much

[Laimbeer]

Im calling bs on Curry only hitting 42% of his wide open 3s.

Yeah, he's hitting 40.4% overall.

No defender within six feet is different than being able to stand at the line truly "wide open"

[cupcakesnake]

This season, Curry is shooting 42% on wide-open 3s.

A 42% look at 3 points or a "99%" at 2 points. You do the math!

Yeah I see those stats but they're counting shooters who have defenders closing from more than 6 ft away as "wide open" but I mean no contest at all, like Curry's at the 3 pt line with the ball and no one is closing out. He does get these true warmup shots occasionally in games but I don't know what he shoots on them. Maybe it's still under 50% but I doubt it.

Also, does that include all distances? Because we're talking about a 23'9" shot not a wide open 35 footer.

Considering the NBA half court is 47x50 feet and has 10 players on the court, being 6 feet seems wide open enough to me. Can't contest from 6 feet, though I'm not sure if they base that on where the defenders feet are at the beginning of the shot, or whether a close out affects that distance. 6 feet is wide open if Fred VanVleet is guarding you, but not so much if it's Chris Boucher.

Like someone else said, he'd have to hit over 65%. Unless I have some statistical indication that he's hitting them at that clip, the near guarantee of 2-points is an easy choice.

[Sedale Threatt]

Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time. And he’s not coming anywhere close to 65% on wide open 3s.

[jk31]

Im calling bs on Curry only hitting 42% of his wide open 3s.

Those nba.com stats also say he's averaging 3.6 wide open threes per game with no one within 6ft. That seems highly implausible.

The season is also very young so imo we should look. At last year's open 3 percentage or when he was at his best a few years ago to see if he can even come close to 66%
Edit- what i found was that Steph sucks at open 3s, recent highs of 53% but averaging around 45-48%

Crazy lol that his overall average with defenders draped is like 43% so open 3s aren't helping his avg that much

Please set aside your NBA 2k logic. No player shoots or has ever shot significantly more than 50 % on wide open 3s. Steph Curry does not "suck" at wide open threes.

[G35]

Dunks and layups are the worst things for a defense. It means that your whole defense is compromised when you are allowing a layup/dunk. When you give up 3's...even wide open three's it could mean a number of things:
- someone was slow on the rotation
- the offense was just better on that possession
- Curry is in a zone and you cannot stop him

But with a wide open layup, there are no excuses...there is a clear mistake when giving up open layups which are 99.9% going to go in.....

[Lockdown504090]

im not giving curry open shots. he can be frustrated when he has to get a bunch of tough looks, and when hes getting good looks it gives him all time shot making ability later in the game.

[CS707]

Assuming a lot of the defined wide open shots are from well beyond the line. Giving him a completely uncontested shot from a more reasonable range and he’s going to hit well over 42%. There are videos of him making 100 plus consecutively in practice.

[picc]

Cmon. The only reason this is even a question is because people are so sensationalist. One has basically a 100% chance of scoring two points. No matter what the alternative is, its better.