2021-22 Offseason Thread

polo007 · Post #61 » by **polo007** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:25 am

What José Berríos' extension means for the Blue Jays, their rotation and their offseason plans - The Athletic

Along with improving their pitching and lineup construction this offseason, the Blue Jays had been intent on sewing up deals for some of their own players in an effort to both continue to foster a long-term winning atmosphere and also create some payroll certainty for the future. With Berríos done, the focus will now shift to guys like Guerrero, Teoscar Hernández and Bo Bichette, though there is more time to figure out those deals.

But what does signing Berríos mean for more moves this offseason? At an average annual salary of $20 million from 2023 onward, the deal shouldn’t prohibit the Blue Jays from making other major signings or trades this offseason. With Berríos’ $11 million on the books for next season, the team’s projected payroll is about $115 million, per Roster Resource. In 2023, they’ll have about $80 million in guaranteed contracts, and only George Springer and Berríos are on guaranteed deals from 2024 and beyond.

So this shouldn’t interfere with the club’s ability to sign Ray, Marcus Semien or any other free agent they’re targeting. In fact, extending Berríos further underlines the team’s commitment to winning, which can be persuasive to prospective free agents.

Ideally, the Blue Jays acquire two starters, whether it’s bringing back Ray and Steven Matz or pitchers who are comparable to them. But by guaranteeing Berríos is sticking around beyond next season, it gives the Blue Jays some flexibility to explore at least one shorter-term deal for a starter this winter or alternatively trade for a one-year rental. Of the starters on their roster, only Ross Stripling will be heading to free agency after next season, as it stands now.

When the Blue Jays traded for Berríos at the trade deadline in July, it signalled the front office was intent on building a winning ball club. The fact that Berríos has signed on for seven more years, doing so before testing free agency, suggests he believes in their long-term vision, too. There is a lot more work needed to improve the roster this winter, but this deal is a good start — and perhaps could be a positive omen of what’s to come.

polo007 · Post #62 » by **polo007** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:18 pm

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Post #63 » by **Duffman100** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:18 pm

I have a feeling we're not going to resign Ray. Adding Verlander to a rotation and run with Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Verlander and...

bluerap23 · Post #64 » by **bluerap23** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 8:23 pm

Duffman100 wrote:I have a feeling we're not going to resign Ray. Adding Verlander to a rotation and run with Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Verlander and...

That's ok as long as the and... is someone that is a top of the rotation arm. Can't be and.... Ross Stripling....

JTT · Post #65 » by **JTT** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:39 pm

Replacing Ray with Verlander makes a lot of sense. It'll be a shorter contract and at the same time hopefully allow us to still compete while some younger arms get closer to the big leagues.

Mehar · Post #66 » by **Mehar** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 9:56 pm

I would rather replace Ray with Verlander, due to the huge contract Ray is asking (rightfully so) as a CY Young winner. I read a report last week on Twitter, that Ray's agent has floated 5 years 100 million as the starting point. I am not comfortable with a large commitment to Ray, based on one truly exceptional year. I would have to let him walk.

polo007 · Post #67 » by **polo007** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:45 pm

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polo007 · Post #68 » by **polo007** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:47 pm

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polo007 · Post #69 » by **polo007** » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:57 pm

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polo007 · Post #70 » by **polo007** » Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:21 am

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polo007 · Post #71 » by **polo007** » Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:21 am

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polo007 · Post #72 » by **polo007** » Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:57 pm

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agkagk · Post #73 » by **agkagk** » Thu Nov 18, 2021 7:19 pm

Duffman100 wrote:I have a feeling we're not going to resign Ray. Adding Verlander to a rotation and run with Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Verlander and...

not a big fan of paying for his career year.

its a perfect storm of "NOPE"

older pitcher.
coming off career year.
max effort guy.
basically a 2 pitch guy.
not the strongest market for free agent starting pitching.

checks off every box for a bad contract.

ryu - berrios - manoah - stripling is enough of a start where we can go "dumpster dive" for the next matz and stripling types to round out the rotation.

Personally, I hope Pearson still has enough perceived value where we can pass him off to a team in a trade for another mid rotation guy.

Save the money for a trevor story type and resigning teoscar.

polo007 · Post #74 » by **polo007** » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:39 pm

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Post #75 » by **Schad** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:04 am

The bigger news in a 10 year, $150-200m deal for Wander: I'd expect significant changes to the arb structure if the Rays are willing to offer that. Wander's not going to reach FA until six more seasons have passed, and still has three more pre-arb years as he's unlikely to reach Super 2 status. Under the current system, that means three seasons where he makes a combined $2m-ish, and a further three in arb.

Even using Mookie Betts' record three-year arb awards +20%, that would mean just $60m for six years of Franco, which in turn would mean they were buying out 4 years at between $90m and $140m...a bit (but not much) below market at the low end, and full freight at the high end. That's possible, but seems fairly unlikely given how cost-conscious the Rays are. However, if you believe that the new arb system will lead to escalating salaries for star players at the front end of their arb years, you could be looking at teams paying closer to full market value in service years 4 and 5, at which point you're effectively buying out the FA years for a lower AAV.

Given that it's the Rays that we're talking about, and given that Franco's camp didn't immediately bite, I presume they're expecting significant changes; they generally don't hand out full market value for 10 years, even for a budding superstar. And that's probably a good thing, because underpaying players during their prime and overpaying them as they age out of it is silly. But it's also likely to drastically alter the landscape, because the whole of baseball's financial ecosystem is based on underpaying players in their prime at this point.

C Court · Post #76 » by **C Court** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:30 am

Anyone know why Josh Donaldson is spending this off-season in the GTA?

Tonight he's at the Leafs game and recently he was at a sports store in Newmarket.

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Ong_dynasty · Post #77 » by **Ong_dynasty** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:20 pm

Also saw him at real sports bar.
He coming home. Lol

polo007 · Post #78 » by **polo007** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 7:16 pm

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polo007 · Post #79 » by **polo007** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:05 pm

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Lateral Quicks · Post #80 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:42 pm

Looks like Matz isn't flying under the radar like I had hoped he might. He won't come cheap, but as long as the AAV isn't too berserk I'd still like him back on 3 year deal.

I agree, don't buy high on Ray or Semien. I think Ray's contract will prove bad value. Semien, I'm not so sure, but it's still awfully risky given his on again, off again career to date.