Is RJ Barrett a beast?

[3toheadmelo]

send that boy to the Pelicans for their pick if they’re dumb enough to do it

[Chanel Bomber]

I don't think RJ is a bust. I like a lot of things that he brings to the table, and I love his character, so I hope that things pan out in a way that he stays here long-term.

But sometimes you reach an inflection point in your thinking where your opinion tilts in another direction.

I can't be critical of Randle's game (or rather of the Knicks' trust in Randle) for being inefficient and thus putting a ceiling on the team, when RJ is even less efficient thank Randle in a lesser role (which is why I mentioned both Randle and RJ in the same paragraph in my last piece @melo).

I checked the adjusted TS% of the successful players he was most often compared to since he got drafted. With 100 being league-average in TS%, here's how they fared in their first three seasons:

Kawhi
109
111
111

Jimmy Butler
100
107
96 (then immediately followed by 109)

Middleton
100
100
105

Harden
101
110
125

RJ
85
94
91

It's frankly sobering. Great players generally show signs they're gonna be great early. RJ simply hasn't. Right now, he's an inefficient 3&D guy who doesn't play good defense - it's simply not good enough. I think a more reasonable ceiling now is probably Caron Butler, if I had to make a comp (I don't).

RJ and Randle are two of the reasons why the starting line-up seems to have this glass ceiling, can't get easy shots, and still have teams deploying a zone against us - it's why it doesn't matter that they added more shooting. The guys we thought needed help are actually part of the problem. RJ is just less salient because he's on a rookie contract, and he's young so there's still hope he can make "the leap".

[Sark]

I don't think RJ is a bust. I like a lot of things that he brings to the table, and I love his character, so I hope that things pan out in a way that he stays here long-term.

But sometimes you reach an inflection point in your thinking where your opinion tilts in another direction.

I can't be critical of Randle's game (or rather the Knicks' trust in Randle) for being inefficient and thus putting a ceiling on the team, when RJ is even less efficient thank Randle in a lesser role (which is why I mentioned both Randle and RJ in the same paragraph in my last piece @melo).

I checked the adjusted TS% of the successful players he was most often compared to since he got drafted. With 100 being league-average in TS%, here's how they fared in their first three seasons:

Kawhi
109
111
111

Jimmy Butler
100
107
96 (then immediately followed by 109)

Middleton
100
100
105

Harden
101
110
125

RJ
85
94
91

It's frankly sobering. Great players generally show signs they're gonna be great early. RJ simply hasn't. Right now, he's an inefficient 3&D guy who doesn't play good defense - it's simply not good enough. I think a more reasonable ceiling now is probably Caron Butler, if I had to make a comp (I don't).

RJ and Randle are two of the reasons why the starting line-up seems to have this glass ceiling, can't get easy shots, and still have teams deploying a zone against us - it's why it doesn't matter that they added more shooting. The guys we thought needed help are actually part of the problem. RJ is just less salient because he's on a rookie contract, and he's young so there's still hope he can make "the leap".

I agree with everything you're saying here, but in fairness to RJ he entered the league at a younger age than these guys.

He's definitely on track to NOT being a star, but he deserves a little more time before we make that conclusion.

[DaGawd]

I don't think RJ is a bust. I like a lot of things that he brings to the table, and I love his character, so I hope that things pan out in a way that he stays here long-term.

But sometimes you reach an inflection point in your thinking where your opinion tilts in another direction.

I can't be critical of Randle's game (or rather the Knicks' trust in Randle) for being inefficient and thus putting a ceiling on the team, when RJ is even less efficient thank Randle in a lesser role (which is why I mentioned both Randle and RJ in the same paragraph in my last piece @melo).

I checked the adjusted TS% of the successful players he was most often compared to since he got drafted. With 100 being league-average in TS%, here's how they fared in their first three seasons:

Kawhi
109
111
111

Jimmy Butler
100
107
96 (then immediately followed by 109)

Middleton
100
100
105

Harden
101
110
125

RJ
85
94
91

It's frankly sobering. Great players generally show signs they're gonna be great early. RJ simply hasn't. Right now, he's an inefficient 3&D guy who doesn't play good defense - it's simply not good enough. I think a more reasonable ceiling now is probably Caron Butler, if I had to make a comp (I don't).

RJ and Randle are two of the reasons why the starting line-up seems to have this glass ceiling, can't get easy shots, and still have teams deploying a zone against us - it's why it doesn't matter that they added more shooting. The guys we thought needed help are actually part of the problem. RJ is just less salient because he's on a rookie contract, and he's young so there's still hope he can make "the leap".

Excellent post. RJ the person is great. Love his character.. but for a team like us starving for the star cornerstone.. it’s time for folks to admit he’s not likely to be it

[Chanel Bomber]

I don't think RJ is a bust. I like a lot of things that he brings to the table, and I love his character, so I hope that things pan out in a way that he stays here long-term.

But sometimes you reach an inflection point in your thinking where your opinion tilts in another direction.

I can't be critical of Randle's game (or rather the Knicks' trust in Randle) for being inefficient and thus putting a ceiling on the team, when RJ is even less efficient thank Randle in a lesser role (which is why I mentioned both Randle and RJ in the same paragraph in my last piece @melo).

I checked the adjusted TS% of the successful players he was most often compared to since he got drafted. With 100 being league-average in TS%, here's how they fared in their first three seasons:

Kawhi
109
111
111

Jimmy Butler
100
107
96 (then immediately followed by 109)

Middleton
100
100
105

Harden
101
110
125

RJ
85
94
91

It's frankly sobering. Great players generally show signs they're gonna be great early. RJ simply hasn't. Right now, he's an inefficient 3&D guy who doesn't play good defense - it's simply not good enough. I think a more reasonable ceiling now is probably Caron Butler, if I had to make a comp (I don't).

RJ and Randle are two of the reasons why the starting line-up seems to have this glass ceiling, can't get easy shots, and still have teams deploying a zone against us - it's why it doesn't matter that they added more shooting. The guys we thought needed help are actually part of the problem. RJ is just less salient because he's on a rookie contract, and he's young so there's still hope he can make "the leap".

I agree with everything you're saying here, but in fairness to RJ he entered the league at a younger age than these guys.

He's definitely on track to NOT being a star, but he deserves a little more time before we make that conclusion.

This is true.

And in fairness, Brad Beal started his an adjusted TS% of 96, 94, 97 his first three seasons, figures that are comparable to RJ's. So there have been examples of players becoming significantly and sustainably more efficient after their third year, although these are outliers.

But Beal (I know you didn't bring him up) always showed more potential off-the-dribble. I just did a little bit of research, and while I can't go back to his third year, in his fourth year Beal (despite his 97 league-adjusted TS%) finished in the 89th percentage in ISO scoring (at 1,02 PPP) and in the 60th percentile in PNR handler scoring (at 0,81 PPP). RJ through 15 games in his third year is in the 6th percentile in ISO scoring (0,47 PPP) and in the 23rd percentile in PNR handler scoring (0,69 PPP).

I think melo is right in saying that RJ simply hasn't flashed the off-the-dribble potential that NBA stars have. It doesn't look natural - rather it seems robotic and awkward. Whether he will develop that skill set remains to be seen, but he hasn't made substantial progress in that regard.

The door isn't completely shut, and as I said, even if he doesn't become a star RJ can still be an asset to the organization. I think he's great for the culture here. But this realization does change my expectations, and also how I value him as an asset (to the team or to another team) because of his looming contract extension.

[Deeeez Knicks]

If RJ is good, but not great I would not consider that a bust. You are setting yourself up for disappointment thinking the draft is Kawhi or bust. In general that seems to be an issue. Too high of expectations too soon.

[TheGreenArrow]

If RJ is good, but not great I would not consider that a bust. You are setting yourself up for disappointment thinking the draft is Kawhi or bust. In general that seems to be an issue. Too high of expectations too soon.

Luka, jalen brown, Tatum, Lamelo, Mobley were all #3 picks!!!!!!!!!!

In terms of value for the #3 pick Rj Barrett is undoubtedly a Bust!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It kills me to say it but i have to tell the truth!!!!!!!

That’s just what I do!!!!!!!!!!!!

[thebuzzardman]

JAG

[Deeeez Knicks]

If RJ is good, but not great I would not consider that a bust. You are setting yourself up for disappointment thinking the draft is Kawhi or bust. In general that seems to be an issue. Too high of expectations too soon.

Luka, jalen brown, Tatum, Lamelo, Mobley were all #3 picks!!!!!!!!!!

In terms of value for the #3 pick Rj Barrett is undoubtedly a Bust!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It kills me to say it but i have to tell the truth!!!!!!!

That’s just what I do!!!!!!!!!!!!

Luka, Jaylen, Tatum, etc were not in that draft so that doesn’t make any sense

[Jimmit79]

Looking back now almost everyone would take garland or herro over RJ without any doubts.

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[robillionaire]

Looking back now almost everyone would take garland or herro over RJ without any doubts.

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Add Jordan Poole to the list

[BugginOut]

Yeah I think it’s reached the point in the RJ cycle people doubt/unironically call him a bust

Expect him to go off the next couple of weeks

[RiRuHoops]

Would Knicks accept Sexton and Okoro for him ?

[Sark]

It's time for him to come off the bench. He started the last 2 years because he was the 3rd pick of the draft, even though his production was below league average. Now that he has regressed, we can no longer justify starting him. A bench role for now, might be better for him in the long run.

[ccvle]

Yeah I think it’s reached the point in the RJ cycle people doubt/unironically call him a bust

Expect him to go off the next couple of weeks

When does this ever happen ? with Frank ? with Jerian Grant ? Kevin Knox ? Best case is RJ goes off once sometime in the next couple of weeks.

[iLLmatic860]

It's time for him to come off the bench. He started the last 2 years because he was the 3rd pick of the draft, even though his production was below league average. Now that he has regressed, we can no longer justify starting him. A bench role for now, might be better for him in the long run.

I agree. I think he And IQ could develop good chemistry

[robillionaire]

Show yourself 207!!!

[BugginOut]

Yeah I think it’s reached the point in the RJ cycle people doubt/unironically call him a bust

Expect him to go off the next couple of weeks

When does this ever happen ? with Frank ? with Jerian Grant ? Kevin Knox ? Best case is RJ goes off once sometime in the next couple of weeks.

You’re kidding? It happened last year. When this thread was made

[TrueWarrior]

RJ Barrett is not that guy, pal. Trust me, he's not that guy lol.

Obi and IQ have flashed way more star potential in their limited time than him. Imagine if they got 34 mpg like RJ has gotten the last 3 years. Alec Burks is better than RJ until further notice.

I want the kid to get it together but it's not looking too good right now. He's not athletic despite being 21 years old and in great shape, has no handles, can't really make plays, gets blocked more than anybody in the league it seems, his defense is solid sometimes but mostly average to meh, and his shooting is back to rookie year numbers. He has a lot of concerns people, as he doesn't really excel at anything naturally. Even last year he wasn't very efficient (53.5 TS%) or productive (13.4 PER), but we thought he'd make a jump this year which doesn't look like will happen. Maybe he has another hot streak in him and gets things going like he did before, but there are a lot of limitations that don't make it easy. He doesn't look like he added anything to his game in the offseason, and has just gotten worse in everything.

Randle getting traded would probably help him a lot though, as it would everybody else. Playing more uptempo. RJ is lost on this team now and has been getting less and less minutes.



A lot more season left however, and he's going to keep starting and getting chances to turn it around (for now). He needs to focus on being more of a slasher again, and stop chucking so many jumpers. He may not be too explosive but he's def strong. Kid should be bullying dudes in the paint. That's who I thought we drafted. Not this guy.

[HarthorneWingo]

I don't think RJ is a bust. I like a lot of things that he brings to the table, and I love his character, so I hope that things pan out in a way that he stays here long-term.

But sometimes you reach an inflection point in your thinking where your opinion tilts in another direction.

I can't be critical of Randle's game (or rather the Knicks' trust in Randle) for being inefficient and thus putting a ceiling on the team, when RJ is even less efficient thank Randle in a lesser role (which is why I mentioned both Randle and RJ in the same paragraph in my last piece @melo).

I checked the adjusted TS% of the successful players he was most often compared to since he got drafted. With 100 being league-average in TS%, here's how they fared in their first three seasons:

Kawhi
109
111
111

Jimmy Butler
100
107
96 (then immediately followed by 109)

Middleton
100
100
105

Harden
101
110
125

RJ
85
94
91

It's frankly sobering. Great players generally show signs they're gonna be great early. RJ simply hasn't. Right now, he's an inefficient 3&D guy who doesn't play good defense - it's simply not good enough. I think a more reasonable ceiling now is probably Caron Butler, if I had to make a comp (I don't).

RJ and Randle are two of the reasons why the starting line-up seems to have this glass ceiling, can't get easy shots, and still have teams deploying a zone against us - it's why it doesn't matter that they added more shooting. The guys we thought needed help are actually part of the problem. RJ is just less salient because he's on a rookie contract, and he's young so there's still hope he can make "the leap".

I agree with everything you're saying here, but in fairness to RJ he entered the league at a younger age than these guys.

He's definitely on track to NOT being a star, but he deserves a little more time before we make that conclusion.

Fine but let him do it with the bench. I’m ready to let Knox have his minutes. At least Knox can hit corner 3s.