NBA breakout sophs: Five players ready to take the leap(Cole)

[JBSouthpaw]

Some good stats here:
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/32642427/nba-breakout-sophomores-five-players-ready-take-leap

Cole Anthony, point guard, Orlando Magic (No. 15 overall)
Only three under-25 players in the NBA are averaging at least 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists this season: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and Cole Anthony. Known for huge box score games dating back to high school, it's no surprise Anthony, Orlando's leading scorer, has reached double digits every game so far this season while topping 30 twice. But it's his steadily improving efficiency and willingness to simplify his game that is most encouraging.

In 47 games he played as a rookie, Anthony ranked third in dribbles per touch (5.67) and fourth in average seconds per touch (six seconds) behind Lillard, Young and Doncic, according to NBA.com. It's one thing to dominate the ball when you're an All-Star, but Anthony was one of six regular starters to post a true shooting percentage under 50 last season.

Fast forward to this season and Anthony is pounding the ball far less (4.59 dribbles per touch, ranking 19th) and making quicker decisions (5.13 seconds per touch, ranking 14th). Now playing alongside ball-movers such as Jalen Suggs (before his injury) and Franz Wagner, Anthony's pick-and-roll usage is down from 51% of his possessions to 37% so far, giving him more opportunities to use his speed and shot-making prowess against a shifting defense.

Less is clearly more for Anthony and we're starting to see what he can look like when he doesn't have to live off of tough shots he creates for himself. Anthony is getting out in transition with more regularity, taking over twice as many catch-and-shoot jumpers as a season ago (40% from 3 on 9.1 attempts per 40 minutes) and playing off of pitches with bigs like Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. -- both of whom are shooting over 35% from 3 -- more effectively and decisively. He's taken advantage of Wagner's tremendous feel as a cutter, spoon-feeding him with live-dribble deliveries after getting a piece of the paint.

The Magic are a whopping 40.2 points per 100 possessions better when Anthony is on the floor as opposed to off, by far the widest margin in the NBA. They're scoring 30.6 points per 100 more and giving up 9.6 points per 100 less. Although 469 minutes is still a small sample and Anthony has some shortcomings as a decision-maker, his impact has been felt this season, even with the Magic sitting at 3-11.

It remains to be seen what Anthony looks like when point guard Markelle Fultz returns and as Suggs finds his footing, but in the interim, he has taken steps in simplifying his game, making him that much more effective under first-time coach Jamahl Mosley.

[PrimeThyme]

I seriously have zero concerns regarding what Markelle Fultz's return will mean for Anthony.

Fultz is who he is. The narrative that he was breaking out pre-injury has been debunked time and time again. Just look at his numbers during the 8 game "breakout" stretch. He shot under 40%, 25% from 3, and barely averaged 12.9 ppg on 11 shots.

Now don't get me wrong, I think this team needs his playmaking and I'm eagerly anticipating his return, but if Anthony is playing at this level, Fultz is an absolute zero threat to his role on this team.

These numbers even show that the less thinking (dribbling, PnR playmaking, etc) Cole has to do on the offensive side of the ball, the more effective he is. Mosley has identified this and I think his coaching is a big reason why Cole has broken out as he has. He and Fultz should play well off each other, && Fultz's playmaking and ballhandling should allow for Cole to play to his strengths even more so.

I honestly don't foresee Fultz starting for this basketball team. Say what you want about Suggs, but the numbers show that he and Anthony play well together, && though his %'s don't bear it out yet, I think Suggs will develop into a far more willing and effective catch and shoot guard than Fultz ever will be.

[JBSouthpaw]

I seriously have zero concerns regarding what Markelle Fultz's return will mean for Anthony.

Fultz is who he is. The narrative that he was breaking out pre-injury has been debunked time and time again. Just look at his numbers during the 8 game "breakout" stretch. He shot under 40%, 25% from 3, and barely averaged 12.9 ppg on 11 shots.

Now don't get me wrong, I think this team needs his playmaking and I'm eagerly anticipating his return, but if Anthony is playing at this level, Fultz is an absolute zero threat to his role on this team.

These numbers even show that the less thinking (dribbling, PnR playmaking, etc) Cole has to do on the offensive side of the ball, the more effective he is. Mosley has identified this and I think his coaching is a big reason why Cole has broken out as he has. He and Fultz should play well off each other, && Fultz's playmaking and ballhandling should allow for Cole to play to his strengths even more so.

I honestly don't foresee Fultz starting for this basketball team. Say what you want about Suggs, but the numbers show that he and Anthony play well together, && though his %'s don't bear it out yet, I think Suggs will develop into a far more willing and effective catch and shoot guard than Fultz ever will be.

I have concerns because of the Money Fultz is getting. Just like Harris getting time, Fultz will get time too.
Even if they like Cole/Suggs, their going to have to play Fultz to get trade value up. kind of a catch 22.

[drsd]

If Anthony's play is sustainable, good. It is a nice problem to have in deciding between starting-capable players.

Long term, we really need to see what Fultz has next. Otherwise the Magic might player their SG on the ball )Suggs) and PG off of the ball (Anthony). I am really ok with that.

That said, whereas yes Anthony is a triple-double threat all nights, his defense must get better.


..

[tooler]

It's funny how that short article pretty much removes the need for half the discussion on this forum. It's all summarized right there.

For his supporters, he has great counting stats and the team is clearly much better with him on the floor. For his detractors, he still dribbles a bit too much (ranked 19th in the league) and I'll admit the article didn't mention anything about defense.

There's not much else to say. But the debate continues!

[BadMofoPimp]

Cole Provin em all wrong!!!!

[RichCollab]

Cole is better when Suggs is out there. Suggs makes the defense that much better making it hard to exploit Cole’s defensive liability.

[CZ Eddie]

If we had chosen Anthony as the #1 overall pick in 2020, not everyone would be upset today.

I don't know if he's a number 1 in that draft, but he's up there in the top five or higher for sure.

2020 NBA Draft
1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards
2. Warriors draft James Wiseman
3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball
4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams
5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro
6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu
7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes
8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin
9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija
10. Suns draft Jalen Smith
11. Spurs draft Devin Vassell
12. Kings draft Tyrese Haliburton
13. Pelicans draft Kira Lewis Jr.
14. Celtics draft Aaron Nesmith
15. Magic draft Cole Anthony

[CZ Eddie]

Wow, Cole is 21st in minutes per game so far this year.
I hope he can keep up these numbers and get down to something more sustainable, like 31-32 MPG.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-most-minutes-played-in-regulation-game-2022

[CZ Eddie]

[The Effect]

If we had chosen Anthony as the #1 overall pick in 2020, not everyone would be upset today.

I don't know if he's a number 1 in that draft, but he's up there in the top five or higher for sure.

2020 NBA Draft
1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards
2. Warriors draft James Wiseman
3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball
4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams
5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro
6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu
7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes
8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin
9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija
10. Suns draft Jalen Smith
11. Spurs draft Devin Vassell
12. Kings draft Tyrese Haliburton
13. Pelicans draft Kira Lewis Jr.
14. Celtics draft Aaron Nesmith
15. Magic draft Cole Anthony

In a re-draft, i cant see him going outside the top 3 after Edwards and Lamelo. MAYBE patrick williams, but i def didnt see enough last year from him to say id take him right now over Cole. In his defense he got hurt this year and is playing on a stacked team so hard for him to really ball out, but like i said i didnt see enough

[pepe1991]

We are playing him like he is prime Steve Nash/ Chris Paul. It's so ridicilous that even Durant and Giannis (and Westbrook and many other PGs ) are touching ball less than him.

Only 9 players in whole nba have more touches per game than him and only 4 nba players hold ball for more time per possession than him. Second data is even more hilarious. Trae Young, James Harden, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and...Cole Anthony . When you come to conclusion Cole Anthony plays way more with ball than Lillard and Curry you have to start to question your own sanity.

Among those players he is only player who isn't superstar ( or allstar).

In general, last 6 ,7 years in nba ( i was too lazy to keep clicking ) almost no a single nba player had this luxury to dribble as much, touch ball as much and wasn't sure-shot superstar. There are 2 names who come close. D'angelo Russell (menaged to become allstar) and Eric Bledsoe. Needless to say on terrible teams making themselfs max ( or near max )contract guys, just to that contract turning into biggest s***tfest for their teams.

What i'm interested to know is how effective guard Cole Anthony is on half of touches, half of shots and playing 20-25 min a game, not shooting himself into a rythm knowing nothing will happen on nights when he shoots 4-18, knowing next night he will be in store for 20 new shots regardless of outcome

[CZ Eddie]

If we had chosen Anthony as the #1 overall pick in 2020, not everyone would be upset today.

I don't know if he's a number 1 in that draft, but he's up there in the top five or higher for sure.

2020 NBA Draft
1. Timberwolves draft Anthony Edwards
2. Warriors draft James Wiseman
3. Hornets draft LaMelo Ball
4. Bulls draft Patrick Williams
5. Cavaliers draft Isaac Okoro
6. Hawks draft Onyeka Okongwu
7. Pistons draft Killian Hayes
8. Knicks draft Obi Toppin
9. Wizards draft Deni Avdija
10. Suns draft Jalen Smith
11. Spurs draft Devin Vassell
12. Kings draft Tyrese Haliburton
13. Pelicans draft Kira Lewis Jr.
14. Celtics draft Aaron Nesmith
15. Magic draft Cole Anthony

In a re-draft, i cant see him going outside the top 3 after Edwards and Lamelo. MAYBE patrick williams, but i def didnt see enough last year from him to say id take him right now over Cole. In his defense he got hurt this year and is playing on a stacked team so hard for him to really ball out, but like i said i didnt see enough

Bleacher report or some other site just did a "re-draft" and had Cole as the #4 pick I think it was.
LaMelo went #1.

[Bensational]

I think Cole still has a ton of potential to prove to be a reliable high volume guy. He has a high enough skill level that he can learn to avoid, or get out of, some of his bad habits/sticky situations. The more he reduces those, maintains his efficiency and plays within the offense he could be part of a young big 3.

He has to get better on defense. Needs to stop chasing boards and focus on locking down perimeters.

[penny_nz]

We are playing him like he is prime Steve Nash/ Chris Paul. It's so ridicilous that even Durant and Giannis (and Westbrook and many other PGs ) are touching ball less than him.

Only 9 players in whole nba have more touches per game than him and only 4 nba players hold ball for more time per possession than him. Second data is even more hilarious. Trae Young, James Harden, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant and...Cole Anthony . When you come to conclusion Cole Anthony plays way more with ball than Lillard and Curry you have to start to question your own sanity.

Among those players he is only player who isn't superstar ( or allstar).

In general, last 6 ,7 years in nba ( i was too lazy to keep clicking ) almost no a single nba player had this luxury to dribble as much, touch ball as much and wasn't sure-shot superstar. There are 2 names who come close. D'angelo Russell (menaged to become allstar) and Eric Bledsoe. Needless to say on terrible teams making themselfs max ( or near max )contract guys, just to that contract turning into biggest s***tfest for their teams.

What i'm interested to know is how effective guard Cole Anthony is on half of touches, half of shots and playing 20-25 min a game, not shooting himself into a rythm knowing nothing will happen on nights when he shoots 4-18, knowing next night he will be in store for 20 new shots regardless of outcome

Those are crazy stats to see written down, but align to what you see with the "eye test".

Agree, would be interested to see how he goes with less usage

[Audi]

We are playing him like he is prime Steve Nash/ Chris Paul. It's so ridicilous that even Durant and Giannis (and Westbrook and many other PGs ) are touching ball less than him.

Typical pepe stat twisting here. Durant shares the court with Harden, Westbrook with Lebron and Davis, Giannis with Middleton...all productive teammates with the ball. Who on this roster does Cole play with that has similar capacity?

I see the point you are trying to make, but this isn’t the statistic for it. By these same metrics we are playing Suggs like he’s Jokic! How ridiculous! Time to question our sanity!

[Knightro]

BEWARE THE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

Thanks to the last two games, Cole Anthony's TS% has dropped from .581 to .551 for the season.

The league average is .572.

[JTG_92940618]

It's his finishing at the rim that is hurting him the most. As per basketball reference here is where he fits:

0-3 feet: Top 81.9%
3-10: Top 50.5%
10-16: Top 9.7%
16-3p: Top 56.1%
3p: Top 36.6%

He's actually shooting worse from 0-3 feet this season (55.6%) than he did last season (58.8).

[RickB-Orlando]

This shouldn't have been a surprise simply because, before injury, he was one of the most highly anticipated talents entering college. When he popped his knee and needed surgery, he became a bit of a risk. But he was all-everything prior to that. Nice to see what he can do when he's healthy (though he may be out tonight?)

[Bensational]

It's his finishing at the rim that is hurting him the most. As per basketball reference here is where he fits:

0-3 feet: Top 81.9%
3-10: Top 50.5%
10-16: Top 9.7%
16-3p: Top 56.1%
3p: Top 36.6%

He's actually shooting worse from 0-3 feet this season (55.6%) than he did last season (58.8).

If he stopped going for tomahawk jams then his at rim % could probably jump 10 points. Lol.