MPJ has a nerve issue in his back that could jeopardize his season

[matt6715]

Warrior GM Meyers once said the mistake long term contracts are the ones between the MLE and Max.

There are only IMO at most 10 super star perennial MVPs at most.

Klay got the max (deserved despite not being a top-10 super star perennial MVP guy) and looked what has happened to him - wasted two years of Curry's prime because of his injuries. Tides can turn quickly in the NBA. He could also work his way back and have a productive career. It's tough to say right now.

[timO]

Denver GM is a genius.

[islanders11040]

good thing he signed that deal …

the most clutch securing of bag of all time

[BelgradeNugget]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

[HartfordWhalers]

To be clear though, the teams dont pay for a medically retired player. Its been awhile since I read up on it, but I believe insurance companies are the ones that pay it (or at least like 90% of it) and they can just get a disabled players exception. So if MPJ retires, he wont effect their cap and insurance companies are paying him not the Nuggets.

Longer answer from the trade board is below in the spoiler, but short answer is you are combining two entirely separate things.
Medical retirement relates to the cap and has no bearing on the question of insurance.

Spoiler:

Bumped the old thread as I haven't had nearly enough coffee to copy paste, but its 5/145 with the last year gtd 12 of 39; so that 145 number is not the full contract but is already including cutting him with 12m in dead money the last year.

It is possible MPJ is back in a few days and all this can be ignored but as far as the general implications of a severe injury that might be career threatening, here is a summary and lots of quotes and links from cbafaq for those interested.

My quick short summary would be if he reaches a point that he cannot play again, Denver's owners are going to be paying a ton of money. However, the salary cap aspects can go away if it is indeed clear enough that the team was willing to cut MPJ and medical professionals felt confident it was career ending. So Denver would be hamstrung by a loss of a talented player, and perhaps by owners willingness to spend more, but not by the cap. There is of course the much messier, where he can play some, then regresses going forward and Denver needs to just ride the injury waves. And I'm going to repeat, or he could be healthy and playing in a week.

But for those wondering on different aspects of it:

1) Insurance

NBA insurance is pretty well detailed here:
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q73

If an insured player is disabled, there is a 41 game waiting period, after which the insurance company pays 80% of the covered salary, which includes current and deferred compensation, and any signing bonus and incentive compensation that can be earned prior to the start of the regular season. The maximum covered salary is $28,187,500, or $275,000 per regular game. The maximum coverage for any one player is six seasons (451 games after the waiting period).

So, just following the assumptions that MPJ is covered, and I assume that 28m is indexed to go up, but roughly 80% would be around 115m in coverage, and 30m or so not paid.

However, I would extremely doubt that the contract is insured:

The carrier has the right to exclude up to 14 players per season, with a maximum of six players per season excluded due to sickness (there are specific exceptions and sublimits to these exclusions). One example is when they excluded Luol Deng in 2008-09 because he had $71 million remaining on his contract and a history of back injuries. The list of excluded players changes each year, so a player who is not covered one season might be covered the following season. However, once a player is covered the carrier can't exclude the player for the remainder of his current contract.

MPJ would be the first contract I would pick as an insurance company to exclude. For those wondering on Embiid's deal, there was specific clauses in the deal that mentioned a reoccurring injury and even then he got over half the deal anyway. We haven't seen any reports of this again, and I'm strongly guessing we would have by now if it was in there.

Sometimes team owners claim to also buy private insurance not through the NBA, although I wouldn't imagine I would want to be a company offering insurance on MPJ and including his known back issues, so I think that is pretty unlikely.

And even if insurance did pay some of MPJ contract, that wouldn't alter the cap hit implications of the contract going forward. However:

2) Cap hit: *Waived* and Medically retired
As for the cap hit, there are a couple of aspects. The first is if the team decides he can never play again and fully commits to that by waiving him. In that case after a year the salary can be removed from the salary cap. (It is still paid). This is probably the most relevant to most people on here, as it sets up that Denver wouldn't get that cap space next offseason, but could have it even by December 15, 2022 in theory if the worst case was true.

This is when a player suffers a career-ending injury or illness. The team must waive the player, and can apply for this salary exclusion following a waiting period. Only the player's team at the time the injury or illness was discovered (or reasonably should have been discovered) can apply for this salary exclusion.

The team can apply to have the player's salary excluded starting on the first anniversary of the player's last regular season

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q61

Note that this medical retired requires a panel of experts to say he cannot play again, but does not require the player to agree to the findings, and we have had players medically retired who have tried to come back. And if they do sufficiently (25 games) Denver is back on the hook for the contract *at that point*. That could really screw over a team, because you are talking about an unexpected 30-40m cap hit out of the blue.

3) Cap hit: Disabled Player Exception

Basically, for every single season MPJ might be out and it can be ruled that he will be out that season by a panel, Denver will get an exception.
For this season it would be 50% of MPJ salary so half of $3,550,800 or a ~1.8m exception. It is almost irrelevant
Going forward it would be bounded by the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception plus $100,000

However, it is worth noting that any exception use is dependent on
a) have MPJ ruled out for the season and
b) not waived him yet.

It also has 2 big features:
a) Must be expiring
b) Counts against free cap room, add to lux tax etc.

If this exception is granted, the team can acquire one player via free agent signing, trade or waiver claim, to replace the disabled player:

The team may sign a free agent for one season only, for 50% of the disabled player's salary or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, whichever is less.
The team may trade for a player in the last season of his contract only (including any option years)2, who is making no more than 50% plus $100,000 of the disabled player's salary, or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception plus $100,000, whichever is less.
The team may claim a player on waivers who is in the last season of his contract only (including any option years), who is making no more than 50% of the disabled player's salary, or the amount of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, whichever is less.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

In theory if MPJ could never play again you might see something like:
a) Near trade deadline Denver gets that 1.8m DPE because why not
b) Next season they see how it looks, and if he cannot play they go for a DPE of the MLE
c) If he looks fully gone, then try and cut him off the cap via medically retired

If it looked really bad you skip step b, if it looks promising you keep waiting until the trade deadline and then trying b for a couple of years, etc. And again, maybe he plays next week

[timO]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

[BelgradeNugget]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

It is not as they chose between MPJ and KD. What if they waited a year, sign him next year and the same thing happens?
Healthy MPJ is 3rd best player on championship team. Unhealthy MPJ is not. Without MPJ they don't have that player, and can't sign another one.

[matt6715]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

This would have been the more prudent approach. See what happens this year and you still have the ability to pay him a max at a slightly better value. Surely MPJ's fragile ego wouldn't have loved that but it would have allowed the Nuggets to take some more time to understand his fit and value especially without Murray in the mix. No need to rush to max a guy out when you hold his rights. Suns for example are playing this Ayton thing right IMO.

[Wolfgang630]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

This would have been the more prudent approach. See what happens this year and you still have the ability to pay him a max at a slightly better value. Surely MPJ's fragile ego wouldn't have loved that but it would have allowed the Nuggets to take some more time to understand his fit and value especially without Murray in the mix. No need to rush to max a guy out when you hold his rights. Suns for example are playing this Ayton thing right IMO.

Yep. We’re talking about the third option here. He’s not the first or even second option. Wait and see. No need to rush man. If it didn’t work out you can look for third options.

[zshawn10]

That absolutely sucks but there’s a reason he dropped in the draft; his whole family has a history of these injuries. Great for MPJ financially, terrible for the Nuggets though

[DusterBuster]

Nuggets should look into the possibility of voiding that extension
All I know I thought from the get go they gave him crazy money considering his fragility
If I was Jokic I'd be looking to bolt. Denvers roster is ghastly without MPJ, Barton and Murray

I thought I heard they had some injury provisions in the deal, so I would guess they have some protections there... but outside of that, I'm not in favor of the Nuggets getting a pass on that deal. They knew the risks and still made the deal with him, he deserves that money based on whatever the contract details stipulate in case of major injury.

[Woodsanity]

Nuggets are doomed. If I was Jokic I would jump ship asap. MPJ was only worth the 40m if he reached his max potential and didnt get hurt but that was a long shot. Jamal Murray is a good player but injury prone.

Overall, the supporting cast is nothing to write home about unless everyone is healthy.

[BigGargamel]

Ugh, Denver was SOOOOOOOOOOO close too. This is starting to look like a lost season. The Nuggets won't tank, butthey should get some looks at Bol, Nnaji and Bones and work towards 2022-2023.

People who say Jokic should bolt are pretty pathetic NBA fans IMO. He loves Denver and Denver loves him. Probably the same people who whine when players request trades.

[Mickey8]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

He was never the great player to begin with, he was unproven asset with the history of the very bad injuries.

[asas]

As Nuggets fan I still think he was worth the risk. To have great team you have to have great players, you can't do it with a bunch of good role players. Healthy MPJ is good enough to be 3rd best player on championship team. Will his back be good enough to have 2-5 good runs with Denver. Who knows?
Look at other teams. KD, Harden and Kyrie are in Brooklyn to win championship. Will they? Lakers? Will Zion, Embiid be healthy enough to lead their teams to success? Who knows.
You can do all the right things but you have to have a lot of luck. Are Jokic's Nuggets on the way to become Brendon Roy's Blazers? Don't know. Thing is sometimes it is not about your goal-championship it is about journey.
What should the Nuggets do? Respect the game and fans, play hard, win as much as they can, good enough for me.
And don't tank because it is not working.

which risk?

at worst he is RFA and u equal a max over 4 years

giving him the full max is

It is not as they chose between MPJ and KD. What if they waited a year, sign him next year and the same thing happens?
Healthy MPJ is 3rd best player on championship team. Unhealthy MPJ is not. Without MPJ they don't have that player, and can't sign another one.

Waiting a year to see if he actually takes a big leap is a very good decision. He wasn't "that" special but had a lot of potential.

The "3rd best player on a championship team" is just a bad statement. It depends on the rest of the team. Is Rondo a 3rd best player on a championship team? Or Kuzma/KCP? There's 0 consistency in using this to describe a player.

We all understand that it takes guts for a team to not sign his deal. By the way that's a problem with the whole league, not only Nuggets. I remember Wiggins situation was similar. Wolves were scared to let him go and decided to sign him and pray. Nuggets should have more confidence in themselves cuz in the last 5 yearts their scouting was insane.

If an all nba first team player gets signed for the same amount as MPJ(who is not even an all-star.) let's be real and acnowledge that there's something wrong with these contracts.

[GeorgeSears]

It's going to be very difficult to replace that type of production. MPJ was very good last season, and had a strong rookie year as well. The Nuggets obviously had to sign him seeing his growth and potential, despite the fact that the injury risk was always there.

[Myth]

Damn isn't that what happened to Tmac too? That sidelined him a bunch of times for Houston which killed any run they had at a title. Would've beat the Lakers that year if him and Yao stayed healthy.

I thought the Rockets were going to beat them if only Yao remained healthy.

[Lala870]

Nuggets FO RN

[asas]

Nuggets FO RN

I mean he wanted to leave so it's not like they did something wrong. Ofc they would take him even with MPJ.

[LAL1947]

Ugh, Denver was SOOOOOOOOOOO close too. This is starting to look like a lost season. The Nuggets won't tank, butthey should get some looks at Bol, Nnaji and Bones and work towards 2022-2023.

People who say Jokic should bolt are pretty pathetic NBA fans IMO. He loves Denver and Denver loves him. Probably the same people who whine when players request trades.

I won't lie, I'm hoping Jokic bolts for Dallas to join up with Luka ASAP. The two of them have had such bad luck with their teams. For Jokic, it's bad luck with injuries to his best team-mates... and for Luka, it's bad luck he got drafted by such a crappy FO. Meanwhile, Lebron, KD, Curry, Giannis, Suns, Hawks, etc will continue to compete for titles with stacked teams.

I was hoping and wanting for Denver to win the title this year btw. Anyway, they can't team up in Denver, since the Nuggets are now handicapped with MPJ's salary, and who knows what Murray will be like when he returns and he's on a max contract too. So Jokic + Luka does Dallas for the win! With Porzingis + picks going the other way.