2022 NBA Draft

[Duke4life831]

People can go back and look, Ive been a huge AJ Griffin fan for a long time. Ive been singing the praises of that kid for 2+ years. I was always higher on him than Paolo leading up until this year.

With that said, AJ is a weird blank slate at the moment. Things that we know about him.

People may question the height, but we know for a fact he has a 7+ wingspan. There is video and pictures of him getting his wingspan taken. So unless the measurement they used was faulty, we know he has great length for a wing.
We know he is a very good athlete. Very bouncy and he moves laterally very well.

Things that are up to question:

His shooting seems to be very streaky. Whether we are talking from 3 or from the FT line, the numbers seem to bounce around a good amount (going off of high school).
Seemed to have good ball skills in high school but we have no clue how those look and how well they translate against better competition.

When it comes to what we have seen from him at Duke. The first 3 games he got spot minutes. The last 2 games he was actually in the game for legit stretches. He has mostly been asked to be a catch and shoot guy. Now in his limited minutes I think his defense has looked good. But I have to be fair and I dont give any credence to other guys performances against horrible teams (see the Emoni Bates thread) and I will say the same here with AJ. He mainly knocked down some open 3s and got some easy 2pt buckets against already broken down defenses. And it was against horrible competition.

Ideally he gets 20+ minutes against Gonzaga, that would be a really good test for him. Ill also say this, the only way I would feel confident taking AJ top 10 in this draft is he will have to show us something. Ideally he over takes Keels as the 2nd option on this team. That is what you want to see from a top 10 prospect. If he does that, I can see the guy jumping into the top 3 discussion, because he does have all the physical tools you want in a wing.

If he doesnt and he continues to be this low on ball volume player. I think he ends up being a mid to late teen pick. I dont see him slipping later than that because he does have the physical tools, he has a very workable jumper and he has no off court or personality red flags.

So ya, looking forward to seeing if his minutes and role actually is progressing when they play Gonzaga, wouldnt shock me if he sees 10 or less minutes in that game. And Id like to see him take over that #2 role in the offense by years end.

[EMG518]

I'm going to say Paolo and Chet > Cade and Mobley. I like this draft.

[DrCoach]

Chris Ledlum
Harvard

Stud

[clyde21]

I'm going to say Paolo and Chet > Cade and Mobley. I like this draft.

i just can't get there at this point, what is this based on?

[Hal14]

Watch on YouTube

I’m sure 4:55 really impressed the 39 scouts there.

PBJ might be one of the overrated ones in this years draft. Not a lot of wiggle in his game, his shooting is off and I have my suspicion he’d be of a more role type player on a bigger College team.

Rich Man’s Kuzma?

Maybe not even rich man's Kuzma. Maybe just...Kuzma?

[Hal14]

AJ doesn't look 6-7 to me but maybe im trippin

he's listed at 6'6" which sounds about right to me..

https://goduke.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster

[Hal14]

Kendall Brown is an interesting prospect as well, he really looks like he jumps off a trampoline. I have no idea of what to make of him yet, though, with his refusal to shoot

Refusal to shoot, or just having good shot selection, picking your spots, being more selective? It's not like he can't shoot, TS% of 72.8% and 3 point % of 75% (yes, i know low volume but still..)

and my questions as to which role he could effectively fill at the next level.

What role did Scottie Pippen and Shawn Marion have in the NBA? There's your answer.

It'll definitely take me some more games to get an idea of what to make of him.

You could also check out the thread on this board dedicated to Brown - the original post in that thread contains a few videos of his high school footage. The high energy, high motor, crazy athleticism, excellent defense (especially off the ball), excellent passing and occasional shooting and creation off the dribble, high flying dunks and ability to play at a crazy fast pace while making winning plays that we're seeing at Baylor - all of it is on display in the videos in that thread.

I also like Diabate. He runs the floor well, provides energy and had some really strong possessions staying with smaller players. He's not a player that projects to have great upside, though, with his shooting deficiencies

He's only taken 1 three-pointer so far this season but that probably has more to do with his role on the team and Michigan's system rather than his inability to shoot - he showed the ability to shoot pretty well (in mid range and from beyond the arc) in high school. And he did hit a jumper from just inside the 3 point line last night vs Arizona.

and without the size to play the 5 full time.

I think at the next level he projects as more of a 4, who can also give you the versatility to sometimes ply the 5. He's 6'11" (with a 7'3" wingspan), 210 lbs. Not exactly a small dude. If you look at some of the guys who have gotten drafted recently and are getting minutes at the 5 (Evan Mobley, Nic Claxton, Isaiah Jackson), these guys aren't exactly big huge monsters. Diabate has comparable size to all 3 of those guys.

Check out this video, specifically the plays at 1:53 (ability to put the ball on the floor and throw it down like that is impressive for a dude who's 6'11" and is still only in HS, especially with that type of athleticism), 2:33 (flies into the play from out of nowhere, makes the steal, uses long strides to get to the rim with minimal dribbles before throwing it down, 2:52 soft touch on the mid range fadeaway jumper, then the next few plays we see him hitting a bunch of shots from 3), 3:27 faces up from the wing, puts the ball on the floor, gets to rim and dunks it

Watch on YouTube

[Duke4life831]

I'm going to say Paolo and Chet > Cade and Mobley. I like this draft.

As a Duke fan I would love to have you sell me on the idea that Paolo is near Mobley as a prospect. I’m not seeing a Mobley level prospect in this draft. So Mobley alone makes any duo from last year better than any duo so far from this year.

[DCasey91]

It’d probably go:

Mobley

Clear Gap:
Barnes
Chet
Smith Jr
Banch
Cade
Green

Smith Jr is the wild card.

So last year gets probably the best player but I think this year there’ll be more of even spread of talent at the top. I think Green/Cade/Suggs 2 out of three will fail to meet expectations.

If the top 5 come draft night is - Chet, Smith Jr, Banchero, Griffin Jr, Murray I’ll happily take it over last year with Brown waiting in the wings with All Star traits to him.

[The-Power]

Kendall Brown is an interesting prospect as well, he really looks like he jumps off a trampoline. I have no idea of what to make of him yet, though, with his refusal to shoot

Refusal to shoot, or just having good shot selection, picking your spots, being more selective? It's not like he can't shoot, TS% of 72.8% and 3 point % of 75% (yes, i know low volume but still..)

Refusal to shoot. He has been open many times and decided not to take the shot. I'm not saying it's a bad choice if he's not comfortable shooting them yet, but he'll absolutely have to shoot those shots in the NBA and he needs to get there, mentally and in terms of being able to knock them down. Also, it's not just ‘low volume’ – when a player has taken only 4 shots, you shouldn't even use percentages.

and my questions as to which role he could effectively fill at the next level.

What role did Scottie Pippen and Shawn Marion have in the NBA? There's your answer.

From what I have seen I don't think he is that level of wing defender. Marion and Pippen also had very different roles on offense in particular, so I'm not sure what you role you actually see for him.

It'll definitely take me some more games to get an idea of what to make of him.

You could also check out the thread on this board dedicated to Brown - the original post in that thread contains a few videos of his high school footage. The high energy, high motor, crazy athleticism, excellent defense (especially off the ball), excellent passing and occasional shooting and creation off the dribble, high flying dunks and ability to play at a crazy fast pace while making winning plays that we're seeing at Baylor - all of it is on display in the videos in that thread.

I am fully aware of his selling points, but I don't look at highlights to determine what role someone could or should play in the NBA. Only watching multiple full games works for that, especially in cases like his due to the points I made about him in my previous post.

I also like Diabate. He runs the floor well, provides energy and had some really strong possessions staying with smaller players. He's not a player that projects to have great upside, though, with his shooting deficiencies

He's only taken 1 three-pointer so far this season but that probably has more to do with his role on the team and Michigan's system rather than his inability to shoot - he showed the ability to shoot pretty well (in mid range and from beyond the arc) in high school. And he did hit a jumper from just inside the 3 point line last night vs Arizona.

I don't agree with the whole ‘role’ argument. Yes, it's not his role but why not? Because he's not a shooter. If he was a good shooter, he'd be allowed and willing to shoot 3s. It's really that simple. No coach in 2021 would tell him to not shoot if he was actually good at it. There is a purpose behind a player's role after all.

He's taken one 3 thus far, and starting out shooting only 6 out of 15 (40%) from the foul line doesn't exactly inspire confidence (and this is, by the way, in line with what he shot in FIBA competition in 2019 where he went 9 out of 22). I'm not saying he's always going to be a non-shooter but it's frankly obvious that he's not an advanced shooter by any stretch of the imagination. That's my point. Him being someone who can hit the occasional open jumper is not what would give him considerable upside as a prospect, it's the basic requirement for staying in the NBA in his case.

and without the size to play the 5 full time.

I think at the next level he projects as more of a 4, who can also give you the versatility to sometimes ply the 5. He's 6'11" (with a 7'3" wingspan), 210 lbs. Not exactly a small dude. If you look at some of the guys who have gotten drafted recently and are getting minutes at the 5 (Evan Mobley, Nic Claxton, Isaiah Jackson), these guys aren't exactly big huge monsters. Diabate has comparable size to all 3 of those guys.

Let's wait and see regarding his size. I wouldn't take those reported measurements at face value at this point, and as far as I know he doesn't have official measurements (some reports also have him smaller and with a shorter wingspan). He certainly doesn't look 6'11'' to me. What I will say is that he doesn't look like a 5 on the court – neither in terms of size nor in terms of dominance around the rim on defense. He just doesn't seem to have the size to just shut down opponents with sheer verticality around the rim.

[clyde21]

It’d probably go:

Mobley

Clear Gap:
Barnes
Chet
Smith Jr
Banch
Cade
Green

Smith Jr is the wild card.

So last year gets probably the best player but I think this year there’ll be more of even spread of talent at the top. I think Green/Cade/Suggs 2 out of three will fail to meet expectations.

If the top 5 come draft night is - Chet, Smith Jr, Banchero, Griffin Jr, Murray I’ll happily take it over last year with Brown waiting in the wings with All Star traits to him.

i mean, if you're just playing the numbers games then one of Paolo, Jabari and Chet will also fail to meet expectations.

[Hal14]

Kendall Brown is an interesting prospect as well, he really looks like he jumps off a trampoline. I have no idea of what to make of him yet, though, with his refusal to shoot

Refusal to shoot, or just having good shot selection, picking your spots, being more selective? It's not like he can't shoot, TS% of 72.8% and 3 point % of 75% (yes, i know low volume but still..)

Refusal to shoot. He has been open many times and decided not to take the shot. I'm not saying it's a bad choice if he's not comfortable shooting them yet, but he'll absolutely have to shoot those shots in the NBA and he needs to get there, mentally and in terms of being able to knock them down. Also, it's not just ‘low volume’ – when a player has taken only 4 shots, you shouldn't even use percentages.

and my questions as to which role he could effectively fill at the next level.

What role did Scottie Pippen and Shawn Marion have in the NBA? There's your answer.

From what I have seen I don't think he is that level of wing defender. Marion and Pippen also had very different roles on offense in particular, so I'm not sure what you role you actually see for him.

It'll definitely take me some more games to get an idea of what to make of him.

You could also check out the thread on this board dedicated to Brown - the original post in that thread contains a few videos of his high school footage. The high energy, high motor, crazy athleticism, excellent defense (especially off the ball), excellent passing and occasional shooting and creation off the dribble, high flying dunks and ability to play at a crazy fast pace while making winning plays that we're seeing at Baylor - all of it is on display in the videos in that thread.

I am fully aware of his selling points, but I don't look at highlights to determine what role someone could or should play in the NBA. Only watching multiple full games works for that, especially in cases like his due to the points I made about him in my previous post.

I also like Diabate. He runs the floor well, provides energy and had some really strong possessions staying with smaller players. He's not a player that projects to have great upside, though, with his shooting deficiencies

He's only taken 1 three-pointer so far this season but that probably has more to do with his role on the team and Michigan's system rather than his inability to shoot - he showed the ability to shoot pretty well (in mid range and from beyond the arc) in high school. And he did hit a jumper from just inside the 3 point line last night vs Arizona.

I don't agree with the whole ‘role’ argument. Yes, it's not his role but why not? Because he's not a shooter. If he was a good shooter, he'd be allowed and willing to shoot 3s. It's really that simple. No coach in 2021 would tell him to not shoot if he was actually good at it. There is a purpose behind a player's role after all.

He's taken one 3 thus far, and starting out shooting only 6 out of 15 (40%) from the foul line doesn't exactly inspire confidence (and this is, by the way, in line with what he shot in FIBA competition in 2019 where he went 9 out of 22). I'm not saying he's always going to be a non-shooter but it's frankly obvious that he's not an advanced shooter by any stretch of the imagination. That's my point. Him being someone who can hit the occasional open jumper is not what would give him considerable upside as a prospect, it's the basic requirement for staying in the NBA in his case.

and without the size to play the 5 full time.

I think at the next level he projects as more of a 4, who can also give you the versatility to sometimes ply the 5. He's 6'11" (with a 7'3" wingspan), 210 lbs. Not exactly a small dude. If you look at some of the guys who have gotten drafted recently and are getting minutes at the 5 (Evan Mobley, Nic Claxton, Isaiah Jackson), these guys aren't exactly big huge monsters. Diabate has comparable size to all 3 of those guys.

Let's wait and see regarding his size. I wouldn't take those reported measurements at face value at this point, and as far as I know he doesn't have official measurements (some reports also have him smaller and with a shorter wingspan). He certainly doesn't look 6'11'' to me. What I will say is that he doesn't look like a 5 on the court – neither in terms of size nor in terms of dominance around the rim on defense. He just doesn't seem to have the size to just shut down opponents with sheer verticality around the rim.

Not going to respond to all of that - I'll just add:

1) There's multiple full games on YouTube of Brown playing for his high school team last season - I wasn't just going off highlights. 1 of the games at GEICO Nationals, he literally took over the game with his perimeter defense, making 3 steals in a row out on the perimeter, which led to thunderous dunks on the other end by Brown. That might change your opinion about his perimeter defense.

2) Draft experts have said that sometimes a player's (especially a freshman player) HS & AAU film is more valuable to watch when evaluating than his college film because many college teams played in a highly structured way, less free-flowing, more robotic, more scripted and so the players being forced to fit into a predetermined system (a system that was run before that player got to the school and will continue to be run after that player leaves the school) so often times the player (especially if they only stay at the college for 1 year) is not able to fully showcase their abilities. Michigan seems like a team that loves to pound it into the post, and not let their bigs roam free out on the perimeter.

[The-Power]

Not going to respond to all of that - I'll just add:

1) There's multiple full games on YouTube of Brown playing for his high school team last season - I wasn't just going off highlights. 1 of the games at GEICO Nationals, he literally took over the game with his perimeter defense, making 3 steals in a row out on the perimeter, which led to thunderous dunks on the other end by Brown. That might change your opinion about his perimeter defense.

I appreciate the reference but I prefer looking at games against better competition and closer to the draft. Especially for a player that is just a different kind of athlete. But I'll specifically focus on his perimeter defense during the upcoming games, though.

2) Draft experts have said that sometimes a player's (especially a freshman player) HS & AAU film is more valuable to watch when evaluating than his college film because many college teams played in a highly structured way, less free-flowing, more robotic, more scripted and so the players being forced to fit into a predetermined system (a system that was run before that player got to the school and will continue to be run after that player leaves the school) so often times the player (especially if they only stay at the college for 1 year) is not able to fully showcase their abilities. Michigan seems like a team that loves to pound it into the post, and not let their bigs roam free out on the perimeter.

To determine some things, maybe (although even then I'd be a bit skeptical in most cases). But generally speaking, I find HS to be way too unstructured and diluted in terms of talent. In the NBA, you will also have to play in a system and additionally next to other, more talented players. If a coach in 2021 doesn't let you shoot the ball in college, odds are that no NBA coach is going to let you coach considering that the other players around you are a lot better a scoring the basketball than your college teammates.

And my point still stands: if you actually can shoot well, you are going to shoot in college and no coach is going to stop you – especially on teams that struggle with spacing. Considering his poor FT shooting (based on all the numbers I have seen) on top of his extremely low volume on jumpers, I really don't know why you have any confidence in him actually being a decent shooter at this point. That just seems like wishful thinking and/or false projection based on highlights.

[clyde21]

Kendall's shooting deficiencies are already baked into his scouting report at this point, kinda likes Barnes last year, so not sure what the issue is, if he was a sophisticated shooter/iso guy he'd be in T1

[DCasey91]

It’d probably go:

Mobley

Clear Gap:
Barnes
Chet
Smith Jr
Banch
Cade
Green

Smith Jr is the wild card.

So last year gets probably the best player but I think this year there’ll be more of even spread of talent at the top. I think Green/Cade/Suggs 2 out of three will fail to meet expectations.

If the top 5 come draft night is - Chet, Smith Jr, Banchero, Griffin Jr, Murray I’ll happily take it over last year with Brown waiting in the wings with All Star traits to him.

i mean, if you're just playing the numbers games then one of Paolo, Jabari and Chet will also fail to meet expectations.

That is most certainly true but they have a distinct size advantage which can’t be overlooked and all have skill to varying degrees in various parts of the game even if there’s flaws in other aspects.

I mean that is a better base then not much size with the same amount of skill relative to their position.

Size most certainly matters, now size with skill? That’s always a good bet

[DCasey91]

Watch on YouTube

Still question marks on his shooting and how he’ll fill out but he’s smooth mover with a trick bag for a wing. He isn’t the most explosive player but a scoring wing potential prospect should be discussed more (along with Mathurin imo).

Also how clutch was that buzzer beater? wild lol

[EMG518]

I'm going to say Paolo and Chet > Cade and Mobley. I like this draft.

i just can't get there at this point, what is this based on?

That's perfectly fair, it's super early and alot of basketball games still to be played this season. I am way higher on Paolo than I thought I would be, I think he is actually going to be a plus defender which I wasnt aware of coming in and offensively I think he will cause problems with his size and skill set. I like him more than Cade. Chet I wish was a bit thicker, just ate a few more calories and hit the gym but I love his skill set, length and mentality and I think he could potentially be better than Mobley.

[EMG518]

I'm going to say Paolo and Chet > Cade and Mobley. I like this draft.

As a Duke fan I would love to have you sell me on the idea that Paolo is near Mobley as a prospect. I’m not seeing a Mobley level prospect in this draft. So Mobley alone makes any duo from last year better than any duo so far from this year.

I think both Chet and Paolo are better than Cade and could potentially be better than Mobley. I think Paolo will be a plus defender, similar to how Simmons wound up being a way better defender than people thought coming out of LSU but offensively he has a diverse skill set, can shoot, has great size and could be better than Mobley on offense.

[clyde21]

EJ Liddell should be a first rounder

[Duke4life831]

Ya AJ isn’t going to get consistent minutes (games with 15+ minutes) this year.

I’ve watched enough of K over the years to see how he treats the players in his rotation and the ones outside of it. When you’re in K’s rotation you have an unlimited leash, when you’re out of it you’re leash is extremely short.

Take todays game for example. In the 1st AJ got caught on a couple screens and it led to a screen. I said out loud to myself, “AJ is getting pulled after that”. He was pulled right away. This is even though The Citadel was torching Duke from the perimeter all game long. And in the 2nd when AJ first came in, the Citadel got some momentum and AJ was sent right back to the bench.

AJ is out of K’s normal rotation and K usually doesn’t change his rotation up during the season. So if you’re expecting to see more AJ as the season goes on, I wouldn’t get your hopes up.