Trade Talk (Part Nine) (READ FIRST POST)

[winforlose]

How do you figure? Having an extra double digit scorer who fixes our biggest weakness (defensive rebounding,) and allows you to move Dlo to the second unit all in one swoop. Imagine the lineups

Beverly, Ant, V8, Wood, KAT
Dlo, Nowell, MCD, Reid, Theis.

You create around 5.4 mil in space under the tax with this trade and when you trade Layman for a 2nd or combine him with 4.75 mil trade exemption you have real money to throw at someone for another improvement at the deadline. What am I missing?

Edit to add, JO or Bolmaro can replace Nowell for more defense if MCD can maintain/increase his offensive production.

I cleaned up my post from last night and am bumping it to get some opinions. I think these lineups would be deadly.

Maybe you can tell me more about Wood, because I haven’t seen enough of him. I think he can rebound, but I heard he was pretty bad defensively. Getting Theis too though would really help. I like the savings under the lux and I don’t think they get enough credit. I don’t think Vando so starts over DLo, even if it’s just team politics.

In general, MIN clearly needs another big, but I lean against these trades adding a star big man because:

1. After having no pick in last years lottery and draft, I am not confident enough in the team yet to want to trade future picks. Many of our other trade pieces don’t have a lot of value right now.

2. Most of the bigger name bigs I see in trades got those big names because they are 15-20 PPG scorers. MIN needs a big that is a threat to make an open basket if uncovered to keep Towns from being doubled and move a big out of the paint. But that guy needs to be someone who would be happy here being a fourth option, because KAT, Ant and DLo are all going to expect to get their FGA’s.

Would I love to see Myles Turner or a healthy Jonathan Isaac on this team? Sure! But it does not seem realistic to me that the Wolves would make a deal like that right now, but may aim for a lesser big.

Wood’s defensive rating is just slightly worse than KAT’s. From what I read he prefers to guard Centers but can guard PFs (but his numbers are better against Cs.) Wood is a career 36% 3 point shooter struggling this season at 30.9. He is ranked 2nd in the entire league at defensive rebounding and is averaging 9.4 defensive boards, 11.1 total boards, and 15.5 points while being the best player on the worst team. I figure playing next to KAT and Ant he gets a lot more open shots and his offense looks better. He is not a rim protector as his season and career average for blocks is .8 per game. But, the uptick in rebounding and the increase in size if V8 plays the 3 is so significant that even if he gives up an extra 10 points a game defensively (unlikely as he is replacing Dlo in the lineup,) compared to Beasley he probably nets you an extra 10-20 overall. Wood is 26 (the same age as KAT,) and has had four solid years of production. I think he KAT and Ant could be big down the line.

Dlo moving to the second unit so we can be play with size makes perfect sense. Our starting lineup would be 6’1 Beverly, 6’7 Ant, 6’9 Vando, 6’11 KAT and 6’10 Woods makes us difficult to guard. The fact that Wood can play inside or outside forces them to commit a big to him and solves the put the center on V8 problem right away. He spaces the floor and gives Ant more room to move inside.


Theis and Naz paired with MCD also excites me. Add Dlo’s shooting and passing to that mix alongside either a solid defensive player like JO or shooter like Nowell and we have a legit balanced 2nd unit.

I get not wanting to give up draft capital, but all the teams serious about contending are doing just that. Our own picks would be pretty below average the next couple seasons if I am right about the fit of these guys. If not we can move Wood and recoup some of our investment. Overall, if we want to keep our talent and add an impact big (or two in my scenario,) we need to offer picks.

[BlacJacMac]

Edit to include, I went back and checked again you are correct it is 5.4. 5.4 mil plus the value of layman’s contract plus a trade exemption worth 4.75 mil. Throw in a Bolmaro or Nowell or even Naz (he could be expendable with the other two,) and now who knows who else we could target at the deadline.

The money saved in the trade doesn't matter for anything but tax purposes. We'd still be well over the cap, so we can't relly spend that savings.

I also don't believe trade exceptions can be combined with anything else.

It's super exciting that we beat 4 bad teams in a row, but we've had the easiest SOS in the league so far. If we're still feeling like this on January 5th, then maybe its time to make a "now" move.

[minimus]

But, the uptick in rebounding and the increase in size if V8 plays the 3

Vando at 3 means that invite teams to double team Towns or to pack the paint against Edwards on every possession

[shangrila]

You never once addressed anything I said beyond sorry won’t happen or it seems unrealistic. For example why doesn’t Wood fix the rebounding problem using my lineups?

The fact that you've written an essay responding to several specific points I made would indicate I did, in fact, address the things you said, no? Unless you were expecting me to give you a thumbs up for the things you actually did get right?

In fact, I'm guessing this part comes in response to my "you don't know the team" comment, which was not about whether or not Wood helps our rebounding (duh, almost anyone would. Our rebounding is historically bad right now) and more about the fact that you think we're anywhere near contention and that Christian Wood of all people is what will push us into those heights.

Second, we still have our exemption and the buyout market might have someone we want if we are doing very well with my suggested roster moves. While staying under the tax.

Can't use the exemption to sign someone. Unless you're talking about the MLE? In which case, fine, but when was the last time anyone on the buyout market chose us over the handful of actual contenders?

Even beyond that, when was the last time a buyout candidate made an actual impact? Everyone lost their mind when Drummond got bought out last season and signed with the Lakers and he amounted to squat.

Third, Dlo came off the bench last season and we won. You could say it was all about rehab, but the truth is Dlo was ready sooner but was willing to come off the bench for a while. I think you will find he wants to win enough that he would play 6th man for a while, if only to allow us to play big ball.

Pot, meet kettle. Citation, please, because I remember DLo agreeing to that specifically due to rehab and only due to rehab.

Fourth, of course V8 can guard 3s. He switches to them all the time and does a great job. In fact he is fast enough and long enough he could probably guard 2s in a pinch. Vando and MCD are natural SFs with the length and speed to be very disruptive.

Switching and guarding a position full time are 2 very different things.

Finally, Wood fills in our rebounding gaps. His outside shooting is too good to cheat off of, so centers cannot just guard the lane and shut down Ant, (unless you think they will stick a small forward on Wood and PF on KAT while trying to have a C guard V8. Good luck with that.) On the second unit we have size, defense, and shooting. You really don’t think this fixes enough of our weaknesses to make us good enough. You don’t see Theis as better than Prince and Wood as a massive improvement over Beasley? As for trading our first and probably another from a future season, without that we won’t get a starting level big who rebounds well and can move the needle from middle of the pack to serious threat.

Good enough to what?

To win a championship? No. Hell no.

Improving the team doesn't suddenly make them contenders. The fact you think we're middle of the pack right now is, in itself, laughable. We were one of the worst in the league before we beat a couple of scrub and/or injured teams. You need to reign this optimism in, it's absurd.

Edit to include, I went back and checked again you are correct it is 5.4. 5.4 mil plus the value of layman’s contract plus a trade exemption worth 4.75 mil. Throw in a Bolmaro or Nowell or even Naz (he could be expendable with the other two,) and now who knows who else we could target at the deadline.

...so you really don't know anything about this stuff, huh?

That 5.4mil would be a trade exception, not capspace. It cannot be combined with other players or other exceptions, nor can you use the same "up to 125% matching" rule that you can in a regular trade or sign FAs with it. So 5.4mil is what you'd have to work with, along with throwing in more picks. Who's the difference maker you're getting with that? If you're going to present this as a core part of your plan you need more than just a vague "we'll get someone good, I just know it!"

So ultimately, you've just confirmed what I wrote at the end of my last post; you don't understand where the team is at, you don't know how the salary cap works and your ideas about lineups are unrealistic. Ask shrink about the cap stuff, he'll know better than me. The rest? I don't know how to help you with that. Just be prepared to be crushed when this hype train you're riding inevitably derails.

[Klomp]

Vanderbilt can defend SFs whether full-time or on switches, that's not a question. What is questionable is any semblance of offensive productivity for an offense employing him there. Just one of many holes I've seen with the proposal.

[life_saver]

Trading for Isaac would involve huge amount of risk due to his injury issues. He still hasn't come back from his ACL tear which happened like 16 months back when players these days mostly return within 12 months or even less. He has now had 2 big injuries in last couple of years.Isaac is now in his 5th season and has only played 135 games

2017-18: 27
2018-19: 75
2019-20: 34
2020-21: 0
2021-22: 0*

[BlacJacMac]

Trading for Isaac would involve huge amount of risk due to his injury issues. He still hasn't come back from his ACL tear which happened like 16 months back when players these days mostly return within 12 months or even less. He has now had 2 big injuries in last couple of years.Isaac is now in his 5th season and has only played 135 games

2017-18: 27
2018-19: 75
2019-20: 34
2020-21: 0
2021-22: 0*

You don't trade anything of value for Isaac. The risk factor is far too high.

[winforlose]

Okay I am responding to three people so I hope I address everything.

1. Wood and KAT each demand a big on defense. If either is guarded by a SF then they can go right to the basket and with a good pass get an easy bucket. Forcing a SF to guard Vando is the goal. It negates the most effective defensive strategy that has worked against us. Vando is 6’9 and good at the rim, most SFs will struggle to guard him, and not having a C in the paint will help Ant drive. Wood and KAT can both shoot the long ball and are both very efficient in the paint.

2. Wood is used to being the focus of the defense and the highest scoring player on his team most nights. When is on a competitive team and is a lower defensive priority I expect his offensive numbers to go up. His defensive numbers will also likely improve by virtue of our system, our being competitive (people play harder with something to play for,) and our leaders (Finch, Beverly, JO, V8, ect…)

3. With Wood we gain lineup flexibility. We can move V8 to the bench, or we can move Dlo to the bench. We can also play the players who are having the best game at the end. Flexibility is very valuable. As for my proof that Dlo is willing to come off the bench, here is one of the articles I remember reading last season. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.twincities.com/2021/04/20/dangelo-russell-will-continue-to-come-off-timberwolves-bench-for-now-hell-start-eventually/amp/

4. Shang is right about not being able to combine trade exemptions with players. I was confusing that with trading for multiple players with one exemption. But, having a 4.75 and 5.4 exemption can still be useful.

5. The money saved by this trade takes us further from the tax line. If we are competitive we still have our MLE to sign a buyout player. To Shang’s point about them never making a difference, I think it depends on the player and the team. If I am right that Wood and Theis fix our problems then there is no reason to think we would not be competitive and would not have a chance at a decent player via buyout. I agree this is argument requires speculation, but all trade discussion require speculation.

6. I think everything comes down to where we see this team. I see us as having five players struggling. Beasley and Prince have collapsed and are dead weight at this point. Dlo and MCD are way too inconsistent but show flashes of promise. Ant is a mixed bag for obvious reasons. Our defense have improved radically, but our defensive rebounding is garbage and our offense is inconsistent and to prone to stagnation. However, I believe all our problems are rooted in small ball. Small ball allows the opposing bigs to park in the lane and shut down the drive. Small ball allows second chance points and breaks down our defense (guys help out on the big and leave their man.) Small ball makes guys play out of position (Prince,) and limits or rotation options (Reid and Towns playing together.) Ultimatley dropping two dead weight players for two talented bigs will change more than you think.

Edit to add: Shang you are right about SOS but you are not looking at the big picture. We have the same weakness for every team to exploit and keep facing the same problem in each loss. Our winning depends on fixing that problem. We immediately become more consistent when not relying on Beasley or Prince. We solve our rebounding issue which is honestly the biggest factor in our losing (if we don’t let them have end of game second and third chance scoring we beat Memphis, Denver, and others.) We add more veteran presence with Theis and more consistent interior play. We also solve our biggest weakness in offense (opposing bigs clogging the lane.) All in all we get much better very quickly.

[minimus]

Again, you can call me crazy, but I do believe that Prince and top5 protected FRP for Favors and Dort could be the most creative way to improve this roster. Let me explain. Our current identify is built around:
1) offensive skills of Towns, Russell and Edwards
2) elite PoA defense of Beverly
3) never ending hustle of Vanderbilt
4) Beasley shooting

Given Beverly injury history I would like to have another elite PoA defender. Dort might be the best candidate because of his contract. It looks like he has same dog mentality to go under opponent skin on every possession. Favors is just a big body in the paint, who can commit a hard foul to stop opponent from scoring.

Towns/Reid/Favors
Vando/MCD/Knight
Edwards/Layman/Dort
Beverly/Beasley/Okogie
DLo/JMac/Nowell + Bolmaro

Another scenario, but within same idea: Okogie, Layman and two SRPs for D'Anthony Melton

[winforlose]

Gonna renew my trade idea of 2 2nd round picks for Paul Reed. Use the trade exemption from Prince deal to make it work. Reed is a solid rebounder, has contributed to defense with steals and blocks, and he can score in the paint. His 3 point shooting is non existent this year, but I thought I remember hearing he was solid in the G last year. He is not used enough in the Philly rotation but would help ours. Look at his per 36 numbers.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/reedpa01.html

https://gleague.nba.com/player/paul-reed/

[Note30]

Prince and an UFRP for Marcus Smart

[Neeva]

Prince and an UFRP for Marcus Smart

have you seen Smart play this season?

[Note30]

Prince and an UFRP for Marcus Smart

have you seen Smart play this season?

No I haven't has he completely **** the bed since last season?

[shrink]

We’ve talked about Daniel Theis before, but right now, his trade value is probably at its cheapest. The Rockets are giving him DNP-CD’s, he doesn’t fit their timeline (29, on the books for four years), and even one of HOU’s most ardent fans on the trade board has said they’d trade him for an expiring. They are probably concerned about having him on their books.

I definitely see how Theis could help our size-starved team. He is good, not great, at our wide variety of big man needs. He’s smart, he has some bulk (245), he needs to be guarded on an open three, he can rebound, and he’s a decent help defender. He is certainly an “above average” big man.

That said, his contract is concerning. It’s not unreasonable for his talent ($9 mil a year for four years). The problems are it’s length, and his position. Most teams, even contenders, are going cheap for their second big - even if he is a starter. Saving money there gives them more flexibility to pay for a big wing, or cover for overpays elsewhere on the team. The question isn’t whether Theis is better than a cheap big, but whether he is “enough” better to devote the extra $5 mil a year into it?

That answer may be yes. Alternative bigs are probably going to be one-way players, or miss in at least one of the categories we need out on the floor, as a compliment to KAT. Does the rise of Vando allow us to go for a cheaper back up? I don’t know.

If Theis is someone we’d give expirings for, Okogie + Layman would probably do it. Would you grab Theis for that price?

[shrink]

Small deal on December 15

ATL GETS: Josh Okogie, Jake Layman

MIN GETS: Gorgui Dieng, Solomon Hill, 2023 2nd.

Why for MIN? MIN needs a fourth big, who can defend, rebound, and needs to be guarded on the three point line. Gorgui can do all that, and he comes with the added benefit of already knowing how to play with KAT. Losing Okogie could hurt, but Solomon Hill has been a usable wing in the past. The deal also gets us a 2nd, and slides us $1.65 mil farther under the lux threshold. All these deals are expiring.

Why for ATL? The team had high expectations after last year’s amazing season, but is only 11-10. Injuries to Hunter, Bogdonacvic and Reddish (we’ll see how severe) could mean one of the NBA’s deepest teams could use some wing depth. Okogie is a poor shooter, but a very good defender and he always brings lots of energy the Hawks could use. He may re-sign for a discount next summer for the chance to stay home and he fits the timeline. Layman has been a playable wing in the past, though Okogie is the only player of these four that has gotten significant run this year.

[Note30]

Again, you can call me crazy, but I do believe that Prince and top5 protected FRP for Favors and Dort could be the most creative way to improve this roster. Let me explain. Our current identify is built around:
1) offensive skills of Towns, Russell and Edwards
2) elite PoA defense of Beverly
3) never ending hustle of Vanderbilt
4) Beasley shooting

Given Beverly injury history I would like to have another elite PoA defender. Dort might be the best candidate because of his contract. It looks like he has same dog mentality to go under opponent skin on every possession. Favors is just a big body in the paint, who can commit a hard foul to stop opponent from scoring.

Towns/Reid/Favors
Vando/MCD/Knight
Edwards/Layman/Dort
Beverly/Beasley/Okogie
DLo/JMac/Nowell + Bolmaro

Another scenario, but within same idea: Okogie, Layman and two SRPs for D'Anthony Melton

What. Dude your traded for Favors and dort, Dort would definitely be the backup over Layman.

Problem is we need another playmaker and rebounder. Dort is great but he's just an upgraded Okogie, with more upside. Not exactly what we need.

[Note30]

We’ve talked about Daniel Theis before, but right now, his trade value is probably at its cheapest. The Rockets are giving him DNP-CD’s, he doesn’t fit their timeline (29, on the books for four years), and even one of HOU’s most ardent fans on the trade board has said they’d trade him for an expiring. They are probably concerned about having him on their books.

I definitely see how Theis could help our size-starved team. He is good, not great, at our wide variety of big man needs. He’s smart, he has some bulk (245), he needs to be guarded on an open three, he can rebound, and he’s a decent help defender. He is certainly an “above average” big man.

That said, his contract is concerning. It’s not unreasonable for his talent ($9 mil a year for four years). The problems are it’s length, and his position. Most teams, even contenders, are going cheap for their second big - even if he is a starter. Saving money there gives them more flexibility to pay for a big wing, or cover for overpays elsewhere on the team. The question isn’t whether Theis is better than a cheap big, but whether he is “enough” better to devote the extra $5 mil a year into it?

That answer may be yes. Alternative bigs are probably going to be one-way players, or miss in at least one of the categories we need out on the floor, as a compliment to KAT. Does the rise of Vando allow us to go for a cheaper back up? I don’t know.

If Theis is someone we’d give expirings for, Okogie + Layman would probably do it. Would you grab Theis for that price?

Maybe, it's just that you would as you pointed out lock that salary for 4 years. Is This good enough to merit that? How much would he decline, how come Houston was the best call he got?

[winforlose]

We’ve talked about Daniel Theis before, but right now, his trade value is probably at its cheapest. The Rockets are giving him DNP-CD’s, he doesn’t fit their timeline (29, on the books for four years), and even one of HOU’s most ardent fans on the trade board has said they’d trade him for an expiring. They are probably concerned about having him on their books.

I definitely see how Theis could help our size-starved team. He is good, not great, at our wide variety of big man needs. He’s smart, he has some bulk (245), he needs to be guarded on an open three, he can rebound, and he’s a decent help defender. He is certainly an “above average” big man.

That said, his contract is concerning. It’s not unreasonable for his talent ($9 mil a year for four years). The problems are it’s length, and his position. Most teams, even contenders, are going cheap for their second big - even if he is a starter. Saving money there gives them more flexibility to pay for a big wing, or cover for overpays elsewhere on the team. The question isn’t whether Theis is better than a cheap big, but whether he is “enough” better to devote the extra $5 mil a year into it?

That answer may be yes. Alternative bigs are probably going to be one-way players, or miss in at least one of the categories we need out on the floor, as a compliment to KAT. Does the rise of Vando allow us to go for a cheaper back up? I don’t know.

If Theis is someone we’d give expirings for, Okogie + Layman would probably do it. Would you grab Theis for that price?

I value Theis but I don’t think he is by himself the answer. Watching last nights game proved to me without any doubt or hesitation we need to make a move. MCD is not good enough yet to keep himself out of foul trouble. V8 isn’t as bad, but he does find himself there as well. KAT has a history of being on the bench with fouls at some point and has fouled out more times than any of us are comfortable with in his career. We need more size. That said, Beasley no showed last night for what was probably the 15th or 16th time this season and we cannot have that. Prince hit the winner but he also scored 5 points in a starting role (in a double OT game) and didn’t do enough to justify his minutes. Any move we make needs to be THE move at this point. Theis by himself does not move the needle. We may need Layman or JO to make salaries work. Same problem with Gorgui. I like him, I wanted us to sign him, but he is not going to move the needle enough at this point. We need a Wood, or Turner, Sabonis, or Siakam, or similar style player. I really think Wood and Theis for Beasley and Prince is a great move for us because it gives us upgrades not only by size but also by expectation. Prince is around for his defense and ability to hit an open 3, that Theis strengths. Wood is a 3 point shooter less consistent than Beasley, but he still spaces the floor and gives you a similar level of defense while improving your rebounding and making you more dangerous inside the arc.

[shangrila]

Small deal on December 15

ATL GETS: Josh Okogie, Jake Layman

MIN GETS: Gorgui Dieng, Solomon Hill, 2023 2nd.

Why for MIN? MIN needs a fourth big, who can defend, rebound, and needs to be guarded on the three point line. Gorgui can do all that, and he comes with the added benefit of already knowing how to play with KAT. Losing Okogie could hurt, but Solomon Hill has been a usable wing in the past. The deal also gets us a 2nd, and slides us $1.65 mil farther under the lux threshold. All these deals are expiring.

Why for ATL? The team had high expectations after last year’s amazing season, but is only 11-10. Injuries to Hunter, Bogdonacvic and Reddish (we’ll see how severe) could mean one of the NBA’s deepest teams could use some wing depth. Okogie is a poor shooter, but a very good defender and he always brings lots of energy the Hawks could use. He may re-sign for a discount next summer for the chance to stay home and he fits the timeline. Layman has been a playable wing in the past, though Okogie is the only player of these four that has gotten significant run this year.

I doubt you get a 2nd while also shaving off 1.7mil in salary. That seems like a serious overreach.

I'd actually give up a second if we could do Prince and swap Hill for Wright.

[shrink]

I have ATL about $4 mil under the lux threshold.