2021 Draft Thread (Postdraft)

[TB]

Really love how Bones Hyland is adjusting to the NBA; he's taking a serious approach to being more under control and pass first. He was my Tyrese Maxey of this year, where you really can't go wrong with a talented player that oozes charisma and positivity. Wanted to trade back for him until Moody dropped, but still a player I'll be following a lot because he's so fun to watch.

[The-Power]

The start of this season shows yet again that young Rookies at the top of the draft are rarely contributing to winning. Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley have been the exceptions thus far and even their teams are currently better without them on the floor. Wagner is doing fine, too. Still, out of all 18 Rookies which have played at least 100 minutes, only 4 have a positive BPM; and only 1, the 46th pick, has a BPM higher than 1.

But Cunningham and Green have struggled a lot despite their tremendous talent. Suggs has been beyond terrible. Giddey has a nice all-around game but his scoring efficiency is horrible. Bouknight can't even see the floor. Even Mitchell – Mr. Ready – is struggling to score, so at this point he's mostly a pesky defender. Even Kispert and Murphy, older guys with clear roles, have not been able to play solid minutes against NBA competition overall.

These players are bound to improve, naturally. So this is just a snapshot in time and also nothing against those players. But the crowd that wanted us to pick players based on how ready they are to contribute should take this seriously. Especially considering the fact that we got players like Iguodala, Porter, Bjelica, Lee, JTA and Payton for the minimum – highly drafted Rookies are (considerably) more expensive and rarely better than even these kind of veteran players that were not particularly highly sought after.

[EvanZ]

You don't draft Davion Mitchell at 7 when you can literally waive a guy like GPII and pick him back up basically for nothing.

[and1GS]

The start of this season shows yet again that young Rookies at the top of the draft are rarely contributing to winning. Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley have been the exceptions thus far and even their teams are currently better without them on the floor. Wagner is doing fine, too. Still, out of all 18 Rookies which have played at least 100 minutes, only 4 have a positive BPM; and only 1, the 46th pick, has a BPM higher than 1.

But Cunningham and Green have struggled a lot despite their tremendous talent. Suggs has been beyond terrible. Giddey has a nice all-around game but his scoring efficiency is horrible. Bouknight can't even see the floor. Even Mitchell – Mr. Ready – is struggling to score, so at this point he's mostly a pesky defender. Even Kispert and Murphy, older guys with clear roles, have not been able to play solid minutes against NBA competition overall.

These players are bound to improve, naturally. So this is just a snapshot in time and also nothing against those players. But the crowd that wanted us to pick players based on how ready they are to contribute should take this seriously. Especially considering the fact that we got players like Iguodala, Porter, Bjelica, Lee, JTA and Payton for the minimum – highly drafted Rookies are (considerably) more expensive and rarely better than even these kind of veteran players that were not particularly highly sought after.

Great post. I had noticed some of the same and 100% agree that drafting a 'NBA ready' player isn't a viable approach. You never know who's NBA ready. Kuminga was the massive project and Moody was the day 1 contributor - but look where we are now. You need to give both time and there will be ups and downs, but unless they're over 22 you're going to need to accept that it's always a bit of a gamble. Even looking at Duarte/Davion you have one guy excelling (and frankly, hitting his ceiling already) and another contributing on one end while being erratic on the other.

I don't say this to bash on guys, but man does it show that rookies need time.

[FNQ]

Man if this is Duarte's peak, IND shouldnt be very happy. Bad defender and bad efficiency player

I dont know that you can compare Moody's situation to a lot of others. I dont know many teams run less complex system, but our system is really based on knowing how to play with Steph/Dray and now Poole in the 2nd unit, and neither is an easy task for very different reasons.

'win now' pieces for us are going to be tougher to find in the draft, because for as much BBIQ as a lot of our guys have, a lot of our offense comes down to Dray/Curry street ball, where the purpose is to get the ball to Steph and/or get out of his way, and mostly improvise off of that. Moody, for example, has fit in well defensively, but has trouble with offensive sets (nevermind the issues with his shot, which are the biggest concern). Kuminga does better because we need less from bigs, and he seems to improvise very well. He also has trouble with sets, but its less prominent from someone who's not a jumpshooter

FIT remains the biggest thing for me in the draft, and I think we still have 2 guys who fit. I didnt think Kuminga would initially, but he's looking that way. I dont think age matters as much in terms of who's ready to contribute immediately (Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley are contributing, while Mitchell/Duarte get minutes but dont help) but how your game fits into the system in the team.

[Scoots1994]

The start of this season shows yet again that young Rookies at the top of the draft are rarely contributing to winning. Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley have been the exceptions thus far and even their teams are currently better without them on the floor. Wagner is doing fine, too. Still, out of all 18 Rookies which have played at least 100 minutes, only 4 have a positive BPM; and only 1, the 46th pick, has a BPM higher than 1.

But Cunningham and Green have struggled a lot despite their tremendous talent. Suggs has been beyond terrible. Giddey has a nice all-around game but his scoring efficiency is horrible. Bouknight can't even see the floor. Even Mitchell – Mr. Ready – is struggling to score, so at this point he's mostly a pesky defender. Even Kispert and Murphy, older guys with clear roles, have not been able to play solid minutes against NBA competition overall.

These players are bound to improve, naturally. So this is just a snapshot in time and also nothing against those players. But the crowd that wanted us to pick players based on how ready they are to contribute should take this seriously. Especially considering the fact that we got players like Iguodala, Porter, Bjelica, Lee, JTA and Payton for the minimum – highly drafted Rookies are (considerably) more expensive and rarely better than even these kind of veteran players that were not particularly highly sought after.

Great post. I had noticed some of the same and 100% agree that drafting a 'NBA ready' player isn't a viable approach. You never know who's NBA ready. Kuminga was the massive project and Moody was the day 1 contributor - but look where we are now. You need to give both time and there will be ups and downs, but unless they're over 22 you're going to need to accept that it's always a bit of a gamble. Even looking at Duarte/Davion you have one guy excelling (and frankly, hitting his ceiling already) and another contributing on one end while being erratic on the other.

I don't say this to bash on guys, but man does it show that rookies need time.

From day 1 with Wiseman there was an easy comp ... in history the number of teenage big men in the NBA who contributed big to winning is a TIIIIIIIINY number. With the limitations on time high school kids can work with their coaches in place now and more limits on weight training, and while they get more time at both in college they are still strictly controlled and far more limited than in the past. Now when they get to the pros the offenses and defenses are not only far more complex they rely more on reading the action on the floor and making quick decisions on where to go with their body and the ball in every moment and the coach isn't calling out the plays but a few times a game on some teams rather than every time down the court like at the lower levels. Add to all that that they guys they are playing against are the top 1% of the last 10 years of college ball and they HAVE been in the weight room every day and have personal trainers and personal chefs to keep them at their maximum day in and day out. Then add in social media and the distractions it brings and the options it opens up. It's harder now as a young rookie than ever before. Then add to that when they go to good teams the expectations go up exponentially.

[FNQ]

Trey Murphy got a DNP-CD tonight

Thats not good considering he was a 3&D Junior

[FNQ]

Catching up with other prospects we talked about a lot:

Duarte has come back to earth, 51% TS now despite having a 42% 3pt rate (42% of his shots are 3s, this typically elevates TS)

Mitchell is playing solid defense but has a TS of 45%, 61% FT shooter, 26% from 3

Bouknight got his 1st points tonight, season high 4 minutes, still no FGs

Wagner has been solid, but also low TS (53%), but overall been a solid player IMO

Ziaire has been as raw as advertised, 43% TS (68% 3pt rate!) and poor defense

Giddey still looks like Rubio without the elite defense, but he's been better defensively than advertised. Has to work on that FT% at minimum (64% is unforgiveable for a guard without a jumper)

Barnes looks like he'll be the ROTY. So good.

Kispert also got a DNP-CD tonight, crazy considering his age and skillset. Why draft him then? Only shooting 22% from deep

Sengun has been solid but he just mostly beats up on scrubs and gets eaten alive by legit bigs

There's not been much rookie impact so far this year, and that's a bit surprising. I thought a lot of these picks could step right in and play decently, but aside from Barnes, that just hasnt happened

[The-Power]

I thought a lot of these picks could step right in and play decently, but aside from Barnes, that just hasnt happened

Mobley has stepped up, too. But yeah, don't draft Rookies to contribute immediately – it's not impossible, but it can almost never be counted on. I'm most surprised by Murphy; not only does he have a clearly defined role, he even balled out in SL and pre-season (iirc).

[Scoots1994]

This draft class had HUGE potential, but it also had less experience and less available data than any other draft class in history with the extreme level of youth in the draft and covid. Pretty much every single player in the lottery had significant questions about their game to be answered.

I think the trends in the modern NBA lead by the Warriors have made it harder on rookies to contribute right away too.

[FNQ]

I thought a lot of these picks could step right in and play decently, but aside from Barnes, that just hasnt happened

Mobley has stepped up, too. But yeah, don't draft Rookies to contribute immediately – it's not impossible, but it can almost never be counted on. I'm most surprised by Murphy; not only does he have a clearly defined role, he even balled out in SL and pre-season (iirc).

Definitely, and I think if we're counting players who weren't really on our radar, Cade will make the list soon too. His 3pt shot has been off, but his floor game looks great and the Grant Hill comps looks pretty accurate.. I think he'll start having Hill-like seasons when he turns 22 (Hill's rookie age), but even this season I can see him being impactful, because he's not going to shoot 23% from 3 all season

SRP like Herb Jones (D specialist) and JRE (all-around backup big) have been solid in their roles too, albeit on losing teams so its not going to be appreciated much.

Will say though, a lot of it is opportunity. A lot of rookies arent getting opportunities like typical rookies would, aside from the top 10 picks in the draft (less Kuminga). Starting at pick 11, you start seeing a lot of players getting DNP-CDs.. maybe I havent paid much attention to other teams lotto picks recently, but that doesnt seem like the norm

[Scoots1994]

I thought a lot of these picks could step right in and play decently, but aside from Barnes, that just hasnt happened

Mobley has stepped up, too. But yeah, don't draft Rookies to contribute immediately – it's not impossible, but it can almost never be counted on. I'm most surprised by Murphy; not only does he have a clearly defined role, he even balled out in SL and pre-season (iirc).

Definitely, and I think if we're counting players who weren't really on our radar, Cade will make the list soon too. His 3pt shot has been off, but his floor game looks great and the Grant Hill comps looks pretty accurate.. I think he'll start having Hill-like seasons when he turns 22 (Hill's rookie age), but even this season I can see him being impactful, because he's not going to shoot 23% from 3 all season

SRP like Herb Jones (D specialist) and JRE (all-around backup big) have been solid in their roles too, albeit on losing teams so its not going to be appreciated much.

Will say though, a lot of it is opportunity. A lot of rookies arent getting opportunities like typical rookies would, aside from the top 10 picks in the draft (less Kuminga). Starting at pick 11, you start seeing a lot of players getting DNP-CDs.. maybe I havent paid much attention to other teams lotto picks recently, but that doesnt seem like the norm

Basically a lost year plus of High School, AAU, and some college ball meant that the top young rookies all lost critical time developing their games so they are collectively less ready than the typical class of the recent past.

[watch1958]

Moody & Kuminga to Santa Cruz

[azwfan]

Moody & Kuminga to Santa Cruz

Watch on YouTube

Moses Moody also went for 21.

[watch1958]

Kuminga jumper looks much improved

[watch1958]

Kuminga & Moody both got extended run again.

[TB]

The Magic game gave us the perfect Franz vs Kuminga comparison. And I think it was a positive for both players and both teams.

Franz is already a great all-around player, yet it was clear Kuminga has the higher ceiling. There is no "answer" at this point since we don't know how these players will develop. But at this point I think its easy enough to say that both teams should be pretty happy with their selections. And I don't see anyone else selected after them that would enter the conversation.

[Scoots1994]

The Magic game gave us the perfect Franz vs Kuminga comparison. And I think it was a positive for both players and both teams.

Franz is already a great all-around player, yet it was clear Kuminga has the higher ceiling. There is no "answer" at this point since we don't know how these players will develop. But at this point I think its easy enough to say that both teams should be pretty happy with their selections. And I don't see anyone else selected after them that would enter the conversation.

Let's not throw around words like "great" for Franz just yet.

I did enjoy watching all the rookie play though.

[TB]

The Magic game gave us the perfect Franz vs Kuminga comparison. And I think it was a positive for both players and both teams.

Franz is already a great all-around player, yet it was clear Kuminga has the higher ceiling. There is no "answer" at this point since we don't know how these players will develop. But at this point I think its easy enough to say that both teams should be pretty happy with their selections. And I don't see anyone else selected after them that would enter the conversation.

Let's not throw around words like "great" for Franz just yet.

I did enjoy watching all the rookie play though.

Fair. Great for a young rookie, especially when considering attributes like game feel and bbiq. One of the better players on a really bad team.

[FNQ]

Duarte resurrected tonight, and man did he need it. After his hot start his 3pt plummeted to 34.6% (42% FG, 71% FT) along with a .509 TS%

Tonight: 9-11, 2-2 3pt, 3-4 from the line.. and most impressively, 6 assists.
Knicks got mollywhopped by the Pacers starters tonight. Only cared because I had Sabonis starting in DFS and man did he come through

Too bad I also started Giannis though