Steph Curry is +500 for Mvp

[JN61]

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Yikes. No wonder they lost to the Grizzlies last year and choked in 2016 and 2019.

Im pretty sure its someone elses fault.

2016 finals:

Game 1:
At start of 4th quarter:
68 Cavs vs 74 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/2 FG, 2 assists 1 rebound, 1 TOV, -1


Game 2:
At start of 4th quarter:
62 Cavs vs 82 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 assists, 2 trb, +9


Game 3:
At start of 4th quarter:
89 Cavs vs 69 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
4 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 TOV, -2


Game 4:
At start of 4th quarter:
77 Cavs vs 79 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
13 pts, 3 trb, 2 stl, 1 tov, +9


Game 5:
At start of 4th quarter:
93 Cavs vs 84 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
7 pts, 3/8 fg, 3 trb, 1 ast, 1 block, -7


Game 6:
At start of 4th quarter:
80 Cavs vs 71 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
5 pts, 2/6 fg, 1 trb, 0 assist, -4


Game 7:
At start of 4th quarter:
75 Cavs vs 76 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/6 fg, 1 tov

So we can conclude from this that first few games doesn't really matter because they were blowouts before 4th quarters and Curry ended up just playing just 4 minutes on average on the 4th quarter on those first 3 games. So we can pretty much remove those from the conclusion because none of those games went to the last minutes. And anyway if we would include those blowout games into this his averages would look even worse so there is that.

So we can take games 4 to 7 to calculation and see Curry was very good on the 4th game where they pushed the infamous 3-1 lead on the Cavs. However all the rest of the games when it was the closing time Curry turned into massive negative on the crunch time with unklutch turnovers and poor shooting:

Games 4-7 Curry on the 4th:
7 ppg, 9/25 FG (36% FG), 4/13 3pt (30%), 6/6 ft (got all of them in one game), 1.75 TRB, 0.25 ast, 0.5 TOV, 1 PF, -3

He was just dreadful. Making no plays and bricking all of his shots. His scoring looks better than it was because one single game.

And I can't be bothered to do the game by game analysis of 2019 but here are the 4th quarter summary:
Curry:
5.66 ppg, 1.2 TRB, 1.3 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.67 PF, -15 +/-

on shooting splits of:
9/26 34.6% FG, 2/12 16.7% 3pt, 14/14 FT 100%. So only saving stat of Curry's 2019 finals 4th quarter was his FT shooting. Without it he was scoring just 3.33 ppg on the 4th.

He is dreadful when stakes are highest and always has been. That is the reason why he doesn't have FMVP for example. He adds nothing to the table but his shooting. He is massive negative on the defensive side (thankfully Warriors can hide him) and he doesn't make his teammates better with his playmaking.

[Marrrcuss]

I didnt use the green font, my bad

[GSP]

Not a lock, but an attractive price.

Its a lock

[Lalouie]

it's almost kind of a whittling down process of elimination. i'm not denedgrating curry, he's been fab, but there's no competition,,,like literally.

i think we'd have to see something extraordinary from phx

[Peregrine01]

A lot of good odds going into the season to bet on the Warriors. I thought they'd be good, but not THIS good. They're smacking teams left and right like it's 2016 again.

[Bobbcats]

it's almost kind of a whittling down process of elimination. i'm not denedgrating curry, he's been fab, but there's no competition,,,like literally.

i think we'd have to see something extraordinary from phx

Phoenix is way too balanced, Book or CP3 don't stand out statistically. There's still plenty of time for the Warriors to have problems (Steph or Draymond injury) or for the Nets to get better to say there's no competition.

[michaelm]

Yikes. No wonder they lost to the Grizzlies last year and choked in 2016 and 2019.

Im pretty sure its someone elses fault.

2016 finals:

Game 1:
At start of 4th quarter:
68 Cavs vs 74 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/2 FG, 2 assists 1 rebound, 1 TOV, -1


Game 2:
At start of 4th quarter:
62 Cavs vs 82 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 assists, 2 trb, +9


Game 3:
At start of 4th quarter:
89 Cavs vs 69 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
4 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 TOV, -2


Game 4:
At start of 4th quarter:
77 Cavs vs 79 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
13 pts, 3 trb, 2 stl, 1 tov, +9


Game 5:
At start of 4th quarter:
93 Cavs vs 84 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
7 pts, 3/8 fg, 3 trb, 1 ast, 1 block, -7


Game 6:
At start of 4th quarter:
80 Cavs vs 71 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
5 pts, 2/6 fg, 1 trb, 0 assist, -4


Game 7:
At start of 4th quarter:
75 Cavs vs 76 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/6 fg, 1 tov

So we can conclude from this that first few games doesn't really matter because they were blowouts before 4th quarters and Curry ended up just playing just 4 minutes on average on the 4th quarter on those first 3 games. So we can pretty much remove those from the conclusion because none of those games went to the last minutes. And anyway if we would include those blowout games into this his averages would look even worse so there is that.

So we can take games 4 to 7 to calculation and see Curry was very good on the 4th game where they pushed the infamous 3-1 lead on the Cavs. However all the rest of the games when it was the closing time Curry turned into massive negative on the crunch time with unklutch turnovers and poor shooting:

Games 4-7 Curry on the 4th:
7 ppg, 9/25 FG (36% FG), 4/13 3pt (30%), 6/6 ft (got all of them in one game), 1.75 TRB, 0.25 ast, 0.5 TOV, 1 PF, -3

He was just dreadful. Making no plays and bricking all of his shots. His scoring looks better than it was because one single game.

And I can't be bothered to do the game by game analysis of 2019 but here are the 4th quarter summary:
Curry:
5.66 ppg, 1.2 TRB, 1.3 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.67 PF, -15 +/-

on shooting splits of:
9/26 34.6% FG, 2/12 16.7% 3pt, 14/14 FT 100%. So only saving stat of Curry's 2019 finals 4th quarter was his FT shooting. Without it he was scoring just 3.33 ppg on the 4th.

He is dreadful when stakes are highest and always has been. That is the reason why he doesn't have FMVP for example. He adds nothing to the table but his shooting. He is massive negative on the defensive side (thankfully Warriors can hide him) and he doesn't make his teammates better with his playmaking.

As I said to another poster, it is great as a Curry fan to see how much he annoys people like you.

Of course you ignore the 18 out of 20 play off series he/GSW won over a 5 year period, in most of which he was the most important player, and It is unlikely Michael Jordan could have won with the cast left to Curry at the end of the 2019 finals ie one other healthy starter in Green who was pretty much a non scorer. The top heavy roster GSW made deliberate choices to have is on them of course, but hardly on Curry who unlike some others doesn’t act as GM for his teams.

[BoatsNZones]

it's almost kind of a whittling down process of elimination. i'm not denedgrating curry, he's been fab, but there's no competition,,,like literally.

i think we'd have to see something extraordinary from phx

We’re only 20% of the way into the season, nothing is over. With KD killing it in his own right and the Nets in 1st place themselves, that is absolutely competition (why don’t you think so?). Others will likely present themselves as well. Giannis for one is absolutely beasting and will have a strong MVP case as the Bucks continue to get healthy and rack up wins. It’s Curry’s now, but we’re not even in 2022, hell we’re not even in December.

[WarriorGM]

It's a long ways yet and we'll have to see how things go against the Suns but at this rate the more interesting relevant odds might be the one for unanimous MVP.

[Lalouie]

it's almost kind of a whittling down process of elimination. i'm not denedgrating curry, he's been fab, but there's no competition,,,like literally.

i think we'd have to see something extraordinary from phx

Phoenix is way too balanced, Book or CP3 don't stand out statistically. There's still plenty of time for the Warriors to have problems (Steph or Draymond injury) or for the Nets to get better to say there's no competition.

yes,,,there will always be the split vote thing

[BoatsNZones]

Im pretty sure its someone elses fault.

2016 finals:

Game 1:
At start of 4th quarter:
68 Cavs vs 74 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/2 FG, 2 assists 1 rebound, 1 TOV, -1


Game 2:
At start of 4th quarter:
62 Cavs vs 82 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 assists, 2 trb, +9


Game 3:
At start of 4th quarter:
89 Cavs vs 69 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
4 pts, 1/1 FG, 1 TOV, -2


Game 4:
At start of 4th quarter:
77 Cavs vs 79 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
13 pts, 3 trb, 2 stl, 1 tov, +9


Game 5:
At start of 4th quarter:
93 Cavs vs 84 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
7 pts, 3/8 fg, 3 trb, 1 ast, 1 block, -7


Game 6:
At start of 4th quarter:
80 Cavs vs 71 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
5 pts, 2/6 fg, 1 trb, 0 assist, -4


Game 7:
At start of 4th quarter:
75 Cavs vs 76 Warriors

Curry on the 4th:
3 pts, 1/6 fg, 1 tov

So we can conclude from this that first few games doesn't really matter because they were blowouts before 4th quarters and Curry ended up just playing just 4 minutes on average on the 4th quarter on those first 3 games. So we can pretty much remove those from the conclusion because none of those games went to the last minutes. And anyway if we would include those blowout games into this his averages would look even worse so there is that.

So we can take games 4 to 7 to calculation and see Curry was very good on the 4th game where they pushed the infamous 3-1 lead on the Cavs. However all the rest of the games when it was the closing time Curry turned into massive negative on the crunch time with unklutch turnovers and poor shooting:

Games 4-7 Curry on the 4th:
7 ppg, 9/25 FG (36% FG), 4/13 3pt (30%), 6/6 ft (got all of them in one game), 1.75 TRB, 0.25 ast, 0.5 TOV, 1 PF, -3

He was just dreadful. Making no plays and bricking all of his shots. His scoring looks better than it was because one single game.

And I can't be bothered to do the game by game analysis of 2019 but here are the 4th quarter summary:
Curry:
5.66 ppg, 1.2 TRB, 1.3 AST, 0.3 STL, 0.67 PF, -15 +/-

on shooting splits of:
9/26 34.6% FG, 2/12 16.7% 3pt, 14/14 FT 100%. So only saving stat of Curry's 2019 finals 4th quarter was his FT shooting. Without it he was scoring just 3.33 ppg on the 4th.

He is dreadful when stakes are highest and always has been. That is the reason why he doesn't have FMVP for example. He adds nothing to the table but his shooting. He is massive negative on the defensive side (thankfully Warriors can hide him) and he doesn't make his teammates better with his playmaking.

As I said to another poster, it is great as a Curry fan to see how much he annoys people like you.

Of course you ignore the 18 out of 20 play off series he/GSW won over a 5 year period, in most of which he was the most important player, and It is unlikely Michael Jordan could have won with the cast left to Curry at the end of the 2019 finals ie one other healthy starter in Green who was pretty much a non scorer. The top heavy roster GSW made deliberate choices to have is on them of course, but hardly on Curry who unlike some others doesn’t act as GM for his teams.

Curry was also by far the most dominant player in the 4th quarter last year and consistently crushes in 4th quarters (has multiple finals statistical 4th point total records for doing so). JN has a vendetta. Curry has hurt him.

[dautjazz]

Considering Curry's injury history, it definitely isn't even close to a lock

Exactly. We're a month in, I way too early for a "lock". Giannis and Durant aren't that far behind either. If Curry plays 70+ games at this level, he'd be my pick for MVP, but if he misses significant time, it's going to be someone else.

[dautjazz]

I would suggest not ruling out guys like Luka, Trae, Mitchell, Booker, Lavine

Also I don’t see why Jokic can’t repeat. If the nuggets manage a top 3 seed with Murray out for so long, he’s definitely in the discussion again

It’s an interesting option at +500 but it’s far from a lock

Jokic could repeat if the Nuggets end up with a great record, but with all the injuries I don't like chances. I can't see the other guys you mentioned having much of a chance at getting the MVP. I'd take Curry, Giannis, and Durant over them easily.

[Optms]

Dubs are 18-2.

They were not even projected top 5. Curry is the runaway choice. Saying otherwise is just trying to be cute. This man is carrying a team of no stars to 60 wins. Simply amazing.

[BoatsNZones]

Considering Curry's injury history, it definitely isn't even close to a lock

Exactly. We're a month in, I way too early for a "lock". Giannis and Durant aren't that far behind either. If Curry plays 70+ games at this level, he'd be my pick for MVP, but if he misses significant time, it's going to be someone else.

Injuries aren’t really a thing for Curry over any other player at this point. That narrative has persisted for little reason. He’s played virtually all year in 7 of the last 8 seasons. Still, he could easily lose if there is another freak injury or to Giannis/KD, etc. Jokic should be in the running, but NBA voters have not wisened up as much as the MLB crowd towards lower seeds who are being absolutely carried.

[Optms]

Considering Curry's injury history, it definitely isn't even close to a lock

Exactly. We're a month in, I way too early for a "lock". Giannis and Durant aren't that far behind either. If Curry plays 70+ games at this level, he'd be my pick for MVP, but if he misses significant time, it's going to be someone else.

Injuries aren’t really a thing for Curry over any other player at this point. That narrative has persisted for little reason. He’s played virtually all year in 7 of the last 8 seasons. Still, he could easily lose if there is another freak injury or to Giannis/KD, etc. Jokic should be in the running, but NBA voters have not wisened up as much as the MLB crowd towards lower seeds who are being absolutely carried.

And you will not see it apply to other leagues because MLB is completely different. One player, no matter how great or what position he plays, will have almost no effect on a team's W/L record in baseball. This is not the case in the NBA or the NFL. Where we see stars like Lebron, Curry, Harden, CP3, carry scrub teams to the playoffs. Baseball is much more of a team sport in terms of record. You need pitching, hitting and defense at most positions just to win. One player will never move the needle.

[BoatsNZones]

Exactly. We're a month in, I way too early for a "lock". Giannis and Durant aren't that far behind either. If Curry plays 70+ games at this level, he'd be my pick for MVP, but if he misses significant time, it's going to be someone else.

Injuries aren’t really a thing for Curry over any other player at this point. That narrative has persisted for little reason. He’s played virtually all year in 7 of the last 8 seasons. Still, he could easily lose if there is another freak injury or to Giannis/KD, etc. Jokic should be in the running, but NBA voters have not wisened up as much as the MLB crowd towards lower seeds who are being absolutely carried.

And you will not see it apply to other leagues because MLB is completely different. One player, no matter how great or what position he plays, will have almost no effect on a team's W/L record in baseball. This is not the case in the NBA or the NFL. Where we see stars like Lebron, Curry, Harden, CP3, carry scrub teams to the playoffs. Baseball is much more of a team sport in terms of record. You need pitching, hitting and defense at most positions just to win. One player will never move the needle.

That part is understood by most (although you are undervaluing an MLB players impact and overstating an NBA players impact), but in 95% of seasons you have to be a top 3 seed to win MVP. The best season in NBA history can’t carry these Nuggets to a top 3 seed. We’ve seen MJ as a DPOY caliber guard and a top 2 offensive player not lead his team to .500 (3rd year). You can only impact so much.

[playoffs]

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[reload141]

GSP making a lot of people look stupid so far.

[alevirfe]

odds are now 1.4:1, so definitely no longer an attractive bet