2022 NBA Draft

[clyde21]

I think you can interpret these data points in two different ways. The one, which is how you do it, is to say: these kind of guys are available later on, so don't take them earlier because it's a waste of value. Another one is to say: well, these guys should have been taken earlier in retrospect, so if you're confident your prospect is going to develop into one of those players (which Gobert obviously being the high-end outcome), then you should make sure to get and use your pick on them – even if that pick is higher than 25.

I would say it would be best to trade down to get them. Its kind of like RBs in the NFL (if youre a NFL fan). You can love a RB prospect, but that doesnt mean you should waste a top 10 pick on one (unless they're straight up freak prospects).

Derrick Henry: 2nd round
Dalvin Cook: 2nd round
Jonathan Taylor: 2nd round
Joe Mixon: 2nd round
Nick Chubb: 2nd round

The top 5 rushing leaders in the NFL right now are all 2nd round picks. RBs are kind of like 5s in the NBA right now. If a true freak prospect comes around, sure totally makes sense to take them high. But if they arent freaks, you can get them at great value later on.

And again to be clear, Im not saying raw athletic big men wont be better than top 25 in their draft. But at the current market value, that is where their value is at. So say youre a team that loves Mark Williams and youre sitting at 11 in the draft. Even if you love Mark Williams, I dont think you should take him at 11, you should trade down to the 20s to get him. And if he is gone by then, great chance you can still find another big man in the 20s.

I just think there is a pretty good amount of data that shows that is where the draft value is for those kinds of bigs.

Some people think Duren is a freak - especially given how young he is..

ooo man big muscles man jump high must be top5

[clyde21]

btw, these young cats who are overdeveloped physically at such a young age are a much more of a red flag than people think. at some point everyone else catches up with them and more often than not they NEVER have the skills to compensate for the lack of physical difference they once had.

[Hal14]

like, why would you take Collins or Duren in the lotto when you can take a guy like Tshiebwe in the late first or early second? it makes no sense. is the value add from Collins/Duren that much more because they are a couple of yrs younger despite being the same archetype?

I agree with your point in general, but I would hesitate on lumping Collins (and even Diabate) in with Duren.

They haven't shown it as much in college, but if you watch their pre-college film, both Collins and Diabate showed good ability to hit the 3 and put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble, along with being highly athletic dudes with good mobility and potential for defending in space on the perimeter.

In their pre-college tape, they looked much closer to the Giannis/AD archetype than the Capela/Steven Adams archetype.

Michigan and Kentucky have highly structured systems which can often times limit a players freedom and limit their ability to showcase everything they can do.

Plus, it's still very early in the season and Collins/Diabate might show more of their skills as the season goes on.

[Duke4life831]

I think you can interpret these data points in two different ways. The one, which is how you do it, is to say: these kind of guys are available later on, so don't take them earlier because it's a waste of value. Another one is to say: well, these guys should have been taken earlier in retrospect, so if you're confident your prospect is going to develop into one of those players (which Gobert obviously being the high-end outcome), then you should make sure to get and use your pick on them – even if that pick is higher than 25.

I would say it would be best to trade down to get them. Its kind of like RBs in the NFL (if youre a NFL fan). You can love a RB prospect, but that doesnt mean you should waste a top 10 pick on one (unless they're straight up freak prospects).

Derrick Henry: 2nd round
Dalvin Cook: 2nd round
Jonathan Taylor: 2nd round
Joe Mixon: 2nd round
Nick Chubb: 2nd round

The top 5 rushing leaders in the NFL right now are all 2nd round picks. RBs are kind of like 5s in the NBA right now. If a true freak prospect comes around, sure totally makes sense to take them high. But if they arent freaks, you can get them at great value later on.

And again to be clear, Im not saying raw athletic big men wont be better than top 25 in their draft. But at the current market value, that is where their value is at. So say youre a team that loves Mark Williams and youre sitting at 11 in the draft. Even if you love Mark Williams, I dont think you should take him at 11, you should trade down to the 20s to get him. And if he is gone by then, great chance you can still find another big man in the 20s.

I just think there is a pretty good amount of data that shows that is where the draft value is for those kinds of bigs.

Some people think Duren is a freak - especially given how young he is..

If they think that, then they're wrong. There is a clear difference between Duren as a prospect and Embiid.

Where is his freak attributes on the offensive end? No wow perimeter skills, no wow low post footwork, no real showing of advanced playmaking. Ya he has great physical attributes, but so did Robert Williams. Robert Williams was a really strong dude with a big wingspan and ridiculous explosion. He also flashed a little passing ability as well. He went late 1st.

If he was a freak prospect, Id expect him to be having a bigger impact at the college level. He was averaging 15/11 against tiny mid major teams. His last 2 games were his first games against power conference teams, he averaged 4/6 on 36% shooting, 1.5 blocks and 3 turnovers.

Ya he is a strong athletic big man. Im not doubting his physical profile. But again you can get centers with great physical profiles late in the draft. Again Mark Williams is currently listed at 7 feet, with a 7'7 wingspan and a 9'8 standing reach, and he runs the floor extremely well for a man his size. Mark Williams also is much more advanced when it comes to defensive awareness and positioning. I dont think Mark Williams should go early in the draft.

[clyde21]

like, why would you take Collins or Duren in the lotto when you can take a guy like Tshiebwe in the late first or early second? it makes no sense. is the value add from Collins/Duren that much more because they are a couple of yrs younger despite being the same archetype?

I agree with your point in general, but I would hesitate on lumping Collins (and even Diabate) in with Duren.

They haven't shown it as much in college, but if you watch their pre-college film, both Collins and Diabate showed good ability to hit the 3 and put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble, along with being highly athletic dudes with good mobility and potential for defending in space on the perimeter.

In their pre-college tape, they looked much closer to the Giannis/AD archetype than the Capela/Steven Adams archetype.

Michigan and Kentucky have highly structured systems which can often times limit a players freedom and limit their ability to showcase everything they can do.

Plus, it's still very early in the season and Collins/Diabate might show more of their skills as the season goes on.

Diabiate is way different than Duren/Collins, i'm talking about Collins/Duren and other single level centers that people every year think they should be lotto picks

not sure how/when Diabate made his way into this discussion

[Duke4life831]

btw, these young cats who are overdeveloped physically at such a young age are a much more of a red flag than people think. at some point everyone else catches up with them and more often than not they NEVER have the skills to compensate for the lack of physical difference they once had.

Yup. Y'all remember Cliff Alexander. Big strong athletic 6'9 guy with a 7'3.5" wingspan in the KAT, Okafor recruiting class. Cliff was dominant in high school and was ranked ahead of KAT going into the college season.

Not saying Duren is Cliff Alexander, he is a little bigger and the better overall athlete. But ya, we've seen countless bigs that just matured earlier than everyone else and had a dominate high school career and built up a big reputation. To only get squashed once they started going up against guys their size and bigger every night.

[The-Power]

And again to be clear, Im not saying raw athletic big men wont be better than top 25 in their draft. But at the current market value, that is where their value is at. So say youre a team that loves Mark Williams and youre sitting at 11 in the draft. Even if you love Mark Williams, I dont think you should take him at 11, you should trade down to the 20s to get him. And if he is gone by then, great chance you can still find another big man in the 20s.

I guess my main counterpoint to that would be to point out that despite some raw big men that were picked in the late first or early second working out, it's certainly far from all of them. So if you believe one prospect has what it takes to be the kind of player you listed, you can't just have an attitude of saying ‘well, then we'll just take another raw athletic big instead if he's gone by the time we pick’ (which doesn't mean you shouldn't trade down if your intel suggests he'll be on the board later on or if you're between two such players anyways; that's another matter).

Now, if your point is that it is a total crapshoot and you don't know which athletic big men will turn out to be good and justify a high(er) draft pick, that's another conversation to have. I just don't believe you can say ‘never take such bigs high in the draft’ when recent years have shown that a bunch of them would have been totally fine picks earlier in the draft in retrospect. That is, if you can confidently project how such a prospect is going to develop (which may or may not be possible), you shouldn't rule out taking that player with whatever pick you feel is adequate.

Lastly, I think we should be really careful to not let how players turn out influence how we talk about them as prospects. What I mean is that we may have a tendency to look at athletic players who developed their skills in the NBA and retrospectively ascribe to them more skills – or less rawness – than we otherwise would. For instance, if AD or Embiid never worked out, we may look back at them and claim ‘well, they were just raw athletic bigs that were drafted too high’ whereas now, we'd be inclined to say ‘these guys were never raw to begin with, so they don't count’. And to be clear, those are just two examples off the top of my head to illustrate a point – I'm not at all claiming that these dudes are comparable to, say, Duren or some of the lower-ranked big men that obviously never projected to be as talented as these two guys.

Oh, and on a final note: I'm not at all pushing for Duren or any other particular athletic big in this draft to be picked this very high. I am actually relatively careful myself (I had a lot of doubts about Bamba, for instance) and have become more careful over time. I just don't fully subscribe to the ‘absoluteness’ I see in some of the statements.

[Hal14]

we even had these convos about Wiseman, and the Warriors are learning the hard way right now about why you don't draft this archetype high, could've had half a dozen players who would've been much more scalable in today's NBA than Wiseman.

there is a time and place for these players, but it's not in the top10 or lotto. some of yall need to get with the program already.

I agree with your point, but you don't have to talk down to people like that. I'm pretty sure every major media outlet (as well as all the nerds on Draft Twitter) have Duren projected to go in the top 10 right now. ESPN has Duren no. 4 right now:

https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

Look at ESPN's big board, link above. Duren is no. 4, Mark Williams no. 15, Nzosa no. 20 and Diop no. 24..

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with Duren outside of the top 10 on their big board (outside of this forum)..

[The-Power]

we even had these convos about Wiseman, and the Warriors are learning the hard way right now about why you don't draft this archetype high, could've had half a dozen players who would've been much more scalable in today's NBA than Wiseman.

there is a time and place for these players, but it's not in the top10 or lotto. some of yall need to get with the program already.

May I ask what has changed for you specifically since 2018? Because I recall you having both Bamba and Ayton as your top guys at some point, and neither is the archetype Duke is talking about. It's also way too early to draw any conclusions about Wiseman's long-term fit and value because he simply hasn't played enough yet – but if we're talking about archetype, I see him pretty much in the Ayton mold (with some different strengths and weaknesses, of course).

[Hal14]

like, why would you take Collins or Duren in the lotto when you can take a guy like Tshiebwe in the late first or early second? it makes no sense. is the value add from Collins/Duren that much more because they are a couple of yrs younger despite being the same archetype?

I agree with your point in general, but I would hesitate on lumping Collins (and even Diabate) in with Duren.

They haven't shown it as much in college, but if you watch their pre-college film, both Collins and Diabate showed good ability to hit the 3 and put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble, along with being highly athletic dudes with good mobility and potential for defending in space on the perimeter.

In their pre-college tape, they looked much closer to the Giannis/AD archetype than the Capela/Steven Adams archetype.

Michigan and Kentucky have highly structured systems which can often times limit a players freedom and limit their ability to showcase everything they can do.

Plus, it's still very early in the season and Collins/Diabate might show more of their skills as the season goes on.

Diabiate is way different than Duren/Collins, i'm talking about Collins/Duren and other single level centers that people every year think they should be lotto picks

not sure how/when Diabate made his way into this discussion

He made it into the conversation because when you break down the high school footage, Diabate and Collins have fairly similar games and fairly similar in terms of ability. Both were 5 star recruits. If you watch the HS film, neither was a single level scorer. Both were 3 level scorers who could run well, jump well, finish high above the rim, block shots, lead the break and put the ball on the floor. Most are things you didn't see Duren do in HS.

Most people don't have Diabate or Collins as a lotto pick - I am higher on both of them than most people so I think they both have a shot..

[dukeknicksirish]

AJ Griffin's injury/raw playing ability (these are his first real games in 2 years) so far have kept him from getting real game experience. With saying this, if he stock doesn't rise like he expects it to, is it possible he returns to Duke to play along the #1 recruiting class in the country at Duke??

Jon Scheyer's first year would consist of retrunees : Jeremey Roach , Jaylen Blakes, AJ Griffin, Joey Baker

New Comers : Dereck Lively #1, Dariq Whitehead #4, Kyle Filipowski #7, Jaden Schutt #55

Jeremey Roach / AJ Griffin / Dariq Whitehead / Klyle Filipowski / Dereck Lively would be one of the longest *pause* teams in college basketball

[clyde21]

we even had these convos about Wiseman, and the Warriors are learning the hard way right now about why you don't draft this archetype high, could've had half a dozen players who would've been much more scalable in today's NBA than Wiseman.

there is a time and place for these players, but it's not in the top10 or lotto. some of yall need to get with the program already.

I agree with your point, but you don't have to talk down to people like that. I'm pretty sure every major media outlet (as well as all the nerds on Draft Twitter) have Duren projected to go in the top 10 right now. ESPN has Duren no. 4 right now:

https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

Look at ESPN's big board, link above. Duren is no. 4, Mark Williams no. 15, Nzosa no. 20 and Diop no. 24..

You'd be hard pressed to find anyone with Duren outside of the top 10 on their big board (outside of this forum)..

major media outlets are always the last to the party

[clyde21]

I agree with your point in general, but I would hesitate on lumping Collins (and even Diabate) in with Duren.

They haven't shown it as much in college, but if you watch their pre-college film, both Collins and Diabate showed good ability to hit the 3 and put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble, along with being highly athletic dudes with good mobility and potential for defending in space on the perimeter.

In their pre-college tape, they looked much closer to the Giannis/AD archetype than the Capela/Steven Adams archetype.

Michigan and Kentucky have highly structured systems which can often times limit a players freedom and limit their ability to showcase everything they can do.

Plus, it's still very early in the season and Collins/Diabate might show more of their skills as the season goes on.

Diabiate is way different than Duren/Collins, i'm talking about Collins/Duren and other single level centers that people every year think they should be lotto picks

not sure how/when Diabate made his way into this discussion

He made it into the conversation because when you break down the high school footage, Diabate and Collins have fairly similar games and fairly similar in terms of ability. Both were 5 star recruits. If you watch the HS film, neither was a single level scorer. Both were 3 level scorers who could run well, jump well, finish high above the rim, block shots, lead the break and put the ball on the floor. Most are things you didn't see Duren do in HS.

Most people don't have Diabate or Collins as a lotto pick - I am higher on both of them than most people so I think they both have a shot..

no they don't? what HS footage? Diabate was playing in Europe before this.

[clyde21]

here is my thread about Diabate from 2019 btw

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1916502&p=80676555&hilit=Moussa+Diabate#p80676555

[ItsDanger]

I'd lean towards Duren if I had 2 legit offensive players already. Otherwise, a C is a better value pick later. Got to favor offense in the lottery.

[Duke4life831]

And again to be clear, Im not saying raw athletic big men wont be better than top 25 in their draft. But at the current market value, that is where their value is at. So say youre a team that loves Mark Williams and youre sitting at 11 in the draft. Even if you love Mark Williams, I dont think you should take him at 11, you should trade down to the 20s to get him. And if he is gone by then, great chance you can still find another big man in the 20s.

I guess my main counterpoint to that would be to point out that despite some raw big men that were picked in the late first or early second working out, it's certainly far from all of them. So if you believe one prospect has what it takes to be the kind of player you listed, you can't just have an attitude of saying ‘well, then we'll just take another raw athletic big instead if he's gone by the time we pick’ (which doesn't mean you shouldn't trade down if your intel suggests he'll be on the board later on or if you're between two such players anyways; that's another matter).

Now, if your point is that it is a total crapshoot and you don't know which athletic big men will turn out to be good and justify a high(er) draft pick, that's another conversation to have. I just don't believe you can say ‘never take such bigs high in the draft’ when recent years have shown that a bunch of them would have been totally fine picks earlier in the draft in retrospect. That is, if you can confidently project how such a prospect is going to develop (which may or may not be possible), you shouldn't rule out taking that player with whatever pick you feel is adequate.

Lastly, I think we should be really careful to not let how players turn out influence how we talk about them as prospects. What I mean is that we may have a tendency to look at athletic players who developed their skills in the NBA and retrospectively ascribe to them more skills – or less rawness – than we otherwise would. For instance, if AD or Embiid never worked out, we may look back at them and claim ‘well, they were just raw athletic bigs that were drafted too high’ whereas now, we'd be inclined to say ‘these guys were never raw to begin with, so they don't count’. And to be clear, those are just two examples off the top of my head to illustrate a point – I'm not at all claiming that these dudes are comparable to, say, Duren or some of the lower-ranked big men that obviously never projected to be as talented as these two guys.

Oh, and on a final note: I'm not at all pushing for Duren or any other particular athletic big in this draft to be picked this very high. I am actually relatively careful myself (I had a lot of doubts about Bamba, for instance) and have become more careful over time. I just don't fully subscribe to the ‘absoluteness’ I see in some of the statements.

This is exactly the point Im making. The vast majority of these guys dont pan out. Hell a good chunk of them dont ever even see real minutes in the NBA. Now I do think some are clearly better prospects than others (go back to the draft with Robert Williams and I was as high as you could be on him, I thought he was going to be a top 10 player from that draft). I feel like the ones that you think will end up being good, you take with that late 1st pick. But you dont know if youre going to get the next Robert Williams or the next Damian Jones (another guy I was high on, but that didnt work out).

I know youre not saying AD and Embiid are comparable to Duren, but those guys were never viewed as just defensive guys. Now yes both were definitely viewed as defensive first players, because they were elite defensive players. But both had clear potential on the offensive end. Embiid was being compared to Hakeem all year long because of his low post skills and he had that good mid range jumper even in college. We were beat over the head during that college season with the story of how AD was a high school PG up until his growth spurt. Everyone talked about his obvious offensive versatility. He showed the mid range jumper, he showed an ability to attack off the dribble.

Those guys were viewed like Mobley. The defense was the first thing you talk about with him, but no one viewed him as an unskilled offensive player. The offensive skill were clearly there.

Looking back at the past drafts, Im not really seeing anyone that falls under the category or raw offensive guy that became a good offensive player that went in the top 10. Here are the centers that have made an all star team that were drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 or so drafts (not counting the 2020 and 2021 draft).

KAT
Porzingis
Embiid
AD
Drummond
Cousins
Brook Lopez

Drummond is the only one that fits that raw athletic non skilled center coming out of college. And I haven't been throwing Drummond in as an example of a win for this kind of player, because Drummond is only 28 years old and has already been bought out and is on a minimum contract. No one is hoping to land the next Drummond in the top 10 of the draft. Duren's offensive game is closer to Drummond's than any of the other guys on that list (talking strictly how they were viewed coming out of college).

[clyde21]

we even had these convos about Wiseman, and the Warriors are learning the hard way right now about why you don't draft this archetype high, could've had half a dozen players who would've been much more scalable in today's NBA than Wiseman.

there is a time and place for these players, but it's not in the top10 or lotto. some of yall need to get with the program already.

May I ask what has changed for you specifically since 2018? Because I recall you having both Bamba and Ayton as your top guys at some point, and neither is the archetype Duke is talking about. It's also way too early to draw any conclusions about Wiseman's long-term fit and value because he simply hasn't played enough yet – but if we're talking about archetype, I see him pretty much in the Ayton mold (with some different strengths and weaknesses, of course).

i learned

[Hal14]

Diabiate is way different than Duren/Collins, i'm talking about Collins/Duren and other single level centers that people every year think they should be lotto picks

not sure how/when Diabate made his way into this discussion

He made it into the conversation because when you break down the high school footage, Diabate and Collins have fairly similar games and fairly similar in terms of ability. Both were 5 star recruits. If you watch the HS film, neither was a single level scorer. Both were 3 level scorers who could run well, jump well, finish high above the rim, block shots, lead the break and put the ball on the floor. Most are things you didn't see Duren do in HS.

Most people don't have Diabate or Collins as a lotto pick - I am higher on both of them than most people so I think they both have a shot..

no they don't? what HS footage? Diabate was playing in Europe before this.

Diabate played HS ball last year for IMG Academy, which competed in GEICO Nationals in Fort Myers, Florida. Same tournament as Duren, Houstan, Kendall Brown, Kennedy Chandler and Tyty Washington played in.

Here's some of Diabate's HS footage:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Hal14]

we even had these convos about Wiseman, and the Warriors are learning the hard way right now about why you don't draft this archetype high, could've had half a dozen players who would've been much more scalable in today's NBA than Wiseman.

there is a time and place for these players, but it's not in the top10 or lotto. some of yall need to get with the program already.

May I ask what has changed for you specifically since 2018? Because I recall you having both Bamba and Ayton as your top guys at some point, and neither is the archetype Duke is talking about. It's also way too early to draw any conclusions about Wiseman's long-term fit and value because he simply hasn't played enough yet – but if we're talking about archetype, I see him pretty much in the Ayton mold (with some different strengths and weaknesses, of course).

i learned

So you wouldn't take Ayton top 10 in a 2018 redraft?

[clyde21]

He made it into the conversation because when you break down the high school footage, Diabate and Collins have fairly similar games and fairly similar in terms of ability. Both were 5 star recruits. If you watch the HS film, neither was a single level scorer. Both were 3 level scorers who could run well, jump well, finish high above the rim, block shots, lead the break and put the ball on the floor. Most are things you didn't see Duren do in HS.

Most people don't have Diabate or Collins as a lotto pick - I am higher on both of them than most people so I think they both have a shot..

no they don't? what HS footage? Diabate was playing in Europe before this.

Diabate played HS ball last year for IMG Academy, which competed in GEICO Nationals in Fort Myers, Florida. Same tournament as Duren, Houstan, Kendall Brown, Kennedy Chandler and Tyty Washington played in.

Here's some of Diabate's HS footage:

thats right he did do a pitstop in HS, but majority of his tape was in europe, still don't see the Collins comp at all, and no one's talking about Diabate as a lotto guy either at this point, but in terms of versatility on offense he brings a lot more to the table than Collins or even Duren at this point.