2022 NBA Draft

[clyde21]

May I ask what has changed for you specifically since 2018? Because I recall you having both Bamba and Ayton as your top guys at some point, and neither is the archetype Duke is talking about. It's also way too early to draw any conclusions about Wiseman's long-term fit and value because he simply hasn't played enough yet – but if we're talking about archetype, I see him pretty much in the Ayton mold (with some different strengths and weaknesses, of course).

i learned

So you wouldn't take Ayton top 10 in a 2018 redraft?

what does a redraft have to do with this? that's not how you approach the draft. no GM is thinking "who am I going to take top10 in a redraft in 5 years" and take that guy.

like seriously, we legit have this damn convo every single year at this point.

[Duke4life831]

i learned

So you wouldn't take Ayton top 10 in a 2018 redraft?

what does a redraft have to do with this? that's not how you approach the draft. no GM is thinking "who am I going to take top10 in a redraft in 5 years" and take that guy.

like seriously, we legit have this damn convo every single year at this point.

Also Ayton isn't really in that group of non skilled bigs. Ayton had a good low post game, he had a money mid range game, took one 3 a game and shot 34%. Ayton showed a good overall offensive skillset in high school and college. He didnt just get his points from being big and athletic. There is a clear gap in offensive skillset between even a guy like Ayton and Duren.

I dont want to put words in Clyde's mouth, but I believe him and I are talking the same kind of player here. We are talking the bigs that get their points from just being big. You watch Duren, he gets his points because he is just bigger and more athletic than his opposition. You watch Mark Williams, he gets his points off being huge with a crazy wingspan. James Wiseman got his points from high volume and just being bigger. Very little offensive skillset is shown, and Im not talking about the random hook shot or random mid range jumper.

Those are the players we're talking about (or at least Im talking about).

And ya we arent saying these kinds of players wont end up being a top 10 player from their draft class. The argument we are making is there has been a clear draft value set on these kinds of players. The past 15+ drafts have shown this. Again its like RBs in the NFL draft. Good RBs draft value has been set at late 1st-3rd round. You take a good RB prospect (but not elite) top 10 in the draft, people will laugh, because the draft value for that kind of player is well known.

[clyde21]

yea, Duren/Collins are not even close to being on Ayton's level as prospect so that was just a bad comp from the get go, Ayton had a legit post game and a middy that Duren still hasn't shown, also Ayton's 73% from the line compared to Duren's 63%, in terms of offense Ayton was levels ahead in terms of sophistication.

[Duke4life831]

yea, Duren/Collins are not even close to being on Ayton's level as prospect so that was just a bad comp from the get go, Ayton had a legit post game and a middy that Duren still hasn't shown, also Ayton's 73% from the line compared to Duren's 63%, in terms of offense Ayton was levels ahead in terms of sophistication.

Ya lets remember, one of the knocks on Ayton coming out of college was, his high mid range tendency. Lots of "we dont want a big that is in love with mid range jumpers". His face up mid range jumper was one of his most used offensive weapons in college. He also went on to lead the Pac 12 in scoring that year. And again that wasn't all just from being bigger and more athletic. Dont get me wrong, that was a good chunk of his offense, but that face up mid range jumper and actual low post moves were big parts of it as well. He had a clear offensive skillset coming out of Arizona.

[Ruzious]

Banchero
Jabari Smith
Chet

That's how I'm ranking them at the moment and I'm sure that will change throughout the season

Right now, I have Jabari in a tier above Chet and Banchero - with Banchero having the edge over Chet.

[clyde21]

yea, Duren/Collins are not even close to being on Ayton's level as prospect so that was just a bad comp from the get go, Ayton had a legit post game and a middy that Duren still hasn't shown, also Ayton's 73% from the line compared to Duren's 63%, in terms of offense Ayton was levels ahead in terms of sophistication.

Ya lets remember, one of the knocks on Ayton coming out of college was, his high mid range tendency. Lots of "we dont want a big that is in love with mid range jumpers". His face up mid range jumper was one of his most used offensive weapons in college. He also went on to lead the Pac 12 in scoring that year. And again that wasn't all just from being bigger and more athletic. Dont get me wrong, that was a good chunk of his offense, but that face up mid range jumper and actual low post moves were big parts of it as well. He had a clear offensive skillset coming out of Arizona.

yea, the key is that you could see a path at the time for Ayton to turn into a multi-level center who can create offense on his own, right now I don't see the same for Duren/Collins, just primarily roll/lob guys at this point who need to be spoon fed the ball to contribute on offense, you just don't take these types lotto. ever. i don't care how high one can jump or what their w/s is.

and it doesn't matter if in 5 yrs Duren would go top 10 in a redraft. that doesn't change today's philosophy.

[The-Power]

Also Ayton isn't really in that group of non skilled bigs. Ayton had a good low post game, he had a money mid range game, took one 3 a game and shot 34%. Ayton showed a good overall offensive skillset in high school and college. He didnt just get his points from being big and athletic. There is a clear gap in offensive skillset between even a guy like Ayton and Duren.

I dont want to put words in Clyde's mouth, but I believe him and I are talking the same kind of player here. We are talking the bigs that get their points from just being big. You watch Duren, he gets his points because he is just bigger and more athletic than his opposition. You watch Mark Williams, he gets his points off being huge with a crazy wingspan. James Wiseman got his points from high volume and just being bigger. Very little offensive skillset is shown, and Im not talking about the random hook shot or random mid range jumper.

Appreciate your response, Duke. The ‘crapshoot’ argument makes more sense to me, so I won't push back hard on that. I just wish to emphasize two small points before I'll check out of this debate.

1) I never compared Ayton to guys in this current draft, I simply used him to argue the broader point.

2) On Wiseman, I will say that this could be a case of someone where we look back at him as a prospect and argue: ‘well, he was never just this raw athletic dude unlike prospect xy’. This speaks to my point of the dangers of retrospectively assessing prospects based on what they've developed into. Because as you mentioned Ayton's midrange game, remember that part of Wiseman's hype out of HS was that he had some handles and shot jumpers which was supposed to set him apart from skill-less athletic bigs (whether or not he'll actually be able to effectively use these skills in the NBA context is a different matter but he has shown some of it. Funnily enough, lack of skill was not even the primary concern with him after his Rookie year – instead, it was mostly about feel for the game.

[Marcus]

I need one of yall watching this class closer than i am to tell me who can usurp Chet at 3. Like legit has the potential to Ja Morant Chet right out the picture in the top 3.

Banch looks like he's going to hold court and Bari is still picking up steam and has the high ceiling potential label slapped on him.

Also would Chet dominating in conference play do anything to re-shape these developing opinions of him for any of you?

[Hal14]

I need one of yall watching this class closer than i am to tell me who can usurp Chet at 3. Like legit has the potential to Ja Morant Chet right out the picture in the top 3.

Banch looks like he's going to hold court and Bari is still picking up steam and has the high ceiling potential label slapped on him.

Also would Chet dominating in conference play do anything to re-shape these developing opinions of him for any of you?

Only other dudes I have seen some people putting in their top 3:

Jovic
Kendall Brown
Jaden Hardy
Ivey
Griffin
And maybe even Duren/Baldwin

You look on twitter and the big boards are pretty all over the place.

[Duke4life831]

Also Ayton isn't really in that group of non skilled bigs. Ayton had a good low post game, he had a money mid range game, took one 3 a game and shot 34%. Ayton showed a good overall offensive skillset in high school and college. He didnt just get his points from being big and athletic. There is a clear gap in offensive skillset between even a guy like Ayton and Duren.

I dont want to put words in Clyde's mouth, but I believe him and I are talking the same kind of player here. We are talking the bigs that get their points from just being big. You watch Duren, he gets his points because he is just bigger and more athletic than his opposition. You watch Mark Williams, he gets his points off being huge with a crazy wingspan. James Wiseman got his points from high volume and just being bigger. Very little offensive skillset is shown, and Im not talking about the random hook shot or random mid range jumper.

Appreciate your response, Duke. The ‘crapshoot’ argument makes more sense to me, so I won't push back hard on that. I just wish to emphasize two small points before I'll check out of this debate.

1) I never compared Ayton to guys in this current draft, I simply used him to argue the broader point.

2) On Wiseman, I will say that this could be a case of someone where we look back at him as a prospect and argue: ‘well, he was never just this raw athletic dude unlike prospect xy’. This speaks to my point of the dangers of retrospectively assessing prospects based on what they've developed into. Because as you mentioned Ayton's midrange game, remember that part of Wiseman's hype out of HS was that he had some handles and shot jumpers which was supposed to set him apart from skill-less athletic bigs (whether or not he'll actually be able to effectively use these skills in the NBA context is a different matter but he has shown some of it. Funnily enough, lack of skill was not even the primary concern with him after his Rookie year – instead, it was mostly about feel for the game.

I totally get that. And ya this is going to fall no doubt on an individual view of a skillset level for each individual. Like myself, I always had Wiseman as essentially a non skilled big. The jumper was never a consistent part of his game. He was always a bad FT shooter and Im pulling this out of memory, but I believe he averaged only like 1 3pt attempt every 2 games in high school and shot horribly. I dont think he ever attempted a 3pt shot in FIBA play either. Again might be off a little on those stats, but I know Im close.

To me Im always hesitant when it comes to a big man perimeter skillset translating from high school to college, then to the NBA. The handle usually never translates well and the jumper tends to be a AAU/highlight reel thing most of the time. The vast vast majority of his consistent offense came from just being so much bigger than everyone else and high volume. That continued over to his 3 games of college as well.

That is why I personally was never a fan of GS using that high of a pick for him. I was even lower on him than most, because he was also a bad defensive player. His defense was all blocked shots against tiny opponents and potential. Ive always thought his awareness on the defensive end was really really bad.

[DCasey91]

Mock Draft 2022 (15 picks) Update 3.0

(0-10)
Holmgren
Smith Jr
Banchero
Murray
Brown

(10-20)
Washington
Griffin Jr
Duren
Ivey

(20-30)
Mathurin
Dieng
Keels

(30-40)
Juzang
Agbaji

(40+)
Prkacin

Bolded are the new entrants.

Baldwin Jr, Houstan, Collins comes out. Still early days and if Dieng has good outings in weeks to come will rise up.

[stormi]

Mock Draft 2022 (15 picks) Update 3.0

(0-10)
Holmgren
Smith Jr
Banchero
Murray
Brown

(10-20)
Washington
Griffin Jr
Duren
Ivey

(20-30)
Mathurin
Dieng
Keels

(30-40)
Juzang
Agbaji

(40+)
Prkacin

Bolded are the new entrants.

Baldwin Jr, Houstan, Collins comes out. Still early days and if Dieng has good outings in weeks to come will rise up.

By comes out, you mean out of your top 40? Or is that a point scaling system you're using above.

[MotownMadness]

I really want Griffin to work out on the court. I just like his build along with skillset, so hopefully he stays healthy and starts going good like he did the other night.

[MotownMadness]

Haven't watched him yet but is Baldwin Jr kinda built like a MPJ forward? Looks about the same size and puts up his stats in the same type of categories more for himself.

[stormi]

Haven't watched him yet but is Baldwin Jr kinda built like a MPJ forward? Looks about the same size and puts up his stats in the same type of categories more for himself.

Baldwin can dribble a lot better. He looks like a tall shot creating forward with playmaking upside. MPJ is a lot more direct / stiff, imo.

[DCasey91]

Mock Draft 2022 (15 picks) Update 3.0

(0-10)
Holmgren
Smith Jr
Banchero
Murray
Brown

(10-20)
Washington
Griffin Jr
Duren
Ivey

(20-30)
Mathurin
Dieng
Keels

(30-40)
Juzang
Agbaji

(40+)
Prkacin

Bolded are the new entrants.

Baldwin Jr, Houstan, Collins comes out. Still early days and if Dieng has good outings in weeks to come will rise up.

By comes out, you mean out of your top 40? Or is that a point scaling system you're using above.

Yeah I only get 15 prospects to choose from, so 5 from draft positions 1-10, 4 from 10-20th pick and so on down. Not a point scaling system

The last two updates will come just before the draft day and will use the latest media mock to make it more reasonable and the final one straight after the draft as the made picks are now real. Aim is to hit on 10/15.

[babyjax13]

Banchero
Jabari Smith
Chet

That's how I'm ranking them at the moment and I'm sure that will change throughout the season

Right now, I have Jabari in a tier above Chet and Banchero - with Banchero having the edge over Chet.

I'm tempted to put Jaden Ivey over Chet, as well. I think he is being underrated as a prospect and is a lot closer to the consensus top 3 than he is to the rest of the draft.

[MotownMadness]

Watching Ivey now and yeah he's really good (Embarrassing missed dunk though lol)

[clyde21]

Haven't watched him yet but is Baldwin Jr kinda built like a MPJ forward? Looks about the same size and puts up his stats in the same type of categories more for himself.

similar archetype, not as athletic

[NYPiston]

I'm just going to say his name once again as I've been saying for weeks in this thread. Jaden Ivey.
He's starting to give me some serious Ja Morant vibes. That ultra dynamic athleticism, the ability to stop and start at will and get to wherever he wants on the court whenever he wants, the playmaking that he's flashing this season, showing some defensive chops, he even kind of looks like him a little bit.

He doesn't handle the ball as much as Ja but I dare somebody to find a more dynamic/exciting prospect in this draft. I'm starting to get a top 3 in the draft feel with him especially now that he's starting to hit the 3 with more regularity. His upside is ridiculously high IMO.