2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 3)

[Kurtz]

I'd easily take both Mobley and Barnes over Wagner right now but this isn't me dumping on the guy.

Wagner (as of now) is a 6"10 rookie who can shoot the 3 efficiently which is going to be very valuable to any team going forwards.

Atm i'd rank the top 5.

1. Mobley
2. Barnes
3. Wagner
4. Giddey (great passer but can't score efficiently at all)
5. Duarte (basically Wagner without the height so it's more difficult to get his shot off, also he's 4 years older)

Green and Cade have tons of upside but are struggling too much atm, Suggs is solid defensively but really needs to work on his shooting for his game to blossom, Sengun just needs 30 minutes a game to see what he can really do.

I'd have Wagner at #5, behind Giddey and probably Cade (assuming Cade fixes his shot shortly, because this is night and day from how he shot in college).

Giddey's scoring percentages are what we all thought Barnes was going to be pre season tbh.

Giddey 39.1 FG%/ 25.7 3FG%/ 65.4 FT% 10.4 pts on 11 shots

Giddey is making a name on his passing and is good rebounder for his position, but his scoring efficiency across the board is just bad right now.

I have no idea when Cade will start having good shooting games from the 3 point line consistently, it's possible it might not be this year.

I'm ok with a PG having a low shooting % in his rookie year tbh, I'm more inclined to focus on his playmaking and even how he competes on the glass. Giddey's playmaking is above anyone in this class so far (including Cade)- reminds me of Lamelo. I've read his expected assist rate is over 11 this year - his teammates just can't stick shots.

[Son Goku 25]

You already know Scottie is ROY with Mobley being 2nd. Funny because they both were the most raw and highest ceiling coming in.

[yoyoboy]

You already know Scottie is ROY with Mobley being 2nd. Funny because they both were the most raw and highest ceiling coming in.

Come on now. As of right now, Barnes has no good argument over Mobley unless you’re only paying attention to the offensive side of the floor.

[Got Nuffin]

1. Mobley
2. Barnes
3. Giddey
4. Green
5. Cade
6. Duarte / Wagner

That's the list so far. I ranked Giddey higher because of his potential being even younger than the others. 1-5 end up All Stars at some stage imo. Great rookie class.

[zaymon]

Like you can settle it after 20 games. Suggs offense was bad but getting better and his defense is better than Barnes. One thing no one mentions is Barnes is left wide open most of the time, teams just dont guard him while Suggs is guarded by Smarts, Caruso's, Holiday's.
While Barnes looked better than Suggs so far for sure i would still took Wagner above both of them.

According to NBA.com
Field goal attempts while being guarded tight or very tight: Suggs 1.6, Barnes 1.4, Wagner 0.7
Attempts while being open or wide open: Suggs 5.6, Wagner 4.2, Barnes 3.3
Percentage of baskets assisted: Wagner 61.9% Suggs 43.7%, Barnes 39.3%

Stats dont support that at all

Oh man... why did you have to bring up the FACTS ???

Lol, the audacity to say "Barnes is left wide open most of the time". Say you're a casual, without saying you're a casual.

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

[Kurtz]

According to NBA.com
Field goal attempts while being guarded tight or very tight: Suggs 1.6, Barnes 1.4, Wagner 0.7
Attempts while being open or wide open: Suggs 5.6, Wagner 4.2, Barnes 3.3
Percentage of baskets assisted: Wagner 61.9% Suggs 43.7%, Barnes 39.3%

Stats dont support that at all

Oh man... why did you have to bring up the FACTS ???

Lol, the audacity to say "Barnes is left wide open most of the time". Say you're a casual, without saying you're a casual.

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

In other words, Barnes is a versatile scorer who puts up more points and does so more efficiently and within the flow of the game than Wagner, whereas Wagner is a perimeter scorer with a much more limited offensive arsenal...yet you've concluded that the latter is more valuable?

Also ur actually using a plus minus argument? U realize that that is largely driven by the discrepancy between bench and starter strength, yes?

[Vampirate]

You already know Scottie is ROY with Mobley being 2nd. Funny because they both were the most raw and highest ceiling coming in.

Come on now. As of right now, Barnes has no good argument over Mobley unless you’re only paying attention to the offensive side of the floor.

Hypothetically Barnes could make it interesting with his offense though, either Mobley or Barnes could get hot or struggle as the season goes on.

If Barnes starts to average a 55% field goal percentage again while keeping his shooting numbers while raising his assists and A/TO ratio while outrebounding Mobley, and Mobley struggles (both players have had great scoring games and duds) this could be a much closer comparison.

Of course the same could go the other way as well as Mobley could make it no contest while Barnes struggles.

Hard to tell with rookies.

Barnes probably needs to score 5+ more points than Mobley while maintaining his percentages and improving his playmaking to re enter the ROTY debate. It's possible for him, though Mobley has the edge.

There isn't another player who can challenge Mobley for ROTY though because even if Mobley struggles on offense, his defense is always there. You'd need to be a markedly better player on offense than Mobley is to have a chance.

Barnes has a slim chance to pull it off, but a chance nonetheless.

[SOUL]

They're both really impressive rookies that are 20~ games in their careers.

Seems like a silly argument to have. Both teams should be excited.

[Got Nuffin]

Watch on YouTube

For those who haven't really seen Toronto play (don't blame you, we mostly stink) here's what's impressive about the rook. You can tell how raw he actually is just watching him, yet he's incredibly productive with a combination of length, athleticism, ball handling and passing in a massive frame. When his offensive skill level catches up to his body, he really might be special in the league.

Josh Giddey for me is the most fun rookie to watch, while Mobley is the best overall player and could be one of the best in the league eventually. Barnes is the most intriguing in terms of what his ceiling could be.

[yoyoboy]

You already know Scottie is ROY with Mobley being 2nd. Funny because they both were the most raw and highest ceiling coming in.

Come on now. As of right now, Barnes has no good argument over Mobley unless you’re only paying attention to the offensive side of the floor.

Hypothetically Barnes could make it interesting with his offense though, either Mobley or Barnes could get hot or struggle as the season goes on.

If Barnes starts to average a 55% field goal percentage again while keeping his shooting numbers while raising his assists and A/TO ratio while outrebounding Mobley, and Mobley struggles (both players have had great scoring games and duds) this could be a much closer comparison.

Of course the same could go the other way as well as Mobley could make it no contest while Barnes struggles.

Hard to tell with rookies.

Barnes probably needs to score 5+ more points than Mobley while maintaining his percentages and improving his playmaking to re enter the ROTY debate. It's possible for him, though Mobley has the edge.

There isn't another player who can challenge Mobley for ROTY though because even if Mobley struggles on offense, his defense is always there. You'd need to be a markedly better player on offense than Mobley is to have a chance.

Barnes has a slim chance to pull it off, but a chance nonetheless.

I actually think Barnes is far more likely to win ROY just because we know voters only really tend to care about PTS/AST/REB when it comes to this award while largely ignoring defense and Barnes is more likely to have the sexier slash line by the end of the year. But I just think if we’re talking which rookie has been the most impactful player thus far, there’s no way it’s not Mobley. He’s legitimately been a top 5 defender in the entire league this year. Barnes would be second for me obviously and if we’re just talking offensively, he’d be first.

[RaptorPride]

You already know Scottie is ROY with Mobley being 2nd. Funny because they both were the most raw and highest ceiling coming in.

Come on now. As of right now, Barnes has no good argument over Mobley unless you’re only paying attention to the offensive side of the floor.

Offensive numbers are usually what wins awards. We have been on the other side for many years with Lowry.

[zaymon]

Oh man... why did you have to bring up the FACTS ???

Lol, the audacity to say "Barnes is left wide open most of the time". Say you're a casual, without saying you're a casual.

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

In other words, Barnes is a versatile scorer who puts up more points and does so more efficiently and within the flow of the game than Wagner, whereas Wagner is a perimeter scorer with a much more limited offensive arsenal...yet you've concluded that the latter is more valuable?

Also ur actually using a plus minus argument? U realize that that is largely driven by the discrepancy between bench and starter strength, yes?

Thats your interpretation but stats say the opposite. Barnes is not more versatile scorer, he just takes wider range of bad shots and has more opportunity to score on easy shots ( thanks to his tools which is a plus, but also by better team around him and easier role).
Wagner is actually more efficient scorer in transition and off cuts but has less opportunities to do so.
Only field Barnes is clearly better is put backs. Do you think Andre Drummond is a versatile scorer ?
Net rating is not a good individual stat i admit but i found the numbers interesting nonetheless.

[basketballRob]

Oh man... why did you have to bring up the FACTS ???

Lol, the audacity to say "Barnes is left wide open most of the time". Say you're a casual, without saying you're a casual.

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

In other words, Barnes is a versatile scorer who puts up more points and does so more efficiently and within the flow of the game than Wagner, whereas Wagner is a perimeter scorer with a much more limited offensive arsenal...yet you've concluded that the latter is more valuable?

Also ur actually using a plus minus argument? U realize that that is largely driven by the discrepancy between bench and starter strength, yes?

Most of his shots are at the rim that he creates.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Fat]

Right now I got

1-Mobley
2-Barnes
3-Wagner

[Kurtz]

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

In other words, Barnes is a versatile scorer who puts up more points and does so more efficiently and within the flow of the game than Wagner, whereas Wagner is a perimeter scorer with a much more limited offensive arsenal...yet you've concluded that the latter is more valuable?

Also ur actually using a plus minus argument? U realize that that is largely driven by the discrepancy between bench and starter strength, yes?

Thats your interpretation but stats say the opposite. Barnes is not more versatile scorer, he just takes wider range of bad shots and has more opportunity to score on easy shots ( thanks to his tools which is a plus, but also by better team around him and easier role).
Wagner is actually more efficient scorer in transition and off cuts but has less opportunities to do so.
Only field Barnes is clearly better is put backs. Do you think Andre Drummond is a versatile scorer ?
Net rating is not a good individual stat i admit but i found the numbers interesting nonetheless.

Wagner is worse than Scottie in getting transition opportunities due primarily to their physical builds - that won't change in the future...in fact that discrepancy should only increase.

No, Scottie is not "only better on putbacks", although the discrepancy there is significant. Scottie is shooting 46% from 3-10 feet, whereas Franz is shooting 40% from same distance, with both guys shooting about a third of their shots from that distance.

Franz also is the beneficiary of the corner 3 being created for him - 24% of his shots are corner 3s, compared to only 14% from Scottie. That's the only area where Franz is superior offensively at the moment.

[bisme37]

They're both really impressive rookies that are 20~ games in their careers.

Seems like a silly argument to have. Both teams should be excited.

Ha yeah I don't know why it has to be a death match where only one can survive. They're both awesome.

[Vampirate]

Most of his shots are at the rim that he creates.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Who are you referring to here Barnes or Wagner?

Also I can't believe i'm going to say this but 20 games in Scottie Barnes has more range on his scoring than Evan Mobley does thus far.

Mobley is just basically an auto dunk if he gets the ball near the basket at over 70%, honestly the guy is lob city lol.

A breakdown of all 3 of Wagner, Mobley and Barnes thus far.

[JonFromVA]

Come on now. As of right now, Barnes has no good argument over Mobley unless you’re only paying attention to the offensive side of the floor.

Hypothetically Barnes could make it interesting with his offense though, either Mobley or Barnes could get hot or struggle as the season goes on.

If Barnes starts to average a 55% field goal percentage again while keeping his shooting numbers while raising his assists and A/TO ratio while outrebounding Mobley, and Mobley struggles (both players have had great scoring games and duds) this could be a much closer comparison.

Of course the same could go the other way as well as Mobley could make it no contest while Barnes struggles.

Hard to tell with rookies.

Barnes probably needs to score 5+ more points than Mobley while maintaining his percentages and improving his playmaking to re enter the ROTY debate. It's possible for him, though Mobley has the edge.

There isn't another player who can challenge Mobley for ROTY though because even if Mobley struggles on offense, his defense is always there. You'd need to be a markedly better player on offense than Mobley is to have a chance.

Barnes has a slim chance to pull it off, but a chance nonetheless.

I actually think Barnes is far more likely to win ROY just because we know voters only really tend to care about PTS/AST/REB when it comes to this award while largely ignoring defense and Barnes is more likely to have the sexier slash line by the end of the year. But I just think if we’re talking which rookie has been the most impactful player thus far, there’s no way it’s not Mobley. He’s legitimately been a top 5 defender in the entire league this year. Barnes would be second for me obviously and if we’re just talking offensively, he’d be first.

I do find it interesting that Mobley leads Barnes in BPM by quite a bit and the only defensive stats going in to that are coming from the box score where Mobley's only major advantage is in blocks.

For voters looking for big offensive stats, nobody is really providing them so far. The race is wide open for any rook who cares to finish the rest of the season strong.

Mobley is so advanced on the defensive side that if Scottie, Cade, Jalen, etc, aren't able to sustain their own defensive case against him or dominate in scoring/assists it could actually make the difference for once.

[nikster]

According to NBA.com
Field goal attempts while being guarded tight or very tight: Suggs 1.6, Barnes 1.4, Wagner 0.7
Attempts while being open or wide open: Suggs 5.6, Wagner 4.2, Barnes 3.3
Percentage of baskets assisted: Wagner 61.9% Suggs 43.7%, Barnes 39.3%

Stats dont support that at all

Oh man... why did you have to bring up the FACTS ???

Lol, the audacity to say "Barnes is left wide open most of the time". Say you're a casual, without saying you're a casual.

Well thats why stats are useless without context. I can see you are both casuals so i will try to explain it in simple way.

So you may ask why Barnes is taking so many tightly guarded shots ? Are defenses really respecting him ? The answer is simple, Barnes doesnt take open shots becouse he doesnt want to take them and cant make them. He is left open on the perimeter but takes only 1.5 three point attempts per game.
Wagner for comparison is taking 4 three pointers per game.

Ok so now we know teams are leaving Barnes open on the perimeter and he doesnt punish them but why he takes so many contested shots ? Are they really trying to stop him? Well not exactly, in reality its a combination of his physical tools and bad shot selection. His main source of points come from transition(24,2%), put backs(11,1%), spot ups(15,4%) and isolation(11,8%). In transition there is a defender near you most of the time, same during put backs and cuts. Its not indication how defenses treat you individually, becouse defenses are not set to stop you (although Barnes is suprisingly below average in transition and cuts). Spot ups and isolation are given to him by design. They are in midrange so there will be someone near, but Barnes is in 8,4 percentile as spot up finisher and 15,9 percentile as isolation scorer.

Stats paint a player who is hurting his team by passing or missing open shots while scoring mostly by his physical tools around the rim in transition and by offensive rebounds when defenses are not set or takes tough contested shots (26% of his shots are long two's). I am not saying thats bad for a rookie, his tools and energy are impressing but it doesnt change the way teams guard him.

For comparison Wagner doesnt take low iq tough contested shots (no post ups, no isolations, 7,5% long two's), doesnt generate as many easy points where defenders are near (put backs, cuts, transition), while takes a lot more open 3's opponents give him. I will also admit its much tougher for Wagner to generate points by put backs, transition and cuts, becouse a)he actually spaces the floor and is further from basket b) is much more involved as a pick and roll ball handler c)there is less transition opportunities becouse Toronto has better team defense (while wagner is better overall defender than Barnes).

Its not a suprise Raptors net rating is - 0,8 while Barnes is -2,2 and Magic net rating is -10,9 while Wagner -6,6. Wagner is just a better player.

3 pointers is the area Wagner is scoring effectively. 98% of his 3s are open, 80% are Wide open, 97% are assissted. How does that paint a picture of someone who gets defensive attention? How does Barnes have a higher TS% then a player who is constantly fed wide open looks of the most effective shot in basketball?

Argument went from Barnes benefits from being open and ignored by D to "Barnes is forcing tough contested shots", no contradiction there...
You cant blame the difference on Transition opportunities: take those away and Barnes still comes out ahead.

You give credit to Wagner for spacing the floor and taking open 3s, yet ignore that spacing comes at the expense of cuts and put backs which you minimize for barnes(and you also ignore that Barnes is simply a better offensive rebounder)

[Vampirate]

Hypothetically Barnes could make it interesting with his offense though, either Mobley or Barnes could get hot or struggle as the season goes on.

If Barnes starts to average a 55% field goal percentage again while keeping his shooting numbers while raising his assists and A/TO ratio while outrebounding Mobley, and Mobley struggles (both players have had great scoring games and duds) this could be a much closer comparison.

Of course the same could go the other way as well as Mobley could make it no contest while Barnes struggles.

Hard to tell with rookies.

Barnes probably needs to score 5+ more points than Mobley while maintaining his percentages and improving his playmaking to re enter the ROTY debate. It's possible for him, though Mobley has the edge.

There isn't another player who can challenge Mobley for ROTY though because even if Mobley struggles on offense, his defense is always there. You'd need to be a markedly better player on offense than Mobley is to have a chance.

Barnes has a slim chance to pull it off, but a chance nonetheless.

I actually think Barnes is far more likely to win ROY just because we know voters only really tend to care about PTS/AST/REB when it comes to this award while largely ignoring defense and Barnes is more likely to have the sexier slash line by the end of the year. But I just think if we’re talking which rookie has been the most impactful player thus far, there’s no way it’s not Mobley. He’s legitimately been a top 5 defender in the entire league this year. Barnes would be second for me obviously and if we’re just talking offensively, he’d be first.

I do find it interesting that Mobley leads Barnes in BPM by quite a bit and the only defensive stats going in to that are coming from the box score where Mobley's only major advantage is in blocks.

For voters looking for big offensive stats, nobody is really providing them so far. The race is wide open for any rook who cares to finish the rest of the season strong.

Mobley is so advanced on the defensive side that if Scottie, Cade, Jalen, etc, aren't able to sustain their own defensive case against him or dominate in scoring/assists it could actually make the difference for once.

I think Scottie could in theory put up good enough offensive stats to make it interesting. Frankly for me, I even find TS% a bit flawed. For scoring for me it's PPS (points per shot) and it's close between the 2 between Barnes and Mobley, one thing though is I believe Barnes is a far more dynamic player offensive player than Mobley at this point. This is not a knock on Mobley but just giving some context here.

If Barnes can score 17-20 points on like 13-15 shots and average 4-6 assists with 8-9 rebounds (I believe he has it in him tbh) then i'd say he earned the ROTY (if he wins ROTY) over just giving it to the guy with the most points. He'd have made the race much more close to the point you could debate it. I'd probably give the edge to Mobley still unless the offense of the 2 is really noticeable.

As of now, it's not close, but it'll be interesting if Barnes offense can close Mobley's defense. It'll be offense vs defense.

Of course Mobley isn't chopped liver and could have more games like the one in NY for all I know.