bbalnation wrote:jamaalstar21 wrote:bbalnation wrote:
Another out-dated, all or nothing claim about Wiggins.
Sure, going from the system in Minny to GSWs culture, and defensive system thats switch heavy and works perfectly with his build. As far as his intensity, that in his early teen years with the while "lack of drive unless it was for big games where hes boo'd". I dont deny this. He has a different motor than others in the league. That motor does not work well in most work environments, and from a basketball POV: it did not for him imo. He wasn't his best self at all, or anywhere close, nor a positive contributor in a lot of ways, and a negative contributor in some ways, in a piss poor environment.
Lets look at his last 3 years in Golden State. I go with a combo of the eye test and some stats. Im not sure what metrics are out there for off ball defense.
We can look at steals and blocks. Every single year with Golden State, he has gone down in those 2 stats (half in both since the first year he got there). That may be an example of a person who does not ball watch as much as he used to.
To say that Kerr puts him on Chris Paul for full court pressure all game to keep him engaged at this point, is strange. Wiggs has a size advantage over Chris, and at this stage of his career, speed isn't too far off, especially with all the help that GSW provide. Providing pressure all game on someone who makes decisions all game leads them to make more bad decisions (thats my basketball pov, esp if the system is in place, and the speed is there).
If you have other stats or view points that can show that he IS, one of the worst off-ball defenders you've ever seen, for a golden state team that is currently a pretty damn good defensive team, I would love to hear them.
What is "all or nothing" about me saying Wiggins is a good on-ball defender and poor off-ball defender? Naming someone's strengths and weaknesses is the opposite of all-or-nothing. All or nothing would be saying he is a great defender, or saying he's a horrible defender. That's what that expression means.
I'm definitely talking eye-test in my post. I've followed him since he was 15-years-old, mostly due to the coincidence of being a Canadian, a Minnesota fan, and a frequent tuner-in to late-night West Coast games. By far the biggest difference I've noticed in Wiggins' defense is how involved he is in the teams defensive scheme. Golden State keeps him in ball pressure situations as much as possible. Minnesota didn't use him so specifically.
But I don't think the burden of statistical proof lies on me. Most defensive catch-all metric that exists paints Wiggins as holding neutral-ish defensive value over his career. RAPTOR paints this as his best season, but only by a little biddy bit. DBPM has him as a strong negative in Minnesota and a mild negative in Golden State. I don't have new RAPM numbers but in Minne he was always a negative. This is all despite Wiggins always looking like a very good on-ball defender. If you don't think his defensive role has been different in Golden State, I don't know what to tell you. If you don't think that Golden State being a very good defensive team, and Minnesota being a brutally awful one, are going to affect Wiggins' numbers, I don't know what to tell you. I don't think the numbers are going to directly answer the question of his on-ball/off-ball effectiveness.
Numbers are tricky with capturing defensive value. I read all the defensive numbers, but I like to watch guys. I don't think I know a players defense until I've watched some tape on their off-ball defensive possessions. I'm not exaggerating to win an argument when I say I've probably watched Wiggins' off-ball defensive possessions as much as any fan could. He's bad! He's bad in Golden State. He's just utilized better. He still absolutely drops his stance when the ball swings to the weakside and floats around. I rarely (if ever) see Wiggins deny the ball, I rarely see Wiggins do his work early. He comes alive when the ball is in front of his face. He doesn't rotate well on the backline and he's only okay at defending the nail (the spot on the floor where long athletic wings usually dominate).
Not sure why you're talking about his steal and block numbers. His minutes are down in Golden State, but his steal and block rates are pretty consistent over his career.You're very much fleshing out what I said about Wiggins to the point of straw-manning me a bit. I never said:
- Anything about his motor in different environments. I don't really care about that narrative.
- That he was only put on Chris Paul to keep him engaged and for no other reason. I think Wiggins is a great matchup for a ball dominant guard. I
I'm saying Wiggins is the type of player that you need to keep engaged to get value out of him. This is true on both sides. Kerr very clearly, from the moment they acquired Wiggins, understood this. Minnesota took 5 years and 4 coaches to figure this out offensively, and never figured it out defensively (outside of putting him on designated scorers in crunch time possessions). Wiggins has a huge focus problem. I remember once watching him get back cut on back-to-back possessions in crunch time by Gordan Hayward. In Golden State he's a designated ball-hawk in their defensive schemes and is needed less as a help defender, especially when he plays with Draymond Green. Wiggins and Greens play most of their minutes together for good reasons. They're the highest minute duo on the Warriors and Wiggins has played 545 of his 667 minutes with Green.
People can grow and improve. Basketball players can get better.
You said he is one of the worst off ball defenders you have ever seen. Then you tell me the burden of statistical proof is on me even though you've made the statement lol. I presented an example with blocks and stats while he was in Golden State (they've gone down each year!) which you discredited, which is fine (I said may in my original point afterall). You brought up advanced defensive stats from Minny which are part of context and focused heavily on them (citing a negative RAPM from Minny but not having it for Gstate, which is fair, but we're talking about Wiggins now). You then go on to discredit these advanced stats that don't paint a picture of "one of the worst off ball defenders".
For the ones you do cite and know from his days in Gstate, hes neutral these past 3 seasons (or close to). This season, hes neutral on winning basketball.
Then you talk about how Wiggins and Draymond (who many say ALSO carries Curry defensively to this day) share minutes and cite the exact # shared. What? Lol.
I think he's neutral defensively offball, maybe a bit below or above average still depending on who he plays. Thats definitely not "one of the worst off ball defenders".
He can be pretty bad sometimes off ball, in that he gets distracted once in a while and its highlight worthy. That doesn't make him one of the worst off ball defenders. Thats why I said all or nothing. I said out-dated for obvious reasons.
Why I deflected the burden of proof is because I wasn't introducing a statistical argument against Wiggins defense. It's hard to isolate off-ball impact unless we both have a lot of data. At the end of the day, all you're saying is that you believe Wiggins is defensively neutral off-ball, but you aren't offering a description or anything about why you think that. I think he's bad. 'one of the worst ever' is obviously hyperbole on my part, I haven't tracked enough players off-ball to rank Wiggins as "one of the worst", but I'll maintain my position that he's bad and not neutral.
I don't know of a good off-ball metric for defense so I'm not super interested in a statistical discussion. Steals and blocks sometimes useful. Deflections are a good indicator of how active a player is off-ball situations (Wiggins averages 1.4 deflections, which is a poor number for a 30mpg player). Wiggins has only drawn 2 offensive fouls this season. But you can see his on-ball energy in the numbers (he contests a lot of shots for a perimeter player). Now you can contest shots on close-outs, which can be off-ball possessions if you're helping on an opponents assignment. You can also deflect on-ball. So I'm not assuming these numbers are proof, but I do think they paint a general picture of a player who doesn't make an impact off the ball and does do a good job on the ball. That matches what my eye-test says.
I don't get the point about Curry. I think Curry is a pretty solid defender both on and off the ball, however, his size is going to limit him in off-ball situations a ton. I don't expect Curry to make much off-ball impact. Wiggins, by virtue of being 6'7"+ with a 7'0" wingspan, is a player I would expect more from.
I guess, if you feel you pay a ton of attention to Wiggins' off-ball defense and think he's good/neutral, we just disagree. If you don't pay a ton of attention to it, I don't think it's fair for you to assume my position is out of date. I certainly have some level of confirmation bias with Wiggins, but I also think he's a player I have watched a ton and continue to watch a ton.
Of course players can change, I'm not saying he hasn't. But I think the bigger factor in Wiggins case is playing in a much different defensive system and having a different, more efficient role, rather than any big changes to his game, focus, motor. I don't see big changes in Wiggins, but acknowledge his impact is higher in GSW. In Minnesota he would often look awesome on-ball sometimes and embarrass himself off-ball. Minnesota also put him in horrible situations a lot of the time.