Bradley Beal - Part III

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm not with the trade Beal, don't max, he sucks crew. I just want him to get out of his funk. It's disheartening seeing him neck and neck with Steph last year for the scoring title and seeing Steph easily doing whatever he wants right now while Brad isn't even our All Star.

Also, Brad hasn't gotten huge the last couple of years but he's definitely bulkier, with wide strong shoulders, etc. Do you think maybe that affected his 3 ball. Bottom line is we can look night and day if he looks like a explosive scorer again and if Rui puts it all together. Not super confident in Spencer this year but I also won't judge him as harshly since he has an legit excuse

This is the year.

I have a really good feeling about this team moving forward.

[JWizmentality]

It's been 21 games. How long does Brad need to figure it out? I've never been sold on Beal. Last year was the year I thought I had to eat crow but turns out he's still the player I thought he was. An inconsistent streaky shooter who wilts under pressure.

[Frichuela]

It's been 21 games. How long does Brad need to figure it out? I've never been sold on Beal. Last year was the year I thought I had to eat crow but turns out he's still the player I thought he was. An inconsistent streaky shooter who wilts under pressure.

It's obvious that he has significantly regressed this season. Very inefficient, particularly his 3 pt shooting and turnovers (both career worst). Unsurprisingly his ORTG and DRTG differential (-8 pts per 100 possessions) is the worst of his career too...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html

Do we want to sign him to a 5 year super max? Because Terd&Tommy are 99.9% likely to do so...

[JWizmentality]

It's been 21 games. How long does Brad need to figure it out? I've never been sold on Beal. Last year was the year I thought I had to eat crow but turns out he's still the player I thought he was. An inconsistent streaky shooter who wilts under pressure.

It's obvious that he has significantly regressed this season. Very inefficient, particularly his 3 pt shooting and turnovers (both career worst). Unsurprisingly his ORTG and DRTG differential (-8 pts per 100 possessions) is the worst of his career too...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01.html

Do we want to sign him to a 5 year super max? Because Terd&Tommy are 99.9% likely to do so...

We certainly are. John Wall part 2.

[nate33]

As I said a page ago, Beal was horrible in his first 3 games and has merely been modestly below his career baseline ever since. Excluding his first 3 games, his ORtg is 105. His ORtg the last 3 years has been roughly 1 point ahead of league average. His ORtg this year is 3 points below league average. (League average ORtg has dropped from 112 to 108.)

I really think he has looked pretty good the last several games. He is getting to the rim and passing well. His turnovers are down too. I just wish that I knew what the hell happened to his 3-ball. He has made just 7 of his last 37 (18.9%).

One last note: Beal is the only starter with a positive on/off differential.

[payitforward]

I'm not for giving him a super max -- but in his defense, he's also at a career high in rebounds & assists this year. His FT% is also at a career high, & his 2pt % is about where it was 2 years ago.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It's been 21 games. How long does Brad need to figure it out? I've never been sold on Beal. Last year was the year I thought I had to eat crow but turns out he's still the player I thought he was. An inconsistent streaky shooter who wilts under pressure.

He has not through the first 1/4 of a season

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As I said a page ago, Beal was horrible in his first 3 games and has merely been modestly below his career baseline ever since. Excluding his first 3 games, his ORtg is 105. His ORtg the last 3 years has been roughly 1 point ahead of league average. His ORtg this year is 3 points below league average. (League average ORtg has dropped from 112 to 108.)

I really think he has looked pretty good the last several games. He is getting to the rim and passing well. His turnovers are down too. I just wish that I knew what the hell happened to his 3-ball. He has made just 7 of his last 37 (18.9%).

One last note: Beal is the only starter with a positive on/off differential.

So what you're saying I think is coach needs to perhaps alter the starting lineup and we need to get up off Bradley Beal

[nate33]

As I said a page ago, Beal was horrible in his first 3 games and has merely been modestly below his career baseline ever since. Excluding his first 3 games, his ORtg is 105. His ORtg the last 3 years has been roughly 1 point ahead of league average. His ORtg this year is 3 points below league average. (League average ORtg has dropped from 112 to 108.)

I really think he has looked pretty good the last several games. He is getting to the rim and passing well. His turnovers are down too. I just wish that I knew what the hell happened to his 3-ball. He has made just 7 of his last 37 (18.9%).

One last note: Beal is the only starter with a positive on/off differential.

So what you're saying I think is coach needs to perhaps alter the starting lineup and we need to get up off Bradley Beal

Possibly. But mostly, I just think that our second unit is only barely worse than our starters, whereas most teams have a 2nd unit considerably worse than their starters.

To put it in numerical terms, on a scale of 1-10, our starters average a 6 and our bench is a 5. Most teams have a starting unit that's averages around 7 and a bench that averages around 3. With that the case, when our starters play against other starters, they get beat a little bit, but then our bench wallops their bench. The end result is our starters have a negative on/off differential and our bench has a positive one. But nevertheless, our starting unit is still more talented than our bench and it's possible that our coach isn't doing anything wrong with the rotations.

[JWizmentality]

It's been 21 games. How long does Brad need to figure it out? I've never been sold on Beal. Last year was the year I thought I had to eat crow but turns out he's still the player I thought he was. An inconsistent streaky shooter who wilts under pressure.

He has not through the first 1/4 of a season

Oh what a time to be a Wizard fan. I gotta wait 40 games into the season for our franchise player to be average.

Man I miss Gilbert Arenas. I could cry.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As I said a page ago, Beal was horrible in his first 3 games and has merely been modestly below his career baseline ever since. Excluding his first 3 games, his ORtg is 105. His ORtg the last 3 years has been roughly 1 point ahead of league average. His ORtg this year is 3 points below league average. (League average ORtg has dropped from 112 to 108.)

I really think he has looked pretty good the last several games. He is getting to the rim and passing well. His turnovers are down too. I just wish that I knew what the hell happened to his 3-ball. He has made just 7 of his last 37 (18.9%).

One last note: Beal is the only starter with a positive on/off differential.

So what you're saying I think is coach needs to perhaps alter the starting lineup and we need to get up off Bradley Beal

Possibly. But mostly, I just think that our second unit is only barely worse than our starters, whereas most teams have a 2nd unit considerably worse than their starters.

To put it in numerical terms, on a scale of 1-10, our starters average a 6 and our bench is a 5. Most team have a starting unit that's averages around 7 and a bench that averages around 3. With that the case, when our starters play against other starters, they get beat a little bit, but then our bench wallops their bench. The end result is our starters have a negative on/off differential and our bench has a positive one. But nevertheless, our starting unit is still more talented than our bench and it's possible that our coach isn't doing anything wrong with the rotations.

I think our 2nd unit would beat our 1st unit ...That is the 2nd unit without Davis on it

[payitforward]

For crying out loud -- we are 13-8!! How often in the last 30 years, have we been this good this far into the season? Yet, there's a whole lot of bitching & moaning on the board.

Let's enjoy it. & let's see what happens next. The team's in a big transition, & it's going well.

[Ruzious]

Pretty cool to be tied with the Bucks and the Heat and just a half game behind second place in the East. But if you're a betting man, never ever bet on us winning in San Antonio.

[Jay81]

He sucks. Should of traded him in off-season when he had value. If we resign him. Im done!!

[daSwami]

He definitely does not suck, but the good news is he's probably not getting a supermax contract now. This slump is probably just that: a slump. Perhaps he's not a good fit for Unseld's system?

[nate33]

Beal has been pretty bad this year. But he is still the only defense bender on the offense. Don't fool yourself into believing we would be better without him. Also, I do appreciate that he seems to be trying to adjust his game to the new offense and new personnel. His usage is down from the past few years and has dropped a bit more if you ignore the first 6 games (at which point he seemed to make a concerted effort to involve others more an shoot less). He just hasn't figured everything out yet, and he cannot hit the side of a barn from 3-point range.

I don't think he has very much trade value anymore given his play and expiring contract, so trading him is not going to happen.

I think daSwami is right that he is probably not getting the supermax now. The fact is, Beal made his decision this summer when he declined the full extension that was offered. Risk is a 2-way street. Beal (and his agent) turned away sure money on a just-below-supermax extension, betting that he would get more if he waited until this summer. Well, he bet wrong. Shooting guards who shoot 26% from 3-point range don't get supermax offers. It's not Sheppard's responsibility to bail Beal out of a bad bet.

Sheppard should offer him fair market value this offseason and no more. I'd say fair market value is something in the $30M range. I don't think any other playoff-caliber team will have the cap room to pay him even that much. And I'm pretty sure that the under-the-cap rebuilding teams don't want to throw max money at Beal.

If Beal walks, then he walks. It will be a disaster if we do pay him the supermax.

One other possibility would be to offer him a 1-year deal (or a 2-year deal with a team option on year 2) at the supermax. Out of good will, give Beal one more year to try and regain his All-NBA form. (We have the luxtax room to afford such a deal next year, it just becomes a problem in the following years.) But do not offer him a long term contract that will cripple the franchise for years like Wall's deal did.

[prime1time]

He sucks. Should of traded him in off-season when he had value. If we resign him. Im done!!

Might be better to just leave now. I don't see us trading him.

[prime1time]

Beal has been pretty bad this year. But he is still the only defense bender on the offense. Don't fool yourself into believing we would be better without him. Also, I do appreciate that he seems to be trying to adjust his game to the new offense and new personnel. His usage is down from the past few years and has dropped a bit more if you ignore the first 6 games (at which point he seemed to make a concerted effort to involve others more an shoot less). He just hasn't figured everything out yet, and he cannot hit the side of a barn from 3-point range.

I don't think he has very much trade value anymore given his play and expiring contract, so trading him is not going to happen.

I think daSwami is right that he is probably not getting the supermax now. The fact is, Beal made his decision this summer when he declined the full extension that was offered. Risk is a 2-way street. Beal (and his agent) turned away sure money on a just-below-supermax extension, betting that he would get more if he waited until this summer. Well, he bet wrong. Shooting guards who shoot 26% from 3-point range don't get supermax offers. It's not Sheppard's responsibility to bail Beal out of a bad bet.

Sheppard should offer him fair market value this offseason and no more. I'd say fair market value is something in the $30M range. I don't think any other playoff-caliber team will have the cap room to pay him even that much. And I'm pretty sure that the under-the-cap rebuilding teams don't want to throw max money at Beal.

If Beal walks, then he walks. It will be a disaster if we do pay him the supermax.

One other possibility would be to offer him a 1-year deal (or a 2-year deal with a team option on year 2) at the supermax. Out of good will, give Beal one more year to try and regain his All-NBA form. (We have the luxtax room to afford such a deal next year, it just becomes a problem in the following years.) But do not offer him a long term contract that will cripple the franchise for years like Wall's deal did.

He'll be getting super max lol.

[nate33]

Beal has been pretty bad this year. But he is still the only defense bender on the offense. Don't fool yourself into believing we would be better without him. Also, I do appreciate that he seems to be trying to adjust his game to the new offense and new personnel. His usage is down from the past few years and has dropped a bit more if you ignore the first 6 games (at which point he seemed to make a concerted effort to involve others more an shoot less). He just hasn't figured everything out yet, and he cannot hit the side of a barn from 3-point range.

I don't think he has very much trade value anymore given his play and expiring contract, so trading him is not going to happen.

I think daSwami is right that he is probably not getting the supermax now. The fact is, Beal made his decision this summer when he declined the full extension that was offered. Risk is a 2-way street. Beal (and his agent) turned away sure money on a just-below-supermax extension, betting that he would get more if he waited until this summer. Well, he bet wrong. Shooting guards who shoot 26% from 3-point range don't get supermax offers. It's not Sheppard's responsibility to bail Beal out of a bad bet.

Sheppard should offer him fair market value this offseason and no more. I'd say fair market value is something in the $30M range. I don't think any other playoff-caliber team will have the cap room to pay him even that much. And I'm pretty sure that the under-the-cap rebuilding teams don't want to throw max money at Beal.

If Beal walks, then he walks. It will be a disaster if we do pay him the supermax.

One other possibility would be to offer him a 1-year deal (or a 2-year deal with a team option on year 2) at the supermax. Out of good will, give Beal one more year to try and regain his All-NBA form. (We have the luxtax room to afford such a deal next year, it just becomes a problem in the following years.) But do not offer him a long term contract that will cripple the franchise for years like Wall's deal did.

He'll be getting super max lol.

Not if he plays the entire season like this. We won't pay the supermax to a guy averaging just 22 points a game while shooting 26% from 3-point range. I really don't think Sheppard will make that mistake. He is the same guy who traded John Wall.

But my guess is that Beal shakes out of his slump and starts looking like the Beal of old before the season is over, which means he will get the supermax. Frankly, even the Beal of last season on a supermax contract isn't such a great ideal. But it won't be as detrimental as the Beal of this season on a supermax.

[prime1time]

Wizards fans are so hyperbolic. Everything we've done since Wall's injury has been about building and around Beal. Now because of a bad stretch we are just going to tear it down? Super max or not super max it doesn't really matter. We'd be paying him enough to where his performance and our performance are linked. For anyone being rational, the solution is to get Beal going.