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2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation

Moderators: bwgood77, lilfishi22, Qwigglez

Do you truly expect the Suns to win the finals this year?

Yes
18
55%
No
15
45%
 
Total votes: 33

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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1321 » by Saberestar » Wed Dec 8, 2021 9:00 am

AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


1. Covington.
He has been slowing down badly for the last two seasons. Last year he was bad but his production and numbers this current season are ATROCIOUS and he is a big negative on offense and now even on defense. Ask Blazers fans about him...

He is making around $13M so we would need to trade Saric and he would help us more as a locker room guy and playing next season (or even late this season) than Covington.

Watching his stats, this is crazy...he has shot 3 FTs in 25 games! And he is shooting 39% from the floor. Not surprise because last year's shot 40%.


2. Torrey Craig.
He didn't want to be back and he is under contract for next season ($5.1M). We will need that money for Ayton's extension, it would be better to trade for an expiring contract or sign a player in the buyout market.

And he hasn't been good for the Pacers. He is OK, but we couldn't play him against the Bucks in the Finals because he isn't good enough.

Is he better than Nader? Yeah, true, but we can get someone MUCH better than Nader before the playoffs.


3.Boucher.
I would be OK with Boucher, but I don't like him a lot because he lacks awareness and feel for the game.

I would trade for him over Covington and Craig, because he at least is an expiring and we wouldn't need to give up Saric for him.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1322 » by sunsbg » Wed Dec 8, 2021 11:03 am

I compared Jalen with Boucher a few times. Would be great if there is a swap and Boucher regains his form from last season.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1323 » by Mulhollanddrive » Wed Dec 8, 2021 12:00 pm

Thad Young still my preference by some margin.

We will only be playing the 9th man significant minutes in playoffs if he's a difference maker and we have nobody that can defend a big PF like he can. Plus he'd be a viable backup C ahead of Saric, Kamsinky, Smith.

The one area we'd take a bit of a leap of faith is changing his offensive game to standing in the corner for corner 3s.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1324 » by BobbieL » Wed Dec 8, 2021 1:50 pm

Mulhollanddrive wrote:Thad Young still my preference by some margin.

We will only be playing the 9th man significant minutes in playoffs if he's a difference maker and we have nobody that can defend a big PF like he can. Plus he'd be a viable backup C ahead of Saric, Kamsinky, Smith.

The one area we'd take a bit of a leap of faith is changing his offensive game to standing in the corner for corner 3s.


I would be okay with Craig as it would be a natural fit for Smith as the trade partner plus you would still have one roster spot for a buyout candidate

If you wait for the buyout market - thats fine too - even if Young. I wonder if a guy like Gary Harris gets bought out by the Magin - he might be a guy the team could use - scoring off the bench
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1325 » by bwgood77 » Wed Dec 8, 2021 3:56 pm

bwgood77 wrote:For new poll....how many do you think we win out of the 15 games through Christmas?

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7-1 so far but final 7 is tougher. Should still probably go at least 4-3 and probably 5-2. I picked 10 only because I think with a tough schedule going 10-5 is still a 55 win pace, and also even if I thought we might be a little better I like to be happily surprised if we beat it.

Jaylen Brown has been out though. Klay should be back for Christmas. Have no idea how tough Charlotte and Wash will be but one of the could be as well as the Clips and/or Lakers. 3-1 would be good against them. Christmas day will likely be the toughest. I figure we lose 2-4 more...most likely 3, then 2, then 1 or 4.

Will largely depend if Booker looks normal and/or tweaks injury again, if Payne plays better, Shamet steps up, Crowder doesn't go cold, etc. Very happy with other core starters overall with Ayton/Bridges defense and efficiency and of course Paul.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1326 » by bwgood77 » Wed Dec 8, 2021 4:03 pm

Saberestar wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


1. Covington.
He has been slowing down badly for the last two seasons. Last year he was bad but his production and numbers this current season are ATROCIOUS and he is a big negative on offense and now even on defense. Ask Blazers fans about him...

He is making around $13M so we would need to trade Saric and he would help us more as a locker room guy and playing next season (or even late this season) than Covington.

Watching his stats, this is crazy...he has shot 3 FTs in 25 games! And he is shooting 39% from the floor. Not surprise because last year's shot 40%.


2. Torrey Craig.
He didn't want to be back and he is under contract for next season ($5.1M). We will need that money for Ayton's extension, it would be better to trade for an expiring contract or sign a player in the buyout market.

And he hasn't been good for the Pacers. He is OK, but we couldn't play him against the Bucks in the Finals because he isn't good enough.

Is he better than Nader? Yeah, true, but we can get someone MUCH better than Nader before the playoffs.


3.Boucher.
I would be OK with Boucher, but I don't like him a lot because he lacks awareness and feel for the game.

I would trade for him over Covington and Craig, because he at least is an expiring and we wouldn't need to give up Saric for him.


Boucher is not worth it either. Even though GoK repeatedly posts that he blocks .9 3s per 100 possessions that isn't exactly that many, even though it is league leading. He wouldn't play much. He is not worth his contract. He shoots 18% from 3 and plays 13 minutes for the Raptors who don't have much for a C.

We couldn't play him at PF with his shooting and we want Ayton/McGee to get all C minutes. I'd rather go small or have Kaminsky at C than him.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1327 » by bwgood77 » Wed Dec 8, 2021 4:06 pm

BobbieL wrote:
Mulhollanddrive wrote:Thad Young still my preference by some margin.

We will only be playing the 9th man significant minutes in playoffs if he's a difference maker and we have nobody that can defend a big PF like he can. Plus he'd be a viable backup C ahead of Saric, Kamsinky, Smith.

The one area we'd take a bit of a leap of faith is changing his offensive game to standing in the corner for corner 3s.


I would be okay with Craig as it would be a natural fit for Smith as the trade partner plus you would still have one roster spot for a buyout candidate

If you wait for the buyout market - thats fine too - even if Young. I wonder if a guy like Gary Harris gets bought out by the Magin - he might be a guy the team could use - scoring off the bench


I doubt we want ANY salary for next year. If we wanted Craig we would have kept him. I doubt they trade him for whatever we offer.

No one will want Smith for someone who expires since they can't re-sign him for more than another team so they wouldn't want him to play too well or obviously too poorly either.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1328 » by Slim Charless » Wed Dec 8, 2021 5:49 pm

AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:With the news of CJ McCollum being diagnosed with a collapsed right lung and no timetable for a return,


Does it now look more likely that Lillard leaves, OR they look to blow it up with the Simmons trade likely dead now?

Should we have interest in trading for Covington as an alternative to Thad Young? Both are expirings. Covington at 12 million this season and Young at 14 million this season. Could Covington experience a resurgence here with Paul and Monty? If Portland is headed for a rebuild anyways, Would/ should they consider asset accumulation soon?

Would something along the lines of: Smith/ Saric and a first be appealing for them at this point? How much deeper could Covington make our bench this season too?

Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


A Dame trade is fully on the table now imo. He wanted them to trade CJ for Simmons. That's not happening now.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1329 » by Bogyo » Wed Dec 8, 2021 6:01 pm

AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:With the news of CJ McCollum being diagnosed with a collapsed right lung and no timetable for a return,


Does it now look more likely that Lillard leaves, OR they look to blow it up with the Simmons trade likely dead now?

Should we have interest in trading for Covington as an alternative to Thad Young? Both are expirings. Covington at 12 million this season and Young at 14 million this season. Could Covington experience a resurgence here with Paul and Monty? If Portland is headed for a rebuild anyways, Would/ should they consider asset accumulation soon?

Would something along the lines of: Smith/ Saric and a first be appealing for them at this point? How much deeper could Covington make our bench this season too?

Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


Cov would be able to challange Crowder for the starting 4 spot. Not sure he would get it, but there would be a chance. He would be a bigger upgrade than what I expect.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1330 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Dec 8, 2021 6:18 pm

lilfishi22 wrote:
darealjuice wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:At the quarter season mark, the Phoenix Suns are:

#7 in Offensive Rating
#2 in Defensive Rating (behind GSW)
#3 in Net Rating (behind GSW and UTA)
#4 in AST/TO at 1.90
#29 in Offensive Rebounding %
#21 in Defensive Rebounding %
#9 (lowest) in TOV
#3 in EFG%
#4 in TS%
#4 in Pace
#1 in FG%
#5 in 3P%
#15 in FT%
#13 in FTA
#4 in Assist per game
#11 (lowest) in TOV per game
#4 in Steals per game
#28 in Blocks per game
#4 in Opponent FG%
#17 in Opponent 3P%
#10 (lowest) in Opponent FTA
#5 (lowest) in Opponent TOV


There's no reason that we should be #29 in ORB% and #28 in Blocks per Game with Ayton and McGee playing center. Obviously there's some Frank time in there, but he's also averaged (slightly) more blocks per game than Ayton in less playing time so far this season.

I've heard/read that it's scheme related in that our focus is to get back on defense rather than offensive rebounding. But that's not reflected in the stats since we give up the 10th highest opponents fast break points. As for the blocks, McGee is the only one that's historically a good shot blocker, Ayton doesn't block a ton of shots but just plays solid defense.
It's definitely scheme driven, their guards and wings very rarely crash the boards.

I'm looking at NBA.com stats right now and if you break down the offensive rebounding numbers even more you'll see the suns are actually last in the league in offensive rebounding chances per game (likely due shooting well from both the floor and line). The suns actually rank pretty high in getting contested offensive rebounds. As far as chances Memphis leads the league with about 30 ORB chances a game and the Suns are last with a about 19.

On pure ORB per game the entire league is between 9-13 with basically everyone except 4 teams (Min, Tor, Memphis, and NO) being under 11 per game. It's not like those 4 teams are using their orb superiority to win more than others. In fact pretty much all the good teams are at the bottom in ORB (partly due to good teams making more of their shots). But overall it's just not a stat that really tells you much because everyone is bunched pretty closely.

In that Milwaukee series I thought it was defense rebounding that hurt the suns far more than their own ORB. A big part of that is Giannis, you need to send help when he drives which leaves their players free to hit the boards. Plus they shoot a lot of 3s and misses on 3s tend to be long rebounds that can come down to dumb luck on who it bounces to.

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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1331 » by NapoleonII » Wed Dec 8, 2021 6:21 pm

Ayton is consistently, weirdly not given credit for a lot of his blocks.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1332 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Wed Dec 8, 2021 6:38 pm

NapoleonII wrote:Ayton is consistently, weirdly not given credit for a lot of his blocks.


It's been a constant throughout his career, and it's really hard to understand. We're not talking borderline blocks, either. Straight up blocks. Not counted. Happens at home and away.

Can't wrap my head around it.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1333 » by BobbieL » Wed Dec 8, 2021 7:19 pm

Slim Charless wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:With the news of CJ McCollum being diagnosed with a collapsed right lung and no timetable for a return,


Does it now look more likely that Lillard leaves, OR they look to blow it up with the Simmons trade likely dead now?

Should we have interest in trading for Covington as an alternative to Thad Young? Both are expirings. Covington at 12 million this season and Young at 14 million this season. Could Covington experience a resurgence here with Paul and Monty? If Portland is headed for a rebuild anyways, Would/ should they consider asset accumulation soon?

Would something along the lines of: Smith/ Saric and a first be appealing for them at this point? How much deeper could Covington make our bench this season too?

Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


A Dame trade is fully on the table now imo. He wanted them to trade CJ for Simmons. That's not happening now.


McCollum getting hurt kind of puts the brakes on a CJ + for Simmons type trade. Olshey really didnt want to trade McCollum for Simmons it seems - snooze you lose

Stephen A mentioned Dame wanting to go to the Garden and the Knicks. But with guys just signing deals like Randle and Fournier, not sure that deal can get done for awhile.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1334 » by Ghost of Kleine » Wed Dec 8, 2021 7:26 pm

Spoiler:
Saberestar wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:Payne/ Shamet/ Covington/ Johnson/ McGee.
** IF we couldn't swing a trade for Craig back from Indy??

Or we could flip Saric/ Hutchison and a first to Indy for Craig. And then Smith/ Nader and two 2nds for Boucher?

Now having a bench of:
Payne/ Shamet/ Craig/ Boucher/ Mcgee.
** Johnson takes a 6th man role this season. Sharing time with Boucher situationally. Cam on offense and Boucher on defense ( small ball lineups)? In either trade we upgrade our bench depth big time, and only lose players that don't really play much anyways. And minimal draft assets. :rock:


Cov would be great here


1. Covington.
He has been slowing down badly for the last two seasons. Last year he was bad but his production and numbers this current season are ATROCIOUS and he is a big negative on offense and now even on defense. Ask Blazers fans about him...

He is making around $13M so we would need to trade Saric and he would help us more as a locker room guy and playing next season (or even late this season) than Covington.

Watching his stats, this is crazy...he has shot 3 FTs in 25 games! And he is shooting 39% from the floor. Not surprise because last year's shot 40%.


2. Torrey Craig.
He didn't want to be back and he is under contract for next season ($5.1M). We will need that money for Ayton's extension, it would be better to trade for an expiring contract or sign a player in the buyout market.

And he hasn't been good for the Pacers. He is OK, but we couldn't play him against the Bucks in the Finals because he isn't good enough.

Is he better than Nader? Yeah, true, but we can get someone MUCH better than Nader before the playoffs.


3.Boucher.
I would be OK with Boucher, but I don't like him a lot because he lacks awareness and feel for the game.

I would trade for him over Covington and Craig, because he at least is an expiring and we wouldn't need to give up Saric for him.


1. Covington.
He has been slowing down badly for the last two seasons. Last year he was bad but his production and numbers this current season are ATROCIOUS and he is a big negative on offense and now even on defense. Ask Blazers fans about him...

He is making around $13M so we would need to trade Saric and he would help us more as a locker room guy and playing next season (or even late this season) than Covington.

Watching his stats, this is crazy...he has shot 3 FTs in 25 games! And he is shooting 39% from the floor. Not surprise because last year's shot 40%.


My thinking with Covington was basically that he's only 30. He's still got solid potential as a very good/ versatile defender, and even though he's in a slump, Which I attribute more to environment in Portland, rather than decline. He was in a poor situation with neither McCollum or Lillard being facilitators. Portlands' front office has been unstable obviously and their roster has been a poor mashup of various players, etc. But Covington is still a top tier defender whose very versatile guarding the perimeter as well as being disruptive and getting deflections.


And getting a player of his caliber for an injured player that won't likely play at all for us this season and is basically dead salary tied up, and what looks to be a very late first is absolutely worth it if it helps our bench depth and puts us over the top. I believe that in a better and more stable situation, under a coach like Monty Williams and especially playing with someone of Paul's caliber, He could experience a resurgence here as players have in the past at times. I believe Paul will elevate his game again, just as he's repeatedly proven to do over the years.

Furthermore, I'm not worried at all about his offense honestly as I'd have him at the backup small forward position flanked by both Shamet at the 2, and Johnson at the 4.
So our bench would basically be balanced with:

Offense-
Payne, Shamet, Cam Johnson.

Defense
Covington- Small forward, McGee- Center.

Yes, Covington is making just under 13 million as an expiring contract. 1 million less than Thad Young whom we were also discussing moving a similar package for. But I'm not concerned about locker room presence, As we have that well covered throughout our roster. Paul, Crowder, Booker, Johnson, McGee, Bridges are all solid locker room presences already. I'm looking at actual on court impact for THIS actual season as our window for contention is pretty small. Saric, really contributes nothing for us on the court this season in terms of on court impact or helping us win. Again, He represents $8.5 million in wasted cap space. He may be a good locker room guy for sure, But we already have that in Kaminsky on a vet minimum. As a contender with a very small window of contention, Should we really be tying up 8+ million in dead salary for a cheerleader at best, When we already have one for 7 million less? We need to optimize all avenues towards contention. Sitting on 8 million and getting nothing out of it is silly. Covington at a minimum could provide top tier defense at our backup 3 position, And would give us more depth and versatility without any longterm investment. If you're a contending team that's serious about winning, You go all in, you don't sit on things and plan for next year.

2. Torrey Craig.
He didn't want to be back and he is under contract for next season ($5.1M). We will need that money for Ayton's extension, it would be better to trade for an expiring contract or sign a player in the buyout market.

And he hasn't been good for the Pacers. He is OK, but we couldn't play him against the Bucks in the Finals because he isn't good enough.

Is he better than Nader? Yeah, true, but we can get someone MUCH better than Nader before the playoffs.


I'm not so sure that it was a matter of him not wanting to be back, as much as it was our front office choosing the cheaper and overall lesser option. We opted to give Nader 3 million instead of the 5 million that Craig recieved. I get the not wanting to commit to a 2nd yr honestly, But signed Paul at a discount already, We got Mikal at a discount as well, We didn't pick up Smith's option either. Even with overpaying for Shamet this season, his last two yrs being unguaranteed represents yet another discount towards our cap interests. On top of all of those discounts, We can pay Ayton the full max IF we so choose. So I'm not sure that 5 million will be the determining factor in whether we resign him or let him walk.

I'm not against trading for an expiring contract or adding depth via the buyout market either, I agree with you on that idea. Although I'm not too sure who will be available/ attainable for us. And kind of like the bird in hand scenario better to be honest! I also get that we couldn't play him against Giannis, Really only Ayton could guard Giannis reasonably, UNTIL they got him in foul trouble. But that's why we picked up McGee. Again, I'm not looking at Craig with the intention of playing him against Giannis anyways. I'm looking at Craig as an upgrade over Nad3r whose been lousy, and Hutchinson who hasn't even really played much at all.
3.Boucher.
I would be OK with Boucher, but I don't like him a lot because he lacks awareness and feel for the game.

I would trade for him over Covington and Craig, because he at least is an expiring and we wouldn't need to give up Saric for him.


Fair enough. I just again see him as a potential upgrade this season for our bench, basically replacing Smith's role ( who isn't even playing).Both are expirings with no long term or significant investment attached. But for all of his lack of awareness and feel, He's more experienced than Smith currently. Has actual playoff experience AND is a two time nba champion. Again, adding the Paul and Monty factor to this equation too, I feel whomever we bring in, Paul will elevate their games and get the most out of them. Lastly, I'm looking at this scenario as basically a swap of Smith and 2nds for Boucher. So at the cost of a player who doesn't even play ( Hutchinson) or a lousy one ( Nader) an expiring whom we aren't playing or keeping anyways ( Smith) and one or two 2nds ( we don't even care about the draft either it seems), We upgrade our bench frontcourt WHILST STILL being able to add a player ftom the buyout market for our remaining exception!
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1335 » by King4Day » Wed Dec 8, 2021 7:47 pm

"Sometimes, the dragon wins" #RallyTheValley
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1336 » by Slim Charless » Wed Dec 8, 2021 7:55 pm

BobbieL wrote:
Slim Charless wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Cov would be great here


A Dame trade is fully on the table now imo. He wanted them to trade CJ for Simmons. That's not happening now.


McCollum getting hurt kind of puts the brakes on a CJ + for Simmons type trade. Olshey really didnt want to trade McCollum for Simmons it seems - snooze you lose

Stephen A mentioned Dame wanting to go to the Garden and the Knicks. But with guys just signing deals like Randle and Fournier, not sure that deal can get done for awhile.


Yeah I saw that too. I'm not sure NYK have what it takes to get him, unless PDX just decides to do Dame a solid.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1337 » by bwgood77 » Wed Dec 8, 2021 8:59 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
lilfishi22 wrote:
darealjuice wrote:
There's no reason that we should be #29 in ORB% and #28 in Blocks per Game with Ayton and McGee playing center. Obviously there's some Frank time in there, but he's also averaged (slightly) more blocks per game than Ayton in less playing time so far this season.

I've heard/read that it's scheme related in that our focus is to get back on defense rather than offensive rebounding. But that's not reflected in the stats since we give up the 10th highest opponents fast break points. As for the blocks, McGee is the only one that's historically a good shot blocker, Ayton doesn't block a ton of shots but just plays solid defense.
It's definitely scheme driven, their guards and wings very rarely crash the boards.

I'm looking at NBA.com stats right now and if you break down the offensive rebounding numbers even more you'll see the suns are actually last in the league in offensive rebounding chances per game (likely due shooting well from both the floor and line). The suns actually rank pretty high in getting contested offensive rebounds. As far as chances Memphis leads the league with about 30 ORB chances a game and the Suns are last with a about 19.

On pure ORB per game the entire league is between 9-13 with basically everyone except 4 teams (Min, Tor, Memphis, and NO) being under 11 per game. It's not like those 4 teams are using their orb superiority to win more than others. In fact pretty much all the good teams are at the bottom in ORB (partly due to good teams making more of their shots). But overall it's just not a stat that really tells you much because everyone is bunched pretty closely.

In that Milwaukee series I thought it was defense rebounding that hurt the suns far more than their own ORB. A big part of that is Giannis, you need to send help when he drives which leaves their players free to hit the boards. Plus they shoot a lot of 3s and misses on 3s tend to be long rebounds that can come down to dumb luck on who it bounces to.

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Well obviously part of the offensive rebound opportunities and where we are, are a direct result of us having the highest FG% in the NBA. Also, we shoot almost the fewest 3s and those are more likely to be offensive rebounds by the opposition and there will be more misses due to lower %s from out there....and they bounce out further typically for other players to get them.

If Book/Paul miss the short/midrange shots where Ayton is setting a screen it will typically also be a fairly easy defensive rebound because misses won't bounce far.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1338 » by bwgood77 » Wed Dec 8, 2021 9:02 pm

ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
NapoleonII wrote:Ayton is consistently, weirdly not given credit for a lot of his blocks.


It's been a constant throughout his career, and it's really hard to understand. We're not talking borderline blocks, either. Straight up blocks. Not counted. Happens at home and away.

Can't wrap my head around it.


Honestly I think contesting shots and forcing guys to get a low FG% is more important than chasing blocks anyway. I mean what is the most someone averages? 1 or 2 more a game?

He contest guys and gets in their face and has to guard all sorts of players. He's not just always standing in the middle like Gobert blocking guys driving..he is chasing guys on the perimeter or guarding a big.

And often when he chases a guard he is covering into the paint he stuffs them or makes him pass out. He doesn't allow shots or good shots...I prefer that than 1-2 more blocks a game.

It's more unlikely you even get a block back on possession too...it often either goes out of bounds or back to the opposition, whereas a missed FG presents a rebounding opportunity.
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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1339 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Dec 8, 2021 9:28 pm

bwgood77 wrote:
ImNotMcDiSwear wrote:
NapoleonII wrote:Ayton is consistently, weirdly not given credit for a lot of his blocks.


It's been a constant throughout his career, and it's really hard to understand. We're not talking borderline blocks, either. Straight up blocks. Not counted. Happens at home and away.

Can't wrap my head around it.


Honestly I think contesting shots and forcing guys to get a low FG% is more important than chasing blocks anyway. I mean what is the most someone averages? 1 or 2 more a game?

He contest guys and gets in their face and has to guard all sorts of players. He's not just always standing in the middle like Gobert blocking guys driving..he is chasing guys on the perimeter or guarding a big.

And often when he chases a guard he is covering into the paint he stuffs them or makes him pass out. He doesn't allow shots or good shots...I prefer that than 1-2 more blocks a game.

It's more unlikely you even get a block back on possession too...it often either goes out of bounds or back to the opposition, whereas a missed FG presents a rebounding opportunity.
Yeah Blocks might be the most meaningless stat we track in the NBA. Especially since a lot of blocks don't even lead to a change of possession because guys spike them out of bounce to look cool (Ayton is actually pretty good at keeping his blocks in play)

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Re: 2021-22 Season Discussion and Speculation 

Post#1340 » by Ghost of Kleine » Wed Dec 8, 2021 9:34 pm

Spoiler:
bwgood77 wrote:
Saberestar wrote:
AtheJ415 wrote:
Cov would be great here


1. Covington.
He has been slowing down badly for the last two seasons. Last year he was bad but his production and numbers this current season are ATROCIOUS and he is a big negative on offense and now even on defense. Ask Blazers fans about him...

He is making around $13M so we would need to trade Saric and he would help us more as a locker room guy and playing next season (or even late this season) than Covington.

Watching his stats, this is crazy...he has shot 3 FTs in 25 games! And he is shooting 39% from the floor. Not surprise because last year's shot 40%.


2. Torrey Craig.
He didn't want to be back and he is under contract for next season ($5.1M). We will need that money for Ayton's extension, it would be better to trade for an expiring contract or sign a player in the buyout market.

And he hasn't been good for the Pacers. He is OK, but we couldn't play him against the Bucks in the Finals because he isn't good enough.

Is he better than Nader? Yeah, true, but we can get someone MUCH better than Nader before the playoffs.


3.Boucher.
I would be OK with Boucher, but I don't like him a lot because he lacks awareness and feel for the game.

I would trade for him over Covington and Craig, because he at least is an expiring and we wouldn't need to give up Saric for him.


Boucher is not worth it either. Even though GoK repeatedly posts that he blocks .9 3s per 100 possessions that isn't exactly that many, even though it is league leading. He wouldn't play much. He is not worth his contract. He shoots 18% from 3 and plays 13 minutes for the Raptors who don't have much for a C.

We couldn't play him at PF with his shooting and we want Ayton/McGee to get all C minutes. I'd rather go small or have Kaminsky at C than him.


Boucher is not worth it either. Even though GoK repeatedly posts that he blocks .9 3s per 100 possessions that isn't exactly that many, even though it is league leading. He wouldn't play much. He is not worth his contract. He shoots 18% from 3 and plays 13 minutes for the Raptors who don't have much for a C.


Why is Boucher not worth it exactly? Again, I'm talking about basically swapping Jalen Smith (a player who doesn't even play and isn't in our plans to keep) and another player in Hutchinson ( who doesn't get any playing time either) and a 2nd or two ( which we apparently could care less about) for another equivalent expiring contract. So there'd be no long term or significant investment or risk attached. Boucher is a 2 time nba champion with playoff experience and a very beneficial skillset in an area of weakness for us. He's basically a more experienced, vet ready version of what we want Smith to be, But aren't willing to develop!

I get that as you already pointed out above, .9 blocks per 100 possessions on threes is not many, But as you pointed out too, it's still league leading. That's because not many players in the nba block many threes. Meaning that Boucher's skillset and abilities are still rare. He doesn't play much as some raptor fans pointed out because of his slight frame mainly. As to whether he'll play much for us, That'll probably be situational primarily. But that's still fine as he's really only filling Smith's role as an expiring yet more impactful version of Smith anyways.

I think that the valuation on his contractual worth is also situational and would be highly predicated upon his usage and primary role, and situational fit. In the right scheme,
I think he can be highly effective and well worth his 7 million currently. Obviously though, if he's not playing many minutes, he wouldn't put up monster stats often. And if he's only playing 13 minutes for the raptors, How much can he really get into a consistent rythym as a shooter?
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bouchch01.html
* When he ( in 2021) actually got 24 minutes, he apparently shot 51% FG and 38% from three. So I'd wager again that his 18% from three is primarily based upon him never really shooting them much because his primary role is on the defensive end of the floor. Still his form looks good when you watch him shoot, So I'm not to worried about being unable play at the 4 due to shooting. Obviously his value to us would be in his elite potential as a perimeter defender on threes. As well as his elite potential on recovery and weakside rim protection. His defense on the perimeter would be very beneficial/ impactful for us against the elite shooting teams that we'll face that have killed us from three as well as weakside rotations. The shooting ( If/ when) it progresses is an added bonus. But this is his value to us in a trade as a contender this season. Here's an example of his percieved value for us in a trade:


And here's a few examples of his ( offensive) impact/ potential IF actually given playing time!! Check out how many 30 point games he has and how many double/ doubles.





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