Official Trade Thread - Part XLII

[nate33]

1) A max Beal will never be as bad as Russ...

If you think, on the 2 guys' careers, that Bradley Beal is a better player than Russell Westbrook, it'll be hard to have a rational discussion, because he hasn't been nearly as good, nowhere close to what Westbrook has done. Brad has been a terrific player, especially for the 5 years prior to this one. Russ has been better. Way better.

For that matter, if you think Beal was better than Westbrook last year, when they were both Wizards, then that too indicates an emotional rather than a rational assessment of the two players.

I'm not arguing about their careers, Im talking about now. And to your latter point...
Lets look the previous two year (Russ in Houston and DC)

Beal (Per 36): 31 / 4.5 / 5 with a TS of 59% and BPM of 3.1
Russ (Per 36): 24.5 / 10 / 9.5 with a TS of 52% and BPM of 2.5

Beal essentially gave you 6.5 more points on 2.5 FGA and 1.5 more FTA (TS of 105% !!!). That cannot be understated.
Now, you could argue about the additional assist and rebounds, but I would counter with Russ bringing down team rebounding and assist in exchange for his numbers. I.E. I dont think those numbers added much of anything.

Finally, we cant ignore that Russ limits your team/rotation because of his inability to play off the ball. You live and die with Russ. Beal has shown the ability to play the lead guard role as well as elite off-ball action. Beal can fit into many lineups/roles, where Russ simply cant.

Oh, and as bad as Beal has been this year, you dont seem to bring up that Russ has had a 30% drop in rebounds AND assist from last year while his turnovers have stayed the same. Out of the 15 players with minutes for LAL this year, Russ is #13 in +/- at -7.2...

Our offense has been terrible this year, but with the roster and coaching turnover I think we owe WUJ a few more weeks to install a bit more nuance and get our players better looks.

You're wasting your breath. PIF will never acknowledge that individual rebounding numbers overstate a player's impact. He is going to look at Westbrook's 10 rebounds and game and count it as 5 extra possessions, which will overwhelm Beal's superior efficiency at everything else. He'll disregard Beal's spacing, the secondary effects of Westbrook's turnovers (not just the lost opportunity, but the likely fast break in the other direction), and the fact that the team rebounded worse with Westbrook on the floor.

[Wizardspride]

Something like Beal + Kuzma for Simmons + Curry would be real interesting.

We would have a ton of shooters to put around Simmons: Curry, KCP, Holiday, Kispert, Bertans, Bryant; and to a lesser extent Dinwiddie, Hachimura and Avdija. Stagger Dinwiddie and Simmons so one ball handler is always on the floor.

There are lots of interesting lineup permutations:
The 3&D lineup: Holiday, KCP, Avdija, Simmons, Gafford
The spread the floor lineup: Curry, KCP, Bertans, Simmons, Bryant
The switch everything jumbo lineup: Simmons, KCP, Bertans, Avdija, Hachimura
The bball IQ lineup: Curry, Dinwiddie, Avdija, Simmons, Harrell

We could have Harrell whip Simmons into shape and toughen him up a bit, before ultimately moving Harrell for picks/prospects and yielding minutes for Bryant.

I like this alot....except I'd prefer to move Rui in this deal.


I want to keep Kyle if at all possible.

[Ruzious]

Just an aside on a trade with Philly, I would ask for 2 extra things from them: 1: A 2024 trade swap option - because Embiid's contract expires in 2023, and they can't just trade their 2024 pick because they've already traded their 2025 FRP (conditionally) - and 2: the rights to Petrusev.

[Frichuela]

So, it seems many of us are in favor of a Beal for Simmons trade. However, and realistically, do we see Ted agreeing to it??

[doclinkin]

So, it seems many of us are in favor of a Beal for Simmons trade. However, and realistically, do we see Ted agreeing to it??

Malcontent who does not work on his game in the offseason and has had friction with other team stars even before this postseason play vs our top 3 draft pick who works with ferocious dedication and no longer misses games to iinjury and who we have nurtured and treated as asst GM and talked up the value of loyalty etc etc etc.

No. Simmons to DC is not a Ted move. Brad would have to have made it clear he wants to move on, and that Philly is one of his preferred destinations. Then Tommy is allowed to listen for offers.

[Frichuela]

So, it seems many of us are in favor of a Beal for Simmons trade. However, and realistically, do we see Ted agreeing to it??

Malcontent who does not work on his game in the offseason and has had friction with other team stars even before this postseason play vs our top 3 draft pick who works with ferocious dedication and no longer misses games to iinjury and who we have nurtured and treated as asst GM and talked up the value of loyalty etc etc etc.

No. Simmons to DC is not a Ted move. Brad would have to have made it clear he wants to move on, and that Philly is one of his preferred destinations. Then Tommy is allowed to listen for offers.

Yep. Nail in the head. Probability of a Beal trade is pretty close to 0 therefore...

[Frichuela]

So, it seems many of us are in favor of a Beal for Simmons trade. However, and realistically, do we see Ted agreeing to it??

Malcontent who does not work on his game in the offseason and has had friction with other team stars even before this postseason play vs our top 3 draft pick who works with ferocious dedication and no longer misses games to iinjury and who we have nurtured and treated as asst GM and talked up the value of loyalty etc etc etc.

No. Simmons to DC is not a Ted move. Brad would have to have made it clear he wants to move on, and that Philly is one of his preferred destinations. Then Tommy is allowed to listen for offers.

Yep. Nail in the head. Probability of a Beal trade is pretty close to 0 therefore...

Unless something very unexpected happens like Boston offering Jaylen Brown and Brad telling Ted&Tommy he wants out prior to the deadline... But then again, Boston may like their chances to wait and get Brad for free in the offseason to pair up with Tatum.

[Dat2U]

It would suck, but I'd let the dude just walk at this point if we can't find a deal. I know I'm dreaming because Ted would panic, but it's what I'd do at this point.

Glad you’re not the Zards GM or owner…because doing that would be ridiculous.

I'm by no means a Beal hater, but I'd let him walk before paying him a 5 year supermax starting at $46M. That's a team crippling contract that would end up looking no better than the Westbrook contract.

I really don't think there's a market out there to pay Beal max money. We are bidding against ourselves.

You don't let him walk. You either deal him before the deadline or you commit to resigning him.

If we were getting the Beal we've seen offensively the last two years with the improved D from this year, I'd say pay that guy. No he's not the #1 option on a contender but very few are and he's a strong #2. But the Beal we've seen on offense this year ... I'd trade him for the best return I could get and say there's a chance we'd be better off.

[nate33]

Glad you’re not the Zards GM or owner…because doing that would be ridiculous.

I'm by no means a Beal hater, but I'd let him walk before paying him a 5 year supermax starting at $46M. That's a team crippling contract that would end up looking no better than the Westbrook contract.

I really don't think there's a market out there to pay Beal max money. We are bidding against ourselves.

You don't let him walk. You either deal him before the deadline or you commit to resigning him.

If we were getting the Beal we've seen offensively the last two years with the improved D from this year, I'd say pay that guy. No he's not the #1 option on a contender but very few are and he's a strong #2. But the Beal we've seen on offense this year ... I'd trade him for the best return I could get and say there's a chance we'd be better off.

I agree.

My point about letting him walk was to establish parameters on our Beal decision process. I'm saying that, if Beal plays the entire season like he has played the last 2 months, we are better off letting him walk than paying him the max. We should take that assessment and act accordingly. That means we should either convince Beal to sign an extension right now at a more reasonable rate, or we should look to trade him.

[badinage]

Christian Wood has reportedly just been made available.

I’d love to have him. But what would it take? He’s not worth giving up the farm for. But I like that he can hit shots from deep. We need that. And he can do a little of everything.

Be great, I think, alongside Gafford. What a frontcourt that would be — Gafford, Wood, Deni.

Man. Yes.

[Ruzious]

Christian Wood has reportedly just been made available.

I’d love to have him. But what would it take? He’s not worth giving up the farm for. But I like that he can hit shots from deep. We need that. And he can do a little of everything.

Be great, I think, alongside Gafford. What a frontcourt that would be — Gafford, Wood, Deni.

Man. Yes.

Good question. They'd want youth, so I'm thinking Rui and Bryant, but both would have to show they're ready to play. Wood's value has gone down, because all of his shooting percentages have declined significantly for the 2nd straight season.

[nate33]

I'm highly suspicious of Christian Wood. He posts great numbers, yet teams just keep wanting to unload him.

[doclinkin]

Glad you’re not the Zards GM or owner…because doing that would be ridiculous.

I'm by no means a Beal hater, but I'd let him walk before paying him a 5 year supermax starting at $46M. That's a team crippling contract that would end up looking no better than the Westbrook contract.

I really don't think there's a market out there to pay Beal max money. We are bidding against ourselves.

You don't let him walk. You either deal him before the deadline or you commit to resigning him.

If we were getting the Beal we've seen offensively the last two years with the improved D from this year, I'd say pay that guy. No he's not the #1 option on a contender but very few are and he's a strong #2. But the Beal we've seen on offense this year ... I'd trade him for the best return I could get and say there's a chance we'd be better off.

The gamble is: can Beal make the adjustment to the new league defensive rules? In the offseason can he truly fix his long jumper and add range, and improve his handle despite double teams and contact. He has generally found ways to improve in offseasons. Can he continue that trend once he has inked a massive contract? Can he continue that trend in a 5 year span that begins at the age at which most players have peaked (27-28)?

Or do the rules changes signal something that works against his ability to succeed or perhaps all players like him (short-ish shooting guards and combo guards). Has he become a dependent player (needs spacing around him to succeed). Does his game no longer make players around him better (Everybody Eats becomes Everybody Waits for Beal to Get Hot ).

The decay in his 3FG% is the real question. If he cannot hit 3's he has no utility for any contending team, especially at max prices. If he cannot play off the ball then he does not fit with other teams' tier 1 stars.

[Dat2U]

I'm highly suspicious of Christian Wood. He posts great numbers, yet teams just keep wanting to unload him.

They were winning too much. This was part or the reason of not playing Wall. They were obviously trying to tank and tank hard. Wood is in prime and speeding up the rebuild with his play.

[NatP4]

Can we get Cam Payne and Mikal Bridges+filler from the Suns for Beal?

That would be absolutely horrible for Phoenix, but the NBA is obsessed with that star power.

[pcbothwel]

Can we get Cam Payne and Mikal Bridges+filler from the Suns for Beal?

That would be absolutely horrible for Phoenix, but the NBA is obsessed with that star power.

Esshhh. Hard pass.
Mikal bridges is a great role player, but he doesn’t create and rebounds like a guard. He’s a poor man’s Otto with better health prospects.
Efficiency looks great, but such a low usage and already 25 doesn’t bode well for anything beyond a 4th option. With his new extension, I don’t see tremendous value.

And cam Payne is simply filler. Dude has completely regressed.

[FAH1223]

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[Dat2U]

So, it seems many of us are in favor of a Beal for Simmons trade. However, and realistically, do we see Ted agreeing to it??

Malcontent who does not work on his game in the offseason and has had friction with other team stars even before this postseason play vs our top 3 draft pick who works with ferocious dedication and no longer misses games to iinjury and who we have nurtured and treated as asst GM and talked up the value of loyalty etc etc etc.

No. Simmons to DC is not a Ted move. Brad would have to have made it clear he wants to move on, and that Philly is one of his preferred destinations. Then Tommy is allowed to listen for offers.

Yep, we can talk about it all we want but I assumed they are wedded to Beal until Beal says he isn't. It would take an incredibly bold move to switch course early in the season and bold is probably the last word I'd ever use to describe Ted. More than likely Shepp continues to work the fringes and makes a small move or two to help the rotation. Or maybe they bite the bullet and give up something to move Bertans for in preparation to extend Beal and pay Harrell this summer.

[nate33]

Can we get Cam Payne and Mikal Bridges+filler from the Suns for Beal?

That would be absolutely horrible for Phoenix, but the NBA is obsessed with that star power.

Phoenix has Chris Paul and Devin Booker at guard. Why in the world would they want Beal at $45M a year?

[queridiculo]

Beal isn't going to be traded, that's not how the Wizards do business.

Foolish if you ask me, the amount of deference to Beal's demands and wishes doesn't seem warranted and as much of a feel good story Beal ending his career as a Wizards would be, he's not going to be part of a contender on this timeline.

Wizards would be well advised to make a move for Simmons and to reset expectations and the roster.