DoItALL9 wrote:bwgood77 wrote:DoItALL9 wrote:Who (realistically) does this team need to be favorites vs GSW, BKN, & MIL?
Sent from my LM-G710 using
RealGM mobile app
I don't know who were favorites going into the finals last year. I think we were and were up 2-0 winning fairly easily, with a bad game and then 3 close games that could have gone either way after that.
I think the main difference other than Giannis being himself and the main thing was how he uncharacteristically went 17-19 in game 6 from the line in a fairly close game.
But other than Giannis was our playoff inexperience of everyone but Crowder and Paul. No one else had ever even played in a playoff game and we know the Bucks took their lumps in the playoffs.
Brooklyn is tough for anyone if they were at full strength, but Harden doesn't look great any more. The Warriors are tough, and with Klay back if he's reasonably healthy I am not sure you expect anyone to really beat them since you have their main core from the 73 win team and Wiggins/Poole instead of Barnes....no Bogut but Looney is decent and they have pretty good depth. May depend somewhat on their young guys too.
I think a fully healthy Clippers team might be our toughest matchup along with a healthy GS since Kawhi is a beast in the playoffs.
But the Suns core is getting better and Paul's not really getting any worse..in fact last year was his best year in a while. But Shamet/Payne need to get better.
I think if the Suns can get someone like Thad Young in the buyout market it would be huge.
I think I'd agree with basically everything you said here. I really hope Thad Young finds his way to Phoenix.
Phoenix could have probably won any of the Finals games, definitely five of the six. My issue was that in the last four they were slowly losing ground as Giannis seemed to be improving.
Phoenix had to work much harder to get their shots as a unit.
Giannis presumably is still getting better incrementally. Phoenix has a bunch of players who are too obviously but it's hard to catch up with a guy at an MVP level. There should to be a couple alternative plans to counter him this season in defense. (McGee might be it?)
I just don't want to see Phoenix get back to the playoffs/Finals and lose the same exact way.
Sent from my LM-G710 using
RealGM mobile app
It always hurt when Ayton sat because he is a solid defender, because Kaminsky or the smaller Craig were out next options, but with the experienced JaVale McGee that gives more size and if they are missing Lopez that is huge. We may have won had we had McGee last year.
As for scoring, I think Bridges and Ayton are gradually becoming more comfortable taking on bigger scoring roles if need be and will continue to do so. Cam Johnson as well.
Jrue's defense is really a big factor in that series, but if CP3 was also dealing with a wrist injury one or both of those factors hurt with a few more turnovers per game than usual...maybe 2 more than usual but that's enough in those close games, even though he shot very well and was our best scorer efficiency wise by far in the finals...over 55% and 52% from 3 and that includes a bad shooting game 3 of like 1/10 or something. That was really is only poor game I think.
But Bridges D is still improving along with Ayton's so to throw them and Crowder at times as well as McGee around the rim at Giannis that helps.
The key is stopping Middleton and Jrue I think...they have also been more banged up. They may get beat before the finals in the east though..you never know. Missing Lopez if they still are will hurt and if they face a pretty healthy Philly, Brooklyn, Miami or Atlanta team, who knows?
Cleveland is slowly coming on too and Mobley is already an elite defender who can guard the perimeter and inside. They have huge size that could match up and be a tough matchup for the Bucks I think too.
They will only get better even with Sexton out with Lauri more comfortable as well as Okoro. Their other bigs and Garland really balling and they have the toughest schedule to date and are still firmly in the race. They could be a first round matchup for the Bucks.
I don't think they'd beat them but could be a longer physical series.
The key for the Suns is hopefully getting the 1 seed. You really don't want to have to face Utah in round 2 and GS in round 3...you'd rather them meet each other in round 2.
Hopefully we can avoid the Lakers in round 1. They looked tough last night with their big 3 gelling and all healthy with THT and Bradley starting. That isn't a bad starting 5 then they have Monk off the bench and maybe someone else emerges or they get someone via buyout.
And if Kawhi comes back along with Murray both those teams could be tough first or even second round opponents. Denver was a WCF team without Porter playing much before they got Gordon so with Murray/Barton/Green/Gordon/Jokic and Morris off the bench that is solid.
Dallas will be tougher too if healthy once Doncic is back in shape. KP getting better too. Luka has missed a number of games but I am not too concerned with them.
The finals are a tall order for anyone though. You usually have to beat at least 3 finals worthy teams. In the west last year we didn't face anyone finals worthy so luck was on our side. If Utah was healthy and knocked out the Clips they would have been or if the hot Mavs knocked out the healthy Clips, who knows, but with AD out along with Kawhi and not facing a healthy Utah we had a pretty good draw even though we may have beaten the Lakers with a healthy AD. No one ever mentions Paul being ineffective in games 2-3 in the Lakers wins because he had that stinger in his arm and couldn't shoot. Those wins were with AD and Paul...Suns would have been better not playing him with one arm but he wanted to play.