HardenGoat wrote:Purely fear based at an irrational level. I liken it to a group on a river that gets to a point they have to jump from a waterfall. Durant leads the way jumping first and the others follow. You can see they are fine and implore you to join them but the fear is still overpowering. Worse there are “supporters” in your ear claiming you will suffer grave consequences if you jump. At some point you have to overcome the irrational fear and just jump.
It is a bad analogy for a few reasons.
1) It assume that because one or many made it safe, each sequential person jumping will also be safe. if there is a 10% risk and the first 9 made it safe and you go next....
2) It assumes that something because clearly safe the instant the act is complete. jumping off a cliff, that is true. you land safely or you dont. Taking a vaccine, not so clear. Maybe their are long term effects. maybe the risk of those effects is small. maybe its negligible. maybe it applies to one gender/race or age demo then another. but its not clear right away.
The data isn't there with vaccines to speak on the long term effects. The data isn;'t even there to speak on the long term effects of COVID. you can say the risk of potentially being infected with COVID is higher then the potential long term risks of the vaccination. You would in general probably be right, but again, we are dealing with alot of unknowns (unlike jumping off the cliff).
Kyrie as a realtively health 30 year old male in good physical condition stands a low chance of complications. Even with his increased risk of hospitalizaiton (Vaccinated have lower hospital rates) The chance of him having complications if he gets Covid are around 1% The chances he gets COVID are not 100% either. so its fractions of 1% once you come to the probability on that.
The risk for Kyrie getting Covid and having long term effects are somewhere between .001% and 1% depending on what data you go off of for calculating risk of infection and risk in his age/health demographic. For comparison, that same risk for the flu is between .0001% and .33% (back of napkin math, Flu numbers are less readily available, COVID is nicely organized on CDC website).
So its for sure riskier then the flu, but for him, its still really low risk... unless you factor in unknown data on long term effects, but in that case, its true on both sides of the coin... we dont have data on long term effects of the vaccine.
I think it is reasonable, (but likely still more risky) for a vegan native american who has been very concerned where his food and drugs come from long before COVID happeneds to:
-accept short term risks of getting covid and having covid complications
-wait for emergency approval of plant based vaccine you either have less concerns about or have more trust that it contains things you are willing to put in your body.
If Kyrie was one of these MAGA dolts injection their kids with Horse medication id be with you. I dont think his approach is really all that unreasonable... especially since he has for a long time been concerned about organic and plant based food and therapies