2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#701 » by falcolombardi » Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:57 am

ShotCreator wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:Jokic just toys with Trez. I find the Nuggets sometimes gets bored with feeding Jokic the ball and then ends up with several empty possessions in a row. They really don't have the luxury to do that.

Ive seen Jokic’ season and hype just boiled down to just “boxscore stuffing”. If you watch literally shy game. Any. Not even his absolute best(which are hard to differentiate than his usual, literally), you will see this guy is not playing gimmicky, or unsustainable ball on any level.

You pretty much just said it. He leaves PTT PTS/AST/REB on the table if anything. In the trip to SA, Denver just went long random amounts of time without feeding him. It’s not like it takes him burning tones of energy to be effective. Half his assists are at a stand still. They could at least give him constant touches in half court.

He is as good as his stats. Literally no deception, no outlier circumstance. He is just this good. And it’s obvious when you watch him.


if you had to put this version of jokic in a historic peak sense aa far as impact and abikity to lead a team to winning how high would you go on him?

as high as jordan or lebron? maybe comparable to bird?
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#702 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:01 am

falcolombardi wrote:i feel like lebron 2005 season may be a better 19 years old season than 2019 luka, and same about 2006 lebron over 2020 luka (but that one could go either way, i just like the impact stats of lebron more)

but you are completely right beyond thst nitpick, luka has been insanely ahead of the pack at 20, 19, even 18 in europe that is premature to worry too much (yet) over a down year coming after a grueling shortened season + no full break cause olympics


Yeah that's fine if its not the best age 19 or 20 season. But you get the point. He was impressive as a rookie when most rookies are terrible. Then made a big jump to a top 10ish level player his 2nd and 3rd years. But the impact is generally going to trail the stats for most young players. If we still aren't seeing a lot of evidence in some of the +/- stuff 2 and 3 years from now, then yeah I think that's a good indication that for all the production and the highlights, that there is some empty calories to it.

But he won in Europe, almost got his country a medal at the Olympics and while Dallas is pretty mediocre right now, he got them to the playoffs probably 2 years ahead of schedule. He wins. And cares desperately about winning. Just hasn't figured it all out at this highest of levels yet. Which has been true for the vast majority of even star level players. Lebron and Mike both 5 years away from their first title at Luka's age for instance.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#703 » by eminence » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:34 am

A note on Jokic and 'luck adjustment'.

Jokic is either one of the truly unluckiest players alive, or the adjustments done aren't 'luck' in his case. In 5 of his 6 full seasons to date (exception being '19 where he was about equal) he's finished significantly more highly ranked in LA-RAPM than in the non-adjusted versions. This is not a significant trend I've seen with other stars I've checked for (Curry, Giannis, LeBron, Harden, KD, CP3, Kawhi, Dray, Gobert, Embiid).
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#704 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:36 am

eminence wrote:A note on Jokic and 'luck adjustment'.

Jokic is either one of the truly unluckiest players alive, or the adjustments done aren't 'luck' in his case. In 5 of his 6 full seasons to date (exception being '19 where he was about equal) he's finished significantly higher in LA-RAPM than in the non-adjusted versions. This is not a significant trend I've seen with other stars I've checked for (Curry, Giannis, LeBron, Harden, KD, CP3, Kawhi, Dray, Gobert, Embiid).


Does it go back to KG in Minnesota? Because isn't he considered the unluckiest superstar ever pretty much? That might be telling if his numbers look nothing like Jokic' either.

Though certainly the past couple seasons have definitely been unlucky for Jokic in terms of teammate injuries.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#705 » by falcolombardi » Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:43 am

serious question, but what does luck adjustment stats actually mean?

is it like taking the 3pt shooting of the other team and adjust it to their average (like if they shot 50% vs you and their average is 38 the stat adjusts to that 38) or somethingh like that?
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#706 » by ShotCreator » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:37 am

falcolombardi wrote:
ShotCreator wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:Jokic just toys with Trez. I find the Nuggets sometimes gets bored with feeding Jokic the ball and then ends up with several empty possessions in a row. They really don't have the luxury to do that.

Ive seen Jokic’ season and hype just boiled down to just “boxscore stuffing”. If you watch literally shy game. Any. Not even his absolute best(which are hard to differentiate than his usual, literally), you will see this guy is not playing gimmicky, or unsustainable ball on any level.

You pretty much just said it. He leaves PTT PTS/AST/REB on the table if anything. In the trip to SA, Denver just went long random amounts of time without feeding him. It’s not like it takes him burning tones of energy to be effective. Half his assists are at a stand still. They could at least give him constant touches in half court.

He is as good as his stats. Literally no deception, no outlier circumstance. He is just this good. And it’s obvious when you watch him.


if you had to put this version of jokic in a historic peak sense aa far as impact and abikity to lead a team to winning how high would you go on him?

as high as jordan or lebron? maybe comparable to bird?


I’d have to do some guessing on pre-97 guys impact. And probably still ignoring some crazy stretches.

But Curry’s dominance is pretty covered and analyzed, and he’s most likely a GOAT level offensive player by any measure. Jokic is going b2b years topping his impact.

What that means to me, is we have a guy at GOAT-ish offense levels, with the defensive level of Marc Gasol, prime Nick Collison, or like Nets KG. Just some really disruptive positioning D to top it off. That’s maybe GOAT.

Jordan is more or less GOAT level offense. Probably at the lower end of what that means. With some questionable, but good defense. Questionable because he wasn’t a positioning god, he was a gambling demon, and got all the good and bad with that.

He’s likely got the GOAT prime stretch and peak to me. Like real, reliably sustained level.

But this isn’t a sustained level yet. It’s a small sample.

Of small samples I’ve seen, and I haven’t seen close to all of them, but several significant ones, I’d say Jokic is around these:

90 Jordan(playoffs)
17 Kawhi(playoffs)
17 LeBron(playoffs)
16 Curry thru Christmas
09 LeBron(playoffs)

All these are guys who created offense at the highest level of volume and efficiency(and maybe beyond that in Curry’s case), with some varying levels of good defense.

Jokic feels better than 17 LeBron, 90 Jordan, 17 Kawhi, and not quite as good as 16 Curry in the beginning of 2015-16. Just my feeling.

09 LeBron is a trickier one. He doesn’t feel better, but it’s a smaller, more erratic sample.

Still absolute max effort LeBron could be true short-term GOAT.



If somebody else had some stretch of playing unthinkably good, forgive me to them, and point me to them.

02 and 03 Duncan could be getting overlooked, but I haven’t really analyzed those in great detail. Maybe I should.

77 Kareem is one I know of. But just know of.

But yeah to me this is a special start to a season. GOAT LEVEL without a doubt And I really could be underrating it just because of a lack of really comparable archetypes.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#707 » by Peregrine01 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:44 pm

Re: Jokic's defense - he's leading the league in DRB% at 38% and also has one of the lowest turnover rate as an offensive anchor at 14.5% (for reference, Draymond, the other prominent playmaking big, has a turnover rate of 31% :o). Both defensive rebounding and limiting turnovers helps to limit quality offensive possessions for the opposing team.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#708 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:11 pm

falcolombardi wrote:serious question, but what does luck adjustment stats actually mean?

is it like taking the 3pt shooting of the other team and adjust it to their average (like if they shot 50% vs you and their average is 38 the stat adjusts to that 38) or somethingh like that?


Yup it is like you said. Also does it for freethrows, etc. Here are some articles that go into deeper detail https://fansided.com/2018/01/08/nylon-calculus-calculating-luck-adjusted-ratings/

Luck-adjusted data, adjusts for factors that are out of an individual team's control. For instance, free throw shooting and three point shooting in studies have been been shown are things in studies' players have limited control over (generally). Another example is adjusting for rebounding and turnovers to attempt to limit the noise from the final values.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#709 » by eminence » Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:40 pm

falcolombardi wrote:serious question, but what does luck adjustment stats actually mean?

is it like taking the 3pt shooting of the other team and adjust it to their average (like if they shot 50% vs you and their average is 38 the stat adjusts to that 38) or somethingh like that?


Here's the explanation from NBAshotcharts (where I believe most folks get there LA #s from)

"Expected points is calculated by replacing points scored off free throws and 3s and expected value.
Expected points off Freethrows is calculated as the career free throw percent of the shooter.
Expected points off 3s is calculated as the career points per shot for the shooter from the location of the shot. (For a shooter with a career average of 50% from the left corner a shot from the left corner is worth 1.5 points per shot)"

It does not go back to KG (believe it's available from '10 onwards, but I could be off by a season). I don't think KG was particularly unlucky in this way, just in a team construction way (which I'd say Jokic hasn't had the best luck with either - MPJ). Jokic is apparently unlucky in the sense that opponents hit their shots better when he's on the court and his teammates shoot worse than expected based on EPS (expected points per shot).
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#710 » by Outside » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:25 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Read on Twitter
?t=jcoDPIkAGtBScGHwNpdgJg&s=19

i wonder if in the future draymond impact will be more apreciated, cause right now curry is kinda overshadowing him among the general public

very few people are realizing warriors success is coming more from the defensive end than the offensive one, or how their great defense was almost as good as their offense in average, even in the durant years

low key one of the best "sidekicks" in history when considering his defensive impact is fully additive and doesnt take anythingh away in portability issues

scottie pippen is one of the best second stars ever for similar reasons (less defense impact, but more offensive)


Really good breakdown by Ben Taylor in the video showing how connected and anticipatory the Warriors have been on defense. He obviously (and correctly) points to Draymond as a savant at all aspects of defense and their anchor on that end, but something the video also shows is that Curry is second only to Draymond in showing understanding of the defensive principles and "quarterbacking" by directing other players where to go and when to switch.

Overall, it's impressive that the Warriors show such cohesiveness considering how many different coverages they run and that they have several new players.

I do have concerns that Wiseman will be able to mesh effectively into these schemes. It helps that they have Draymond and Curry directing traffic, but it requires a lot of recognition and anticipation. If you're a half-second late, you're toast. No matter how much video he's been watching, Wiseman doesn't have the game experience to operate in team defense at that level. They're going to have to simplify things when he's in the game.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#711 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:30 am

According to Cleaning the glass the Utah Jazz have a +12.6 efficiency differential this season(filtering for garbage time), last year they were +11.3

The 2017 Warriors were +12.8.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#712 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:47 am

eminence wrote:
ShotCreator wrote:
eminence wrote:
SOS shouldn't meaningfully change anything due to which games Jokic missed (IND/CHI/PHO/POR/MIL, with Stephs missed game against DET). I'd have to check numbers, but there's a chance Steph has played a marginally tougher SOS than Jokic to date. Edit: overestimated a bit here (think in my head some of the teams Jokic missed were stronger than they've been to date), but Jokic +0.1 Steph -0.9.

Nobody is going to make the bolded argument because it's a ridiculous argument. Winning games matters, you can't have an MVP of a team game discussion honestly without discussing the teams.

Bringing up team record would not create a discussion at all. How much depth is it possible to have with that method?


I'm sure Doc or fpliii or Chuck or BG or drza or ElGee or etc could have plenty of good discussion involving both individual players and their team success.

Nobody in this thread has pushed for any Suns players to be serious MVP candidates.

And it's not a method. But yet another discussion point. Calling it a method is bordering on insulting too.


So, been meaning to chime in here.

I'm seeing a wave of people who are really, really bothered by Jokic not getting more respect as an MVP candidate, and I largely have no interest in arguing the other side. I'll state unequivocally that Jokic's missed time is hurting him in my assessment so far, but that he's rising quickly when he plays and I could see him taking the lead for me quite quickly. Beyond that, I have had a massive crush on Jokic's game the entire time he's been in the league and I'm cheering him on like crazy.

On the other hand, while it doesn't bother me if people put Jokic above Curry on their list - because I find Jokic to be so damn amazing - it continues to just plain exasperate me the way people consistently a) underestimate how well his team is going to do and then b) try to use the rest of the team - that they dismissed before the season - as a cudgel for tearing Curry down.

More broadly it drives me nuts the way people don't seem to have the foggiest idea how the Warriors' actually achieve such success, but manage to seemingly attack each of the main drivers of the team's success on the grounds of "If I get grasp tangibly how that player/coach is leading to success, it must be because they are getting carried by everyone else around them."

I love that Gary Payton II is having success, but the fact that I'm literally seeing people say that Curry is lucky to be playing with Payton is just infuriating.

So all this to say, I don't mind Curry not being #1 on anyone's list, but I can't participate in more discussions with folks who still don't get how to evaluate Curry all these years later without quickly losing my cool. As with many things in society, those that don't want to see something new will find a way to stay blind.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#713 » by ShotCreator » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:09 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
ShotCreator wrote:Bringing up team record would not create a discussion at all. How much depth is it possible to have with that method?


I'm sure Doc or fpliii or Chuck or BG or drza or ElGee or etc could have plenty of good discussion involving both individual players and their team success.

Nobody in this thread has pushed for any Suns players to be serious MVP candidates.

And it's not a method. But yet another discussion point. Calling it a method is bordering on insulting too.


So, been meaning to chime in here.

I'm seeing a wave of people who are really, really bothered by Jokic not getting more respect as an MVP candidate, and I largely have no interest in arguing the other side. I'll state unequivocally that Jokic's missed time is hurting him in my assessment so far, but that he's rising quickly when he plays and I could see him taking the lead for me quite quickly. Beyond that, I have had a massive crush on Jokic's game the entire time he's been in the league and I'm cheering him on like crazy.

On the other hand, while it doesn't bother me if people put Jokic above Curry on their list - because I find Jokic to be so damn amazing - it continues to just plain exasperate me the way people consistently a) underestimate how well his team is going to do and then b) try to use the rest of the team - that they dismissed before the season - as a cudgel for tearing Curry down.

More broadly it drives me nuts the way people don't seem to have the foggiest idea how the Warriors' actually achieve such success, but manage to seemingly attack each of the main drivers of the team's success on the grounds of "If I get grasp tangibly how that player/coach is leading to success, it must be because they are getting carried by everyone else around them."

I love that Gary Payton II is having success, but the fact that I'm literally seeing people say that Curry is lucky to be playing with Payton is just infuriating.

So all this to say, I don't mind Curry not being #1 on anyone's list, but I can't participate in more discussions with folks who still don't get how to evaluate Curry all these years later without quickly losing my cool. As with many things in society, those that don't want to see something new will find a way to stay blind.

The Warriors were a +1 team last year.

They’re up to +12 now. What could Curry possibly do to be responsible for that kind of shift?

If Draymond got hurt and his minutes were taken up by Wiseman, who was probably the worst player in the NBA last year, Curry would have no more NVP hype than last year. Curry is a on a historically good defensive team, what credit does he deserve that I’m not seeing?

The majority of why the team is good is because of a side of the ball he has relatively no impact on. How else am I supposed to interpret that?
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#714 » by eminence » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:42 am

I actually hadn't really thought about the symmetry between Curry/Gobert until now. Kind of funny as I'm a fan of the two squads. One of the top offensive players anchoring a good offense/great defense team, and one of the top defensive players anchoring a great offense/good defense team.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#715 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:57 am

ShotCreator wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
I'm sure Doc or fpliii or Chuck or BG or drza or ElGee or etc could have plenty of good discussion involving both individual players and their team success.

Nobody in this thread has pushed for any Suns players to be serious MVP candidates.

And it's not a method. But yet another discussion point. Calling it a method is bordering on insulting too.


So, been meaning to chime in here.

I'm seeing a wave of people who are really, really bothered by Jokic not getting more respect as an MVP candidate, and I largely have no interest in arguing the other side. I'll state unequivocally that Jokic's missed time is hurting him in my assessment so far, but that he's rising quickly when he plays and I could see him taking the lead for me quite quickly. Beyond that, I have had a massive crush on Jokic's game the entire time he's been in the league and I'm cheering him on like crazy.

On the other hand, while it doesn't bother me if people put Jokic above Curry on their list - because I find Jokic to be so damn amazing - it continues to just plain exasperate me the way people consistently a) underestimate how well his team is going to do and then b) try to use the rest of the team - that they dismissed before the season - as a cudgel for tearing Curry down.

More broadly it drives me nuts the way people don't seem to have the foggiest idea how the Warriors' actually achieve such success, but manage to seemingly attack each of the main drivers of the team's success on the grounds of "If I get grasp tangibly how that player/coach is leading to success, it must be because they are getting carried by everyone else around them."

I love that Gary Payton II is having success, but the fact that I'm literally seeing people say that Curry is lucky to be playing with Payton is just infuriating.

So all this to say, I don't mind Curry not being #1 on anyone's list, but I can't participate in more discussions with folks who still don't get how to evaluate Curry all these years later without quickly losing my cool. As with many things in society, those that don't want to see something new will find a way to stay blind.

The Warriors were a +1 team last year.

They’re up to +12 now. What could Curry possibly do to be responsible for that kind of shift?

If Draymond got hurt and his minutes were taken up by Wiseman, who was probably the worst player in the NBA last year, Curry would have no more NVP hype than last year. Curry is a on a historically good defensive team, what credit does he deserve that I’m not seeing?

The majority of why the team is good is because of a side of the ball he has relatively no impact on. How else am I supposed to interpret that?


Focus less on individual impact assessment, it's leading you astray.

What's happening this year is a team that's fully in sync with how they are supposed to play on both sides of the ball based on a) Kerr's philosophy, b) Curry's shooting, and c) Green's defense. The result is the team that's been the best in the league this year despite not adding any players who anyone considered to be massive value-adders by any franchise in the league prior to - perhaps - right now.

Re: Wiseman probably the worst player in the NBA last year. He didn't fit effectively with the Warriors' way of playing as a rookie and was only getting major minutes and primacy because they were prioritizing his development over winning.

Re: If Draymond gets hurt. I have no interest in knocking Draymond. What I'd urge folks to recognize is that the Curry-Draymond duo is the backbone of what's produced the best team basketball we've seen in this millennium, and so using one to talk as if the other isn't that special to me misses the point. Doesn't mean Curry needs to be everyone's MVP in this or any other year, but you don't get the best team by having one guy out there by himself.

And yes, traditionally that means guys who have bad luck with their teammates don't do so well in the MVP voting. I applaud you and others for looking to buck that trend, but would also urge caution when minimizing what it takes to be the top player on an incredible team.

Re: Team's strength is not Curry's strength. This is a thing I tend to examine pretty closely because if deeper reads follow the superficial, I consider it quite damning. The implication of the superficial argument though is that if you look closer at the +/-, the star in question won't look that impressive compared to his teammates.

At present, here are the Warriors' leaders in +/-:

Curry +327
Green +174
Wiggins +172

To say that Curry is standing out on a drastic degree is an understatement - folks please don't come back with Jokic or others standing out similarly as if that rebuts my point. My point is not that Curry has to be #1 on people's list, but that it's very, very, very clear that Curry is standing out from his teammates on a level that is not just up to norms for stars on teams with great records, but well ahead of them.

You can be more impressed by other guys, but if you're not gasping over Curry's impact, you're not looking closely enough.

I also can't emphasize enough:

1. GS is choosing to surround Curry with defense-oriented guys, because of what Curry can do on offense. That doesn't make Curry better as a defender, but it does mean that his presence is part of what enables this defense to exist as it does.

2. Defense is not offense. On offense your #5 guy collects dust. On defense, he's the target. That makes him far more critical to the overall success of the side. The league is full of bucket-getters who impersonating sieves on defense, what all of those guys have in common is that they aren't #1 minutes guys on historically dominant defenses. Curry should be getting some (if only a modest) amount of credit here, and instead it's actually being held against him that he's a successful part of a great defense.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#716 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Dec 15, 2021 7:23 am

I thought we were done the MVP discussion, but I personally find it entertaining and don't mind to keep going on if people are interested in doing so. At the same time, I also don't want to be a nuisance so please ignore this if you are tired of the talk.

The way I see it, is that this Curry season so far reminds me a lot of 2011 Derrick Rose's MVP. No, Rose is nowhere as good as Curry. Yes, Curry is a fine MVP candidate in most years. But the competition is stiff. The reality is, I can't find anything suggesting Curry as been as impressive in giving his team as much lift as Jokic. Jokic is ranking as an all-timer in just about all the metrics. The same plus-minus and plus-minus footprints people utilize to say KD isn't as impactful as some say, unanimously state on a per-posession basis that Jokic>Curry and by several standard deviations at that.

But it is more than that. The fact is GSW's defense is arguably playing at a GOAT level right now, and Curry is far from being the biggest proponent ;list=LL&index=3

There is a massive edge in scoring right now. They aren't close. Jokic has been the better defender. He has been the better rebounder. He has been the better passer. Where is this added edge that Curry has over Jokic coming from, other than additional games player (and I qualified my statement saying if Jokic going as he is without missing time, my MVP belief goes to Steph)? Like if the MVP is most valuable player, I still do not see how he has provided more lift than Jokic. I do not see what Steph is doing that Jokic isn't.

Yes, Steph's gravity is real. But the argument has been that Steph's outlier plus-minus in the regular season is due to the very gravity he produces. Yet the same plus-minus numbers this year suggest that Jokic is still well ahead of Steph. I don't see where this idea that people have a vendetta against Steph is coming from? ShotCreator already mentioned he believes that maybe Steph's stretch of play in 2016 is the best he has ever seen. And people have given Steph plenty of flowers this season. However, it doesn't make sense that a GSW that was barely a top 8 seed last year, with Steph playing at a strong MVP level, should now be used as evidence for Steph as MVP because the team is doing well. Steph playing at a strong MVP level doesn't guarantee great team success; so why do we use Jokic's team not being great and Steph's team being great as a point in Steph's favor?

Even if we did buy into winning bias, and say yes, Steph's team being so great is a +1 for Steph even though the 1-8 guys on a roster clearly make a difference in how well a team does; does Jokic triumphing over Steph in just about everything else except gravity really close the gap? And if so, what is the proof that the gravity Steph possesses is as great as perceived?

Steph's averages the last 8 games are 22 pts per game on 35% shooting and 34.8% from 3, and the Warriors are still 5-3.I guess it is a difference in views, but I don't see how it is wrong to view his MVP case with skepticism when someone breaking certain statistical barriers we have upheld on this forum. It isn't closing our eyes to what he does, when we judge everyone else the same way. Maybe I'm not smart enough to understand the intricacies of how Steph is powering GSW's scheme is so historic despite them being a strongly defensively lead team (Steph isn't the only star who has lead defensively slanted rosters to chips, GIannis, Lebron, Kawhi have the previous years).
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#717 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:37 pm

Interesting conversation here.

And I mean this as no criticism of Curry, but I too struggle with some of this. We know this:

Curry played at an MVP level last year. He didn't win MVP, but he was unbelievable. As was Draymond. Despite that the Warriors were not in the playoffs.

Doc is right about the perception of their additions this year. Iggy old. Porter huge injury risk. Bjelicia looked washed last year. Payton a failed journeyman. Rookies are rookies. But perception isn't reality. The reality is those four veterans have all helped.

That's not to say Kerr, Draymond, and Steph aren't huge reasons why those players are succeeding. They definitely are. But if those three could do that with any players, they would have done it last year. The right role players have made a world of difference.

So the Warriors are better in part because of additions that were dismissed. That's on us for missing a reason why Meyers runs that team and not Texas Chuck who would have done something far differently.

I harken back to the Mavs in the summer of 2010 when they had Damp with a fully not-gtd contract(back before the rule changes where you can't do this) to use basically as a walking TPE. They tried desperately to S&T for Joe Johnson using this, but couldn't and settled on Tyson Chandler. Not one person saw that move that summer and thought whoa that was the missing piece for Dallas. But then the season started, and it was whoa Dallas looks really different with this athletic, high level defensive center. What mattered was not perception, but play.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#718 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:07 pm

Doc,

Great article by Tim MacMahon online today detailing some of the issues you have been referencing regarding Luka and Carlisle.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32861454/luka-doncic-rick-carlisle-dissolution-their-relationship-comes-next-dallas-mavericks

I had heard the Salah story before, but a lot of that was new for me.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#719 » by eminence » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:38 pm

The right role players was basically just anyone but Wiseman. 18-21 with him last season, 21-12 without. The worst players in the league are consistently high minutes rookies because they're simply asked to do more than they're capable of in a way other players are not (not a condemnation of them as prospects).

Curry/Dray/Wiggins/Looney/JTA/Lee take up about 60% of the rotation in both seasons.

With the other ~40% went from Bazemore/Oubre/Wiseman/Mulder/Paschall/Wanamaker/Poole to more Poole and added OPJ/Bjelica/Iguodala/GP2 to the rotation.

Warriors with + on/off so far this season
Curry +12.2/100, 927 minutes
JTA +3.2/100, 433 minutes
GP2 +13.6/100, 383 minutes
Iguodala +8.2, 275 minutes
Kuminga +8.8, 130 minutes

Now maybe it really is the GP2/Iguodala/Kuminga less than 800 total minutes (1 starter basically) additions that've taken them from +1 to +12. Or maybe they weren't really close to a +1 team last season when prioritizing winning (I don't have a strength of schedule adjustment, but by MOV they were +7.7 without Wiseman in the lineup last year). Basically, they were already pretty darn good last season and looking at them as a +1 team who made a quantum leap is just silly.

Edit: For completeness, they were at a -4.6 MOV with Wiseman in the lineup. So -4.6 to +7.7 without Wiseman. Actually a slightly larger gap than their one from last season to this one.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#720 » by Texas Chuck » Wed Dec 15, 2021 4:03 pm

eminence wrote: looking at them as a +1 team who made a quantum leap is just silly.


Except that's who they were if you subscribe to the Bill Parcells school of thinking. I get what you are saying. But the reality is this team has taken a massive jump from last year. Maybe is just no Wiseman. But its probably more than just that.

And to the larger point of contention since this was about Curry's impact--using this season's w/l and point diff to say Curry is uniquely great when he was arguably even better last year without it feels like looking at some of the wrong things.

Mind you I think Curry(and Draymond) is uniquely great. Was just weighing in on that specific argument.
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