Official NBA COVID Protocol thread (please read the OP)

[Packbuckman]

Right now seems to be a lower point, at least the players could actually play.

They are not going to be playing in a bubble again and they will have fans in the stands for both leagues. The rest of the world might shut down don’t see that happening in USA unless a more severe strain becomes dominant they will push for boosters.

hope so, the bubble and no fans was not a fun product imo.

Ya I thought it sucked too having fans last playoffs was great! I am hoping the strain that becomes dominant is mild af because that’s what viruses do is mutant

[BoatsNZones]

This is really unfortunate and crappy. I made a thread before the season about how the breakthrough cases were going to shut down the NBA again possibly. I hope it doesn’t come down to this.

How can the NBA continue with zero covid though? Will they change the policy to symptomatic? Or just shut down? The NFL has had 75 positives in the last 2 days (I’m guessing Omicron?).

This is gonna suck.

My opinion: stop testing players who have no symptoms / who aren't sick. If the players association wants a bubble again they will have to give up significant salary. If they're willing to do that, do it. Otherwise, we're going to be in this for years so have to learn to adapt

This ultimately could be the solution, however suggesting it at this stage is wildly irresponsible.

We have some data that suggests this variant is more contagious but in doing so, the virus has weakened itself to the point where its not as lethal of a threat. Now as callous as some people are, they'll suggest diving headfirst into that and if people die, they die. Fortunately society has progressed beyond this, and there are plenty of places compiling data for the new variant right now, and my company is at the ready (already - kinda excited) to dive into the data once our client has decided they have enough clear data to go off of.

What's concerning here is the spike of people who should be otherwise healthy (IE young athletes) getting positive tests. Now its great that its not as lethal, supposedly, right now. But the obvious question should be - if the virus was able to transition to something that ensured it's livelihood, and since the natural progression with viruses is to reproduce and gain strength, we have to be wary of dismissing it as less important, because if it can retain its transmission levels while increasing its strength in the next variant, we've effectively trained it to be as lethal a pandemic as possible.

So testing should continue to occur, and health/safety protocols should remain in place in both the NFL and NBA until we get a better handle on it. All that said, the more likely outcome is the virus becoming more inert, and the fact that its more contagious will give our immune systems more data to work with in defending against this strain and other similar strains. But at this stage leaning heavily into one way (stop testing!) or another (complete lockdown!) is wildly irresponsible

What is concerning about healthy athletes with 0 symptoms returning positive tests, exactly?

Do you understand how ridiculous that sounds? It is an endemic virus. We ALL have it and/or are exposed to the virus daily, I assure you.

These leagues are about to shut down, and NOBODY IS SICK in ANY LEAUGUE. Freddy from the Braves did say it was a battle (he did not have a shot). He almost won MVP after his return. Joel Embiid may or may not have got a shot and he is the only player in the NBA who reportedly had issues (he, also, is playing like an MVP right now. No word on his vaccination status to my knowledge).

Am I the only person that sees a problem with this? I hate politics and I promise you this is not a political "lean". We are two years into this virus. It's time to figure out how we are going to live a normal life among this thing that kills 0.001% of the population (90% of those being the elderly).

[FNQ]

What is concerning about healthy athletes with 0 symptoms returning positive tests, exactly?

... I just explained that.

Like.. really in depth even. How far down my post did you get before you got into your canned rant about how you don't understand medical science and seem to understand better than medical professionals, who actually have a vested interest in getting past COVID too, believe it or not.. about halfway? Couldnt be that even.

I dont know how to answer it again without just copy/pasting.

[BoatsNZones]

What is concerning about healthy athletes with 0 symptoms returning positive tests, exactly?

... I just explained that.

Like.. really in depth even. How far down my post did you get before you got into your canned rant about how you don't understand medical science and seem to understand better than medical professionals, who actually have a vested interest in getting past COVID too, believe it or not.. about halfway? Couldnt be that even.

I dont know how to answer it again without just copy/pasting.

I'll redact and say this. How many months (years?) of data would you feel comfortable with before you're OK with 18-38 year old peak athletes competing without the fear of them being in any significant danger?

Do you suppose we just test for life and continue to suspend all events when a multitude of symptomless people show traces of this virus? Again, we all have it and/or have had it exposed to us. All future variants will be exposed as well. Do you actually think this is something we can contain in the league or otherwise if they take a week off of games? Wake up?

[FNQ]

I'm on the side that's very informed about COVID. And believe me, the whole industry is trying to move forward. But doing so with facts is more important than placating those without, and I dont mean that to sound like a dig, but that's where the situation really is.

Look at it this way - I'll try a basketball analogy.

COVID was like a team having the #1 pick, and selecting someone that the great majority of the planet never heard of. But when you see the player, they just oozed potential. This could be the next LeBron, he's just so effective. So the league now starts preparing for this player as if they were LeBron. This was the first wave of COVID, pre-vaccine.

So his rookie year passes and he has a good year, but you don't think he's LeBron anymore. But he's not all hype, no substance like OJ Mayo either, who will peter out of the league eventually. Think more like Tyreke Evans - great rookie season, and there's still a lot of concern what he can do in the league, but he's not going to be this gamechanging player. And over the next couple seasons, he kinda plateaus, as the league learns how to deal with him. Again - still effective enough of a player to matter, but not someone you think as re-defining the NBA. This is the result immediately after the vaccines dropped.

Then this player goes on the Tyreke arc - he's good enough in NO, but he's clearly beaten up. The NBA is winning the fight against him, though he's still around. But is anyone scared of Tyreke in NO, or when he returned to SAC? Nah - he might get a couple games in there where he blows up, but he's mostly harmless. This was the 6 month+ result of the vaccine, as numbers started to level out and deaths started to drop.

But then Memphis Tyreke happens. Oh wait, the extremely long guard who can pass and defend well now has a 3pt shot. He's back to his 20-5-5 ways. He's in the peak of his career. Now do we believe this year as an outlier, or do we start preparing that Tyreke has started to reach his huge potential?

That's where we are right now. We don't know if COVID will turn into IND Tyreke and peter out of the league. We don't know if its the beginning of something huge for him. All we can do is keep looking at the data, learning, applying it.

Now if you were a head coach, game 1 of the season against a Tyreke led team, right after his Memphis rebirth... would you tell your team not to gameplan for him? Let's just throw caution to the wind, see what happens? Or would you pinpoint him as someone who likely needs to be stopped? And what exactly are the risks if you're wrong in either case?

If you're a basketball fan, a true one, I know what your answer is. And the thing is, that's the exact type of attitude we had when we first heard of COVID - it's over there, its no big deal, don't let it change your life.. and a lot of people died. So charging headfirst into it again is just as erroneous as someone coming in and saying we need to lock everything down again. And it sounds like you wouldn't be down for that, so why should we risk the lives of the immunocompromised, the elderly - people who have value whether or not you value them - because you're feeling like the risk is acceptable, even though you admit your only source of info is intelligent friends? Trying to reduce it to a matter of fear instead of one of specialized education?

[FNQ]

I'll redact and say this. How many months (years?) of data would you feel comfortable with before you're OK with 18-38 year old peak athletes competing without the fear of them being in any significant danger?

First off, your question is showing that you aren't picking up the issue here. Let me ask you before I answer this: is there a part of my original answer that doesnt make sense to you? Because I'm not sure why you'd ask this question if so.

Do you suppose we just test for life and continue to suspend all events when a multitude of symptomless people show traces of this virus? Again, we all have it and/or have had it exposed to us. All future variants will be exposed as well. Do you actually think this is something we can contain in the league or otherwise if they take a week off of games? Wake up?

Test for life is a ridiculous question, let's keep it grounded in reality
Who suggested suspending events?
Why did you need to create arguments that I'm not making to take a stance against my position, which was simply that charging headfirst into this like it doesn't matter is stupid, just like locking down in an overabundance of caution is stupid?

Smarten up? Keep up? If you want to have a conversation, let's have one. If you want to have a pissing contest, I'm down too but it'll just result in colored fonts and me being really snarky (probably not in that order)

[BoatsNZones]

I'll redact and say this. How many months (years?) of data would you feel comfortable with before you're OK with 18-38 year old peak athletes competing without the fear of them being in any significant danger?

First off, your question is showing that you aren't picking up the issue here. Let me ask you before I answer this: is there a part of my original answer that doesnt make sense to you? Because I'm not sure why you'd ask this question if so.

Do you suppose we just test for life and continue to suspend all events when a multitude of symptomless people show traces of this virus? Again, we all have it and/or have had it exposed to us. All future variants will be exposed as well. Do you actually think this is something we can contain in the league or otherwise if they take a week off of games? Wake up?

Test for life is a ridiculous question, let's keep it grounded in reality
Who suggested suspending events?
Why did you need to create arguments that I'm not making to take a stance against my position, which was simply that charging headfirst into this like it doesn't matter is stupid, just like locking down in an overabundance of caution is stupid?

Smarten up? Keep up? If you want to have a conversation, let's have one. If you want to have a pissing contest, I'm down too but it'll just result in colored fonts and me being really snarky

Lol. Ah I think I like you.

I'll settle for forward thinking solutions re the NBA. Are you aware that testing was not prevalent until these past few weeks, and that nearly every positive case is non symptomatic? It feels like an important starting point in this discussion.

[FNQ]

I'll redact and say this. How many months (years?) of data would you feel comfortable with before you're OK with 18-38 year old peak athletes competing without the fear of them being in any significant danger?

First off, your question is showing that you aren't picking up the issue here. Let me ask you before I answer this: is there a part of my original answer that doesnt make sense to you? Because I'm not sure why you'd ask this question if so.

Do you suppose we just test for life and continue to suspend all events when a multitude of symptomless people show traces of this virus? Again, we all have it and/or have had it exposed to us. All future variants will be exposed as well. Do you actually think this is something we can contain in the league or otherwise if they take a week off of games? Wake up?

Test for life is a ridiculous question, let's keep it grounded in reality
Who suggested suspending events?
Why did you need to create arguments that I'm not making to take a stance against my position, which was simply that charging headfirst into this like it doesn't matter is stupid, just like locking down in an overabundance of caution is stupid?

Smarten up? Keep up? If you want to have a conversation, let's have one. If you want to have a pissing contest, I'm down too but it'll just result in colored fonts and me being really snarky

Lol. Ah I think I like you.

I'll settle for forward thinking solutions re the NBA. Are you aware that testing was not prevalent until these past few weeks, and that nearly every positive case is non symptomatic? It feels like an important starting point in this discussion.

Yes. Not as prevalent, anyways. The increase was in response to Omicron, but I dont know the exact changes. I do know there was an increase. It's in line with the number of suggested and taken tests from the medical provider that retains us

Did you see in my initial post why its important to collect data on this newest, more virulent strain? How the many adaptations of strains - from the original Alpha, to the stronger Delta, to the weaker but more virulent Omicron, could be pointing us down a path where we're essentially training the virus to get stronger?

Just like a prospect - what if COVID puts it all together? If it the Omicron variant spreads fast and unfettered, it will have many, many more chances to mutate or evolve. If one of those strains combines the strength of Delta with the transmission of Omicron, we'd be in serious trouble. Wouldn't that possibility merit enough caution that we continue testing, try to minimize spread, while we see if we can identify patterns in the virus' evolution so that we can neutralize it? Or determine that Omicron is more likely an end-stage, dead-end version of the virus that ultimately could be, essentially, the next common cold/flu that doesn't require this special attention?

Just keep in mind, in 24 months we've seen at least 3 different prominent evolutions of the virus. There are likely countless evolutions that didn't take as well. But that's a pretty rapid evolution. It merits caution going forward - not shutting down the league. Not lockdowns. But should we isolate people who do contract it? Absolutely. At least until we can make some long-term determinations about the future of the Omicron variant, at minimum. Bonus points if we can track its evolutionary process well enough to get a step ahead of it

[BoatsNZones]

First off, your question is showing that you aren't picking up the issue here. Let me ask you before I answer this: is there a part of my original answer that doesnt make sense to you? Because I'm not sure why you'd ask this question if so.



Test for life is a ridiculous question, let's keep it grounded in reality
Who suggested suspending events?
Why did you need to create arguments that I'm not making to take a stance against my position, which was simply that charging headfirst into this like it doesn't matter is stupid, just like locking down in an overabundance of caution is stupid?

Smarten up? Keep up? If you want to have a conversation, let's have one. If you want to have a pissing contest, I'm down too but it'll just result in colored fonts and me being really snarky

Lol. Ah I think I like you.

I'll settle for forward thinking solutions re the NBA. Are you aware that testing was not prevalent until these past few weeks, and that nearly every positive case is non symptomatic? It feels like an important starting point in this discussion.

Yes. Not as prevalent, anyways. The increase was in response to Omicron, but I dont know the exact changes. I do know there was an increase. It's in line with the number of suggested and taken tests from the medical provider that retains us

Did you see in my initial post why its important to collect data on this newest, more virulent strain? How the many adaptations of strains - from the original Alpha, to the stronger Delta, to the weaker but more virulent Omicron, could be pointing us down a path where we're essentially training the virus to get stronger?

Just like a prospect - what if COVID puts it all together? If it the Omicron variant spreads fast and unfettered, it will have many, many more chances to mutate or evolve. If one of those strains combines the strength of Delta with the transmission of Omicron, we'd be in serious trouble. Wouldn't that possibility merit enough caution that we continue testing, try to minimize spread, while we see if we can identify patterns in the virus' evolution so that we can neutralize it? Or determine that Omicron is more likely an end-stage, dead-end version of the virus that ultimately could be, essentially, the next common cold/flu that doesn't require this special attention?

Just keep in mind, in 24 months we've seen at least 3 different prominent evolutions of the virus. There are likely countless evolutions that didn't take as well. But that's a pretty rapid evolution. It merits caution going forward - not shutting down the league. Not lockdowns. But should we isolate people who do contract it? Absolutely. At least until we can make some long-term determinations about the future of the Omicron variant, at minimum. Bonus points if we can track its evolutionary process well enough to get a step ahead of it

I have ran a wine laboratory, but I am far from a virologist and frankly don't think we can determine if this is any quicker of an evolution of the virus than is standard (we have not studied any this closely). We do know its strains have proven to be extremely dangerous to the elderly and immune compromised (especially the obese). We also know that the hospitalization and death rate have significantly waned in the past year relative to its peak.

I have to go to bed but I do think in general you're making fair points. I just have to question how long you want to continue to make them.

[FNQ]

I have ran a wine laboratory, but I am far from a virologist and frankly don't think we can determine if this is any quicker of an evolution of the virus than is standard (we have not studied any this closely). We do know its strains have proven to be extremely dangerous to the elderly and immune compromised (especially the obese). We also know that the hospitalization and death rate have significantly waned in the past year relative to its peak.

I have to go to bed but I do think in general you're making fair points. I just have to question how long you want to continue to make them.

to the bolded and underlined: we have, a lot. Although each generation has been limited by their technology, and we have the most advanced ways of looking at them, we have definitely studied viruses evolutions a lot - its a huge part of virology.

As for the facts above you presented - the obese, simply by virtue of being obese, are not much more at risk than an average individual. Its heart health that really determines danger levels, and while an obese person will likely have a less healthy heart, its far from a 1:1 ratio of them being in more danger than an average person.

Also re: hospitalization... we also know why those rates have declined. A large part of it is the vaccine's intended effect: individual protection. Another significant part of it is the secondary effect of the vaccine, which is to effectively disrupt the supply chain of the virus - less infected people with lesser viral loads = less opportunities for the virus to evolve/mutate. And that part is why the excessive testing is vital right now - not only to inform individuals that they are carrying the virus, but for us to get an idea of how prevalent it is, so we can define markers for case studies. And while its not relevant to the discussion, natural immunity of course is a part of this as well, but it is more focused on specific variants and lacks the versatility that a vaccine can have

Unfortunately the timeline is unknown right now - its way too early to even have an educated guess, unless there's an active virologist around here. But currently we're accumulating and cleaning data, which is usually the first and typically longest step. But we've been doing that for at least a month now (closer to 2) and studies have already begun at different intervals to determine if we're dealing with strictly one variant (Omicron) that's spiking, or similar variants. Now if there are similar variants instead of just one, that's probably better for our long-term study, because then we can determine an evolution/mutation marker, and figure out what the virus is doing to ensure its survival, and possibly close those roads for the future. At the same time we can also see what the average viral load is, which would go a long ways to determine how strong this strain is, and whether or not a booster vaccine is necessary, or even wise (as vaccinating for a relatively inert virus could restart its evolution to something more dangerous).

But since testing hardly disrupts people's lives other than going into various timelines of isolation based on vaccination status, I'd turn the same question to you when you wake up: I have to question what level of inconvenience is worth taking a stand on. Because right now I'd say that the response is fairly lax - no leagues are threatening to shut down, there are no rumblings of lockdowns or increased safety measures.. the only telltale sign right now is athletes catching it and not being able to play every game, which is pretty mild compared to what we went through for the past 20+ months

[ItsDanger]

I believe agencies/governments need to establish a target/objective for the public. Zero covid is not realistic.

[Cartuse]

This is really unfortunate and crappy. I made a thread before the season about how the breakthrough cases were going to shut down the NBA again possibly. I hope it doesn’t come down to this.

How can the NBA continue with zero covid though? Will they change the policy to symptomatic? Or just shut down? The NFL has had 75 positives in the last 2 days (I’m guessing Omicron?).

This is gonna suck.

My opinion: stop testing players who have no symptoms / who aren't sick. If the players association wants a bubble again they will have to give up significant salary. If they're willing to do that, do it. Otherwise, we're going to be in this for years so have to learn to adapt

This ultimately could be the solution, however suggesting it at this stage is wildly irresponsible.

We have some data that suggests this variant is more contagious but in doing so, the virus has weakened itself to the point where its not as lethal of a threat. Now as callous as some people are, they'll suggest diving headfirst into that and if people die, they die. Fortunately society has progressed beyond this, and there are plenty of places compiling data for the new variant right now, and my company is at the ready (already - kinda excited) to dive into the data once our client has decided they have enough clear data to go off of.

What's concerning here is the spike of people who should be otherwise healthy (IE young athletes) getting positive tests. Now its great that its not as lethal, supposedly, right now. But the obvious question should be - if the virus was able to transition to something that ensured it's livelihood, and since the natural progression with viruses is to reproduce and gain strength, we have to be wary of dismissing it as less important, because if it can retain its transmission levels while increasing its strength in the next variant, we've effectively trained it to be as lethal a pandemic as possible.

So testing should continue to occur, and health/safety protocols should remain in place in both the NFL and NBA until we get a better handle on it. All that said, the more likely outcome is the virus becoming more inert, and the fact that its more contagious will give our immune systems more data to work with in defending against this strain and other similar strains. But at this stage leaning heavily into one way (stop testing!) or another (complete lockdown!) is wildly irresponsible

Well my friend governments look to be eagerly leaning towards the latter, so what's it gonna be?

[Cartuse]

I believe agencies/governments need to establish a target/objective for the public. Zero covid is not realistic.

You mean like 2 weeks? Flatten the curve? Don't overcrowd hospitals? Wait for the vaccine? Wait for every single child in the planet to be vaccinated? Wait for... whatever new BS we can come up with?

Who cares about targets when the goalposts are alive and constantly running away from you? I think people keep obeying at this point mostly due to cognitive dissonance.

Conditions keep changing but the latent answer is always the same, shut everything down. We had a bubble, then we had regular testing, now we have a vaccinated league and a weak variant. And we're still having the same discussion. Isn't that odd?

[ItsDanger]

I believe agencies/governments need to establish a target/objective for the public. Zero covid is not realistic.

You mean like 2 weeks? Flatten the curve? Don't overcrowd hospitals? Wait for the vaccine? Wait for every single child in the planet to be vaccinated? Wait for... whatever new BS we can come up with?

Who cares about targets when the goalposts are alive and constantly running away from you? I think people keep obeying at this point mostly due to cognitive dissonance.

Conditions keep changing but the latent answer is always the same, shut everything down. We had a bubble, then we had regular testing, now we have a vaccinated league and a weak variant. And we're still having the same discussion. Isn't that odd?

Fair enough. In a couple of weeks, they should have enough data to alleviate their concerns and if its significantly milder, they need to adjust their strategy (if possible). I suggest copying the testing protocols from 2010 during H1N1. Its still on CDC website. Basically, test symptomatic.

[CM17]

I don't understand the idea of letting symptomfree player play. If they were in a bubble it makes sense. Of course they have the best physical condition to withstand the virus (even though Mo Bamba was out a long time and I remember one player telling he had the worst headaches of his lifetime.)
But they are constantly in contact with others and travel around. They can still infect others.
Maybe 10 days out is a little bit much. You could test until there is no more virus detectable and if that's after a few days then let them play.
Besides - doing sports while having a fresh infection might not be good.

[CM17]

What I don't understand is why the Bulls players weren't detected all at once (considering teams tested only once a week).
Do they test players only if they have symptoms or do you think the virus was spreading around the organisation for many days so some players got infected later than others?

[FNQ]

My opinion: stop testing players who have no symptoms / who aren't sick. If the players association wants a bubble again they will have to give up significant salary. If they're willing to do that, do it. Otherwise, we're going to be in this for years so have to learn to adapt

This ultimately could be the solution, however suggesting it at this stage is wildly irresponsible.

We have some data that suggests this variant is more contagious but in doing so, the virus has weakened itself to the point where its not as lethal of a threat. Now as callous as some people are, they'll suggest diving headfirst into that and if people die, they die. Fortunately society has progressed beyond this, and there are plenty of places compiling data for the new variant right now, and my company is at the ready (already - kinda excited) to dive into the data once our client has decided they have enough clear data to go off of.

What's concerning here is the spike of people who should be otherwise healthy (IE young athletes) getting positive tests. Now its great that its not as lethal, supposedly, right now. But the obvious question should be - if the virus was able to transition to something that ensured it's livelihood, and since the natural progression with viruses is to reproduce and gain strength, we have to be wary of dismissing it as less important, because if it can retain its transmission levels while increasing its strength in the next variant, we've effectively trained it to be as lethal a pandemic as possible.

So testing should continue to occur, and health/safety protocols should remain in place in both the NFL and NBA until we get a better handle on it. All that said, the more likely outcome is the virus becoming more inert, and the fact that its more contagious will give our immune systems more data to work with in defending against this strain and other similar strains. But at this stage leaning heavily into one way (stop testing!) or another (complete lockdown!) is wildly irresponsible

Well my friend governments look to be eagerly leaning towards the latter, so what's it gonna be?

Well yes, but actually, not even at all and I'd like to see why you think this.

Several European countries instilled unvaccinated lockdowns as soon as Omicron hit, and this was against the advice of the medical community as a majority. Not anywhere near the overwhelming numbers that are pro-mask, pro-vaccine, and pro-social distancing.. but still a clear majority, who have said the same refrain over and over: wait for scientific confirmation. Places like the Netherlands didn't wait for that, decided that new variant = new pandemic, and went LD in early November. Now they're stuck - they have to continue it until Omicron proves to be definitively weak, otherwise the government is admitting its own mistake, and we should all hold our breaths until that happens

Germany is instilling one (not sure if active yet) but a lot of that is based on Merkel leaving office, and not trusting their public to get vaccinated - they have one of the lowest rates.

But the majority of the world has made minor changes (instilling mask mandates, travel bans to high-risk countries,encouraging WFH, etc) and is playing this correctly: cautiously, but not needlessly disrupting personal lives until we know what our risk factor is. And the fact that the Netherlands going into lockdown - a point used by conservative talking heads across the world as evidence that the rest of the world will follow suit - has not resulted in such, really emphasizes that no, governments are not leaning towards complete lockdowns, and the great majority are even against unvaccinated lockdowns

[FNQ]

I believe agencies/governments need to establish a target/objective for the public. Zero covid is not realistic.

And no one is pushing for zero COVID. So congrats I guess? But the strawmen can stop any time now

[cpower]

i am expecting the league to be cancelled around Jan time given how rapidly the spread is happening right now.

[FNQ]

I believe agencies/governments need to establish a target/objective for the public. Zero covid is not realistic.

You mean like 2 weeks? Flatten the curve? Don't overcrowd hospitals? Wait for the vaccine? Wait for every single child in the planet to be vaccinated? Wait for... whatever new BS we can come up with?

Who cares about targets when the goalposts are alive and constantly running away from you? I think people keep obeying at this point mostly due to cognitive dissonance.

Conditions keep changing but the latent answer is always the same, shut everything down. We had a bubble, then we had regular testing, now we have a vaccinated league and a weak variant. And we're still having the same discussion. Isn't that odd?

Or disobeying for the same reason. Which is actually way more true. Dunning-Kreuger very much in effect.