2021 Draft Thread - Part II

[nate33]

:D

I know it’s still early, but it’s starting to look like Tommy completely whiffed this year’s draft.

Only difference b/w Ernie & Tommy is the type of players they went for. The results are decidedly mixed yet similar. Ernie erred on athleticism/skill and often would ignore basketball character & maturity. Tommy over compensated by focusing on maturity character & IQ over athletic ability. Avdija & Kispert especially are highly intelligent. I suspect Kispert will figure it out... maybe not this year tho. I saw him as a Joe Harris type who took a few seasons to find his niche.

Good point. A lot of those white, "pure shooter" SG/SF types (Harris, Reddick, McDermott, Korver) take a few years to adjust to the speed of the NBA game, but eventually find their niche as quality role players.

Wally Szczerbiak is one of the few guys that I recall being effective almost immediately.

[pcbothwel]

Per game, he's getting 1.3 assists and 1.8 to's. That kind of ratio usually indicates a low BBIQ, but he's only 20, so there's plenty of time for him to improve. Also doesn't get a lot of steals or blocks and gets less than 1 FT a game. But the 3 point shooting sounds very promising, and he's an NBA quality athlete.

Yeah. I hate asking people to "Look beyond the numbers", but we sorta have to with projecting 19/20 y/o players.
His passing numbers are bad, but when you watch the tape you see a guy that processes the floor pretty well. His first instinct is as a scorer, no doubt about it, but when he does pass the ball you see him find guys that someone with tunnel vision just simply wouldnt see.
I'll look for some tape...

Tbh, the tape on him from Ignite didn't impress me - other than his athleticism and jump shot, but again - he was 19 then and has plenty of time to improve - and having a 3 point shot and athleticism is a great start. Hopefully they coach him up well.

All I could find with a quick search...Skip to 4:38:

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He'll never be a passer, but he's not a black hole.
He actually reminds of Kuzma a little. Stretch big that can be a versatile defender and exploit mismatches. That said, he has more projection than Kuz due to his shooting, size, and athleticism.

[payitforward]

Who I'd have taken @31 -- if I'd had to make the pick (though I actually would have traded the pick for #s 34 & 36 & taken him down there along with an extra guy):

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Who I'd have taken @31 -- if I'd had to make the pick (though I actually would have traded the pick for #s 34 & 36 & taken him down there along with an extra guy):

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I know this player very well considering all that is going on in my world. We spent a lot of time looking at the championship team at Baylor and their two guards who are Davion Mitchell or worry should say and Gerald Butler Jerry Butler man is google mistranslate JA are ED like Jared the subway guy Butler Gerald Butler

I believe the word is cursory but I want to use here. A cursory glance of statistics and a comment made by one of the coaches was that McBride is as good as those two guys. Their NCAA statistics I mean. So yeah at 31 he would’ve been a no brainer

[NatP4]

Dosunmo has really shown well also. Posting a 58.5% TS in almost 500 minutes for Chicago.

You could’ve picked just about any of the guys chosen in the following 10 spots after the Todd pick and been in a much better situation. Herbert Jones looks like a quality role player. McBride&Dosunmo look like NBA guards, Robinson-Earl has shown some signs. Weiskamp, Butler, and Queta have all flashed in summer league.

Todd was just an awful pick and a total waste of the 22nd overall pick (and eventually the 31st pick)

[Ruzious]

Ayo D. wouldn’t be a bad pick.

Wow he is definitely a great pick As far as I am concerned. I hope he is the selection. Thanks DCZ

Good call by DCZ and CCJ - as well as Nat. Ayo might be the steal of the 2021 draft. Lately, he's been getting over 30 minutes a game, and the last 3 games, he's been real hot - making 23 of 30 shots - including 7 of 10 from 3, had 1 game with 10 assists and 1 with 10 rebounds. And I think he can become one of the best defensive guards in the NBA - he's got a great combo of size and length for a guard. Plus he's a fun energetic player to watch. Hard to understand why he slid all the way to 38.

[doclinkin]

This draft. Man. It's maddening. I like a quarter of the players on the list.

Most years a guy like Ayo Dosunmu would be in the top half of the first round. This year he is mocked down to the 2nd round. But I don't see anybody who thinks he won't be an effective and useful NBA player. It's just that he doesn't have the shimmer of a mystery player whose game is less familiar to everybody. Foreign or young or whomever.

But if you look at his advanced metrics, he got better in every category every year. Even while his usage increased. If you hear him talk, this is an instant veteran, he understands the game, has pretty much every shot he will need, sees the court well, can break down film in his head of things he has seen in other players games, at college or when he watches NBA players. Does he have skywalking athleticism? No. Nor insane physical measurements. But if you need a sixth man he can sub in 1-3 and play both ways competently against all but the speedy PG types. Rebounds large for a guard. Makes smart reads and cuts. Passes well. Can score at all three levels.

Right?

[Ruzious]

This draft. Man. It's maddening. I like a quarter of the players on the list.

Most years a guy like Ayo Dosunmu would be in the top half of the first round. This year he is mocked down to the 2nd round. But I don't see anybody who thinks he won't be an effective and useful NBA player. It's just that he doesn't have the shimmer of a mystery player whose game is less familiar to everybody. Foreign or young or whomever.

But if you look at his advanced metrics, he got better in every category every year. Even while his usage increased. If you hear him talk, this is an instant veteran, he understands the game, has pretty much every he will need, sees the court well, can break down film in his head of things he has seen in other players games, at college or when he watches NBA players. Does he have skywalking athleticism? No. Nor insane physical measurements. But if you need a sixth man he can sub in 1-3 and play both ways competently against all but the speedy PG types. Rebounds large for a guard. Makes smart reads and cuts. Passes well. Can score at all three levels.

It's upside and potential vs steady production. I have favorites in both columns.

The player Ayo reminds me of is pretty good - Jrue Holiday. He's got the same kind of strong build, excellent length with a 6'10 plus wingspan, penetrates real well in a deliberate manner, and even has the same questionable jump shot.

[FAH1223]

Seven Tiers from Franchise caliber to options on a Two-way deal.

Tier One - Da Franchise
1. C Evan Mobley
2. G Jalen Green
3. F Cade Cunningham

Tier Two - Multiple all-star
4. G Jalen Suggs

Tier Three - Solid to above average starter
5. G Josh Giddey
6. F Franz Wagner
7. G Sharife Cooper
8. G James Bouknight
9. G Jaden Springer
10. G Davion Mitchell

Tier Four - average starter to above average role player
11. F Jalen Johnson
12. C Isaiah Jackson
13. F Corey Kispert
14. G Chris Duarte
15. G Jared Butler
16. C Alperen Sengun
17. F F Kai Jones
18. G Keon Johnson
19. F Moses Moody
20. F Scottie Barnes
21. G Cameron Thomas
22. F Usman Garuba

Tier Five - potentially solid role player
23. G Ayo Dosunmu
24. F Trey Murphy III
25. F Ziaire Williams
26. G Tre Mann
27. G Brandon Boston Jr
28. G Miles McBride
29. F JT Thor
30. G Jason Preston
31. F Joe Wiescamp
32. C Day'Ron Sharpe
33. G Joel Ayayi
34. F Isaiah Livers
35. F Hebert Jones
36. F Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
37. G Quentin Grimes

Tier Six - Developmental types with flaws
38. G Joshua Primo
39. F Isaiah Todd
40. F Filip Petrusev
41. F Matthew Hurt
42. G Austin Reaves
43. C Neemias Queta
44. G Josh Christopher
45. G McKinley Wright IV
46. G Nah'Shon Hyland
47. F Kessler Edwards
48. G David Duke
49. C Charles Bassey
50. G David Johnson

Tier 7 - Two ways, G-league, overseas types

51. G Rokas Jokubaitis
52. F Vrenz Bleijenbergh
53. F Justin Champagnie
54. F Aaron Henry
55. F Sam Hauser
56. F Jericho Sims
57. G Daishen Nix
58. G Max Abmas
59. F Luka Garza
60. F Greg Brown
61. F Moses Wright
62. F Aaron Wiggins
63. F Trendon Watford

Masai proves his genius again!

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[NatP4]

I feel really good about how I evaluated this draft. I was low on Cunningham, Green, Kuminga, Williams, Mitchell, Moody, and Bouknight. Loved Mobley, Suggs(not looking good yet), Giddey, Wagner, and Barnes.

I was very on the record about Wagner and Giddey being better than Green&Kuminga, and that Barnes was going to be a stud and was the best on the board after Mobley/Suggs/Giddey/Wagner.

Also was ridiculously high on Daishen Nix even though he went undrafted. Now looking like a future superstar.

[payitforward]

Everybody loved Mobley!
Wagner hasn't been particularly good (not saying he won't be...).
Daishen Nix has played 260 crappy minutes in the NBA.

edit: Franz Wagner has been pretty good. Then again he's another guy everybody was pretty high on (not like Mobley, obviously...).

[NatP4]

Everybody loved Mobley!
Wagner hasn't been particularly good (not saying he won't be...).
Daishen Nix has played 260 crappy minutes in the NBA.

edit: Franz Wagner has been pretty good. Then again he's another guy everybody was pretty high on (not like Mobley, obviously...).

The board was split on Wagner. No one was talking about Nix at all. Maybe one or two posters liked Scottie Barnes.

Thank you for this post though, PIF. Brilliant stuff

[DCZards]

Yeah, very few of us were high on Barnes. Mostly because of questions about his shooting. Right now, the top 3 players from this draft look like Mobley, Barnes and Cunningham.

But I do expect Green to be right there with them once he gains more experience and learns to play more under control.

[nate33]

I feel really good about how I evaluated this draft. I was low on Cunningham, Green, Kuminga, Williams, Mitchell, Moody, and Bouknight. Loved Mobley, Suggs(not looking good yet), Giddey, Wagner, and Barnes.

I was very on the record about Wagner and Giddey being better than Green&Kuminga, and that Barnes was going to be a stud and was the best on the board after Mobley/Suggs/Giddey/Wagner.

Also was ridiculously high on Daishen Nix even though he went undrafted. Now looking like a future superstar.

I wouldn't break your hand patting yourself on the back just yet. Cunningham and Green both came on strong at the end of the season.

In the month of March, Cunningham posted 23 points, 6 boards and 7 assists per game on a TS% of .549 while being the primary focus of the opposition's defense. I think he still has a better than 50-50 shot to end up as the best player in this draft class. I certainly don't think Detroit is upset that they took him.

Jalen Green was really bad at first, but improved throughout the year. Over his last 9 games, he averaged 28.6 points on a .625 TS%. Nobody could stay in front of him.

And Kuminga is an interesting case because he played on a deep team who couldn't afford to sacrifice wins to develop him. Nevertheless, he showed some impressive skills and was a much better defender than expected. From February onward, he averaged 20 points and almost 7 boards per 36 on a TS% of .629 with a positive point differential.

In hindsight, I'd still take Cunningham, Green and Kuminga over Giddey. I'd take Cunningham and Green over Wagner too, though Wagner looks better than Kuminga. Overall, there were a lot of good players at the top of this draft. Pretty much everyone picking in the top 8 is happy except Orlando with Suggs.

[payitforward]

Everybody loved Mobley!
Wagner hasn't been particularly good (not saying he won't be...).
Daishen Nix has played 260 crappy minutes in the NBA.

edit: Franz Wagner has been pretty good. Then again he's another guy everybody was pretty high on (not like Mobley, obviously...).

The board was split on Wagner. No one was talking about Nix at all. Maybe one or two posters liked Scottie Barnes.

Thank you for this post though, PIF. Brilliant stuff

Now... don't lose it, son not trying to ding you -- & if you were down on Davlion that's a star on your report card.

Hey, I make plenty of mistakes -- I wouldn't have taken Maxey in '20. Feel like an idiot about it now. Peace!

[payitforward]

Then there's Sharife Cooper, whom Dat said, specifically, he would have taken w/ our #16 pick.

Or me -- I liked Miles McBride over Ayo Dosunmu.

Right now Aaron Wiggins (#55) & Jericho Sims (#58) look like they're among the top 15 guys out of the '21 draft....

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

Then there's Sharife Cooper, whom Dat said, specifically, he would have taken w/ our #16 pick.

Or me -- I liked Miles McBride over Ayo Dosunmu.

Right now Aaron Wiggins (#55) & Jericho Sims (#58) look like they're among the top 15 guys out of the '21 draft....

fwiw, the jury is still out on McBride imo, even 1-1 on Dosunmu - Thibs has used him so sparsely/badly it's really hard to make a proper judgement.

Otoh, Sims does seem like a strong rim-runner, no spacing center, who will have a place in the league as a bench player, at a lowly draft spot. But missing on him is nothing to be upset about. Mitch Robinson seems pretty clearly to me a better second rounder of a similar ilk.

[payitforward]

All perfectly sound, B8R... (where did you come up w/ this handle, man?!!? ) -- I was just pointing out was that we all make mistakes.

Dat, for example, is great on the draft. But... even the greatest hitter strikes out once in a while.

[Dat2U]

If Austin Reaves doesn't get drafted, I'd offer him a two-way deal without hesitation.

What NBA skills does he have - considering he's not a good 3 point shooter?

Excellent ballhandler, decision maker, slasher. Can operate effectively the P&R. Not an athlete but the advanced handle helps him get to the rim. He's not a guy I'm necessarily talking about drafting unless we had a pick in the 50s and others were off the board but as a free agent I think he's absolutely worth a look.

Was on the Austin Reaves train early!

[FAH1223]

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Those who wanted Sengun... ya'll were right