Pointgod wrote:FNQ wrote:infinite11285 wrote:
I am also skeptical, but such a revelation could change the calculus of mitigation planning around the league. I forsee additional testing coming, and even, perhaps, a controlled shutdown if things get too bad.
I don’t have any finite data to point to on that, because I’m not 100% sure what Omicron’s entry point is relative to the known entry point of Delta. So I’ll just say that it seems unlikely on its face, and that I think it’s wholly irresponsible for the CEO of a medical supply company to speculate on something that is not proven. If not immoral.
I can’t find the post to respond so I’ll respond to this one. Based on what you’ve seen in the data and research, what’s the possibility of omicron mutating into something both more infectious and fatal? I feel like that’s the nightmare scenario that would leave us completely ****, but from what I’ve read, it’s not in the virus’ evolutionary self interest.
It’s hard to quantify, it just is a possibility. And the virus isn’t intelligent, so it won’t be able to determine what it’s own self interests are.
So these three variants we know about - Alpha, Delta, Omicron - are 3 of an unknowable amount of attempts by the virus to survive. It could be out of 100, 1000, or more.. which is why charting it’s evolution is important. And safe to say most attempts it’s mostly fail.
But we’ve seen it get stronger/deadlier (Delta) and we’ve seen it get more transmissible (Omicron) so there are two variables in play that, if paired correctly, could be devastating. What are the odds of that? I’d say fairly unlikely, but the risk of ignoring it is immense and the only thing it’s impacting frequency of tests/more frequent social distancing or self-quarantines, which is a minimal thing long run.
Hard to get a lot of sports fans to agree but thats expected