Freighttrain wrote:og15 wrote:As it relates to Omicron, so far the news out of South Africa (which has enough data to have relevance vs UK for example) actually bodes well as their data is showing high spread, but low overall virulence, that is large drops in Hospitalization and death rates compared to previous waves.
Now, many countries are taking steps out of fear and or extra caution, but hopefully as more data comes in the result is that it's a milder strain which would be very good for everyone. How that affects the NBA'S decisions, I don't know. Infection rate is not the only important parameter, but it is a large factor.
Here is a useful interview to get a breakdown of the situation:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2021/12/how-mild-is-omicron-really.html
It's indeed a milder string, but it's 4 times more transmissible than Delta, which presents a moral question I wouldn't want to dive into.
Yea, what the data is trying to determine is whether it's low virulence surpasses it's high transmitability in populations where the majority have either experienced infection or have been vaccinated. South Africa's results so far are suggesting a 90% decrease in hospitalization and 2/3 in deaths (30 times reduction vs Delta, etc) and rates that are putting it at the same level as common respiratory illnesses. So 4 times as many infections with 30 times fewer deaths (if that holds in other countries) is a win for preservation of life and reduction of strain on health systems.
Part of what is hypothesized as contributing to both the high spread and lower virulence is that the strain might not spread well in the lungs and spreads better in the upper respiratory tract.
What that means for the NBA, I have no clue, but what that means for countries and communities could be a very good thing if it holds true. We basically have to wait and see though.
