2021-22 NBA MVP Discussion (Pt. 1)

[feyki]

To be fair, Steph probably has a better argument for being a bigger part of the Warriors #1 defense than Durant has for the Nets #5 defense.

This can't be serious .

[Ron Swanson]

Nets team defense is slightly better (105.9) when Durant is off the court. He's one of the greatest scorers/offensive players ever, but he's never been some consistently good impact guy on defense (posted a negative DRPM every season since 2016). Maybe someday people will get this false notion out of their heads that just because Durant is tall and blocks some shots here and there, doesn't mean that he's ever been anything besides a neutral-at-best defender? It's just a weird myth that continues to persist for some reason.

[Statlanta]

To be fair, Steph probably has a better argument for being a bigger part of the Warriors #1 defense than Durant has for the Nets #5 defense.

This can't be serious .

Steph and KD are about equal in defensive TPA. Durant has more defensive highlights on the season but I wouldn't doubt that Steph has given more effort on the end due to eye test and the load KD has on the offensive end with bad Harden and no Kyrie.

[feyki]

Nets team defense is slightly better (105.9) when Durant is off the court. He's one of the greatest scorers/offensive players ever, but he's never been some consistently good impact guy on defense (posted a negative DRPM every season since 2016). Maybe someday people will get this false notion out of their heads that just because Durant is tall and blocks some shots here and there, doesn't mean that he's ever been anything besides a neutral-at-best defender? It's just a weird myth that continues to persist for some reason.

This post has flaws almost on each word. Since 2016, he had been top defenders of the top defences in the league. 16 OKC were +3 defensive net rating against Spurs and Warriors combined and Durant was the best defender(best help defender by far) of his team. Then with the GSW he became a good rim protector(yes, was consistently almost 2 BPG player for years), he was the main rim protector and second best help defender and the second best defender of arguably the best defence in the league.

In the 2021 Playoffs, he outplayed Giannis defensively, in the series they faced. The DPOY.

Yea, but neutral defender and Curry better. It's just funny.

Also, one more note Durant's on court defensive rating also 105,9 with playing Mills,Harden,Harris line mostly, it's well above average and is it relate KD's defence that Nets have good defence when he sits ten minutes? Nonsense.

To be fair, Steph probably has a better argument for being a bigger part of the Warriors #1 defense than Durant has for the Nets #5 defense.

This can't be serious .

Steph and KD are about equal in defensive TPA. Durant has more defensive highlights on the season but I wouldn't doubt that Steph has given more effort on the end due to eye test and the load KD has on the offensive end with bad Harden and no Kyrie.

If it comes to load KD's coverage on the defence is almost doubles Curry. Durant contest 13 shots a game, while Curry's 8,5.

Do you guys aware of defensive tracking data? Or just know on/off metrics?

[eyeatoma]

Embiid needs to be on the poll. He's dragging this horrible team to the playoffs.

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[Colbinii]

Nets team defense is slightly better (105.9) when Durant is off the court. He's one of the greatest scorers/offensive players ever, but he's never been some consistently good impact guy on defense (posted a negative DRPM every season since 2016). Maybe someday people will get this false notion out of their heads that just because Durant is tall and blocks some shots here and there, doesn't mean that he's ever been anything besides a neutral-at-best defender? It's just a weird myth that continues to persist for some reason.

This post has flaws almost on each word.

Wrong--Ron Swanson possess a strong grammatical sense in his posts.

Since 2016, he had been top defenders of the top defences in the league. 16 OKC were +3 defensive net rating against Spurs and Warriors combined and Durant was the best defender(best help defender by far) of his team.

Durant the by far best help defender on a team with Prime Serge Ibaka?

Let's not forget about the teams by far best perimeter defender in Andre Roberson.

Then with the GSW he became a good rim protector(yes, was consistently almost 2 BPG player for years), he was the main rim protector and second best help defender and the second best defender of arguably the best defence in the league.

Andre Iguodala was the second best defender and Klay Thompson was consistently better up until his injury, often times the underrated point of attack defender.

Durant was a good weapon defensively who was used by Draymond like a puppet.

In the 2021 Playoffs, he outplayed Giannis defensively, in the series they faced. The DPOY.

Giannis wasn't the DPOY this past season.

[Ron Swanson]

In the 2021 Playoffs, he outplayed Giannis defensively, in the series they faced. The DPOY.

I legitimately laughed out loud at this. Any evidence whatsoever to back up this absurd claim?

[feyki]

Nets team defense is slightly better (105.9) when Durant is off the court. He's one of the greatest scorers/offensive players ever, but he's never been some consistently good impact guy on defense (posted a negative DRPM every season since 2016). Maybe someday people will get this false notion out of their heads that just because Durant is tall and blocks some shots here and there, doesn't mean that he's ever been anything besides a neutral-at-best defender? It's just a weird myth that continues to persist for some reason.

This post has flaws almost on each word.

Wrong--Ron Swanson possess a strong grammatical sense in his posts.

Since 2016, he had been top defenders of the top defences in the league. 16 OKC were +3 defensive net rating against Spurs and Warriors combined and Durant was the best defender(best help defender by far) of his team.

Durant the by far best help defender on a team with Prime Serge Ibaka?

Let's not forget about the teams by far best perimeter defender in Andre Roberson.

Then with the GSW he became a good rim protector(yes, was consistently almost 2 BPG player for years), he was the main rim protector and second best help defender and the second best defender of arguably the best defence in the league.

Andre Iguodala was the second best defender and Klay Thompson was consistently better up until his injury, often times the underrated point of attack defender.



Durant was a good weapon defensively who was used by Draymond like a puppet.

In the 2021 Playoffs, he outplayed Giannis defensively, in the series they faced. The DPOY.

Giannis wasn't the DPOY this past season.

You're giving 25 MPG players and Klay Thompson . Ibaka has a case though. But has to seperate rim protection and help defence.

In the 2021 Playoffs, he outplayed Giannis defensively, in the series they faced. The DPOY.

I legitimately laughed out loud at this. Any evidence whatsoever to back up this absurd claim?

So, you joined me.

Defensive tracking, individual defensive ratings, defensive box percentages, league/opponent relative and line-up mind on court defensive ratings; literally with every measurement we have.

[moderndarwin]

To be clear, I wasn’t saying that he’s the reason for the top 2 defense. I was just saying the Warriors are that and it’s a real fact. Being tops in defense comes from having all 9 of their main players plugged into the concept + lot of individual brilliance from Dray, Iggy, Gp2, Porter, Wiggins, Looney. Steph plays his part and is doing it extremely well this year without fouling for the most part (his biggest weakness).

What I am saying though is that his brilliance on offense and the style of play he has wears people and teams down. This level of exhaustion has an impact not measurable on the stat sheet that impacts other teams ability to play good offense. By the sheer fact that he makes their offense so good it means they’re often defending in a half court set versus backpedaling on a fast break or off a badly missed shot.

[Tennis19]

Curry December has been awful. its crazy to think at the end of the season Jokic can have a better avg then Curry in pts, rb, ast, stl, blks..... and better FG, 3pt%. ill prob lean towards Jokic, but def wouldnt be mad if curry or KD won...

[Jazz9]

Curry isn't even having that good of a season by his own standards
I'd give it KD or Jokic for now

[Ron Swanson]

"Literally every measurement we have" but I'm just gonna ignore some key ones and spew out buzz words without providing any data/numbers to support it lol. Nets defense by the numbers was atrocious (11.2 points per-100 worse) when Durant was on the court vs. off in the 2021 playoffs. Saying he outplayed Giannis offensively isn't controversial at all (it's true). Suggesting anybody in the playoffs, let alone Kevin Durant, outplayed Giannis "defensively" is straight up delusion.

[TwoStarz]

"Literally every measurement we have" but I'm just gonna ignore some key ones and spew out buzz words without providing any data/numbers to support it lol. Nets defense by the numbers was atrocious (11.2 points per-100 worse) when Durant was on the court vs. off in the 2021 playoffs. Saying he outplayed Giannis offensively isn't controversial at all (it's true). Suggesting anybody in the playoffs, let alone Kevin Durant, outplayed Giannis "defensively" is straight up delusion.

Some of these people are very enamored by defensive size than actual ability to read the game on that end. Like Draymond said, lot of viewers don't really have a clue what they are watching on defense.

A lot of defense is about positioning, timing and recognizing optimal shots the offense wants to take. Size helps, but its not be all end all. Lot of it is what's going on up top, in the head.

Giannis and KD are roughly the same height, but one is infinitely better at recognizing help situations and rotating on time to be able to use his size EFFECTIVELY. I know we both know who that one is.

To piggy back off that logic, KD is 7 feet so he is automatically a better defender than a 6'3 guard. There is just no way the latter could be better or equal on that end.

[Madhouse]

It's Jokic objectively but then again this doesn't exist in the media, so it will be Curry or KD even though it shouldn't.

[SpreeS]

"Literally every measurement we have" but I'm just gonna ignore some key ones and spew out buzz words without providing any data/numbers to support it lol. Nets defense by the numbers was atrocious (11.2 points per-100 worse) when Durant was on the court vs. off in the 2021 playoffs. Saying he outplayed Giannis offensively isn't controversial at all (it's true). Suggesting anybody in the playoffs, let alone Kevin Durant, outplayed Giannis "defensively" is straight up delusion.

Some of these people are very enamored by defensive size than actual ability to read the game on that end. Like Draymond said, lot of viewers don't really have a clue what they are watching on defense.

A lot of defense is about positioning, timing and recognizing optimal shots the offense wants to take. Size helps, but its not be all end all. Lot of it is what's going on up top, in the head.

Giannis and KD are roughly the same height, but one is infinitely better at recognizing help situations and rotating on time to be able to use his size EFFECTIVELY. I know we both know who that one is.

To piggy back off that logic, KD is 7 feet so he is automatically a better defender than a 6'3 guard. There is just no way the latter could be better or equal on that end.

Not very smart to compare PG and PF impact on defence. The most time PF defence is more important, but problem is that every team has a PF. So PF better defence over PG, doesn’t reflect on winning. Also C or PF average defence hurts more than guards avg defence.

[TwoStarz]

"Literally every measurement we have" but I'm just gonna ignore some key ones and spew out buzz words without providing any data/numbers to support it lol. Nets defense by the numbers was atrocious (11.2 points per-100 worse) when Durant was on the court vs. off in the 2021 playoffs. Saying he outplayed Giannis offensively isn't controversial at all (it's true). Suggesting anybody in the playoffs, let alone Kevin Durant, outplayed Giannis "defensively" is straight up delusion.

Some of these people are very enamored by defensive size than actual ability to read the game on that end. Like Draymond said, lot of viewers don't really have a clue what they are watching on defense.

A lot of defense is about positioning, timing and recognizing optimal shots the offense wants to take. Size helps, but its not be all end all. Lot of it is what's going on up top, in the head.

Giannis and KD are roughly the same height, but one is infinitely better at recognizing help situations and rotating on time to be able to use his size EFFECTIVELY. I know we both know who that one is.

To piggy back off that logic, KD is 7 feet so he is automatically a better defender than a 6'3 guard. There is just no way the latter could be better or equal on that end.

Not very smart to compare PG and PF impact on defence. The most time PF defence is more important, but problem is that every team has a PF. So PF better defence over PG, doesn’t reflect on winning. Also C or PF average defence hurts more than guards avg defence.

Uh, thats not what the point was.

The point was, its silly to think just cause a guy is very tall he is good on defense (and like you said, actually helping relative to position) and just cause a guy in smaller in size, he is automatically a poor defender, or as someone put it, "Pilon"

[scrabbarista]

The mistake many make in evaluating KD is that they confuse all the things a player can affect with all the things he actually does affect.

And they confuse how easily a player does what he does with what it is he actually does.

Much of KD's rep comes down to how he looks when he plays. He's long and tall and smooth and a great shooter and can get a shot in almost any situation, so people (Bill Simmons, e.g.) act like he's peak MJ.

I'm not trying to hate on him. He's definitely top 20 all-time, likely top 15 (if not already, then eventually), with a real shot at top 10 if his Nets reach their potential.

But he's still overrated by some. He's never been the best player in the league (though he's often been very close). Right now I'd rank him fourth-best, behind three guys who have proven to be franchise cornerstones (Jokic less so, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's sincere when he says his role model is Tim Duncan, as his actions, play, and attitude have been congruent with that statement).

There are four players with a realistic shot at MVP this season, and KD is rightfully one of them. I'd say Jokic should be the clear leader were the season over today, but with more than half of the season left, it's really hard to say any of these four guys has much of a leg up on the others going forward.

[Doctor MJ]

The mistake many make in evaluating KD that they confuse all the things a player can affect with all the things he actually does affect.

And they confuse how easily a player does what he does with what it is he actually does.

Much of KD's rep comes down to how he looks when he plays. He's long and tall and smooth and a great shooter and can get a shot in almost any situation, so people (Bill Simmons, e.g.) act like he's peak MJ.

I'm not trying to hate on him. He's definitely top 20 all-time, likely top 15 (if not already, then eventually), with a real shot at top 10 if his Nets reach their potential.

But he's still overrated by some. He's never been the best player in the league (though he's often been very close). Right now I'd rank him fourth-best, behind three guys who have proven to be franchise cornerstones (Jokic less so, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he's sincere when he says his role model is Tim Duncan, as his actions, play, and attitude have been congruent with that statement).

There are four players with a realistic shot at MVP this season, and KD is rightfully one of them. I'd say Jokic should be the clear leader were the season over today, but with more than half of the season left, it's really hard to say any of these four guys has much of a leg up on the others going forward.

Good points. In my own words:

People have a natural tendency to focus on individualistic brilliance both because a) it's easy to see, and b) crunch-time offense tends to be more individualistic in response to the dangers of passing against amped-up defense, and in the aftermath of Jordan's run, that really gave the basketball world permission to move away from the team-oriented tropes that dominated the sport prior to that point.

Where I try to draw a clean line is this:

I'm not saying that Durant can't be the best player to have against the very best competition...but I think it's clear that in terms of value-add in a context where adding team value dominates (which most definitely includes the regular season), Durant's never been that guy to the same extent as some others.

Some of it is that he's doesn't have the same BBIQ that other guys have - think the great passers here - but also some of it is a subtle distinction between his approach to play compared to someone like Curry. While you can certainly argue that Curry has the BBIQ edge over Durant, neither guy is a real-time savant. In the end, possibly the biggest difference between the two on this front is that Curry's been willing to adapt his approach to the game in a way Durant chafed at.

Anyway, all this to say: I think Durant's candidacy for MVP is overrated compared to what it deserves to be in a literal "most value-added" statement, but it gets tricky because the "MVP" is the established award for giving the award to the guy most worthy of singling-out as "the best".

[yoyoboy]

To what degree is Jokic going to have to clearly outplay the rest of the competition to even get himself in the discussion? It’s crazy how much voter fatigue there is for him when he’s only won it once, as if Giannis, Curry, and LeBron didn’t all win b2b recently. And it’s crazy how much people are willing to just pretend that your 14 other teammates on the roster have no impact on record when we all know that’s not the case. Curry isn’t playing significantly better than he did last year yet the Warriors are miles better. LeBron isn’t really any different of a player than he was last year yet the Lakers are much worse. Too many people just seem to be entirely incapable of of taking context into account when having these discussions and it’s frustrating.

[Doctor MJ]

To what degree is Jokic going to have to clearly outplay the rest of the competition to even get himself in the discussion? It’s crazy how much voter fatigue there is for him when he’s only won it once, as if Giannis, Curry, and LeBron didn’t all win b2b recently. And it’s crazy how much people are willing to just pretend that your 14 other teammates on the roster have no impact on record when we all know that’s not the case. Curry isn’t playing significantly better than he did last year yet the Warriors are miles better. LeBron isn’t really any different of a player than he was last year yet the Lakers are much worse. Too many people just seem to be entirely incapable of of taking context into account when having these discussions and it’s frustrating.

I think he's already in the discussion, but to win out, he'll probably need there to not be a strong candidate on a top team.

Re: voter fatigue. I wouldn't call it fatigue, I'd call a kind of "rounding to align with perceived career accomplishment". Jokic winning that MVP last year without actually breaking through to be the clear cut best player in the playoffs was always going to cause a narrative headwind that would make it harder for him to win another title.

I'd say Giannis had a similar thing going previously. He was still able to win that 2nd MVP in spite of the headwind (with the help of a huge W-L record), but last season I think people would have done pretty much anything to prevent him from winning a 3rd. Now that he's won the title, he's got a bit of a narrative tailwind boosting him, as do KD & Curry.

As always when speaking like this I'm not trying to say that "this is as it should be", only sharing my analysis of how the basketball world thinks.