Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real

[fleet]

He missed another chance to hit Kmet in the end zone on MOnday, on a short pass. Threw the ball behind him. Not a hard throw.

Kmet is a bust. Possibly the worst hands in the league.[/quote

Just another reason Pace has to go. So many blown picks in the first 2 rounds since he came on board. He sees things in players that no other GM sees, then gives away assets to move up to draft players...essentially bidding against himself. He's given away too many draft assets in trades, leaving us vulnerable from a talent and a salary cap perspective. Other than Mooney has he drafted a single play maker at WR or TE ? Pace has gambled too often with limited success. If the McCaskey clan has any credibility left they will fire Pace and Nagy the Monday morning after the Bears last game. Enough already.

The draft is a crap shoot. Historically in draft day trades, the team that trades down invariably wins the trade the majority of the time. Picking up picks is the way to win crap shoots, and the Bears have it all upside down. Keep doing that long enough, and the air comes out of the balloon slowly but surely.

[micromonkey]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

[jsleesl28]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

Something all these guys have in common. They want it more than the guy next to him. super competitive. borderline cocky, but they are all leader of men.

QB evaluation is way too hard. lol

I still think if Tebow had someone like Greg Roman, who can adjust to the strength of his qb, Tebow could've had pretty successful career.

[patryk7754]

Albert breer brought up a hypothetical for pace to save his job and that would be trading for Sean Payton. On the surface you want to disregard it but it makes a lot of sense if the saints and Payton part ways this off-season.

No QB. And they’re projected to have negative 60m in cap. I’m guessing they’ll have to get rid of a lot of their top players. Payton might not want to deal not only with a rebuild but the financial situation the saints are in.

At the least it’ll be an interesting story to watch I think

[fleet]

Payton made about 10 million dollars last season. I want an established guy too. Just don’t see the Bears in that neighborhood. Unless this is a total one man operation from the field to the FO. Wouldn’t be totally surprised to see them sign a guy for 5/35 though. Mildly surprised, because they are in such a mess, they might get crazy.

[Susan]

Payton made about 10 million dollars last season. I want an established guy too. Just don’t see the Bears in that neighborhood. Unless this is a total one man operation from the field to the FO. Wouldn’t be totally surprised to see them sign a guy for 5/35 though. Mildly surprised, because they are in such a mess, they might get crazy.

It's a good plan. Proven elite head coach who will get the most out of Justin Fields.

There's been rumblings of Jeff Ireland (Saints assistant GM).

Many may not know but Ireland is the grandson of Jim Parmer. The former Eagles running back became a prominent NFL scout after his playing days. Most of those 35 years were spent with the Bears. He eventually became their college scouting director and a vital component during the construction of the 1985 Super Bowl championship roster. Ireland spent a lot of time with Parmer in those days, learning about the game. Even becoming a ballboy for the team in the 1980s.

“HE WAS MY INSPIRATION. I SPENT (SEVEN) SUMMERS WITH HIM, OFTEN SITTING IN FILM ROOMS WITH A 16 MILLIMETER PROJECTOR JUST WATCHING FOOTBALL, LOOKING AT PLAYERS. THAT’S HOW I FELL IN LOVE WITH SCOUTING.”

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/notable-gm-candidate-views-chicago-bears-as-dream-job/

That would be ten million times better than Ted and Georgie making the pick. Ireland gets a promotion, we get an elite HC with Chicago ties and a great offensive mind.

[Jeffster81]

From rumors around the net, Ireland REALLY wants the Bears job. But let's not forget that Ireland once asked Dex Bryant if his mom was a prostitute.

[dougthonus]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

Probably half the all time great QBs are the #1 pick. The NBA draft is not so dissimilar from that. If a QB isn't worthy of a #1 pick pretty obviously, then there's a really good chance he's a bust and the QBs that do early but aren't worthy of a #1 pick often have high risk factors on them and the guess is a lot more up in the air and intangibles / unpredictables come more into play.

NBA draft is similar, for every LeBron at #1 (obvious superstar) there are two drafts with no clear #1 pick where the #1 has no more value really than the #4 or #5 except your opportunity to pick 1st among a group of similar players, but not a lot of grounded information as to why one will do better.

[Jcool0]

From rumors around the net, Ireland REALLY wants the Bears job. But let's not forget that Ireland once asked Dex Bryant if his mom was a prostitute.

[micromonkey]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

Probably half the all time great QBs are the #1 pick. The NBA draft is not so dissimilar from that. If a QB isn't worthy of a #1 pick pretty obviously, then there's a really good chance he's a bust and the QBs that do early but aren't worthy of a #1 pick often have high risk factors on them and the guess is a lot more up in the air and intangibles / unpredictables come more into play.

NBA draft is similar, for every LeBron at #1 (obvious superstar) there are two drafts with no clear #1 pick where the #1 has no more value really than the #4 or #5 except your opportunity to pick 1st among a group of similar players, but not a lot of grounded information as to why one will do better.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career.htm

Of the top 10 in yards (TDs produces a similar list) only the Manning Bros, Elway (at 13) are the only #1 overall. Even Marino/Rivers were outside the top 10 (Big Ben 11)

If you move farther out you will add in #1s in Palmer/Testaverde (who was not efficient just prolific).
So top 25 you have 5 #1 overalls Add in McNabb as he was #2. 6/25. Roughly 1/5

Even recently Mahomes was #10, Mitch #2
More recently Herbert (who I will almost guarantee will be better than Burrow and Tua) was 3rd QB taken behind
And I'm more willing to put my money on Mac Jones vs. Lawrence having a better career.

I really think there is a specific mental aspect not captured in testing that is sometimes difficult to figure out.
I also still contend the environment is huge for some guys. I think its actually rare a P Manning comes in and he likely does well no matter what team he goes too--some guys are like that. Some guys need to be brought along -Steve Young being a high profile example IMO.

[fleet]

College QBs have not faced NFL defenses and before, and it is pretty difficult to predict how any of them will perform under the pressure DCs can place on their decisions and throws with the speed of defenses and game plans

[patryk7754]

I wouldn't be mad a just a complete transfer from the saints to the bears. FO and Coaching staff has arguably been the best the past 5ish years.

[dougthonus]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

Probably half the all time great QBs are the #1 pick. The NBA draft is not so dissimilar from that. If a QB isn't worthy of a #1 pick pretty obviously, then there's a really good chance he's a bust and the QBs that do early but aren't worthy of a #1 pick often have high risk factors on them and the guess is a lot more up in the air and intangibles / unpredictables come more into play.

NBA draft is similar, for every LeBron at #1 (obvious superstar) there are two drafts with no clear #1 pick where the #1 has no more value really than the #4 or #5 except your opportunity to pick 1st among a group of similar players, but not a lot of grounded information as to why one will do better.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career.htm

Of the top 10 in yards (TDs produces a similar list) only the Manning Bros, Elway (at 13) are the only #1 overall. Even Marino/Rivers were outside the top 10 (Big Ben 11)

If you move farther out you will add in #1s in Palmer/Testaverde (who was not efficient just prolific).
So top 25 you have 5 #1 overalls Add in McNabb as he was #2. 6/25. Roughly 1/5

Even recently Mahomes was #10, Mitch #2
More recently Herbert (who I will almost guarantee will be better than Burrow and Tua) was 3rd QB taken behind
And I'm more willing to put my money on Mac Jones vs. Lawrence having a better career.

I really think there is a specific mental aspect not captured in testing that is sometimes difficult to figure out.
I also still contend the environment is huge for some guys. I think its actually rare a P Manning comes in and he likely does well no matter what team he goes too--some guys are like that. Some guys need to be brought along -Steve Young being a high profile example IMO.

I was looking this up before once, and I misremembered in my head and I think I was thinking of 1st rounders vs non 1st rounders, but even if you look at top 10 vs non top 10, it's about half and half.

I think a huge part of the difficulty is an "ok" QB has zero value. If you aren't top 10 at your position in the NFL then you're really not all that useful. If you compare that to say the 30th best defensive end in the NFL still is probably a pretty valuable player, same with WR or Linebacker or tackle (defensive or offensive) or whatever.

Only elite QBs are useful and most aren't going to rise to that. There are probably 5-7 viable QB legit QB prospects drafted every year, and a truly elite QB probably lasts 10-15 years (some longer) so that means on average, you're having probably 1 top QB leave the game every year and thus out of the 5-7, probably only 1 (typically will make it).

[Dresden]

I think a huge part of the difficulty is an "ok" QB has zero value. If you aren't top 10 at your position in the NFL then you're really not all that useful. If you compare that to say the 30th best defensive end in the NFL still is probably a pretty valuable player, same with WR or Linebacker or tackle (defensive or offensive) or whatever.

Only elite QBs are useful and most aren't going to rise to that. There are probably 5-7 viable QB legit QB prospects drafted every year, and a truly elite QB probably lasts 10-15 years (some longer) so that means on average, you're having probably 1 top QB leave the game every year and thus out of the 5-7, probably only 1 (typically will make it).

Who would you say are the elite QB's right now? Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Murray, Prescott, Russ Wilson.

The next tier I would put Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Mathew Stafford and Matt Ryan.


If you compare that looking to be contending this year, you find Tampa (Brady), Cardinals (Murray), Packers (Rodgers), KC (Mahomes), Dallas (Prescott) all on that list. Only Seattle, with Wilson, are not in the running.

Teams in the running who do NOT have an elite QB, but one in the next tier: Buffalo (Allen), LAR (Stafford)- and you could argue that either of those guys should be considered elite.

Teams in the running with a QB not in either top category: TN.

I'm leaving a few teams like CIN, BAL, PIT, IND, but I don't think anyone expects them to reach the SB.

[Dresden]

From an article on "6 Bears Players Who Deserve More PT in the final 3 Games:

WR Jakeem Grant


The Bears traded for wide receiver Jakeem Grant back in October — one of Ryan Pace’s most successful in-season trades — and he’s been an impactful contributor on special teams, garnering a Pro Bowl nod as a return specialist. Now, it’s time to see what more he can contribute on offense. We got a glimpse of what his speed can bring to this Chicago offense, as evidenced by his 46-yard touchdown against the Packers in Week 14. Grant is currently in concussion protocol, so the hope is he’ll be able to play at least the final two games of the season. With Grant set to become a free agent this offseason, if he can be impactful on offense, on top of his special teams contributions, the Bears would be wise to sign him to a contract extension.

https://sports.yahoo.com/6-bears-deserve-more-playing-164512482.html

[Lexluthor]

I think a huge part of the difficulty is an "ok" QB has zero value. If you aren't top 10 at your position in the NFL then you're really not all that useful. If you compare that to say the 30th best defensive end in the NFL still is probably a pretty valuable player, same with WR or Linebacker or tackle (defensive or offensive) or whatever.

Only elite QBs are useful and most aren't going to rise to that. There are probably 5-7 viable QB legit QB prospects drafted every year, and a truly elite QB probably lasts 10-15 years (some longer) so that means on average, you're having probably 1 top QB leave the game every year and thus out of the 5-7, probably only 1 (typically will make it).

Who would you say are the elite QB's right now? Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Murray, Prescott, Russ Wilson.

The next tier I would put Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Mathew Stafford and Matt Ryan.


If you compare that looking to be contending this year, you find Tampa (Brady), Cardinals (Murray), Packers (Rodgers), KC (Mahomes), Dallas (Prescott) all on that list. Only Seattle, with Wilson, are not in the running.

Teams in the running who do NOT have an elite QB, but one in the next tier: Buffalo (Allen), LAR (Stafford)- and you could argue that either of those guys should be considered elite.

Teams in the running with a QB not in either top category: TN.

I'm leaving a few teams like CIN, BAL, PIT, IND, but I don't think anyone expects them to reach the SB.

Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are elite ? What have they proved in the playoffs ?Rodgers is heading towards Drew Brees / Steve Young territory. Only Brady and Mahomes are the real elite quarterback ?

[Dresden]

I think a huge part of the difficulty is an "ok" QB has zero value. If you aren't top 10 at your position in the NFL then you're really not all that useful. If you compare that to say the 30th best defensive end in the NFL still is probably a pretty valuable player, same with WR or Linebacker or tackle (defensive or offensive) or whatever.

Only elite QBs are useful and most aren't going to rise to that. There are probably 5-7 viable QB legit QB prospects drafted every year, and a truly elite QB probably lasts 10-15 years (some longer) so that means on average, you're having probably 1 top QB leave the game every year and thus out of the 5-7, probably only 1 (typically will make it).

Who would you say are the elite QB's right now? Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Murray, Prescott, Russ Wilson.

The next tier I would put Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Mathew Stafford and Matt Ryan.


If you compare that looking to be contending this year, you find Tampa (Brady), Cardinals (Murray), Packers (Rodgers), KC (Mahomes), Dallas (Prescott) all on that list. Only Seattle, with Wilson, are not in the running.

Teams in the running who do NOT have an elite QB, but one in the next tier: Buffalo (Allen), LAR (Stafford)- and you could argue that either of those guys should be considered elite.

Teams in the running with a QB not in either top category: TN.

I'm leaving a few teams like CIN, BAL, PIT, IND, but I don't think anyone expects them to reach the SB.

Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are elite ? What have they proved in the playoffs ?Rodgers is heading towards Drew Brees / Steve Young territory. Only Brady and Mahomes are the real elite quarterback ?

Dallas' offense is leading the league in points this year (or they had been last time I checked), and Prescott is a big part of that. Murray, yes, I'd say he's elite even though he hasn't won anything yet. His numbers and how well he moves the ball put him in that category in my opinion. Wasn't Rodgers the MVP last year? And he's the betting favorite to win it again. You don't think he's elite?

[Lexluthor]

Who would you say are the elite QB's right now? Rodgers, Brady, Mahomes, Murray, Prescott, Russ Wilson.

The next tier I would put Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Mathew Stafford and Matt Ryan.


If you compare that looking to be contending this year, you find Tampa (Brady), Cardinals (Murray), Packers (Rodgers), KC (Mahomes), Dallas (Prescott) all on that list. Only Seattle, with Wilson, are not in the running.

Teams in the running who do NOT have an elite QB, but one in the next tier: Buffalo (Allen), LAR (Stafford)- and you could argue that either of those guys should be considered elite.

Teams in the running with a QB not in either top category: TN.

I'm leaving a few teams like CIN, BAL, PIT, IND, but I don't think anyone expects them to reach the SB.

Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are elite ? What have they proved in the playoffs ?Rodgers is heading towards Drew Brees / Steve Young territory. Only Brady and Mahomes are the real elite quarterback ?

Dallas' offense is leading the league in points this year (or they had been last time I checked), and Prescott is a big part of that. Murray, yes, I'd say he's elite even though he hasn't won anything yet. His numbers and how well he moves the ball put him in that category in my opinion. Wasn't Rodgers the MVP last year? And he's the betting favorite to win it again. You don't think he's elite?

The packers had home field advantage last year and where did that lead them ? The fact is the Packers have been underwhelming in the playoffs the past a couple of years. There is no shame to lose Tom Brady . But Losing to Jimmy G and the 49ers was a bad lost. Dak has looked pretty bad the past a couple of weeks . And the cowboys have been known as a accident waiting to happen in the playoffs for a longe time

[Jcool0]

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[dice]

What is strange is how hard it is to evaluate QBs in the draft. For every Manning/Elway (first/top overall who pans out) you have busts.
And later round HOF all time greats

Brady 6th
Favre 2nd round
Warner UNDRAFTED
Rodgers 1st round 24th - SO glad we got Cedric Benson that year-I knew his style would never translate and we already had Thomas Jones
Montana end of 3rd round, behind Steve Fuller
Fouts 3rd round
Brees 2nd round

Probably half the all time great QBs are the #1 pick.

elway and manning are the only two elite QBs taken first overall. then there are hall of famers who got there based on team success (bradshaw, aikman, eli). andrew luck was probably better than all of them. and kyler's on a good trajectory

after the top half of the first round, the QB hit rate falls off a cliff