Pat Williams Discussion - Out 4-6 Mo (late Feb to late April)

[WindyCityBorn]

I expect Pat to play this season especially since we seem prime for a deep playoff run. I say he is back by early April.

[MrSparkle]

Pat played 5 games this season and got crucified.

9% usage on an all-new team; 67% TS.

Average handles and first step… but the combo of silky shooting and size give him potential.

I still see plenty advantage in just staying course with his development.

IMO, people are already forgetting about his ridiculously low energy level. Not helping, not cutting, etc. He was even passing up open 3's at times. The difference between him and Javonte is stark playing the same position.

He really looks Tony Snell-ish.

. . . and yeah, Tony Snell had a 9.5PER 71%ts last year for Atlanta and still, barely even a blip on the FA radar.

I'm not forgetting. But he did play 5 games coming off a severe ankle sprain, and apparently his conditioning was a problem.

Read on Twitter

And at 19yo he was doing things Snell has never done into his 30y of age.

Read on Twitter

Pat was starting and outproducing Snell's best season (1st year in MIL, age 25, 4 years in league). They're differently sized guys; Tony had some awareness issues that were uniquely bad. Tony never got props after match-ups from Lebron, Kawhi and other NBA stars. Snell's statistically worse in almost every category, and he doesn't have the size or skills to guard superstar forwards.

I just didn't get the vibe that Donovan was giving Pat entitlement minutes all along. Continually seemed like one of the more competent guys on the roster (granted a bad one, last year).

I dunno, we've had this debate about Niko and other Bulls rookies too. You've been right a lot; Bulls rookies always get overrated. OTOH odds of becoming great player are obviously extremely low for almost any rookie, so it makes sense most flame out. There are what, 1-2 special players and 3-5 fringe stars in every draft at best? Most of them show it early (Mitchell, Morant), some came out of nowhere (Jimmy, Vuc, Draymond, Pascal), some flashed a lot but still took a while (Giannis, Zach, Lowry, Kawhi). Some show good signs their first months and become duds (Wendell, Lauri, Tyrus).

Obviously Pat has shown a lot of mediocrity, but he's had his coach's trust to play pretty good minutes on a fringe 500 (and penciled starter on this year's much better team) as a very raw prospect. And the highlights are there; he's made special plays that Snell couldn't pull off (although he did have that one Pippen dunk). If there's a 10% chance he taps into that on a more regular basis in 2 years or so, I'd rather play those odds than trading him for Larry Nance Jr. or PJ Washington. I also just think there's more there than his PER and bum stats suggest. And the low energy does look bad, but that doesn't mean his game is destined to be bad. Slow and methodical never hurt DeRozan.

The rebounding was the biggest flag for me. But when Billy got on him, there were better results. I just don't know what to make of his 5 games this season. He seemed out of shape and noticeably slower in his first step. He also probably added weight to his frame to prep for a full season guarding PFs and switch C, only to get a bad sprain and stop cardio for 6 weeks.

Anyway, I wouldn't hesitate trading him for the right piece (like some kind of Keldon Spurs trade). Most of the 1-on-1 or blockbusters I've seen make no sense to me. You just can't liquidate all the moving parts and consolidate into 4 max/near-max contracts (actually 5, including Lonzo). We're not the 16 Warriors to lock ourselves into that kind of roster; you have zero trade options after getting Pascal, Grant, Barnes, etc. besides moving Vuc at his lowest value for some downgrade.

[sco]

Pat played 5 games this season and got crucified.

9% usage on an all-new team; 67% TS.

Average handles and first step… but the combo of silky shooting and size give him potential.

I still see plenty advantage in just staying course with his development.

IMO, people are already forgetting about his ridiculously low energy level. Not helping, not cutting, etc. He was even passing up open 3's at times. The difference between him and Javonte is stark playing the same position.

He really looks Tony Snell-ish.

. . . and yeah, Tony Snell had a 9.5PER 71%ts last year for Atlanta and still, barely even a blip on the FA radar.

I'm not forgetting. But he did play 5 games coming off a severe ankle sprain, and apparently his conditioning was a problem.

Read on Twitter

And at 19yo he was doing things Snell has never done into his 30y of age.

Read on Twitter

Pat was starting and outproducing Snell's best season (1st year in MIL, age 25, 4 years in league). They're differently sized guys; Tony had some awareness issues that were uniquely bad. Tony never got props after match-ups from Lebron, Kawhi and other NBA stars. Snell's statistically worse in almost every category, and he doesn't have the size or skills to guard superstar forwards.

I just didn't get the vibe that Donovan was giving Pat entitlement minutes all along. Continually seemed like one of the more competent guys on the roster (granted a bad one, last year).

I dunno, we've had this debate about Niko and other Bulls rookies too. You've been right a lot; Bulls rookies always get overrated. OTOH odds of becoming great player are obviously extremely low for almost any rookie, so it makes sense most flame out. There are what, 1-2 special players and 3-5 fringe stars in every draft at best? Most of them show it early (Mitchell, Morant), some came out of nowhere (Jimmy, Vuc, Draymond, Pascal), some flashed a lot but still took a while (Giannis, Zach, Lowry, Kawhi). Some show good signs their first months and become duds (Wendell, Lauri, Tyrus).

Obviously Pat has shown a lot of mediocrity, but he's had his coach's trust to play pretty good minutes on a fringe 500 (and penciled starter on this year's much better team) as a very raw prospect. And the highlights are there; he's made special plays that Snell couldn't pull off (although he did have that one Pippen dunk). If there's a 10% chance he taps into that on a more regular basis in 2 years or so, I'd rather play those odds than trading him for Larry Nance Jr. or PJ Washington. I also just think there's more there than his PER and bum stats suggest. And the low energy does look bad, but that doesn't mean his game is destined to be bad. Slow and methodical never hurt DeRozan.

The rebounding was the biggest flag for me. But when Billy got on him, there were better results. I just don't know what to make of his 5 games this season. He seemed out of shape and noticeably slower in his first step. He also probably added weight to his frame to prep for a full season guarding PFs and switch C, only to get a bad sprain and stop cardio for 6 weeks.

Anyway, I wouldn't hesitate trading him for the right piece (like some kind of Keldon Spurs trade). Most of the 1-on-1 or blockbusters I've seen make no sense to me. You just can't liquidate all the moving parts and consolidate into 4 max/near-max contracts (actually 5, including Lonzo). We're not the 16 Warriors to lock ourselves into that kind of roster; you have zero trade options after getting Pascal, Grant, Barnes, etc. besides moving Vuc at his lowest value for some downgrade.

I think part of the problem is, what we want from Pat and what we need from our starting PF are different. Pat, IMO, has been "groomed" to be a playmaking 2nd scoring option. Honestly, it's similar to the role that DD is playing. A lot of the hype around Pat was his all around offensive skills, coupled with his strength. The reality of Pat is a guy who is uncomfortable with the ball in his hands for long or a guy who wants to take the shot, hence the Snell comparisons.

Now in terms of what we need from the PF position is a 5th option scorer who has 3pt range and can defend the tougher forward on the opposing team. Javante and DJJ are both defensive specialists, and are hence, better defenders than Pat (who is average, IMO, but has upside with experience). That said, there just aren't many shots available for the PF position (Javante is averaging less than 5 shots a game), but neither Green nor DJJ can shoot the 3, which Pat can do pretty well.

I think the best role for Pat is to come off the bench as our 7th man, and give us the scoring lift we need from that group. A line-up of Caruso, White, Ayo, Pat, Bradley or Caruso, White, Pat, DJJ, Bradley might be good enough to take Zach's and DD's minutes down to around 30 toward the end of the season, when they will benefit from a lighter load.

[MGB8]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

[sco]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

While I am optimistic on Pat's future, I really disagree with the notion that some random NBA player had equal or worse stats than some rookie as some sort of reasonable comparable for that rookie achieving the same level of success. What that doesn't bring to light is that there are 100+ guys who had better stats than that rookie who were out of the NBA 3 years later.

[Pax for Prez]

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[Chi town]

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I’m assuming this is with his left wrist cast on?

If that cast is off already he’s not human.

Need video proof!

[kulaz3000]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

With how long he was expected to be off, I wouldn't have blamed him for just working out and being away from the team a little, but he was right on the bench and travelling with the team as soon as he could. And from the sounds of it, he is working out and remaining as active as possible.

Yes, he may never become the player that we all hope he would have been, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't become at the very least a very solid role player who has a very long career in this league. I just hope that he puts it all together while with the Bulls.

[sco]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

With how long he was expected to be off, I wouldn't have blamed him for just working out and being away from the team a little, but he was right on the bench and travelling with the team as soon as he could. And from the sounds of it, he is working out and remaining as active as possible.

Yes, he may never become the player that we all hope he would have been, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't become at the very least a very solid role player who has a very long career in this league. I just hope that he puts it all together while with the Bulls.

I do think Pat is a worker, but hoisting up shots in the gym doesn't really count. I'm sure he has been frustrated because of limitations and bored out of his mind. If you told me that he's been running marathons and doing cardio until they send him home, I'd be wowed.

[TheFinishSniper]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

Tony Snell was worker too. Still is, but he used to, too.

[DuckIII]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

Tony Snell was worker too. Still is, but he used to, too.

Mitch Hedberg would be proud.

[ikeziskash]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

The problem isn't the numbers. He failed the eye test. Low motor. Low effort while everyone around him was putting up high effort. Are you really going to dispute this? He looks like Eddy Curry out there...has the physical tools but has not shown the desire or heart.

[ikeziskash]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

With how long he was expected to be off, I wouldn't have blamed him for just working out and being away from the team a little, but he was right on the bench and travelling with the team as soon as he could. And from the sounds of it, he is working out and remaining as active as possible.

Yes, he may never become the player that we all hope he would have been, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't become at the very least a very solid role player who has a very long career in this league. I just hope that he puts it all together while with the Bulls.

How about he work on ways to toughen himself up and motivate himself to hustle? That's what he needs.

[coldfish]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

The problem isn't the numbers. He failed the eye test. Low motor. Low effort while everyone around him was putting up high effort. Are you really going to dispute this? He looks like Eddy Curry out there...has the physical tools but has not shown the desire or heart.

I disagree. Pat's numbers are pretty bad. Here are his career per36:
11.7p 5.8r 1.7a 10.4PER

People will pipe in and bring up a guy who had bad numbers early on and went on to play well. That's the exception, not the rule.

Here is Scottie Barnes, who looks much more like a future quality player at age 20:
15.6p 8.3r 3.4a 17.5PER

Pat Williams still has that new lottery pick smell and can fetch something in trade. IMO, they should do it because if he continues like this, he is going to be out of the league in a few years. The fact that the Bulls have Derozan playing like he is at his age just doubles the reason why you want to trade Pat now.

[sco]

Seriously, this kid is such a worker.

With how long he was expected to be off, I wouldn't have blamed him for just working out and being away from the team a little, but he was right on the bench and travelling with the team as soon as he could. And from the sounds of it, he is working out and remaining as active as possible.

Yes, he may never become the player that we all hope he would have been, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't become at the very least a very solid role player who has a very long career in this league. I just hope that he puts it all together while with the Bulls.

How about he work on ways to toughen himself up and motivate himself to hustle? That's what he needs.

I'm glad you brought up the "motor" topic. I think it goes to what his role is vs. what he is. Let's forget about the unfortunate Kawhi comparisons for a moment, it's like the Lauri/Dirk ones.

What has Pat shown so far (recognizing he was a young rookie)?
- He has a very good jumper
- He is a very good passer
- He is a good finisher at the rim
- He is strong with a good vertical
- He has an average handle
- He is an average defender
- He is a below average rebounder
- He has a pass-first mentality

What is the need from our starting PF?
- Efficient shooting when open
- Defend opponents best front-court player
- Be opportunistic on both ends rebounding/steals/blocks

I think that last point is the rub with Pat. Hustle guys like Javante and DJJ are thriving in that role because they are both defensive-specialists, and given that our starting PF is "best" filled by a guy who doesn't need the ball to contribute (because it is hard to find shots with our other 4 starters being who they are). While I like Pat's BBIQ, especially on offense, his defense still lacks some recognition, which IMO makes him look slow. Also, his most annoying optic is that he seems to be jogging in transition, and I think it's because he doesn't want the ball on offense (lack of confidence? deference to vets?) and isn't 100% where to go on defense.

It's hard to tell which of these is going to change as he gets more comfortable with the system and new teammates. This season is likely not going to give him a little more understanding of his teammates, but not time to improve his game (he'll be lucky to get back to where he was to start the season). Still I'd be happy with him getting 12-18 MPG in a bench role because I think even that Pat is more useful than TBJ and Bradley.

[ChettheJet]

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

Hell there are people who are prolific around here who have no patience with anybody. They want to trade Vuc now, before the season even started there were posts that some people who don't have the guts to admit to that said they should be dealing DeRozan as soon as the rules allowed. Last year prior to the draft how many times did some people propose trades with Zach for draft picks and guys that aren't even on rosters now so when people want to give up on PW, and it's really asinine when they start throwing stats out from his rookie year. They never mention what the winning percentage of that team was and they are blind to the number of players that got shipped out at the deadline and over the off season, some of which aren't even on NBA rosters now. Any smart phone expert who thinks a 19 year old rookie should have lit the F'n league on fire under those circumstances won't get that I'm making fun of their idiocy.

[MGB8]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

The problem isn't the numbers. He failed the eye test. Low motor. Low effort while everyone around him was putting up high effort. Are you really going to dispute this? He looks like Eddy Curry out there...has the physical tools but has not shown the desire or heart.

Yes, I dispute it. You, and the rest who are making the same sort of arguments, are wrong. Like flat out, embarrassingly, wrong. Like the folks who mocked the idea of Jimmy Butler becoming even 75% of Deng; like the folks who scoffed at the notion of adding DeMar DeRozan last year.

Pat doesn't look anything like Eddy Curry out there, and the comparison is ridiculous; Eddy wasn't a worker and didn't love basketball. Pat clearly is and does.

He's not an energizer bunny Javon Green / Shaq Harrison / David Nwaba out there.... but he's not Eddy Curry, either. A better comparison in terms of court demeanor would be young Harrison Barnes. And that is 100% based both on the eye test and the confirming stats.

The impatience of some folks with young players... again, it's the same type of foolishness would would have led to writing off Jimmy Butler, OG Anunoby, etc.

[MGB8]

Mind you, I'm not writing the same type of things about Coby White, nor was I writing the same sorts of things about WCJr or Markannen.

In those cases, you (1) had a significantly larger sample size and (2) there were obvious results issues (bigs abusing WCJr, Lauri's various issues - interior defense, issues scoring over smaller players, lack of creation, Coby issues finishing, lack of natural vision, high and not good enough handle, defensive limitations).

With Pat, there's a lot of speculation over lack of on-court offensive aggression - where there are explaining factors given age, prior role (college backup), who he's playing with, etc.

Pat is not necessarily going to be a superstar. But I am 100% confident that he's going to be a very solid NBA level player, more than likely at least start caliber, and very possibly high-end to borderline allstar, a la guys like Barnes, OG, etc. Not as much upside as Barnes, btw, who could realistically be a top 20, even top 10 player... but that's not the measuring stick.

[MGB8]

In his new season, OG Anunoby averaged 12.5 and 5 per36 , playing over 20 minutes per game. Didn’t do much more his next season, either - basically increasing efficiency to where Pat is now but raw numbers not much better.

Folks are way too impatient with Pat.

While I am optimistic on Pat's future, I really disagree with the notion that some random NBA player had equal or worse stats than some rookie as some sort of reasonable comparable for that rookie achieving the same level of success. What that doesn't bring to light is that there are 100+ guys who had better stats than that rookie who were out of the NBA 3 years later.

The post ended with "Folks are way too impatient with Pat."

The point was NOT to say that Pat is OG (although they are a reasonable comp and type of player - i.e., Pat's upside potential). The point was to note that the same ridiculous hot-takes could have been made about OG Anunoby - oh, he hasn't shown much, he's garbage - trade him for whatever. Maybe it's because OG wasn't a #4 overall pick - but it's not Pat's fault that he was player #4 in a 3 player top-of-draft.

People need to re-frame their expectations - instead of thinking about Pat as a #4 overall, think about him as a project pick who came into the league at 19 years old after one year in college, where he was not even a starter, but showed high level upside.

[fleet]

I had held out hope for a long time throughout his struggles, but the position switch did not yield better rebounding. That shook me. It used to look a little like the Bulls put him in a role that didn’t ask him to crash the boards. But then he was literally put into a role to crash the boards and nothing happened. He's a good kid and a good worker, but his instincts are questionable. One might guess that the same genetic thing that prevents him from going after rebounds is the same thing that stops him from going after shots and demanding the ball. He can defend better because it doesn’t require a decision to defend. You just do it because there is nothing else to do. The other parts of the game do require some different areas of the brain to fire up.