GT #32: Bullets @ NY Knicks 7:30 PM (NBCSW/980 AM)

[FAH1223]

a) he's shooting less not more, so how is he being "the absolute go to iso guy?"
b) his assists are up 30% from last year!

I suspect the concern people have isn't Beal's passing, but his ball dominance and usage rate. I haven't watched enough Wiz games to know if that's valid.

What I can see from that raw data supports your position. According to nba.com touch stats, among guards playing at least 26 min/game, Beal ranks...

• 26th in touches/game
• 43rd in seconds/touch
• 41st in dribbles/touch
• 10th out of 60 for points/touch (50+ touches/game)

Beal looks like a very good offensive player who falls short of being truly elite. Which is par for the course of his career. But he doesn't have the statistical profile of a black hole, not by a long shot.

By comparison, Spencer is lower on total touches, but is 8th in the NBA among starting guards for the time he holds the ball when he gets it. From the stats it looks like Dimwiddie is the ball-stopper, not Beal.

Interesting, and a bit unexpected. However, guard touch stats are a bit misleading because they include all the PGs, just about all of which would have more touches, time per touch, and dribbles per touch.

Debating if we're better or worse without Beal leaves out the obvious. Who would replace him? Right now we're so weak at G, that we're replacing him with mediocre players. A trade assumes we'd end up with someone good.

Watching the games supports the obvious:
The ball does not move with Beal playing. Maybe it's not his fault, but it can't be denied. It would be interesting to see the number of passes, with and without Beal in the game.
Beal is not a max player, or even close. If the alternative is paying him 30+M a year vs a trade, then trade is the only option that makes sense. We're not going anywhere tying up that much money.

He’s already making the max for the 7-9 year veteran designation!!!

All he’s doing re-signing is getting the max for 10+ years of service!

Ted has been paying Brad a max for years now!!!

[payitforward]

...Watching the games supports the obvious:
The ball does not move with Beal playing. Maybe it's not his fault, but it can't be denied....

I just don't understand why you would repeat this once the data is before your eyes.

Brad gets a ton of assists. Dinwiddie leads the team, but Brad is only about 11% behind him in assists per 40 minutes on the floor. Moreover, Brad gets 26% more assists than Neto, who is next best.

There is one thing wrong with Brad's game this year, one thing only & nothing else: his 3 pt %. That's it. End of story. If he was shooting the 3 at his career average he'd be having as good a year this year as last. The only other issue is that the refs aren't putting him on the line as much as usual. True for a lot of players this year.

...Beal is not a max player. If the alternative is paying him 30+M a year vs a trade, then trade is the only option that makes sense. We're not going anywhere tying up that much money.

This is a different matter entirely. We're paying him close to $34m this year. We started the year 10-3.

Over the last several seasons, Bradley Beal has been a better player overall than Devin Booker, who makes about the same amount of $$. But, Phoenix doesn't have that "not going anywhere" problem.

That's because Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton & Mikal Bridges are all tremendous, & Cam Johnson has become a really good player too, & JaVale & Kaminsky are terrific off the bench, not to mention that Jae Crowder & Landry Shamet are better than our role players.

As currently constructed the Wizards are not a title contender. If that's what "not going anywhere" means, then you are certainly right. But, that's not about Brad in particular .

For one thing we're still living the legacy of Ernie -- thus, the $26m we are paying Kuzma & KCP isn't exactly getting the level of play Phoenix gets from Ayton & Bridges at less than half the money. But, those 2 guys are part of the process of getting out from under John Wall via Russ.

It's not all that, of course. We're flushing $16m/year down the drain for Bertans (a decision you & everyone else but me applauded!).

IOW, Brad's not why we aren't "going anywhere." Then again, giving him a supermax would be a major mistake.