The 2022 NBA Draft Thread

[drsd]

If the Magic finishes as the worst team in the NBA, there is a 47.86% chance Orlando drafts 5th.
If the Magic finishes second, then it is 47.86% to finish 5th or 6th.

At this point, we should accept that the Magic is most probable to get either the 5th or 6th selection in the coming draft.

*Odds are literally higher than Magic will pick 1-4 than 5-6*

drsd: “brace yourself for the 5th or 6th pick!”

C’mon now.

Yes it is (marginally) more likely than not that the the worst team will not draft 5th.
And still, 5 is the overall most likely pick for the worst team.


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[drsd]

Drafting BPA + highest upside

The problem is that these are not always the same thing.

For example, let's compare Suggs and F-Wagner. Suggs was BPA and was selected at #5. F-Wagner has highest upside (physicality measurements and defined NBA skill). So he went #8 as BPA trumps highest upside to the Magic management.

[Xatticus]

Drafting BPA + highest upside

The problem is that these are not always the same thing.

For example, let's compare Suggs and F-Wagner. Suggs was BPA and was selected at #5. F-Wagner has highest upside (physicality measurements and defined NBA skill). So he went #8 as BPA trumps highest upside to the Magic management.

Wagner wasn't a high upside pick. He was a safe pick. Wagner's ceiling still isn't all that high, but it is exceptionally unlikely that he ends up as something less than a valuable rotation player on a good team.

[drsd]

Wagner wasn't a high upside pick. He was a safe pick. Wagner's ceiling still isn't all that high, but it is exceptionally unlikely that he ends up as something less than a valuable rotation player on a good team.

For me this is all about F-Wagner's defensive growth. If he can evolve in to a top-10 forward defender, than a 15/7 styling on offence still makes him a very, very good player in the NBA.

We will see.

Getting to the topic of the 2022 draft, having F-Wagner start next to Isaac and Carter, the reality that Orlando is more likely than not to come away wit a SG in the draft, the log-jam between Futz, Suggs and Anthony will only grow if Jaden Hardy, Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, MarJon Beauchamp, Blake Wesley, Bryce McGowens or Max Christie becomes a future stating SG in Orlando.


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[Xatticus]

Wagner wasn't a high upside pick. He was a safe pick. Wagner's ceiling still isn't all that high, but it is exceptionally unlikely that he ends up as something less than a valuable rotation player on a good team.

For me this is all about F-Wagner's defensive growth. If he can evolve in to a top-10 forward defender, than a 15/7 styling on offence still makes him a very, very good player in the NBA.

We will see.

Getting to the topic of the 2022 draft, having F-Wagner start next to Isaac and Carter, the reality that Orlando is more likely than not to come away wit a SG in the draft, the log-jam between Futz, Suggs and Anthony will only grow if Jaden Hardy, Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, MarJon Beauchamp, Blake Wesley, Bryce McGowens or Max Christie becomes a future stating SG in Orlando.


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Don't misunderstand. I really like Wagner. He just isn't a high upside guy for me.

It will come down to draft position. If we end up at the top of the draft, I don't know how you avoid adding to the frontcourt. The only backcourt guy I'd consider in the top 5 right now is Ivey. Perhaps Mathurin gets there. Our log jam is at the wings, but some of that can be uncluttered just by dumping Ross and/or Harris. We need a facilitator, but I don't see anything in the draft.

Right now, I'm hoping for Holmgren or Jabari Smith.

[basketballRob]

Kendall Brown looks really good to me.

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[drsd]

Don't misunderstand. I really like Wagner. He just isn't a high upside guy for me.

And-1

Those who see F-Wagner as "the next Nowitzki", I think I am more hopeful for "the next Toni Kukoč". A long career ending on a 12/4/5 stat line. The perfect 4th-best player on a great team. That is his ceiling for me.

It will come down to draft position. If we end up at the top of the draft, I don't know how you avoid adding to the frontcourt. The only backcourt guy I'd consider in the top 5 right now is Ivey. Perhaps Mathurin gets there. Our log jam is at the wings, but some of that can be uncluttered just by dumping Ross and/or Harris. We need a facilitator, but I don't see anything in the draft.

Lat year, the one guy that was a perfect compliment to the roster was Jalen Green, and as Jaden Ivey is kind of in a similar upside-mold, I kind of agree. Having an explosive 2-guard could mean the Magic has an alpha-scorer.

For me it is Bennedict Mathurin. His ability to move without the ball fits the Magic's lead-guards. Not that this is his upside, but I can see a Klay Thompson style of game from Mathurin, and that really fits what the Magic has in their other starters.

What I am very happy about is in the 5 or 6 draft slot, the Magic is almost certain to be choosing between wing players. That is this team's need.

Right now, I'm hoping for Holmgren or Jabari Smith.

If the Magic get lottery luck, then I love BPA at that position, and I have Jabari Smith fractionally over Paolo Banchero.



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[tiderulz]

Don't misunderstand. I really like Wagner. He just isn't a high upside guy for me.

And-1

Those who see F-Wagner as "the next Nowitzki", I think I am more hopeful for "the next Toni Kukoč". A long career ending on a 12/4/5 stat line. The perfect 4th-best player on a great team. That is his ceiling for me.
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not calling him the next Nowitzki, but i definitely can see a better a higher ceiling than that.

[fendilim]

Drafting BPA + highest upside

The problem is that these are not always the same thing.

For example, let's compare Suggs and F-Wagner. Suggs was BPA and was selected at #5. F-Wagner has highest upside (physicality measurements and defined NBA skill). So he went #8 as BPA trumps highest upside to the Magic management.

Wagner wasn't a high upside pick. He was a safe pick. Wagner's ceiling still isn't all that high, but it is exceptionally unlikely that he ends up as something less than a valuable rotation player on a good team.

There really isnt anyone else, imo, that was picked after him that has shown as much potential as he has shown right now.

[drsd]

not calling him the next Nowitzki, but i definitely can see a better a higher ceiling than that.

Are you stating that you think F-Wagner's upside is more than Toni Kukoč?


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[Skin]

Wagner is a really nice player to cheer for because he does unexpected things. But he's not a future all-star caliber player, so his upside is capped.

Happy to have him, but I'm not looking past superior draft prospects because we have Franz.

[basketballRob]

I think with Wagner's speed and length he'll end up many allstar teams. Can't wait until we get Fultz back so he can throw the ball down court to Wagner. He's hard to stop in the open court.

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[MasterGMer]

I think very highly of Franz. And I think he could become a All Star type player. He is like a younger version of Gordon Hayward but more athletic.

btw I voted for him on Twitter. Hope yall post the tweet and vote also.

Even though he is not going to make it, but i think it is pretty cool

[tiderulz]

not calling him the next Nowitzki, but i definitely can see a better a higher ceiling than that.

Are you stating that you think F-Wagner's upside is more than Toni Kukoč?


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i see him able to become more than a 4th option and 12/4/5 stat line overall

[tiderulz]

Wagner is a really nice player to cheer for because he does unexpected things. But he's not a future all-star caliber player, so his upside is capped.

Happy to have him, but I'm not looking past superior draft prospects because we have Franz.

you have no idea. Im sure no one said Jimmy Butler was going to be an all-star his rookie year. same with Wallace, Billups, etc. anyone trying to lay claim they know the ceiling of a player this quickly just makes them look dumb

[Bensational]

I think with Wagner's speed and length he'll end up many allstar teams. Can't wait until we get Fultz back so he can throw the ball down court to Wagner. He's hard to stop in the open court.

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That goat video is gold. Well played.

[drsd]

not calling him the next Nowitzki, but i definitely can see a better a higher ceiling than that.

Are you stating that you think F-Wagner's upside is more than Toni Kukoč?


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i see him able to become more than a 4th option and 12/4/5 stat line overall

After Jordan left the Bulls, Kukoč was a 18/3/5 player. I would be very happy if i) F-Wagner comes that kind of player and ii) sacrifices stats so the Orlando wins a Three-peat.


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[pepe1991]

Toni Kukoć was Euro wonderkid. Guy was so talented that at age of 17 he lead former team Jugoplastika to back to back Euroleague championships. Him and Rada were basically in puberty-boys who were dominating league despite team having almost no money or any realistic chance of adding serious "outside "talent . Their raise to top of Euroleague is basically movie type scenario.

In his third year in Europe, he changed team, and again won Euroleague, and again won MVP.
On all of that, he won two silver Olympic medals.

Goes without saying that he would have fat stats if he played on lesser teams, but playing for Bulls allowed him to win 3 titles there.

That is Igoudala debate. What makes Igoudala special ? Fact he averaged 20-5-5 on mediocre .500 teams or fact he had no issues taking much smaller role later and eventually winning finals MVP as "small" contributor ? Would Igoudala's career be viewed different if he took Iverson/Melo/Francis/ Marbury rout, never contend for title but padded 20+ ppg in his prime?
Or him winning 3 titles as lesser contributor cemented him in HOF?

Now what execlly will Franz be? I don't know. But if he becomes our Bulls- Toni Kukoć i would be amazed. Much more amazed than him being next Rudy Gay or whatever on bad team, putting up 20 points, getting max and asking for trade in year 6.

[Skybox]

Kukoc was the nicest, most humble NBA player I've ever interacted with. He was finishing his career with MIL (I think) and I had my young, basketball-obsessed son with me at a game. We got there VERY early to watch warmups as we were seated in the very low rows, so we had access to walk all around the court. Toni was out there, stretching mostly, before a game he didn't even suit up for. I don't know if there were any other fans even around...We sat at the press table and Toni came over and plopped his leg on the table (allegedly to stretch) right in front of my son- acting like he didn't even see him. My son was so thrilled, trying not to bust into a huge smile. Finally, Toni laughed and shook our hands and introduced himself to my son, correctly assuming he was not known to him, he said "I played with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and some of the greats". I corrected him to my son, explaining that Toni is one of the greats too...just a really cool, comfortable guy.

[Skybox]

Kukoc was the nicest, most humble NBA player I've ever interacted with. He was finishing his career with MIL (I think) and I had my young, basketball-obsessed son with me at a game. We got there VERY early to watch warmups as we were seated in the very low rows, so we had access to walk all around the court. Toni was out there, stretching mostly, before a game he didn't even suit up for. I don't know if there were any other fans even around...We sat at the press table and Toni came over and plopped his leg on the table (allegedly to stretch) right in front of my son- acting like he didn't even see him. My son was so thrilled, trying not to bust into a huge smile. Finally, Toni laughed and shook our hands and introduced himself to my son, correctly assuming he was not known to him, he said "I played with Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and some of the greats". I corrected him to my son, explaining that Toni is one of the greats too...just a really cool, comfortable guy.

On the Wagner comparison, Toni is actually pretty good. Neither one LOOKS super quick or athletic, but both could get where they wanted with the ball and seem to use their length very naturally...to outreach defenders, etc. Both have that layup style where they just get shots off that look closer to blocks than they are (due to their comfort with their length). Toni made the right passes and the big shots, just like Franz. Hayward's more powerful and athletic than both, IMO...but Toni and Franz have that deceptive ranginess.