JBSouthpaw wrote:This isn't anything more than a wonder:
Do you we would have gotten to this point if J.I. was healthy from the start of the year? Fultz & MCW too.
I'm feeling like sitting those guys for as long as they've sat has really paid off. They would have for sure taken minutes away from Franz.
Of course not. This is the nature of the NBA. It's the nature of development. It's all about opportunity. This applies to pretty much everything.
DeMar DeRozan is an example. By force of will, he has always been the dominant offensive presence on every roster he has been a part of and he has continued to develop for this reason. He is a better version of himself than he has ever been before and he has continued to develop because he has been afforded the opportunities to do so. The same can be said of LaVine. Patrick Williams, on the other hand, doesn't have much of a chance at this point. Aside from the injury, he is so buried in the offensive scheme that he is destined to be a defensive role player.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0057753The short version of that article is that the NHL has an over-representation of players born in the first quarter of the year (Jan, Feb, Mar) because the age cut off at youth levels is Jan. 1. This essentially means that being born in the first quarter of the year means you are older than your peers and are more mature. This advantage in maturity means a relative advantage in size and a relative advantage in skill. These perceived differences lead to more future opportunities and thus more players born in those months ultimately reach the NHL.
A player's outcome is heavily influenced by the situations they find themselves in. If you look at Nikola Vucevic, for example, there are many outcomes where he ends up back in Europe after a brief stint in the NBA. He was fortunate enough to land on a roster bereft of talent and he forced his way into a large role. He continued to develop. He is now a serviceable NBA big. Unfortunately, our organization paid him as though he were something far more.
That's great for Nikola Vucevic. It wasn't so great for the Orlando Magic. For a franchise, you have to pick the right players to develop. If you devote your resources to developing marginal talents, you end up with a marginal roster that has no chance of competing for anything meaningful.
I think Wagner is a terrific candidate for development. He isn't really blessed with a lot of talent, though there is certainly some there. What's between his ears is what gives him the potential to be a very good player. He understands that the goal is to win the game and that puts him ahead of the vast majority of prospects. Cole Anthony? I'd flip him in a heartbeat.
"Xatticus has always been, in my humble opinion best poster here. Should write articles or something."
-pepe1991