Dresden wrote:The US broke it's single day record for new Covid cases yesterday at 265K new cases. As the 14 day moving average for new cases stands at +125%, however, the deaths are actually at -5%. I realize deaths will lag behind new cases, but the difference there is startling, and shows that Omicron is not claiming as many lives. That, plus the fact that many people who are catching Omicron have been double or triple vaxxed is also helping.
We will see how it changes with Omicron, the sad news is that since around Sept 1st (about 4 full months now) we're averaging a mortality rate that would be around 500k deaths a year from COVID which is a tick below Heart Disease and Cancer (600k or so each) but more than triple the next leading causes.
According to my quick google search, Omicron is now about 56% of cases, given that it just got here a month ago, odds are that it will be nearly 100% of cases shortly (much like Delta took over) and if that happens we'll find out in maybe 3 months what the mortality rate looks like.
My hope is that it falls, because at its current level, I suspect we'll still be at significant restrictions, but hopefully the combination of boosters, vaccination rate increases, natural immunity from infection, and a less deadly dominant strain will combine to give us a much lower mortality rate going forward.
One thing to keep in mind is that if Omicron mutates into something more deadly while keeping it's contagious behavior and still being resistant to vaccines then things could turn worse really fast too at some point in a year. That said, based on similar types of viruses historically, it doesn't seem like that's all that likely. With other similar outbreaks it kind of feels like people get exposed enough and then develop enough immunities towards it that the deadliness is less.
