Official Trade Thread - Part XLII

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Agree about Jokic's defense when it comes to the "eye-test" but its worth noting that 538's Raptor metric has Jokic as the best defender in the NBA (!): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/

I was kind of shocked when I saw that. Its worth digging into the Raptor methodology a little to see what's going on. They have a pretty thorough explanation of their methods: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/

Bascially, they have a big on/off component which they combine with a bunch of player tracking statistics. From the link above:



Fwiw, this is the same defensive metric that loves Deni Avdija. Looks like Jokic does a good job contesting shots at the very least. As for Embiid, Raptor thinks his defense is good, but not really close to Jokic.

All these points about Embiid's defense are perfectly valid -- & player comparisons can never be exact, above all between two really outstanding players.

As to Raptor, it's mystery meat, despite the "pretty thorough explanation." If I can't check a complex metric by calculating it myself (or at least knowing that the tools & methodologies are available for someone else to check it), that metric is not much help.

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

You had me until the end there. I'm one of Ben's biggest fans, but saying he's better than Embiid is a bit outrageous.

Pif, I think Simmons has more value UNTIL playoff half court game time.

Since Ben is younger and healthier....I see it your way despite Joel Embiid being a monster of a good player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

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Sweet Jesus trade Bradley Beal to Houston as soon as possible for those two and whatever else that might not include John Wall

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Embiid is a terrific player, don't get me wrong! But, he's not on a level with Jokic.

I would have argued with you about this a year ago. But I've watched a ton of Nuggets games the last two seasons, and Jokic is the real deal - even on defense. His improvement there is staggering. He's not an intimidating rim protector, but his positional defense is vastly improved. The same BBIQ that lets him rip apart defenses with savvy passing is at work there, keeping him in the right place to cut off drives, stymie secondary actions, and contest shots.

If anyone here feels like being a super basketball nerd, I warmly suggest watching a Denver match just to see how he anchors a motley crew of 6th men on the defensive end. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

Guys like Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol have demonstrated that you don't need great footspeed and athleticism to be an elite defender, as long as you are huge and have a good intuitive sense of spacing and angles.

Hey give me Robin Lopez with that hook shot. I miss that player

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Embiid is obviously a tremendous player. OTOH, after 40 games last year, Philly was 28-12. Right now, they're 19-16. & if you account for home & away games being different in number, they'd be either 1 or 2 games above .500 right now.

There's been one significant change to the team, & it wasn't Joel Embiid. They don't have their best player: Ben Simmons.

That's seriously misleading. Embiid has missed a bunch of games this season. The Sixers are 16-8 in games Embiid has played, and 3-8 without him.

Last year, the Sixers were 39-12 with Embiid playing, and 10-11 without him.

For comparison, the Sixers were 41-17 with Simmons on the court, and 7-7 without him.

You are quite correct! I should have dug a bit deeper.

Main takeaway is how good both guys are. Secondarily, part of the difference in the impact of their absences (or of any player) lies in how good the guy is who replaces one of them when he's out. 3d question would be how many of each of those players' "out" games also were with the other guy out.

All really good questions man

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

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?s=20

Well, Sabonis is a stats machine and a quality player. Aside from the issue about whether he can play PF and win - is the thing that people doubted DeRozan on - Sabonis is a poor 3 point shooter. Now, DeRozan - after years in the NBA - has overcome that stigma. Sabonis is just 25 - I could see him having that same kind of victory in his game. Dude is tremendously skilled - except for his shooting range. And I do think he's got to adjust to sticking at PF. And in order to get a quality producer like Sabonis, it will cost. Indiana's failure to win with him will make the cost reasonable, imo.

Acquire Sabonis PF andJalen Smith C and say that might just work

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Sounds like they are talking Deni/Rui and a first. All three would be absurd.

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?s=20

Well, Sabonis is a stats machine and a quality player. Aside from the issue about whether he can play PF and win - is the thing that people doubted DeRozan on - Sabonis is a poor 3 point shooter. Now, DeRozan - after years in the NBA - has overcome that stigma. Sabonis is just 25 - I could see him having that same kind of victory in his game. Dude is tremendously skilled - except for his shooting range. And I do think he's got to adjust to sticking at PF. And in order to get a quality producer like Sabonis, it will cost. Indiana's failure to win with him will make the cost reasonable, imo.

Kuzma's best position is power forward. You might as well trade him and the pick if you think you can get Sabonis. He's a hell of a player. Great passer and rebounder like his old man. Not a great defender. I'm sure Beal would love to play with him. Is he a center or power forward? We certainly can use more size and a rebounder.

I disagree wholeheartedly. Is the best best position the only conceivable fathomable decision? Voice translation error aside that guy could play shooting guard or small forward if the coach was smart enough he could even play center

Imagine a a team with four Kyle kuzma's and one Bradley Beal

Kyle kuzma knows how to hustle when he knows how to rebound and he has a lot of faults but he can definitely play small forward even if his best position is power forward

It took the Phoenix Suns to finally Smith at power forward even if Jalen Smith is a center in his best position. I have been wrong about that I've been saying dude is a power forward I was wrong... yet he cam definitely play the power forward position quite effectively depending upon who his teammates are

[NatP4]

I mean, Sabonis is one of the best players in the NBA on a great contract. That would surely cost us a fortune.

Tommy is trying to acquire every former Gonzaga player. If you can take the trash out at PF and replace it with this caliber of player, this would be a good team.

[gambitx777]

I mean, Sabonis is one of the best players in the NBA on a great contract. That would surely cost us a fortune.

Tommy is trying to acquire every former Gonzaga player. If you can take the trash out at PF and replace it with this caliber of player, this would be a good team.

I mean is he in the top 50 ? Is he even an all star this year?

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[Ruzious]

I mean, Sabonis is one of the best players in the NBA on a great contract. That would surely cost us a fortune.

Tommy is trying to acquire every former Gonzaga player. If you can take the trash out at PF and replace it with this caliber of player, this would be a good team.

I mean is he in the top 50 ? Is he even an all star this year?

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Considering he's statistically having his best season, and he's a 2-time all-star, YES... he's an all-star. And for the first time in his career, he's starting to show signs that he'll become a good 3 point shooter. He's also trending up - the 4 games in January, he's averaging 30.3 points, 9.8 boards (2 below his season average), and 6 assists a game with an absurd .794 TS%. And he's doing this while splitting time between PF and C.

[Frichuela]

I mean, Sabonis is one of the best players in the NBA on a great contract. That would surely cost us a fortune.

Tommy is trying to acquire every former Gonzaga player. If you can take the trash out at PF and replace it with this caliber of player, this would be a good team.

I mean is he in the top 50 ? Is he even an all star this year?

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Considering he's statistically having his best season, and he's a 2-time all-star, YES... he's an all-star. And for the first time in his career, he's starting to show signs that he'll become a good 3 point shooter. He's also trending up - the 4 games in January, he's averaging 30.3 points, 9.8 boards (2 below his season average), and 6 assists a game with an absurd .794 TS%. And he's doing this while splitting time between PF and C.

Agreed. As expressed here previously, and especially if the front office is adamant about keeping Beal, Sabonis should be the target at the deadline. However, I fear his stellar performance as of late means that he is out of our reach. Last night he was the best player on the floor as IND defeated UTA: 42 pts, 6 reb, 3 ass, 1 stl, 1 blk on 18/22 FGs and 3/4 from 3!

[nate33]

I mean is he in the top 50 ? Is he even an all star this year?

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Considering he's statistically having his best season, and he's a 2-time all-star, YES... he's an all-star. And for the first time in his career, he's starting to show signs that he'll become a good 3 point shooter. He's also trending up - the 4 games in January, he's averaging 30.3 points, 9.8 boards (2 below his season average), and 6 assists a game with an absurd .794 TS%. And he's doing this while splitting time between PF and C.

Agreed. As expressed here previously, and especially if the front office is adamant about keeping Beal, Sabonis should be the target at the deadline. However, I fear his stellar performance as of late means that he is out of our reach. Last night he was the best player on the floor as IND defeated UTA: 42 pts, 6 reb, 3 ass, 1 stl, 1 blk on 18/22 FGs and 3/4 from 3!

The best case scenario for a Sabonis trade would involve us sending out Rui, Harrell, Bryant and a pick. We might also need to send out Kuzma to a 3rd team in exchange for a pick and send that pick to Indy as well.

If we ended up with the following rotation, things could work out nicely.

Guards: Beal, Dinwiddie, Holiday
Wings: KCP, Kispert, Bertans
Bigs: Sabonis, Avdija, Gafford

We wouldn't be a top 3 team in the East, but we'd be in the next tier.

The tough part is that we can't really trade a 1st round pick because it is encumbered until 2025. And we are in too much danger of sucking to take those protections off the pick.

I don't see Indy doing that trade for our package. At the very least, they'd insist on Avdija.

[9 and 20]

Sabonis is really good. Indy would definitely insist on Avdija and a first. Probably Rui or Kispert, too, and maybe both. They're trying to rebuild if they trade Sabonis. The only reason they wouldn't want Gafford is they already have a young big guy.

Not sure how it would work with so many highly paid guys though - Beal, Dinwidde, Bertans, Sabonis, Kuzma, and soon Gafford. Maybe they could dump Bertans and Kuzma, but without young guys, draft picks, or cap space, they'd need to fill the roster with Raul Neto's and Anthony Gill's.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Sabonis is really good. Indy would definitely insist on Avdija and a first. Probably Rui or Kispert, too, and maybe both. They're trying to rebuild if they trade Sabonis. The only reason they wouldn't want Gafford is they already have a young big guy.

Not sure how it would work with so many highly paid guys though - Beal, Dinwidde, Bertans, Sabonis, Kuzma, and soon Gafford. Maybe they could dump Bertans and Kuzma, but without young guys, draft picks, or cap space, they'd need to fill the roster with Raul Neto's and Anthony Gill's.

Could we include Neto and Holiday and get back Brogdan?

Helps Indy’s tank.

Brogdan Dimwit
Beal KCP
Kuz Kispert
Sabonis Deni
Gafford Harrell

I want to find a way to hold on to and resign Harrell. He is a huge mismatch against most teams’ reserve bigs.

[payitforward]

The best case scenario for a Sabonis trade would involve us sending out Rui, Harrell, Bryant and a pick. We might also need to send out Kuzma to a 3rd team in exchange for a pick and send that pick to Indy as well.

If we ended up with the following rotation, things could work out nicely.

Guards: Beal, Dinwiddie, Holiday
Wings: KCP, Kispert, Bertans
Bigs: Sabonis, Avdija, Gafford

We wouldn't be a top 3 team in the East, but we'd be in the next tier.

The tough part is that we can't really trade a 1st round pick because it is encumbered until 2025. And we are in too much danger of sucking to take those protections off the pick....

Sabonis is a terrific player. But...

...this all sounds like ways to enhance a team built around Bradley Beal. Meaning that we would keep him. Meaning (I assume) that we would give him the supermax.

In that case, the 9 guys you list above, nate, cost us over $140m next year. We'd have Todd, we could keep Gill, & we'd also have a r1 pick rookie (b/c, as you say, we can't trade our '22 R1 pick). That adds @$7m & takes us to 12 players. Presumably, we fill out w/ veteran minimum guys & maybe an undrafted player. Which takes us to just over $150m.

Maybe I have this wrong. Otherwise, I'm hard pressed to see anything here that's worth doing.

[NatP4]

It would be a really fun team, but rebuilding and moving Beal is just a smarter path IMO. We need our pick to end up top 10 as well. Paying the supermax to Beal just isn’t an option.

[nate33]

The best case scenario for a Sabonis trade would involve us sending out Rui, Harrell, Bryant and a pick. We might also need to send out Kuzma to a 3rd team in exchange for a pick and send that pick to Indy as well.

If we ended up with the following rotation, things could work out nicely.

Guards: Beal, Dinwiddie, Holiday
Wings: KCP, Kispert, Bertans
Bigs: Sabonis, Avdija, Gafford

We wouldn't be a top 3 team in the East, but we'd be in the next tier.

The tough part is that we can't really trade a 1st round pick because it is encumbered until 2025. And we are in too much danger of sucking to take those protections off the pick....

Sabonis is a terrific player. But...

...this all sounds like ways to enhance a team built around Bradley Beal. Meaning that we would keep him. Meaning (I assume) that we would give him the supermax.

In that case, the 9 guys you list above, nate, cost us over $140m next year. We'd have Todd, we could keep Gill, & we'd also have a r1 pick rookie (b/c, as you say, we can't trade our '22 R1 pick). That adds @$7m & takes us to 12 players. Presumably, we fill out w/ veteran minimum guys & maybe an undrafted player. Which takes us to just over $150m.

Maybe I have this wrong. Otherwise, I'm hard pressed to see anything here that's worth doing.

I don't see the problem. Those guys are nowhere near $140M.

Beal $42M
Sabonis $20M
Dinwiddie $18M
Bertans $16M
KCP $14M
Avdija $5M
Kispert $3.5M
Gafford $2M
Holiday ?

That's just $121M plus Holiday. The luxtax will be something like $145M

Sabonis is under contract at $20M per until Summer 2024
Gafford gets a big pay raise in Summer 2023, tacking on another $10M, but that's still under the cap.

Things change a great deal in 2024 when Sabonis and Avdija are up for new contracts. But Bertans can be bought out for $5M if he hasn't already been moved, and Dinwiddie will be off the books.

[nate33]

It would be a really fun team, but rebuilding and moving Beal is just a smarter path IMO. We need our pick to end up top 10 as well. Paying the supermax to Beal just isn’t an option.

Yes, of course moving Beal and rebuilding is smarter. I'm just looking for decent options given the likelihood that the team will never even consider trading Beal.

[NatP4]

It would be a really fun team, but rebuilding and moving Beal is just a smarter path IMO. We need our pick to end up top 10 as well. Paying the supermax to Beal just isn’t an option.

Yes, of course moving Beal and rebuilding is smarter. I'm just looking for decent options given the likelihood that the team will never even consider trading Beal.

It’s not a bad option, but we would still need major help at guard and to rid ourselves of Kuzma. Would Dallas move soon to be UFA Jalen Brunson for Harrell?

Sabonis is way better at the 5 and that would free up some room on the depth chart.

Dinwiddie Brunson
Beal Brunson
KCP Kispert
Avdija Bertans
Sabonis Gafford

[nate33]

It would be a really fun team, but rebuilding and moving Beal is just a smarter path IMO. We need our pick to end up top 10 as well. Paying the supermax to Beal just isn’t an option.

Yes, of course moving Beal and rebuilding is smarter. I'm just looking for decent options given the likelihood that the team will never even consider trading Beal.

It’s not a bad option, but we would still need major help at guard and to rid ourselves of Kuzma. Would Dallas move soon to be UFA Jalen Brunson for Harrell?

Sabonis is way better at the 5 and that would free up some room on the depth chart.

Dinwiddie Brunson
Beal Brunson
KCP Kispert
Avdija Bertans
Sabonis Gafford

I'm assuming it would necessary to extract and consolidate all the value out of Bryant, Harrell, Kuzma and Rui in order to trade for Sabonis in the first place. None of them would still be around to trade for Brunson. (Also, Brunson will soon be too expensive to pay as a 3rd guard.)

[nate33]

Saw this on the Trade Board:

https://www.phillyvoice.com/sixers-ben-simmons-trade-rumors-joel-embiid-tyrese-haliburton-deaaron-fox-analysis-latest/

"Use the Kings as an example. Sacramento is now reportedly open to making De’Aaron Fox and/or Tyrese Haliburton available in the right deals, and those aren’t equal propositions for Philadelphia. In all likelihood, sources say, a deal involving Fox would almost certainly have to be a three-team deal, moving Fox to another party in order to get what the Sixers think they need. And while the Sixers like Haliburton and feel good about his potential fit, the sense is he’s not at the level they’re after for a primary piece in return for Simmons, that the Iowa State product would need to be one part in a more extravagant return."

"Tyrese Maxey’s emergence looms large in all of this, with Philadelphia seeing redundancy between Maxey and players like Fox, preferring to keep rolling with the hard-working kid they already have in-house."

This is screaming out to involve the Wizards and Beal in a 3-way trade:

Beal to Philly
Simmons to Sacramento
Fox and Haliburton to Washington

EDIT:
Hmmm. Sacramento might be giving up too much here.

How about:
Beal to Philly
Simmons to SAC
Hield, Haliburton and a SAC 1st to Washington