Thoughts in General, Rumors, etc 4.0

[shrink]

I think it’s always best to listen to the podcast, rather than a one-sentence quote from a reporter trying to appeal to their own local fans. Darren Wolfson suggests a much wider net.

“Myles Turner, very much in the Wolves mix. They have talked to Indiana. Not an easy trade to actually complete though. Ben Simmons of Philadelphia remains squarely on the Wolves radar. The Wolves would love, like many months ago, to acquire Ben Simmons. Easier said than done, but it’s not like it’s Myles Turner or bust, Ben Simmons or bust. Sachin Gupta has communicated with a number of teams to upgrade the front court. Heck he just wants to upgrade talent. He is looking for a way for the team to not just make the play in, but advance past the play in.”

I would also remind posters that Sachin Gupta should be a very motivated trader. He has the interim title, and would love for ARod and Lore to make that permanent, so I suspect he’ll try hard to make a trade with someone.

EDIT: Windhorst mentioned that several teams have been interested in Josh Okogie.

[Scoot McGroot]

Hawks would just keep Reddish...(I've seen Okogie for Dieng offered in different trades here, so no way the Hawks do this with Reddish). Okogie offers nothing on offense.

Gallinari - Derrick Favors or Thad Young

When I saw the deal, I also thought that Reddish is worth more in a vacuum than a one-way defensive Okogie (not that Reddish’s poor defense makes him two way, but …). Fortunately, 17-21 ATL would pair Okogie with Tre Young, who is RAPTOR’s best NBA player offensively and one of it’s worst defensively. The Hawks are 26th in Def Rtg, so with Tre Young, the Hawks need a defensive option who doesn’t use a lot of FGA’s - though I see Tre’s passing working with Okogie cuts to the rim. They don’t need Cam Reddish duplicating skills they already have in better players. Unfortunately, the Wolves don’t need Cam either (rather have Nowell than pay Cam $6 mil next year), and I don’t see many teams that look at him and say, “we need that guy.” I could see MIN including a 2nd, but I don’t think there is a real market for either player - just a better fit for Okogie in ATL.

As for Gallo, he is a slightly negative contract. I hope we can all agree he is not producing at a $20.5 mil rate this year, and next year he is $5 mil for zero production (hopefully set off lowers this). A move should be for another slightly bad contract. I liked the idea of Favors on a two year deal ($9.7/$10.2), but Pesti isn’t going to just give up $11 mil in cap space to make that swap, and I don’t see who they can add - this deal would need lots of incentive. With Thad Young at $14.2, I don’t know who the Spurs would add after a cursory glance. Good targets, but it would just take a more complicated deal. I don’t read all the Trades here any more, so I’m curious what others have come up with for Gallo?

Gallo, Reddish for Kenrich

Why now? Why not just wait until the offseason and Gallo and cash or 2nds to OKC and OKC waives him for his $5m guarantee?

[cl2117]

When I saw the deal, I also thought that Reddish is worth more in a vacuum than a one-way defensive Okogie (not that Reddish’s poor defense makes him two way, but …). Fortunately, 17-21 ATL would pair Okogie with Tre Young, who is RAPTOR’s best NBA player offensively and one of it’s worst defensively. The Hawks are 26th in Def Rtg, so with Tre Young, the Hawks need a defensive option who doesn’t use a lot of FGA’s - though I see Tre’s passing working with Okogie cuts to the rim. They don’t need Cam Reddish duplicating skills they already have in better players. Unfortunately, the Wolves don’t need Cam either (rather have Nowell than pay Cam $6 mil next year), and I don’t see many teams that look at him and say, “we need that guy.” I could see MIN including a 2nd, but I don’t think there is a real market for either player - just a better fit for Okogie in ATL.

As for Gallo, he is a slightly negative contract. I hope we can all agree he is not producing at a $20.5 mil rate this year, and next year he is $5 mil for zero production (hopefully set off lowers this). A move should be for another slightly bad contract. I liked the idea of Favors on a two year deal ($9.7/$10.2), but Pesti isn’t going to just give up $11 mil in cap space to make that swap, and I don’t see who they can add - this deal would need lots of incentive. With Thad Young at $14.2, I don’t know who the Spurs would add after a cursory glance. Good targets, but it would just take a more complicated deal. I don’t read all the Trades here any more, so I’m curious what others have come up with for Gallo?

Gallo, Reddish for Kenrich

Why now? Why not just wait until the offseason and Gallo and cash or 2nds to OKC and OKC waives him for his $5m guarantee?

I may be mistaken, but I believe you have to guarantee the full $21m in order to trade him.

[Texas Chuck]

I may be mistaken, but I believe you have to guarantee the full $21m in order to trade him.

CBA guys will know for sure, but I think you can trade him but only his $5M gtd could be used in matching salary if the entire thing isn't guaranteed. It was the loophole the league closed as teams were giving players non-gtd final years to turn them into a tradable TPE essentially. This is famously how Dallas got Tyson Chandler in 2010 for instance.

[Devilanche]

I remember reading that you need to guarantee the portion you used for salary matching so if somehow salary match minimally need more than the 5m . Whichever team that receive him have to guarantee that additional portion as well.

[Resistance]

85. What is the Traded Player exception?

A player's trade value is typically the same as his Team Salary amount, but there are situations where the outgoing value can be different:

* For contracts signed under the current CBA, the outgoing salary for trade purposes only includes earned or guaranteed base salary -- it does not include any unearned salary that is not guaranteed for lack of skill or injury/illness (see question number 63). For example, in a contract signed in 2018 with a base salary of $10 million with $6 million guaranteed for lack of skill, the player's outgoing salary for trade purposes would be $6 million (as long as he hadn't already earned more than $6 million of his salary). Starting January 10 all base salary becomes fully guaranteed for the remainder of that season, so the player's full base salary is used for trade purposes. After a team's season ends (and through June 30), they use the lesser of the full salary for the current season and the guaranteed base salary for the upcoming season.

* For contracts and extensions signed under the previous CBA, they use the player's base salary and likely bonuses (not unlikely bonuses), without regard to whether the salary is guaranteed.

* For a minimum-salary player with more than two years in the league and playing on a one-year contract, the minimum salary for a two-year player is used.

* For players who were subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision (see question number 43), the cap amount for the trading team is used, which may be either the actual salary or average salary for the contract.

* For sign-and-trade transactions (see question number 92), the outgoing salary for players who are subject to what was previously referred to as Base Year Compensation is either the previous salary or 50% of the new salary, whichever is greater (see question number 93).

* Two-way players have an outgoing trade value of $0.

**************************

63. Are contracts always guaranteed?

There are only a few specific types of contracts that must be guaranteed. All other guarantees are a matter of individual negotiation between the player and team. In practice, the majority of NBA contracts (especially for established veterans) are fully guaranteed. Non-guaranteed salary is most often used for fringe players (either at the beginning or end of their careers) or for the later years of long-term contracts (often in conjunction with benchmarks that allow the salary to become fully guaranteed over time).

Only a player's base salary can be guaranteed -- not bonuses or incentives. The percentage of base salary that is guaranteed cannot increase from one year to the next (e.g., if 50% of a player's salary is guaranteed one season, then no more than 50% can be guaranteed in any subsequent season of the contract).

There are actually several types of guarantees:

* Lack of skill: A "catch-all" that means the player cannot play well enough to justify remaining on the team.

* Death: The player dies while under contract.

* Basketball-related injury: The player cannot render his playing services as a direct result of an injury sustained while playing or practicing for the team.

* Injury/illness: The player cannot render his playing services as a direct result of any illness or injury, whether or not it was basketball related.

* Mental disability: The player cannot render his playing services as a direct result of a mental disability.

Each type of guarantee is independently negotiated, so, for example, a contract might be fully guaranteed for injury or illness, but not for mental disability. Players do not qualify if their condition was caused by participation in a prohibited activity (for example, skydiving), attempted suicide or self-inflicted injury, alcohol or substance abuse, commission of a felony, not complying with the terms of his contract, etc.

Some salaries are only partially guaranteed, and/or the guaranteed amount can change based on certain conditions. For example, the salary in the final season of a player's contract might be unprotected for lack of skill, with the protection changing to full if the team has not requested waivers on the player (see question number 64) prior to the team's first regular season game of that season1.

[Scoot McGroot]

OKC will have the cap space to bridge the Gallo gap to be able to absorb his larger cap number, so it doesn’t matter.

[NYG]

I think we will see a lot of activity around mid-level guys getting traded right at the deadline.

I think teams are going play chicken with Morey down to the wire on Simmons and then change course at the deadline if it's not there.

The Catch-22 of the deadline is Morey only wants to trade Simmons if it's with incentive like Maxey, Thybulle and/or picks and he's getting the best player on the trade market. The problem is Ben Simmons IS the best player on the trade market pre-draft lottery. This means technically he isn't the best player on the trade market if he's only available for a better player that isn't out there. Once teams realize this, the activity will move fast IMO.

One of the Indy bigs, Jerami Grant, Mo Bamba, Christian Wood, etc. are probably the kind of names we'll see moved in the end, but I expect 20+ trades mixed with guys of that caliber, cap saving movings and some lower level roster balancing once the 76ers realize they won't get their guy pre-deadline and other teams then realize they can't get Simmons.

[NYG]

When I saw the deal, I also thought that Reddish is worth more in a vacuum than a one-way defensive Okogie (not that Reddish’s poor defense makes him two way, but …). Fortunately, 17-21 ATL would pair Okogie with Tre Young, who is RAPTOR’s best NBA player offensively and one of it’s worst defensively. The Hawks are 26th in Def Rtg, so with Tre Young, the Hawks need a defensive option who doesn’t use a lot of FGA’s - though I see Tre’s passing working with Okogie cuts to the rim. They don’t need Cam Reddish duplicating skills they already have in better players. Unfortunately, the Wolves don’t need Cam either (rather have Nowell than pay Cam $6 mil next year), and I don’t see many teams that look at him and say, “we need that guy.” I could see MIN including a 2nd, but I don’t think there is a real market for either player - just a better fit for Okogie in ATL.

As for Gallo, he is a slightly negative contract. I hope we can all agree he is not producing at a $20.5 mil rate this year, and next year he is $5 mil for zero production (hopefully set off lowers this). A move should be for another slightly bad contract. I liked the idea of Favors on a two year deal ($9.7/$10.2), but Pesti isn’t going to just give up $11 mil in cap space to make that swap, and I don’t see who they can add - this deal would need lots of incentive. With Thad Young at $14.2, I don’t know who the Spurs would add after a cursory glance. Good targets, but it would just take a more complicated deal. I don’t read all the Trades here any more, so I’m curious what others have come up with for Gallo?

Gallo, Reddish for Kenrich

Why now? Why not just wait until the offseason and Gallo and cash or 2nds to OKC and OKC waives him for his $5m guarantee?

The contract becomes guaranteed when traded so it would make more cap sense for OKC to do it now and have the option of waiving him.

Gallo and Reddish for Kenrich and Favors? Who says no?

[HartfordWhalers]

The contract doesn’t automatically become guaranteed.

[MoneyTalks41890]

The NG portion just doesn’t count for match purposes, but OKC has the space so they wouldn’t have to worry about it. Gallo next year at 20+ with 5m gtd, OKC sends back something small, so ATL wouldn’t need high matching salary going out and OKC absorbs the difference. I think the TPE would still be full going to ATL but that’s the part I’m not sure about.

[HartfordWhalers]

The NG portion just doesn’t count for match purposes, but OKC has the space so they wouldn’t have to worry about it. Gallo next year at 20+ with 5m gtd, OKC sends back something small, so ATL wouldn’t need high matching salary going out and OKC absorbs the difference. I think the TPE would still be full going to ATL but that’s the part I’m not sure about.

TPE is based off the 5m, as that is Atlanta’s ‘outgoing’.

[MoneyTalks41890]

The NG portion just doesn’t count for match purposes, but OKC has the space so they wouldn’t have to worry about it. Gallo next year at 20+ with 5m gtd, OKC sends back something small, so ATL wouldn’t need high matching salary going out and OKC absorbs the difference. I think the TPE would still be full going to ATL but that’s the part I’m not sure about.

TPE is based off the 5m, as that is Atlanta’s ‘outgoing’.

Oh that’s a bummer but that makes sense

[Scoot McGroot]

Gallo, Reddish for Kenrich

Why now? Why not just wait until the offseason and Gallo and cash or 2nds to OKC and OKC waives him for his $5m guarantee?

The contract becomes guaranteed when traded so it would make more cap sense for OKC to do it now and have the option of waiving him.

Gallo and Reddish for Kenrich and Favors? Who says no?

First, a contract doesn’t automatically become guaranteed if traded. Only the guaranteed portion counts for salary matching rules, so sometimes, teams have to guarantee more of the contract to work legally. In this case, OKC, depending on what they do at the deadline, would have their TPE’s expire and have plenty of cap space to absorb Gallo’s contract at the draft, and still waive him before his June 29 guarantee date.

I would think Atlanta would say no, as they’re not saving money by swapping Gallo’s $5m guarantee for Favors $10m-ish salary. Would think you could hold Reddish out at least, in order to have a conversation on that idea.

[Mamba4Goat]

Philly in: Collins, McCollum
Philly out: Simmons, Harris, 1st

Hawks in: Simmons
Hawks out: Collins, asset

Blazers in: Harris, Philly 1st, Hawks asset
Blazers out: McCollum

What does that asset need to be? Is it as simple as sending the Philly first to Atlanta and sending Reddish to Portland?

[Blazinaway]

Philly in: Collins, McCollum
Philly out: Simmons, Harris, 1st

Hawks in: Simmons
Hawks out: Collins, asset

Blazers in: Harris, Philly 1st, Hawks asset
Blazers out: McCollum

What does that asset need to be? Is it as simple as sending the Philly first to Atlanta and sending Reddish to Portland?

Interesting idea, however I think POR would much prefer Collins to Harris but don't think Atl would want CJ. Was trying to think of a CJ/Roco or CJ/Nance trade to ATL for Collins and Gallo (or someone else?), may need a 3rd team.

[LAL1947]

The Knicks are gonna miss out on the playoffs... unless, they make a move that helps bring out the best in Randle, Barrett, etc (who aren't top tier talent... but are hard workers who can be better than they are with the right orchestrator at PG).

So...! Brunson for Dallas 2023 pick back + Jericho Sims seems really fair to me... for these reasons:

1) Brunson has really upped his game and is playing like Luka-Lite.
2) Kemba is washed. Rose and Quickley just aren't that sort of PG.
3) Signing Brunson is a personal desire of Leon Rose (Brunson Sr. was Rose's first client).
4) Brunson will be UFA in the summer... but let's not forget about this season and revenue from making the playoffs.
5) Sims is not of value to NY because their other bigs (Randle, Robinson, Noel, Taj) need a different type of player (i.e., a floor spacer) next to them for there to be efficiency.

For Dallas, after trading Brunson, they can FINALLY do a proper tank (instead of flattering to deceive every now and then with purple patches, then flaming out in the 1st round of the playoffs)... plus they get their 2023 pick back... and a young but questionable project 5/4 to play next to Porzingis/Kleber. Using the 2022 pick, 2023 pick and other players, they can attempt to upgrade the SG and SF positions. Ideally, Dallas should keep Brunson, but Dallas is piss-poor in terms of trade-able assets and Brunson is one of the few they have.... so beggars can't be choosers.

I'd really like to see this trade happen because I think it benefits every team and player involved.

[Fitz303]

Harris is a poor fit for Portland. McCollum should be able to return a better fit to the Blazers roster than Harris. If that's not possible, it'd be better to shed salary through multiple lower salary players in return for CJ. Harris doesn't help put Portland into a higher tier and he doesn't help tank the rest of this season. There are better options for Portland out there.

[LAL1947]

Harris is a poor fit for Portland. McCollum should be able to return a better fit to the Blazers roster than Harris. If that's not possible, it'd be better to shed salary through multiple lower salary players in return for CJ. Harris doesn't help put Portland into a higher tier and he doesn't help tank the rest of this season. There are better options for Portland out there.

Tobias is one of the worst contracts in the league IMO... all that cash for someone who is little more than a JAG. Anyway, you're right that Tobias is redundant to Portland since they have Nance and RoCo. Yet while there may be better options for Portland out there (can't think of any realistic ones myself), I think McCollum is a worse contract than Tobias... all that cash for a smaller + older someone who is little more than a JAG.

[b33nine]

Philly in: Collins, McCollum
Philly out: Simmons, Harris, 1st

Hawks in: Simmons
Hawks out: Collins, asset

Blazers in: Harris, Philly 1st, Hawks asset
Blazers out: McCollum

What does that asset need to be? Is it as simple as sending the Philly first to Atlanta and sending Reddish to Portland?

As much as I hate the idea of doing Harris for CJ, getting a late 1st and Reddish to ease the pain would probably make me agree to the deal.