The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[Frichuela]

From the same article:

Kuzma has made 12 clutch 3-pointers so far this season — four more than any other player. Kuzma’s plus-42 in 73 clutch minutes is the fourth-best plus/minus of any player so far this season as the Wizards own a league-best 15-3 record in clutch games. Kuzma’s 78.6% effective field goal percentage is the best among the 55 players with at least 20 clutch shot attempts.

Which leads to the question - is this repeatable? And I think the stat experts - really in every sport - would say no. In that case, our record in close games is probably going to decline, and we're probably not going to win games at the rate we have and should adjust expectations accordingly - unless... others pick up the slack for Kuzma's inevitable decline in clutchatude.

Which leads to another question: should we trade Kuzma at the deadline if we believe his performance is due to decline? In particular, if (and big if) Rui is back for good.

[nate33]

From the same article:

Kuzma has made 12 clutch 3-pointers so far this season — four more than any other player. Kuzma’s plus-42 in 73 clutch minutes is the fourth-best plus/minus of any player so far this season as the Wizards own a league-best 15-3 record in clutch games. Kuzma’s 78.6% effective field goal percentage is the best among the 55 players with at least 20 clutch shot attempts.

Which leads to the question - is this repeatable? And I think the stat experts - really in every sport - would say no. In that case, our record in close games is probably going to decline, and we're probably not going to win games at the rate we have and should adjust expectations accordingly - unless... others pick up the slack for Kuzma's inevitable decline in clutchatude.

Which leads to another question: should we trade Kuzma at the deadline if we believe his performance is due to decline? In particular, if (and big if) Rui is back for good.

Exactly. Clutchness inevitably reverts to mean.

Kuzma should be evaluated on his actual production over 48 minutes, and our expectation of future production due to his work ethic, athleticism, and basketball IQ. His recent clutchness should not be a factor at all. It absolutely will not continue in the long run.

[doclinkin]

Thing is - Do we know what the real Kyle Kuzma is? Even with this insane 4 game streak, statistically he's what he's always been - an average player who's shooting 44% and just 34% from 3 - he'll get you 15 points, 9 boards, and 3 assists per game. I think his improvement is based on his shot selection; his shots are now mostly either layups or 3's. He knows his efficiency is poor in the mid-range, and it's lazy for him to rely on it.

In the meantime, if we get an offer for him based on his current streak and his clutch stats, gotta consider it - especially if they think Rui is a major part of their future.

The thing about Kuzma is it seems year after year like he reaches his averages BY being streaky. What drove LA nuts was his ability to show promise then fall short. For all that he is an 'average' player he has more than a dozen 30 point games. Some nights his shots drop. Some nights he plays like he really is the Kuzma that he thinks he is, sometimes he's more Kuzious. The trick for a player with potential is whether they can show consistency in a good way. Can they string together a few games of star play, then figure out how they are doing that and sustain it. The thing that suggests that maybe Kuz has turned a corner is his rebounding the past couple years. This year in particular. He has taken on the role of the 'go get it' guy and regularly posts double digit boards. You don't earn that by being disengaged or lazy. I also see how he has taken on some of the in game mannerisms of LeBJ. In particular his assist% have ticked upwards. He seems to see himself as a veteran now. A leader type.

New coach, new team, taking on leadership role after being mentored by a HOFer. It's not inconceivable that he does haul his averages up, streak by streak to an all around above average player. His rebounding in particular is better than solid. Among the top 5 rebounding forwards in the league.

[payitforward]

Which leads to the question - is this repeatable? And I think the stat experts - really in every sport - would say no. In that case, our record in close games is probably going to decline, and we're probably not going to win games at the rate we have and should adjust expectations accordingly - unless... others pick up the slack for Kuzma's inevitable decline in clutchatude.

Which leads to another question: should we trade Kuzma at the deadline if we believe his performance is due to decline? In particular, if (and big if) Rui is back for good.

Exactly. Clutchness inevitably reverts to mean.

Kuzma should be evaluated on his actual production over 48 minutes, and our expectation of future production due to his work ethic, athleticism, and basketball IQ. His recent clutchness should not be a factor at all. It absolutely will not continue in the long run.

Absolutely! For that matter, "if... Rui is back for good," he too "should be evaluated on his actual production over 48 minutes...."

Might be interesting to compare the two guys' production -- either last year or Kuzma this year vs. Rui last year.

Better yet, Kuzma's first 2 years compared to Rui's first 2.

[Ruzious]

Kuzma's first 2 years were solid spent on bad Lakers teams, but then they added a couple of decent players named Lebron James and Anthony Davis - so all of a sudden Kuz played on a Championship team, and his role required less production. Most players stats progress in their 3rd and 4th seasons, but his decreased because of the addition of the 2 future first ballot HOFers. This season (season 5), he's in line with his first 2 seasons, but he hasn't yet shown he's going to break through that rookie year barrier. At 26, the odds are probably against him being more than a solid player, but we shall see.

[payitforward]

Okay, I'm just doing that.

As rookies, the 2 guys' numbers were pretty similar. Kuzma was a better scorer, posting @2.7 more points per 40 minutes at a higher TS% than Rui's. Their rebounding was similar, but Rui gets the edge for having a higher rate of offensive boards. Kuzma turned the ball over a little more than Rui. Overall, Rui was a bit better rookie, (though neither was particularly good).

Both guys were worse overall their 2d year than their first, but Kuzma slipped a little more than Rui did. Overall, Rui was better his first two years than Kuzma was in his first two.

Then Kuzma had an awful 3d year -- hope that doesn't happen to Rui! But, last year -- his 4th -- Kyle had by far his best season. He's down from that a little this season.

[payitforward]

Kuzma's first 2 years were solid spent on bad Lakers teams, but then they added a couple of decent players named Lebron James and Anthony Davis - so all of a sudden Kuz played on a Championship team, and his role required less production. Most players stats progress in their 3rd and 4th seasons, but his decreased because of the addition of the 2 future first ballot HOFers. This season (season 5), he's in line with his first 2 seasons, but he hasn't yet shown he's going to break through that rookie year barrier. At 26, the odds are probably against him being more than a solid player, but we shall see.

I'd say this is incorrect, Ruz. True of his 3d year, which was just awful. But, his 4th year (2d w/ LeBron & Davis) his defensive boards were up, his offensive boards were up, his assists were up, his turnovers were down, & both his 3 pt. & 2 pt. %s were up. Overall it was his best year by a fair amount.

Both last year & this year so far Kuzma's numbers are significantly better than his rookie year as well. There was no rookie year barrier, IOW.

[payitforward]

...they added a couple of decent players named Lebron James and Anthony Davis - so all of a sudden Kuz played on a Championship team, and his role required less production....

His role required him to shoot less. But it didn't require him to shoot a lower % !! It didn't require him to get fewer rebounds either.

No one's role requires him to get worse as a player.

Now... his first year w/ LeBron/Davis he was awful, so clearly there was an adjustment for him!

[Ruzious]

Kuzma's first 2 years were solid spent on bad Lakers teams, but then they added a couple of decent players named Lebron James and Anthony Davis - so all of a sudden Kuz played on a Championship team, and his role required less production. Most players stats progress in their 3rd and 4th seasons, but his decreased because of the addition of the 2 future first ballot HOFers. This season (season 5), he's in line with his first 2 seasons, but he hasn't yet shown he's going to break through that rookie year barrier. At 26, the odds are probably against him being more than a solid player, but we shall see.

I'd say this is incorrect, Ruz. True of his 3d year, which was just awful. But, his 4th year (2d w/ LeBron & Davis) his defensive boards were up, his offensive boards were up, his assists were up, his turnovers were down, & both his 3 pt. & 2 pt. %s were up. Overall it was his best year by a fair amount.

Both last year & this year so far Kuzma's numbers are significantly better than his rookie year as well. There was no rookie year barrier, IOW.

Lol, I could have predicted this because when we have these differences, it almost always has something to do with you not valuing scoring as much as I do. His scoring went way down in year 4. I see you accidentally left out that his FTA's dropped by 50% in year 4, and he scored 56% fewer points from the foul line. His scoring this year is similar to season 4, but his rebounding has increased. Just look at his PER from year 1 through year 5: 14.2, 14.0, 12.2, 12.7, and 13.9. His scoring efficiency hasn't changed much his entire career; with his TS% varying from .531 to .549. His to's have been the exact same 2.1 per 36 every single year. His first 2 years were clearly statistically better than his 3rd and 4th. Year 5 has gotten him essentially back to year 1, so far.

[payitforward]

PER is a meaningless statistic -- if you take more shots, your PER goes up. You don't even have to make them.

His FTAs went down in '20-21 for the reason you cite -- he wasn't creating w/ the ball in his hands (b/c LeBron/Davis had tamed him). Since he wasn't very effective creating off the dribble, this actually improved him! OTOH, his rebounds went up a lot.

In the end, this is all pretty minor. Overall, Kyle Kuzma isn't a particularly good player -- though he's made some clutch buckets this year. & he's an entertaining guy.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Every time I hear Kuz, I think “cooze,” which makes me think of:

[start it at 1:00 in]

Watch on YouTube

Thank you so much for posting this! Man,I love this kind of stuff!

[bubba hotep]

He's not quite the caliber of defender, but can anyone convince me Kuzma isn't Rasheed Wallace-lite? Is that an archetype we could use to further develop Kuzma's role with the team? I've got to say I personally am convinced he's better than Rui, and I love Rui.

[CobraCommander]

I gotta admit Kuz (and Trez) are worth paying to see play ball. Kuz was a monster in the Chicago Derozen heartbreaker and again against Orlando... he just makes some awkward yet awesome plays. With our roster being this deep- if we get better point play and consistent All NBA play from Beal we win half the games we lost recently

[Halcyon]

I've loved his aggression to take it to the basket. Pretty good touch around the basket and he's hard to stop with his size. His outside shot is very streaky but maybe he's unlocked something with this extended opportunity.

[FAH1223]

When Kuz plays like he’s 6’10” good things happen.

When he tries to be a guard, it’s a disaster.

Him pushing the ball off rebounds is great. I wish he was a better passer but he’s clearly trying to learn the no looks and fancy dishes.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

When Kuz plays like he’s 6’10” good things happen.

When he tries to be a guard, it’s a disaster.

Him pushing the ball off rebounds is great. I wish he was a better passer but he’s clearly trying to learn the no looks and fancy dishes.

Yep. I think his biggest issue is falling in love with jumpers.

[Ruzious]

PER is a meaningless statistic -- if you take more shots, your PER goes up. You don't even have to make them.

His FTAs went down in '20-21 for the reason you cite -- he wasn't creating w/ the ball in his hands (b/c LeBron/Davis had tamed him). Since he wasn't very effective creating off the dribble, this actually improved him! OTOH, his rebounds went up a lot.

In the end, this is all pretty minor. Overall, Kyle Kuzma isn't a particularly good player -- though he's made some clutch buckets this year. & he's an entertaining guy.

PER is so misunderstood...

PER takes into account accomplishments, such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative results, such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls. The formula adds positive stats and subtracts negative ones through a statistical point value system. The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis so that, for example, substitutes can be compared with starters in playing time debates. It is also adjusted for the team's pace. In the end, one number sums up the players' statistical accomplishments for that season.

PER has been said to reward inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.

Hollinger responded via a post on ESPN's TrueHoop blog:

Berri leads off with a huge misunderstanding of PER—that the credits and debits it gives for making and missing shots equate to a “break-even” shooting mark of 30.4% on 2-point shots. He made this assumption because he forgot that PER is calibrated against the rest of the league at the end of the formula.

Actually, if we took a player that was completely average in every other respect for the 2006–07 season—rebounds, free throws, assists, turnovers, etc.—and gave him a league-average rate of shots, and all of them were 2-pointers, and he shot 30.4%, he'd end up with a PER of 7.18. As long-time PER fans know, that would make him considerably worse than nearly every player in the league.

To end up with a league-average PER of 15.00, the actual break-even mark in this case is 48.5%, which is exactly what the league average is on 2-point shots this season.

The main problem with PER is that it just uses steals and blocks for defensive effect - which I believe you also do.

[nate33]

Hollinger responded via a post on ESPN's TrueHoop blog:

Berri leads off with a huge misunderstanding of PER—that the credits and debits it gives for making and missing shots equate to a “break-even” shooting mark of 30.4% on 2-point shots. He made this assumption because he forgot that PER is calibrated against the rest of the league at the end of the formula.

Actually, if we took a player that was completely average in every other respect for the 2006–07 season—rebounds, free throws, assists, turnovers, etc.—and gave him a league-average rate of shots, and all of them were 2-pointers, and he shot 30.4%, he'd end up with a PER of 7.18. As long-time PER fans know, that would make him considerably worse than nearly every player in the league.

To end up with a league-average PER of 15.00, the actual break-even mark in this case is 48.5%, which is exactly what the league average is on 2-point shots this season.

The main problem with PER is that it just uses steals and blocks for defensive effect - which I believe you also do.

Great find, Ruzious! I had bought into the criticism of PER, but it appears that Hollinger has a point.

PER isn't perfect, but this disproves the notion that it is terrible. It's greatest strength is that by normalizing the average each year to 15, it becomes a very good tool to compare between eras, effectively accounting for the rule changes.

It's tough to compare Jokic to, say, Patrick Ewing, but PER tells us that Jokic is outplaying his peers today under the current rules to a greater degree than Patrick Ewing outplayed his peers under 1980's rules.

[CobraCommander]

When Kuz plays like he’s 6’10” good things happen.

When he tries to be a guard, it’s a disaster.

Him pushing the ball off rebounds is great. I wish he was a better passer but he’s clearly trying to learn the no looks and fancy dishes.

Yep. I think his biggest issue is falling in love with jumpers.

How many of these accursed jumpers have been clutch? Kuz ain’t perfect but who has made more clutch jumpers this year 6’10” Kuz or 6’2” Beal? I’ll hang up and listen

[FAH1223]

When Kuz plays like he’s 6’10” good things happen.

When he tries to be a guard, it’s a disaster.

Him pushing the ball off rebounds is great. I wish he was a better passer but he’s clearly trying to learn the no looks and fancy dishes.

Yep. I think his biggest issue is falling in love with jumpers.

How many of these accursed jumpers have been clutch? Kuz ain’t perfect but who has made more clutch jumpers this year 6’10” Kuz or 6’2” Beal? I’ll hang up and listen

If they're catch and shoot jumpers in the 4th quarter its fine.

If its him putting the rock on the floor, dancing, then takes jump shots... he is a terrible player.